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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 17th 2020
The Long Term Risks That Matter, And Those That Don’t
In the third paper of his series about the risks that threaten asset markets in both the short and long run, Anatole turns his attention to four longer term risks that are widely discussed—and even more widely misunderstood. Investors should worry about demographics and climate change, although not for the reasons many believe. In contrast, they can sleep relatively easily about debt and productivity growth.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 14th 2020
The Downing Street Putsch
Ever since turning negative on sterling and the UK economy when Boris Johnson dropped his post-election bombshell announcing a new “No Deal” deadline of December 2020, I have been waiting for a chance to double-down on this bearish position. On Thursday, Johnson provided such an opportunity to extend short positions in sterling.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jan 29th 2020
Ten Long Term Risks For The New Decade
Two weeks ago, Anatole looked at the risks that could derail markets in 2020. This week he puts on his long term forecasting cap, and examines the big risks that could play out over the next 10 years. The good news? While there are some risks investors do need to worry about, there are other concerns they can dismiss entirely.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jan 09th 2020
Ten Bears That Could See Off Goldilocks In 2020
With interest rates low, and growth that is neither too hot nor too cold, Anatole remains firmly in the “Goldilocks lives on” camp. But while a continued bull run is the most probable outcome for 2020, bears still lurk in the shadows. In this paper Anatole identifies the 10 main macroeconomic, political and sector risks that could derail markets in 2020.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Will Denyer
Dec 19th 2019
Audio — Gavekal Research Call December 2019
In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer reviewed the current investment environment and outlined their expectations for 2020.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Dec 18th 2019
Boris's Bearish Brexit
We now know why markets reacted so nervously to Boris Johnson’s election landslide last Thursday. The lack of follow-through after that evening’s exit poll and the retreat when trading resumed on Friday morning was suspicious. But there were no clear explanations until Monday evening, when everything became clear. At 10.30pm Downing Street restated Johnson’s promise to finish negotiating a new UK-European Union trade deal within 12 months and...
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Dec 02nd 2019
Learn To Stop Worrying And Love The Pound
Sometimes, markets just get things wrong. Since early January investors have been panicking about a “no deal” Brexit, and I have been urging clients to buy sterling. Not because I became less gloomy about the damage that will be done to Britain by any form of Brexit, but because a “no deal” rupture is the one version of Brexit that can be confidently ruled out.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Will Denyer, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky, Udith Sikand, Arthur Kroeber
Nov 28th 2019
Seminar Series Multimedia — Fall 2019
Partners and analysts present their core ideas for the big economic regions and global markets heading into the year-end and looking forward to 2020.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Nov 04th 2019
Behind The Risk-On
In recent months, economic data has improved or stabilized, and political risks have receded. But now that equity prices on Wall Street have hit new records and US treasury yields have rebounded from the bottom of their post-2011 trading range, it is worth asking if the move to risk-on conditions is a temporary mood swing, or one supported by economic fundamentals.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl
Oct 18th 2019
Europe's Brexit Booster
Boris Johnson has secured a revised Brexit deal and the stage is set for a key Saturday vote in the House of Commons. On balance, there is a 70% chance of the vote passing as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn seems unable to control his Brexit-supporting rebels, while Johnson looks to have persuaded his Brexiteer wing that it could be now or never.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 14th 2019
Sizing Up The Brexit Risks
The pound surged after Boris Johnson and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar achieved a negotiating breakthrough on Thursday over arrangements for the Irish border. The question is: What next? Anatole argues that while these moves still point to a multi-pronged set of outcomes, at least there is now a measurable set of permutations.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 08th 2019
To Impeachment And Beyond
What will determine whether the global economic expansion and equity bull market will continue in the year ahead? The political upheavals which dominated in the past three years, such as the trade war, Iran oil sanctions and Brexit, have seemed to subside or become priced in. But new political noise is being generated by the threatened impeachment of President Donald Trump.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 01st 2019
The Upside For Europe
The euro is trading at its weakest against the US dollar since May 2017. Whether it falls further from here or finds support around current levels to establish a base for a rebound will depend mainly on whether Europe’s economic performance continues to deteriorate, or whether upside surprises are likely in the months ahead.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Louis Gave
Sep 05th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2019
In yesterday’s conference call, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave outlined reasons for recent dramatic moves in bond markets and made arguments for what comes next. Anatole also addressed Brexit developments and Louis discussed the situation in Hong Kong.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Nick Andrews
Sep 03rd 2019
Strategy Monthly: The Message From Bonds
Record low bond yields point to a deflationary catastrophe in the making. Yet growth data in the world’s two biggest economies remain decent. Could investors be reacting to a rupture in the international order? Gavekal analysts are not persuaded by such arguments and offer four alternative explanations for the “bond bubble”.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 02nd 2019
‘Do Or Die’ Boris Is Bullish For Sterling
Considering the political chaos that will descend this week on the UK, it may seem surprising that the pound has bounced back to its trade-weighted level just before Boris Johnson became prime minister. Or maybe it is not too surprising—if a “No Deal Brexit” is the only possible scenario that would justify a further weakening of sterling and other UK assets.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Aug 26th 2019
Europe’s Victimhood Culture
The biggest threat to world economic growth today is not the US-China trade war, but German exceptionalism. Even as Germany has suffered the greatest growth downgrades of any major economy, its politicians have obstinately rejected any Keynesian fiscal expansion. Now calls are mounting for a policy U-turn, but Anatole isn’t holding his breath.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Aug 19th 2019
When The World Goes To Hell
Anatole has previously argued that the correlation between inverted yield curves and recessions has very little predictive significance. In this piece he updates that view to argue that inverted yield curves have no predictive significance whatsoever. For this reason, he thinks that equity investors have gotten their reaction to recent developments about right, while bond investors are all in a muddle.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jul 15th 2019
Boris Johnson And The Pound
With Boris Johnson’s almost inevitable enthronement as British prime minister only a week away, it is a good time to review the recommendation to buy sterling and sell UK government bonds which I first made in January, and repeated in April and again in late May.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber
Jul 12th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2019
In yesterday’s Gavekal Research conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber conducted a mid-year review of the investment environment and outlined their expectations for the rest of the year onward.
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