E.g., 23-02-2019
E.g., 23-02-2019
We have found 208 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Pre-Election Jitters

    In India, all eyes are focused on May’s general election. In the lead-up, the government has turned on the spending spigots and the central bank has obliged with a recent surprise interest rate cut. However, in this quarterly update Udith and Tom argue that such measures may not be enough to restart the stalled capital spending cycle.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Global Car Industry Catches Chinese Flu

    If the auto industry is a bellwether of global economic health, then much of the world is looking sick. The second half of 2018 was painful for carmakers in all the major auto markets, and 2019 is shaping up to be as bad. Is this just a passing malady that carmakers will soon shrug off, or a chronic condition they will have to manage for years to come?

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Politics Of Indian Largesse

    India aspires to be a US$10trn economy by 2030. It’s fine to dream, but first the ruling BJP must win a general election. After recent defeats in three state elections and a resurgent opposition, it faces a tough race. The interim budget on Friday responded to the Congress Party’s leftist populism while presenting a fiscal plan designed not to spook markets.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Awaiting India's Electoral Boost

    Two recent events have changed the calculus for investors in India. First, the ruling BJP took an electoral battering in three heartland states, imperiling its bid for general re-election. Second, in December the government appointed a new RBI governor. Investors can expect looser fiscal and monetary policies as the BJP pulls out the stops to ensure victory.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Careless Loss Of Indian Central Bankers

    To lose one central bank governor may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose a second one, as India did yesterday, looks like carelessness bordering on recklessness. Urjit Patel’s resignation, after resisting months of pressure from the ruling BJP to ease credit conditions and hand over some of its cash reserves, is another black mark against the government.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Post-Rout Uncertainty

    India is beset with economic problems that range from a deepening credit crunch, a worrying stand-off between the government and central bank and a capital spending cycle that has never really gotten going. Yet despite these challenges, the economy keeps chugging along and should hit 7.5% growth in the current fiscal year. In this quarterly macro update, Udith and Tom consider the outlook in light of political uncertainty ahead of next year’s...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Countering The Belt And Road

    In its escalating rivalry with China, the US has a new target: the Belt and Road Initiative. But both the US and Europe are struggling to redefine the way they win friends and influence people with development finance. Tom argues that the somewhat quieter middle way being pursued by Japan is delivering it both influence and profits.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India's Soft Approach To Hard Money

    A key reason to hold Indian risk assets in recent years has been the presence of a strong government willing to incur short-term political pain in return for longer-term economic gain. Yet, with the Reserve Bank of India fighting the finance ministry over bank regulation policies that may crimp growth ahead of a national election, this premise looks shaky. The partially independent central bank has faced political attack before, but this is...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    JAM Today For Indian Fintech

    There is a Dickensian quality to Indian finance just now as banks struggle under bad debt piles and finance companies face a wholesale funding crunch after a recent high profile default. Yet if these are the worst of times for credit intermediaries in India, there is a clear silver lining as fintech firms capitalize on a national biometric database.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Building The Northern Powerhouse

    After a decade of splurging on infrastructure projects, China’s local governments are now having to cut back. But Beijing has continued to pour money into centrally supported initiatives, particularly Xi Jinping’s pet project for developing the region surrounding Beijing. In this piece, Tom reports on how this northern megaproject is progressing.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Severity Of India’s Rout

    It has been a torrid month for Indian markets. Equities have tanked by -7%, the rupee has dropped to all-time lows, and a new crisis is emerging in the financial sector. Liquidity is tightening in the money markets, threatening the survival of several non-bank financial companies and raising the prospect of contagion risk that could spill over to the rest of the financial system and lead to a broader economic slowdown. The rout in emerging...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: A Mixed Masala

    As public spending is cranked up ahead of an election that is expected to be held next spring, India should be able to sustain its current level of economic growth for a while yet. However, the rate of expansion has likely passed the high water mark for this cycle, argue Udith and Tom in this quarterly update.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Indian Tourists Are The New Chinese

    Some 25mn Indians traveled abroad last year, making sub-continent tourists increasingly important for a range of major destinations. They may not yet rival Chinese travellers who are by far the biggest group of globe-trotters, but in this piece Tom argues that is only a matter of time. Already, it is cheaper for Indians to travel to a range of overseas destinations than within India itself and the middle class increasingly has the travel bug.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Assets And Albatrosses On The Maritime Silk Road

    China is going port-crazy in Southeast Asia. Chinese firms are now engaged in building 15 port projects in the region, at a total cost of more than US$50bn. Will these bricks in the Maritime Silk Road prove to be valuable assets, or financial black holes? In our new DeepChina report, Lance Noble and Tom Miller find the answer is: some of both.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese Juggernaut Will Roll On

    In 2015, I sat down with Sri Lanka’s then-new finance minister. The “teardrop of India” had recently elected a fresh government, kicking out a corrupt president widely regarded as in China’s pocket. Vowing to scrutinize all Chinese deals, the new leaders suspended a massive real estate project in Colombo harbor. “The high costs come from nothing other than corruption, but we do not want taxpayers to pay for the past decisions of a corrupt regime...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India’s Logistics Revolution

    India's logistics sector is so inefficient that getting goods from producers to consumers accounts for about 17% of national output, or twice the level in most developed economies. The result is retarded growth and weakened competitiveness. But thanks to a nationwide goods and services tax, growing consumer demand and rising land prices, consolidation and modernization is afoot across the sector.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    In Sweeps The Monsoon

    The summer monsoon lashed across southwest India yesterday, just a few hours after the central bank announced its first interest-rate hike in more than four years. With oil prices stoking inflation and foreign portfolio flows pouring out of the country, the Reserve Bank of India followed the lead of other emerging markets battling the global US dollar squeeze. Yet the darkest storm clouds are now political, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Going Underground (And Overground) In Delhi And Beyond

    India is rapidly adding new urban metro systems, with ten already built, five under construction and 17 in the planning stages. Tom argues that it is following in China’s footsteps, but unlike China, foreign equipment suppliers and contractors look likely to be major beneficiaries of the Indian build-out.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Summer Market Blues

    Indian growth is picking up nicely just as the external financing environment gets tougher, with a strengthening US dollar, raising yields and most importantly, a sharply rising oil price. In their regular quarterly review, Udith and Tom argue that India can weather the storm, but global investors would do well to back away from the market.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why India’s Growth Is Not Jobless

    India desperately needs to create jobs if it is not to squander what may be the biggest “demographic dividend” in economic history. On the face of things, it looks to be blowing that opportunity, as in recent years the size of the workforce has actually shrunk. In this piece, Tom argues that the raw data obscures a picture that while not ideal, is far better than it looks.

    0
Show me: results