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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 14th 2020
A British Mad Man
The world’s worst performing major currency, stock market and economy have all been located in Britain since Boris Johnson was reelected last December. This is not surprising. With hindsight, his decision to outlaw any possible extension of the Brexit transition period as soon as he was reelected fully justified the switch from bullish to bearish on sterling assets that I recommended immediately after this announcement.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 11th 2020
Webinar: From Bearish To (Conditionally) Bullish
Anatole and Will presented their views on the efficacy of US fiscal and monetary policy in response to the Covid crisis, and outlined the prospects for the economy and asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 03rd 2020
Why I Was Right To Turn Bullish
Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that tried to explain why I had abandoned the bearish view on equities. We will not know for a long time whether any of my explanations make sense, but Jerome Powell’s speech about the Federal Reserve’s new operating philosophy last week made me more confident about my assertion of a once-in-a-generation economic regime change.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Aug 18th 2020
Why I Was Wrong To Turn Bearish
Yesterday, Anatole suggested that stock markets may be soaring to new records because the Covid-19 crisis could indirectly produce a stronger world economy in the coming decade. Today, he seeks to explain his damascene conversion from post-March bearishness in order that readers can better judge the merit of this view.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Aug 17th 2020
Will A Keynesian Phoenix Arise From Covid?
Two months ago, Anatole dismissed the rebound in equity prices as an outbreak of “market madness” among bored small-time gamblers deprived of the opportunity to bet on horses and sports. He now admits that call was wrong and in this piece explains what has driven the market to new highs. The turnaround likely reflects the largescale reconversion of leading economies to Keynesian demand-management policies and the fact that these seem baked-in...
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Tan Kai Xian
Jul 31st 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, July 2020
In our monthly Global Investment Roundtable, US analyst Tan Kai Xian analyzed the latest US data and assessed the risk that the present economic stall-out turns into a double-dip recession. Arthur Kroeber explained why the Trump Administration has amped up its Cold War rhetoric on China. Anatole Kaletsky tied it all together and tried to explain the recent movements in global markets.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jul 23rd 2020
Do Bubbles Predict Or Project?
With the second quarter data season now in full swing, the rebound in equity prices that followed the Covid-19 panic seems to have stalled. So, what happens now? In this piece, Anatole follows up on Louis’s recent efforts to define reasons for the surge in equity values and proposes a fresh explanation centered on the nature of bubbles.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl
Jul 22nd 2020
Webinar: The Direction For Europe
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews joined Louis Gave to talk about what lies in store for the European Union in light of Tuesdays agreement on a €750 billion Covid-19 recovery fund.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl
Jul 08th 2020
Webinar: A New European Dawn?
Yesterday Nick and Cedric presented on the topic of their latest Strategy Monthly: A New European Dawn. In this they argue that Europe is finally embracing fundamental reform that should change the investment environment. Anatole offered his take on why the European Union is heading in a “Hamiltonian” direction.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jul 03rd 2020
Time To Run With The Herd?
When a herd of cattle is being hunted by a pack of wolves, the worst thing any cow or bull can do is show individualism and originality by running off in a different direction from the rest of the herd. In financial markets, “the trend is your friend” expresses the same evolutionary logic. Are markets now displaying non-rational herd behavior?
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jun 16th 2020
Five Features Of Market Madness
Examining the frothy market action of last week, Anatole argues that crowd psychology is now driving moves in the US stock market. Five important lessons from the dotcom boom and bust of 1998-2000 indicate that if the Nasdaq composite breaks decisively through its recent high, there may be pots of money still to be made from the current bubble.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jun 01st 2020
Four Reasons To Fade The Rebound
After advising readers not to buy into the March market rebound, Anatole has reviewed the case he made for doubting that a perfectly executed Keynesian recovery was likely—and he did this as Gavekal’s fully avowed Keynesian economist. After a dark night of the soul, he remains skeptical that economic activity will quickly return to anything resembling pre-Covid-19 normality.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
May 29th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2020
Yesterday Louis Gave, Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky joined Arthur Kroeber at the Global Investment Roundtable. They discussed different scenarios for how and when the world’s major economies can exit the Covid-19 crisis and what it means for investors.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
May 22nd 2020
Boris Will Pile Pelion On Ossa
No country has matched Britain’s dismal combination of currency and equity losses so far this year. Making matters worse for Britain than other DMs is Boris Johnson's refusal to extend the post-Brexit transition period beyond December, precisely the time when the Covid-19 recession might otherwise be expected to start lifting.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl
May 20th 2020
Webinar: Europe Update (May 2020)
In yesterday's webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews joined Louis Gave to assess policy measures to deal with Covid-19 in Europe and discuss the significance of a €500bn coronavirus Recovery Fund.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
May 19th 2020
Europe’s Hamiltonian Moment
If there was a rational explanation for Monday’s global risk-on rally, it would be the genuinely exciting news from Europe. It is possible—just possible—that the Franco-German proposal for a €500bn coronavirus Recovery Fund announced yesterday will turn out to be the most important historic consequence of the coronavirus.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Charles Gave
May 01st 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2020
Markets are showing both signs of dislocation (in negative oil prices) and impressive stability (the S&P 500 is only down -4.1% over the previous 12 months). Is this stability a Federal Reserve-induced illusion? Are there more shocks to come? If so, where? In our monthly investment roundtable, Louis, Charles and Anatole discussed market scenarios for the months ahead.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Apr 27th 2020
The Short, Medium And Long Term Outlook
At the end of March, just after the collapse of global stock markets and non-dollar currencies had reached its climax, I argued that it was too early to buy equities but probably a good time to sell US dollars. The first of these ideas turned out to be wrong, the second irrelevant. But far from admitting defeat, I think it is worth doubling down on both these recommendations.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Apr 20th 2020
A Modest Proposal For Europe
A month ago, with the world economy just beginning its lockdown, I presented a modest proposal which seemed impossibly far-fetched to the point of madness. Four days later, the British government announced almost exactly those policies. This week a different crisis is looming: an intensified rerun of the 2012 euro crisis. So here is another modest proposal.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Apr 15th 2020
Webinar: Will Covid-19 Tear Europe Apart?
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews discussed the Covid-19 outbreak in Europe and the unprecedented poilcy responses taken both to combat its spread and help the economy.
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