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    Gavekal Research

    The US-China Economic Rivalry Is About To Heat Up

    Economic conflict between the US and China was the dog that didn’t bark in 2017. This year it has begun to bark loudly and will soon bite deeply. The short-term macroeconomic consequences will be modest, beyond putting more downward pressure on the dollar. But the potential long-run impact on trade and investment flows, and on power relations in the Asia-Pacific, could be large.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call January 2018

    In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair. Arthur Kroeber updated his view on China’s likely impact on global commodity markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Everything Looks Fine, But…

    The year has opened with growth expectations and risk appetites at their highest levels in years. The consensus is probably right that it will be a good year for economies and stock markets. The main thing to watch out for is a faster-than-expected withdrawal of QE and low-interest rate policies by the ECB and the BOJ, which could send US bond yields sharply higher.

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    Gavekal Research

    One More Cheerful Year In China

    A key driver of the synchronized global economic pickup and attendant rally in risk assets has been China’s shift from deflation to reflation. In 2018, a key question is whether China can sustain growth while containing financial risk. Arthur thinks it can easily do so, and in this paper outlines the reasons why.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China 20/20

    In this final issue of China Economic Quarterly, an all-star cast of contributors takes a look back at how the country has changed since 1997, and a look forward at how China, and its global impact, might evolve in the next couple of decades. The basic lesson is that it has never paid to underestimate China’s growth potential and capacity for change.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Good Few Decades, But Not A ‘Chinese Century’

    The China Economic Quarterly will cease publication with this issue, which also marks its 20th anniversary. CEQ started life as a newsletter for a small coterie of executives and observers interested in what was then a peripheral bit of the world economy. As China became more important and information about it in more demand, we built the Dragonomics research service around it. Today China is crucial in any discussion of global affairs, and the...

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    Gavekal Research

    All Pomp, No Circumstance

    President Trump’s 12-day trek through Asia promises much pomp and little circumstance. Since his administration has no strategic vision for the region and has chosen to abandon many of the tools of diplomacy in favor of overblown rhetoric and empty threats, there is little chance of material progress on any important economic or security issues.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Post-Reform China

    The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will decide whether Xi Jinping emerges as the head of a more “presidential” system of government, or whether the current collective system holds sway. Either way, Arthur argues that hopes for a new burst of reform in the Congress’s aftermath are probably mistaken.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    High Financial Anxiety

    China’s financial system has its troubles, but a large-scale crisis is unlikely. Localized problems among poorly run, small-scale city and rural banks are the bigger risk.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Financial Labyrinth

    Is China’s financial system going to collapse? The speed of credit growth, the proliferation of financial institutions and financial products, and the chaotic and fragmentary data all make it reasonable to fret that China is on the verge of catastrophe. This issue of the CEQ is our attempt to bring clarity to this mystifying landscape.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Limits Of Magical Thinking

    A persistent American fantasy of hardliners is that threats of force will magically cause other countries to abandon their interests and cave in to US demands. The current occupant of the White House is taking this magical thinking to new heights in his approach to Asia. But thankfully, despite the dire headlines, the real-world impact is small.

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    Gavekal Research

    Reading Trump’s Trade Signals

    Donald Trump came into office six months ago today promising to rip up the rules of global trade in order to put America’s narrow interests first and cut its trade deficit. So far, though, his administration’s trade policies have been more smoke than substance. Global trade volume has accelerated smartly since the US election. Threats of a trade war with the main target, China, fizzled in the face of US business interests, Beijing’s ability to...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: New Investment Opportunities In China

    China’s onshore financial markets are opening up. Admittedly, neither last month’s inclusion of Chinese A-shares in MSCI’s benchmark indexes, nor this month’s opening of the Bond Connect scheme, will change the world immediately. But together they signal that Beijing is serious about opening its capital markets to foreign investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Trump And Xi: The End Of The Bromance?

    Last week Washington soured its relationship with China by imposing sanctions on some Chinese companies and individuals that do business with North Korea and announcing a big arms sale package for Taiwan. Rumors also continue to percolate that Trump is preparing for more aggressive trade action. Arthur discusses whether it is time to worry.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China In The Asia-Pacific

    China is attempting to become Asia’s new leader. The high costs of confronting it mean that the US’s regional influence is likely to dwindle. But widespread distrust of China means that many countries will continue to prefer investment from the EU, US and Japan. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates China’s role in the Asia-Pacific.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    US-China Power Shift: Not So Fast

    Do Donald Trump’s miscues ensure the eclipse of Pax Americana by a rising China? Not yet.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Export Upgrade Challenge

    Shifting China’s industrial production from low-margin assembly to high-value, technology-intensive goods has long been the Holy Grail for planners. Export data show a lot of progress, but also an enduringly high reliance on foreign components, technology and management.

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    Gavekal Research

    Getting By Without Friends

    After a week spent in Europe antagonizing fellow democratic leaders, conspicuously failing to reaffirm the US’s commitment to defend its NATO allies, and driving Angela Merkel into an uncharacteristically histrionic speech about Europe’s need to go it alone on security policy, Trump came home and announced he is pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar — May 2017

    Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Arthur Kroeber presented at Gavekal's New York seminar last week.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research April Call

    In the aftermath of the first summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the critical issues remain the same: a prickly trade and investment relationship which American businesses feel is increasingly skewed against them, and rising danger of confrontation over North Korea. In the background lies the question of how long China’s current economic expansion will keep running. Arthur Kroeber and China policy analyst Yanmei Xie discussed...

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