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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 26th 2021
Webinar: Europe And The Politics Of Exiting The Pandemic
Europe is at a strange juncture, as governments remain committed to massive fiscal and monetary support and refuse to rush into any economic reopening before Covid vaccinations are deployed. Yet despite this collective risk aversion, Italy has appointed a new technocratic government run by Mario Draghi that looks to have broad political support and a fairly radical plan for change. Our team explored Europe's exit from the pandemic and asked...
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 22nd 2021
Can Covid Vaccines Cure The Pound?
The British pound has been the strongest major currency so far this year, contrary to Anatole’s expectations at the end of 2020. In this piece he outlines three reasons for sterling’s outperformance, but maintains that in the long term the pound will be forced lower.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave
Feb 19th 2021
A Discussion On Treasury Yields
In recent days, long-dated US treasury yields have made a clear move higher. Unless there’s a violent turnaround in the coming days, February will mark the seventh consecutive month of flat-to-negative returns for treasuries This is an important development, with potentially far-reaching investment implications. Anatole and Louis discuss the outlook for yields, and the consequences for asset prices.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 04th 2021
Six Reasons To Stay Bullish
Is the recent speculative mania the beginning of the end of the post-2009 bull market in stocks? Or is it only the end of the beginning? Anatole argues that today’s speculation is reminiscent of the later stages of dot-com bubble, but he remains a confirmed bull on global equities. In this paper he offers six reasons why this is no contradiction.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 02nd 2021
The Real Effect Of The Vaccine Row
The fiasco of Europe’s vaccination plan and Brussels’ retreat from its standoff with the UK and AstraZeneca have has caused the euro to weaken. While this reaction makes sense, the euro is, in fact, unlikely to fall much more against sterling, while the euro-dollar exchange rate will depend on how politicians behave in Washington, more than bureaucrats in Brussels.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jan 22nd 2021
Risks In The Biden Era
In December, Anatole outlined 10 disparate risks that could derail the bull market in 2021. That was before the Democrats won full control of the US government, paving the way for approval of Joe Biden’s new super-size stimulus package. In light of the developments over the last month, Anatole reassesses his 10 risks.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Arthur Kroeber
Jan 22nd 2021
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2021
A Democratic US administration is set to control all arms of the US government for the first time since 2010. Will this mean a fiscal blowout, causing big changes in the pricing of treasuries and the US dollar? Louis, Anatole and Will assess the possibilities.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Jan 20th 2021
Webinar: Europe’s Cruel Winter
As the pandemic intensifies across Europe growth prospects in the first quarter are dimming, but investors are focused on a potential economic reopening by the spring. In yesterday’s webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Nick Andrews and Cedric Gemehl discussed whether markets are overly optimistic since the European Union seems to have botched its vaccine procurement strategy.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jan 07th 2021
Investors Should Welcome An Undivided US Government
With undivided Democratic Party control of the White House and both chambers of the US Congress now confirmed, the Biden administration will have free rein to pursue stimulus spending. Yet the balance of power in the Senate means tax hikes are off the table for at least two years. Anatole argues this is highly bullish for US equities.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Dec 22nd 2020
Goldilocks And The 10 Bears Of 2021
In recent years Anatole has written a series of articles describing 10 key risks for investors. He readily accepts that this year’s exercise was rendered redundant by the emergence of Covid-19 in January. Next year, however, he believes that a greater range of factors could weigh on markets and in this piece assesses them one by one.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Dec 15th 2020
Deal Or No Deal: Should We Really Care?
As the fifth season of the Brexit soap opera lumbers towards a predictably messy climax, the prospect of a sixth season will probably be enough to discourage international investors from considering British assets and sterling for another year or more. And rightly so. British assets should continue to be avoided because sterling at its present level represents a case of “heads I lose, tails I don’t win”.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Nov 09th 2020
Pricing The Post-Election World
For once, everything went according to plan. The US election has passed without any big surprises—and the initial market reaction has been exactly what would be predicted in any textbook of finance, when a centrist and predictable conventional politician replaces an extreme and erratic populist as US president.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Louis Gave, Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer
Nov 05th 2020
Webinar: The 2020 US Election
With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 29th 2020
Investment In The Post-Election World
With less than a week to go until the US election, this is a good time to think about investment ideas that could work after November 3, regardless who becomes the next president. Specifically, four important features of the post-election world economy will, in my view, attract more market attention as soon as the US political uncertainty is resolved. These features are already reflected in asset bubbles that have been created by the Covid...
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 22nd 2020
Crisis Averted, Hard Times Ahead
This week, Boris Johnson got what he needed politically: a bromide from Brussels that will allow him to camouflage the compromises he must make to secure a trade deal with the EU before the year’s end. But it will be a minimalist deal that will leave the UK’s service sector out in the cold, increasingly shut out of the EU’s markets.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie, Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 09th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2020
Yanmei Xie discussed the US team’s assessment of risks surrounding the US election, Anatole Kaletsky explained the reasons for his return to bullishness and Louis Gave talked about global asset allocation and how to find “anti-fragile” assets.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 01st 2020
Webinar: Europe In The Second Wave
Yesterday Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews and Anatole Kaletsky joined Tom Holland to discuss what's going on in Europe. Topics ranged from how the economy is fairing in the second wave of the outbreak, what that means for asset prices, and also where Brexit fits into all this.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 14th 2020
A British Mad Man
The world’s worst performing major currency, stock market and economy have all been located in Britain since Boris Johnson was reelected last December. This is not surprising. With hindsight, his decision to outlaw any possible extension of the Brexit transition period as soon as he was reelected fully justified the switch from bullish to bearish on sterling assets that I recommended immediately after this announcement.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 11th 2020
Webinar: From Bearish To (Conditionally) Bullish
Anatole and Will presented their views on the efficacy of US fiscal and monetary policy in response to the Covid crisis, and outlined the prospects for the economy and asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 03rd 2020
Why I Was Right To Turn Bullish
Previously, Anatole tried to explain why he had abandoned the bearish view on equities. We will not know for a long time whether any of his explanations make sense, but Jerome Powell’s speech about the Federal Reserve’s new operating philosophy bolstered his confidence in a once-in-a-generation economic regime change.