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E.g., 20-09-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Indian Banks On The Block

    As India's economic and fiscal situation goes from bad to worse, the government is preparing to do the unthinkable: privatize state-owned banks. Ever since the first round of nationalization of private lenders in 1969, the state has kept a tight grip on the financial system. Now it reportedly plans to sell its majority stake in six banks, hoping that an infusion of private capital and managerial skill can nurture them back to health.

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Pharma Problem

    India, the world’s pharmacy, is in danger of running out of drugs. The source of the danger is India’s deteriorating relationship with China, which provides up to 70% of the bulk ingredients for India’s pharmaceutical industry. Most Indian pharma makers hold at least two months of stock, but if the situation is not resolved, the global pharma supply chain could be disrupted.

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    Gavekal Research

    India Eyes Up Uncle Sam

    After the border clash with Chinese troops on June 15, India is on the verge of a strategic reorientation towards the United States that will reshape security in Asia. A full formal military alliance with the US would be a red rag to the Chinese bull, and therefore remains unlikely. But India is set to deepen its strategic partnerships with the US and other like-minded countries, especially Japan and Australia. It will also weaken its ties with...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Friendlier Supply Chain Required

    Covid-19 has revealed reliance on Chinese supply chains as a serious national security risk. But shifting manufacturing of vital goods to other parts will be no easy task, especially when alternatives like Vietnam remain so dependent on imports from China themselves. Meanwhile, the pandemic has made other potential locations—notably India—less attractive.

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    Gavekal Research

    Sticks And Stones May Break A Trade Relationship

    Monday night’s deadly face-off between Indian and Chinese soldiers in the Himalayan mountains threatens to rupture a burgeoning trading relationship between Asia’s two largest nations. Diplomats should be able to deescalate military tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries, but it may be harder to normalize economic ties.

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Mini Bazooka

    India’s finance minister yesterday outlined a US$265bn fiscal package to save the economy. It looks to be just enough to stop a slide into depression but not much more. A worrying factor in its response is an apparent lurch towards protectionism, which would undermine any gains made from much-needed reforms to land and labor markets

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    Gavekal Research

    Hard Times For China's Soft Power

    Public opinion over China’s responsibility for the Covid-19 pandemic has hardened across the developing world. On the African continent matters have been made worse by simmering rows over the treatment of Africans by Chinese, both in China and in Africa itself. As the resentment spreads, writes Tom, it threatens to undo decades’ worth of effort by Beijing to apply “soft power with Chinese characteristics”.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Three Big Questions For India

    Under one of the world’s most stringent lockdowns, the prospect that India will be devastated by the coronavirus pandemic is receding, and attention is shifting from saving lives to saving the economy. Tom examines the three big questions hanging over the Indian economy to determine how successful the country's recovery is likely to be.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Pressure For Debt Relief

    Pressure is growing from struggling developing economies for a new round of debt relief. The difference with past campaigns is that the world’s biggest creditor to such nations is China, which could be owed at least US$380bn. China is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach and negotiate one-on-one forbearance agreements that end up costing it tens of billions of dollars.

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    Gavekal Research

    India And The Virus

    India is in the early stages of its Covid-19 epidemic. The economic fallout in the world’s fifth-largest economy will be severe, with well over 100mn casual jobs at risk. Like many emerging economies, India is vulnerable due to a weak medical sector and a lack of fiscal firepower to counter resulting economic shocks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Cardiac Arrest In India’s Body Economic

    Bad debts are clogging the arteries of India’s financial system. Two policy developments at the end of 2019 raised hope of recovery. A Supreme Court judgment set a precedent for resolving bankruptcies more quickly. And the insolvency code was extended to cover non-bank financial companies. However, the reality is that India’s financial system could worsen before it gets better, especially if the government goes ahead with a mooted finance bill.

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    Gavekal Research

    Solving India's Water Crisis

    Experts predict that half of India’s demand for water will be unmet by 2030, threatening livelihoods and the country’s development prospects. Yet water scarcity need not be a disaster for India. With more efficient agricultural practices and better management, India has sufficient water resources both to feed itself and keep its economy on track.

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    Gavekal Research

    Modi Shifts From Tub-thumping To Stimulus

    After spending the first few months of his second term on nationalist politics, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is shifting his government’s attention to the economy. The substantial corporate tax cut announced last month was welcome news. However, Modi will have an uphill battle to get the economy moving before ballooning twin deficits begin to bite.

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Belt And Road Slims Down

    China is still signing up more countries for its Belt and Road Initiative, but money for Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy is getting tighter. Growth in China’s overseas lending has ground to a halt, and overseas construction projects are declining. In this piece, Tom explains why a slimmer Belt and Road has become an economic necessity.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Cost Of Cleaner Shipping

    Right now, investors concerned about energy prices are focused on the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s processing facilities. But a possible conflict in the Gulf will not be the only emergent factor likely to affect oil prices over the coming months. New rules for cleaner shipping fuels, known as “IMO 2020,” also have the potential to roil global petroleum markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Buffeted By Deglobalization, Shipping Lines Tack To Asia

    After a sluggish 2018, global shipping lines are again facing choppy seas thanks to Donald Trump's tariffs and slumping trans-Pacific trade. There is, however, a silver lining for carriers with a strong Asian presence; the US-China trade war is spurring a fragmentation of regional supply chains, and that seems set to boost intra-Asian trade.

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    Gavekal Research

    Foreigners And The Deepening Of Indian Finance

    India’s new government delivered a careful budget last Friday, preferring to keep a veneer of fiscal rectitude than to prioritize growth and jobs with heavy spending. Yet there was one exception amid the caution: for the first time, India is set to issue sovereign debt in foreign currency. This is an intriguing development for foreign investors wanting exposure to India while avoiding currency risk.

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    Gavekal Research

    Can Vietnam Eat China's Lunch?

    Vietnam has the potential to be a big winner from the US-China trade war as companies move manufacturing out of an increasingly high-cost China. This trend can be seen in sharply rising foreign investment and fully occupied export-focused industrial parks. Yet the issue is how to deal with bottlenecks that impede the path to high value-added activities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Can Vietnam Win The Trade War?

    Vietnam is being touted as the big winner of the US-China trade war as companies shift their supply chains toward the low-cost export powerhouse. In the long term that is likely. In the short term, however, an improved export performance may be partly down to Chinese exports being routed through Vietnam to escape US detection.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    India After The Victory Party

    After Narendra Modi’s landslide victory in India’s general election, the economic issues that must be tackled quickly are stacking up. Tom runs through the Indian leader’s inbox and concludes that the scale of the short term problems he faces rules out a 2014-style euphoric run-up in Indian equity.

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