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E.g., 14-12-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is Beijing Winning The Battle For Blue Skies?

    An unprecedented campaign to reduce air pollution has shuttered factories across north China, with a success that has upended the consensus view that local-government officials always favor economic growth over the environment. In this piece, Yanmei examines whether this change in environmental enforcement is going to be temporary or permanent.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Living With A Nuclear North Korea

    A special envoy of Chinese president Xi Jinping will head to North Korea in what is being billed as a gesture of solidarity and friendship between the two countries’ communist parties. Coming just days after Donald Trump’s visit to the region, the move appears to give the lie to Trump’s assertion that he successfully convinced Xi to “use his great economic influence” to press North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    After Xi’s Coronation

    China’s Communist Party concluded its conclave with a decisive validation of Xi Jinping’s personal leadership, granting him a status and authority unmatched by any Chinese political figure in recent history, and setting the stage for him to exert that power for many years to come.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Bottom Line On North Korea

    Even as the US and North Korea exchange more threats, actual US policy still focuses on getting China to apply economic pressure. Yanmei argues that while China has gradually cut trade ties with the North, it wants the regime to stay in place. This is China’s bottom line, not because of any friendship but because China’s own interests demand it.

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Rebooting China Inc.

    Beijing is tightening controls on cross-border deals. The good old days of unhindered and lavish outward investment are over. Strategic ODI is back in fashion, with China’s SOEs at the helm.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Financial Labyrinth

    Is China’s financial system going to collapse? The speed of credit growth, the proliferation of financial institutions and financial products, and the chaotic and fragmentary data all make it reasonable to fret that China is on the verge of catastrophe. This issue of the CEQ is our attempt to bring clarity to this mystifying landscape.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Tremors On The North Korean Border

    Yanmei Xie reports from China’s border with North Korea, where local residents and officials were left largely unshaken yesterday by the earth tremors from Kim Jong Un’s latest and biggest test of a nuclear bomb. Despite imposing some trade sanctions on its troublesome neighbor, Beijing has no desire to back the North Korean regime into a corner.

    14
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Unicom’s Mixed-Ownership Mixup

    China Unicom says its US$11.6bn share placement will bring it ten new strategic shareholders, including the nation's biggest internet firms. State media are touting the deal as a triumph of the "mixed ownership" reform for state enterprises, but it looks more like a bailout timed to score political points ahead of this fall's Party Congress.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Electric Passenger-Car Acid Test

    China's industrial planners have a clear goal for electric cars: they want China to be the world's biggest market, and the global technological leader, by 2025. The first goal is already in the bag, thanks to massive subsidies and orchestrated purchases by city governments. Gaining technological leadership will be a much tougher slog.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reasserting Control Over Outbound Investment

    The flow of cross-border M&A from China is reviving as the crackdown on capital flight eases. But as Yanmei argues, the flow of deals is unlikely to repeat the stunning growth surge in 2016, as the government has now reasserted its control over outward direct investment. This environment will likely be friendlier to state firms than private ones.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The North Korea Conundrum

    In this brief video interview Yanmei Xie outlines the ever-shrinking list of options the US has for solving the problem of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The risk of military action remains slim, but with North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile it is no longer unthinkable.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The North Korean Tail Risk Just Got A Whole Lot Fatter

    Despite the protestations of some of the less temperate US news media, North Korea did not cross a US “red line” yesterday. However, with the successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could, in theory, drop a nuclear warhead on the US state of Alaska, Kim Jong Un’s rogue state has brought North Asia a big step closer to the critical point at which investors can no longer rule out military action. A shooting war on the...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Empty Promises Of SOE Reform

    At the close of 2016, Xi Jinping’s government vowed to speed up economic reform, and declared “breakthroughs” would be made in overhauling state-owned enterprises. Half a year on, these bold claims have not been matched by actions. The numerous reform trials can give the impression of activity, but real change remains a distant prospect.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Leadership Scenarios For The Party Congress

    The key event in China’s political calendar is now just a few months away. The 19th Party Congress will reveal who will join top leader Xi Jinping in the ruling Politburo Standing Committee, and in the process provide clues to China’s political future. In this piece, Yanmei outlines different possible scenarios and explains their implications.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Equity Is The New Debt

    China’s free-spending local governments have a new way to get money. Raising equity, not just debt, is how many localities are financing the current wave of infrastructure and industrial projects. In this piece, we explain how a new model of government-led funds began as a replacement for local borrowing, but ending up only adding to liabilities.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Kim Problem

    Last weekend's extreme tension on the Korean peninsula is just the latest episode to severely test Beijing’s patience with North Korea. Yet even as elements of the Chinese leadership tire of Kim Jong Un’s grandstanding, China remains unlikely to make a bold move that threatens the regime. Despite acute US pressure, China will seek to preserve the status quo.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research April Call

    In the aftermath of the first summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the critical issues remain the same: a prickly trade and investment relationship which American businesses feel is increasingly skewed against them, and rising danger of confrontation over North Korea. In the background lies the question of how long China’s current economic expansion will keep running. Arthur Kroeber and China policy analyst Yanmei Xie discussed...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Sanctions With Chinese Characteristics

    Since South Korea decided to host a US missile-defense system, China has restricted tourism and closed local operations of Korean firms. The dispute will mean some economic pain for Korea, but no lasting damage. But China is ever more willing to use such “sanctions with Chinese characteristics” to disrupt trade with countries that displease it.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Healthcare—Crisis Or Opportunity?

    China’s growing economy has brought its people longer lives, but also a new set of health problems. Though the government is trying to improve coverage, change is happening slowly. So there is a growing opportunity for private companies to fill the gap. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates the nation’s health problems, and solutions.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The North Korean Wedge Between The US And China

    This week’s missile launches by North Korea, the latest in a recent series of provocations, are forcing the US into a position where it must take steps to limit the threat to itself and its Asian allies. But such moves are certain to antagonize China, and shatter the fiction that the US and China have common interests in dealing with North Korea.

    2
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