E.g., 25-09-2020
E.g., 25-09-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The China Inc. Annual Report 2020

    After a historically disastrous quarter, Chinese companies are now enjoying a V-shaped rebound—but what is driving this bounce, and how sustainable is it? In his annual chartbook, Thomas answers these and other questions, dissecting the impact of Covid-19 on China’s corporate sector across sales, margins, profits, cashflow, capex and leverage.

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    Gavekal Research

    When Export Strength Is A Sign Of Weakness

    China’s manufacturers are back to normal, and then some. Exports and manufacturing output are running faster than their pre-pandemic trend in 2019, even as global trade is contracting. In this piece, Andrew and Thomas explain what’s driving those strong numbers, and why they are actually a sign of continued weakness in the global economy.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Booming Recovery

    China’s economic recovery continues to boom ahead, with retail sales turning positive and exports continuing to outperform. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain why this momentum is likely to continue for several more months but might dampen towards the end of the year as credit tightens and the property market is reined in.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Good News For Corporate Earnings

    Good news for corporates: aggregate Q2 net profits for China’s listed non-financial firms were flat YoY, compared to a 50% Q1 decline. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why he thinks this recovery in listed earnings is likely to continue through H2; however, he expects Q2’s big outperformers to take a step back in the coming months.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    An Acceptable Amount Of Chaos

    The first batch of 18 firms on Shenzhen’s tech-oriented ChiNext board under new registration-based IPO regulations exhibited exceptional levels of price volatility this week after their Monday debut. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why this volatility is to be expected in Chinese equities and might even be an improvement on the status quo.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Headwinds Build For Equities

    Chinese equities tapped on their ceiling this week but have been unable to break through, despite both surprisingly positive economic data and rebounding corporate earnings. In this piece, Thomas explains how increasingly adverse liquidity conditions are keeping a downward pressure on the markets which is unlikely to lift in the short term.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Leg Up For Growth

    After plateauing in Q2, China’s economic activity is stepping up in Q3, powered by demand in housing, infrastructure and exports, and a lessening drag in consumer services. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain how these factors will assist the country as it continues down its path back to economic normalcy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Leading The Way In Export Recovery

    Chinese exports have outperformed expectations due to booming sales of goods related to Covid-19 and Chinese manufacturers staying open when their international counterparts were forced to suspend production. In this report, Thomas explains why China's export growth will continue to flatten in H2 as global trade catches up.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Recovery Tapers Off

    Although Q2 GDP growth rebounded strongly after Q1’s significant contraction, sequential growth slowed considerably into June. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea, Wei and Xiaoxi report on why despite this latest rebound it will be difficult for the country to maintain its upward momentum as it moves into Q3.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Capital And Bond Markets

    On Tuesday morning Thomas Gatley and Wei He joined Arthur Kroeber to discuss the Chinese equity bull market and the major reversal in the bond market.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Burst A Bubble

    Chinese equities surge ahead, and officials are worried that markets are coming dangerously close to resembling the dramatic boom and bust of 2015. In this report, Thomas makes the case that the current rally has no basis in fundamentals and outlines how regulators are trying to guide equities back to reality without causing a panic.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Bull Run In Chinese Stocks

    Chinese equity markets are bounding higher on ebullient animal spirits. The CSI 300 index is up some 12.5% YTD in renminbi terms Monday morning. While the sequential rebound in profits from the first quarter’s dire situation has been heartening, the prospects for year-on-year earnings growth cannot justify this exuberance.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Uneven Rebound In Consumption

    The recovery of consumption in China is coming, but it will be an uneven one. In this piece, Thomas explains how the combination of recent negative surprises on public-health restrictions with positive surprises on jobs and income will shape the trajectories of different consumption categories, from food to autos to electronics.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Beginnings Of A Plateau

    China’s economic data for May continued April’s wider recovery; however, Thomas, Rosealea and Xiaoxi argue that this upward momentum is losing steam. Weak external demand, tapering industrial production and Beijing’s aversion to further monetary easing all support the idea that China’s post-Covid bounceback is starting to plateau.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    US Politics Versus Chinese Stocks

    Financial markets are the latest field in which US-China political tensions are playing out. Thomas describes two lines of attack US hawks are pursuing against China: blocking Chinese firms from US equity markets and pressuring US asset managers to avoid Chinese equities. The risk associated with Chinese stocks has therefore materially increased.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chill On Corporate Capex

    The Covid-19 lockdown led to a historic collapse in corporate capital expenditure in early 2020, but what comes next? In this piece, Thomas introduces a new model for understanding China’s investment cycle. Private-sector capex should stay weak in the second half of 2020, lagging public-sector infrastructure spending, but rebound in 2021.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    April’s Fitful Recovery

    China released economic data for April showing a continued recovery in industry and investment as well as a surprising recovery in exports. In this Quick Take, Thomas argues that with exports headed for a substantial decline, this upwards trajectory is likely to plateau in May.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Earnings Crunch Arrives

    Earnings season for China’s listed companies has finished, and the numbers are not pretty: the aggregate net profits of non-financial firms fell by 51% YoY in Q1. In this Quick Take, Thomas assesses the damage to earnings and outlines the consequences for the corporate sector.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Swift Recovery For Corporate Profits

    Broad equity indexes in China seem to be faring much better than they should, given the poor Q2 outlook for Chinese corporate profits. Thomas surmises this is due to investors’ belief that policy stimulus will grow to 2009 levels and continue into Q3—a belief that is likely to disappoint, leading to a potential correction in H2.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Markets Outlook For The World And China

    In Thursday’s webinar, Thomas Gatley explained why China’s corporate sector is weathering the country’s downturn with relative ease and Louis Gave offered a global strategy view for investing in a Post Covid-19 world.

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