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E.g., 27-10-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Ghost Trains And The Chinese Debt Mountain

    Fears about a debt crisis erupting in the world’s most financially vulnerable nations have receded, but there is still uncertainty over how developing economies will manage their debt repayments. The biggest lender to low- and middle-income countries is China, and a new study estimates that debt owed to China has been severely underreported.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — September 2021

    In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Having It Both Ways In Emerging Markets

    The question for emerging market policymakers is: do they follow the Federal Reserve and tighten monetary policy in anticipation of "taper tantrum II"? Or do they, instead, try and stimulate their weakened economies by keeping money cheap and hope this does not prompt a disorderly exit of capital?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Anglosphere Doubles Down

    The “Aukus” security partnership sparked a diplomatic explosion when it was unveiled by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States last week. As the smoke clears, America’s strategy to counter China is becoming clear. But the diplomatic fallout from Aukus also reflects a new reality. How does Europe fit into this brave new world, and how will China respond?

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Winners And Losers In India’s Dying Democracy

    As India’s economy has weakened, so too have its democratic foundations. Since Narendra Modi’s reelection victory in 2019, “the world’s largest democracy” has flirted with despotism. State institutions have been co-opted, freedoms repressed and minorities attacked. But a handful of listed companies—especially those run by tycoons with personal ties to Modi—are thriving.

    15
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: A Shaky Recovery

    India is enduring a shaky, stop-start recovery. Headline GDP growth in the April-June quarter came in at a stellar 20%, but base effects are distorting the true picture. The biggest risk for investors, argue Udith and Tom, is an uncertain monetary environment. As the Fed readies to taper its asset purchases, both exports and the bond market are vulnerable to disruption.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Interest In Afghanistan

    The western media have been full of warnings over the last week about how the US loss in Afghanistan is China’s gain, with Beijing poised to step into the vaccuum left by Washington’s withdrawal. But while China is anxious to protect its own security, it has no wish to bury itself in the graveyard of emires and will be extremely circumspect about pouring large investments into such a volataile country.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Afghan Quandary

    For China, the only thing worse than having the United States Army on your border is not having it there at all. When the US completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan this summer, China will have to fill the ensuing power vacuum to stave off terrorism and Islamic extremism at home, as well as protect its Belt and Road Initiative investments.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Distributional Effects Of A Pandemic

    While business activity in India has rebounded to above 90% of its pre-pandemic level, the economic suffering caused by lockdowns remains acute. Small firms are struggling to survive, millions of households have fallen into poverty, inequality has worsened and employment levels have structurally declined. Yet none of this has shown up in stock benchmarks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The G7’s Rival To The Belt And Road

    With the launch of “Build Back Better World,” the world’s rich democracies want to take on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The G7 sees the initiative as a chance to re-energize international development finance. The plan is worthy, but the nuts and bolts of providing such projects in poor countries suggests that China does not face serious competition.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Risk To Emerging Markets

    In yesterday's webinar, Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui and Tom Miller weighed up the risks of capital flight from emerging markets as the Federal Reserve again starts talk of tapering. They focused on the different outlook for Asian exporting powerhouses and commodity producers, and discussed India, which is emerging from a severe second wave of Covid-19.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Down But Not Out

    India’s economic recovery was hit by the April-May surge in Covid-19 infections, with the only silver lining being that the second wave was less economically damaging than the first one. With cases now declining and many states opening up, the worst of the economic disruption should be over. However, the outlook for investors in the key asset classes is challenging.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The One For All Problem

    Now that a deal has been done on corporate taxation, this weekend’s Group of Seven summit will focus on helping low-income countries roll out Covid-19 vaccination programs. Given inevitable production and distribution problems, the world is unlikely to be fully vaccinated before the end of 2022.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Red Alert In Southeast Asia

    As the global contest between China and the United States intensifies, Southeast Asia is on the front line. Investors should pay attention to this test case of superpower rivalry as the region is home to 650mn people, a US$3trn economy and critical global supply chains. Any substantial disruption would have a material knock-on effect for markets outside of the region.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Global Pivot To The Indo-Pacific

    The Indo-Pacific is at the heart of global geopolitics today. The US, UK, and European Union are all shifting their attention east. Tom argues that the new treatment of the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a single, connected space reflects a key shift in managing China’s regional power. The impact will be felt in both strategic and economic terms.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India Is Running Out Of Road

    After Mumbai and Delhi, Bengaluru is the latest big Indian city to face a second wave of Covid infections. India’s underfunded health system is collapsing, as we feared it could a year ago. Yet markets are shrugging off the crisis: equities are flat, the rupee resilient. Tom and Udith investigate whether this disconnect is likely to persist.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Giant Problem

    Having recorded 261,000 Covid infections on Sunday, India has emerged as the worst affected country in the pandemic. Efforts to contain the virus likely mean the IMF's growth forecast of 12.5% this fiscal year is too optimistic. The real economic worry would be India’s ability to escape from the structural slowdown that began before the arrival of the pandemic.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    When Will Borders Reopen?

    Even as a new Covid wave sweeps across Europe, the European Union has gotten to work on a Digital Green Certificate to allow resumption of travel, within the bloc and beyond. Health passports that securely document vaccines and test results for travelers are key to opening up borders again. But as Tom explains, getting countries to agree on rules and standards will be a painful slog.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Shape Of India's Recovery

    With the release of pent-up demand and more fiscal spending, India's economy is rebounding sharply. Its growth potential is also being raised by a new push towards privatization and an industrial policy that supports manufacturers. The question is whether India can overcome institutional lethargy and make these policies work. Tom and Udith addressed such issues and the latest market developments impacting sub-continent assets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Belt And Road Turning Green?

    China is trying to clean up its domestic energy sector, but critics accuse it of exporting an outmoded and dirty energy model around the world under the guise of the Belt and Road Initiative. In 2019, Xi Jinping pledged to turn the BRI “green and clean.” Tom argues that there may have been a moderate shift towards green energy, but not a decisive one.

    0
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