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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
May 16th 2019
One Reduction Of Risk At The Margin
By putting off for six months its decision whether or not to impose a 25% tariff on all imports of passenger cars and car parts on national security grounds, the US administration bowed to expedience on Wednesday. In theory, the threat of auto tariffs remains on the table. In practice, the six month delay has robbed the proposal of much of its credibility.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
May 10th 2019
Video: Is The Worst Over For The Eurozone?
Eurozone economic growth was modest in the first quarter of 2019, but it was still stronger than most economists had expected, with Germany avoiding a recession and Italy returning to growth. Meanwhile eurozone equity markets are up a respectable 13% over the year to date. Does this mean Europe is emerging from its economic soft patch?
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
May 02nd 2019
The Message In Eurozone Money
The advanced estimate of first quarter eurozone GDP released on Tuesday came as a pleasant surprise. Growth came in stronger than generally expected, while Italy emerged from recession. With the MSCI EMU equity index up almost 17% YTD in local currency terms, the question is whether growth can be sustained over the coming quarters.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews, Arthur Kroeber
Apr 09th 2019
Europe's China Syndrome
Chinese premier Li Keqiang is in Brussels on Tuesday for the 21st EU-China summit, and the talks are likely to be testy. After much dithering and in response to much pressure from Washington, the EU has begun to take a more hardline posture towards China. The core EU countries share many of the concerns that motivate the US trade war with China.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Apr 05th 2019
Europe's Export Problem
Europe is the world’s most export-dependent big economic region. In such a precious position, the effect of external weakness can be debilitating, as shown by the eurozone manufacturing PMI having just fallen to its lowest in nearly six years at 47.5. The question is whether any respite can be found in overseas markets.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Apr 04th 2019
Auf Wiedersehen, German Competitiveness
Behind the factors that have caused Germany’s factory slowdown, deeper structural trends are eroding the competitiveness of German industry. The gains Germany made by deploying labor more effectively since the late 1990s have now run out, and that there are few signs Germany is well positioned to deploy capital more efficiently in the future.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Mar 27th 2019
Video: Europe's Response To China
Europe has an ambivalent relationship with China that is increasingly under scrutiny. The European Commission recently labelled China a “systemic rival” and France and Germany want to create corporate champions to compete against Chinese state owned enterprises. Europe, however, is not singing from the same hymn sheet.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Mar 19th 2019
A New Era For European Banks
European banking stocks have been battered for much of the last four years by negative interest rates and a Brussels plan to impose market discipline through shareholder bail-ins rather than public bail-outs. This approach is now in question as Germany embraces a new industrial strategy that will rely on strong state-backed banks taking political direction.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Mar 08th 2019
When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging
The first law of holes states: when you are in one, stop digging. It’s sound advice, which central bankers would do well to heed. Unfortunately for Mario Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank, things are not so simple. It is one of the quirks of negative interest rates that the longer rates remain in negative territory, the less accommodative policy becomes.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Mar 04th 2019
A Potential Lifeline For Europe's Banks
As the members of the European Central Bank’s governing council prepare to meet in Frankfurt this Thursday, they face the unsettling possibility that their policy settings may risk compounding, rather than alleviating, the eurozone’s economic weaknesses.Unfortunately for members of the council who may be inclined to dither, doing nothing is not a viable option.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Feb 14th 2019
What Europe’s Political Ructions Mean
European politics is again heating up. Yesterday saw the Spanish government fail to pass its budget in a move likely to spur fresh elections. Populists in Italy and yellow vests in France are keeping up their campaign of disruption. Given that few of these issues directly threaten the structures of the EU, the question for investors is: Does any of this matter?
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Feb 12th 2019
The UK's Limits To Growth
For the British economy, it has been a case of “mustn’t grumble” since the 2016 Brexit referendum. However, the effect of a weak fourth quarter GDP report was to debunk any illusion that Brexit uncertainty has been weathered. Such a reckoning was inevitable with or without Brexit, as the UK has in effect hit limits to its growth.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl
Feb 01st 2019
Strategy Monthly: Europe's Containable Risks
As China slows and the US expansion limps into its dotage, a heavily export-dependent Europe looks vulnerable to another downturn. The latest growth numbers from Italy and Germany make for especially grim reading. Potential shocks loom in the shape of a hard Brexit, populist discontent in France and Italy and the threat of auto tariffs from the US.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jan 24th 2019
Video: Skirting Recession In Europe?
This week the IMF has cut its GDP forecasts for European economies exposed to a synchronous global growth slowdown. Nick gauges the probability that core eurozone economies will fall into recession, examines the scope for stimulative policy responses and explores what the slowdown means for Europe’s financial markets.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jan 22nd 2019
The Future Of Italian Yields
Since it became clear Rome and Brussels were moving towards a compromise to end their budget stand-off, Italian assets have outperformed. The yield on 10-year BTPs has fallen, narrowing the spread over bunds. But investors should be wary of positioning for a continued contraction; in both the short and long term, Italy’s deficit and debt dynamics are unpromising.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jan 07th 2019
Searching For A European Catalyst
With 2019 not yet a week old, the eurozone is already looking uncomfortably like the odd man out. With the world’s big three economies heading more deeply into a synchronous slowdown, policymakers in the US and China are showing their readiness to alter course. European policymakers have displayed no comparable flexibility.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Dec 19th 2018
A New Engine Needed
As the European Central Bank halts net new asset purchases and ends its balance sheet expansion, European equities are back at almost exactly the same level as in December 2014, on the eve of the ECB’s announcement of quantitative easing. Clearly, with extraordinary monetary stimulus no longer in the mix, European stocks will need a different driver if they are to make gains in 2019.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Nov 30th 2018
Winter For Eurozone Credit Growth
A depressing autumn is turning into a dismal winter in the eurozone, as November’s deteriorating PMIs follow weak third quarter growth—and even a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Germany. Much of the softness can be attributed to poor external demand, especially from China and the emerging markets, and to the ongoing disruption to car sales caused by the introduction of new emissions tests. Together these have hammered European manufacturing,...
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Nov 13th 2018
The Doom Loop Tightens
The stand-off between Rome and Brussels over Italy’s 2019 budget claimed its first casualty on Monday. Italy’s major banks were forced to club together to support an emergency bond issue by Banca Carige, after the rise in Italian government bond yields triggered by the budget battle eroded the mid-sized lender’s capital base, pushing it to the brink of collapse.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews, Cedric Gemehl
Nov 12th 2018
Germany, And Europe, After Merkel
All political careers end in failure. Doubtless Angela Merkel is already feeling the sting. Even as the long-serving German chancellor stands up on Tuesday to address the European parliament in Strasbourg, political observers and investors are looking beyond Merkel’s term in office to the identity of her successor. That is likely to be decided on December 7, when Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union is set to elect a new party chairman, so...
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