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E.g., 01-12-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Two Equity Rotations In The Making

    Investors are bulled up on hopes that successful vaccine roll-outs will end the Covid-19 pandemic before next spring and the US will get a smooth transition of power that leaves an investor-friendly divided government. Since Pfizer announced its successful stage-three vaccine trials on November 9, managers have been forced to reassess their US portfolio positioning. That process has likely only just got going.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Boost From US Restocking

    As the latest wave of US coronavirus infections continues to worsen, the probability of a modest contraction in fourth quarter GDP is rising. However, there are solid arguments for believing that the worst case scenario for 4Q remains no worse than a mild contraction in output.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Brake On US Growth

    Hopes for effective coronavirus vaccination programs in 2021 propelled both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 small cap index to record high, but on the ground in the US, accelerating infections and rising hospitalization rates prompted more state and local governments to order additional restrictions in a bid to slow the spread of the virus.

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    Gavekal Research

    Time To Look Beyond The US

    Heading into the US elections, there were three big reasons to be bearish on the US dollar. With the results as they stand, one of those concerns has diminished. But the other two continue to weigh on the US currency. Meanwhile, the US equity market is looking extremely expensive compared with equity markets elsewhere. Together, these factors favor unhedged positions in selected non-US equity markets.

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  • Gavekal Research

    Video: Politics And Pandemics—The US After The Election

    The last week has seen two big developments affecting the US economy and markets: effective confirmation that Joe Biden has won the presidency, and a surge in hopes for the early rollout of a coronavirus vaccine as infection rates continue to accelerate. Will examines how the last week’s news affects the US growth outlook, and outlines what it means for US bonds, equities and the dollar.

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    Gavekal Research

    Either Steeper, Or Much Steeper

    Hopes of an early vaccine rollout mean that investors are now looking beyond rising coronavirus infection rates in the US towards an end to the pandemic in 2021. The resulting improved business and consumer confidence will favor stronger activity next year, and therefore a steepening of the US yield curve driven by higher long term bond yields. On top of this, there is an appreciable probability that the Democrats could yet capture the Senate in...

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    Gavekal Research

    US Election Points To A Bullish Result

    The US election is tilting towards a denouement but a categorical result may not be known for weeks. That uncertainty is not good for Americans’ nerves but should not especially trouble investors. More impactful will be policy changes (or maybe the lack of them) that flow from the result. US equities, and growth stocks especially, have been buoyed by the chance of a Joe Biden presidency and split Congress.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The 2020 US Election

    With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Is Still Benign

    The current investment environment in the US faces three clear and present dangers. The first is tomorrow’s election, the second is the resurgent Covid outbreak and the third, is the threat of an inflation surge, which could force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Thankfully for asset markets, the latest releases show inflation to remain benign.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Facing Down US Risks

    The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings. Will, Yanmei and KX assessed the likely fallout from November 3 and assess the latest US economic data with a focus on threats to the US recovery should the pandemic worsen and near-term fiscal responses remain uncertain.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Multi-Faceted US Sell-off

    As Covid-19 cases soar and investors fret about the economic recovery being snuffed out, US equities are getting sucked into a gathering sell off. The worry is that the US follows the kind of nationally-mandated lockdowns now being adopted in Europe. We would make the point that in the US, other factors are also at work.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Dynamics Of US Curve Steepening

    October has seen the US treasury curve steepen, with the spread between three-month and 10-year yields widening by almost 20bp. In historical terms, however, the US curve remains anomalously flat. This suggests there is a greater probability of further steepening in the short to medium term than of flattening. With the short end of the curve pinned at zero by the Federal Reserve, possibly for the next two or three years, any changes in the yield...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Facing Down US Risks

    Investors in US financial assets face a panoply of concerns from political upheaval, a worsening pandemic, uncertainty over near-term fiscal stimulus and threats to the highly-rated tech sector. In this video interview, Will addresses such concerns and offers portfolio positioning advice.

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    Gavekal Research

    The State Of The US Consumer

    Data released on Friday showed that US retail sales rose a welcome 1.9% month-on-month in September. However, fears are growing that the stars are now aligning against the US consumer. First, new Covid infections are climbing rapidly to rival the numbers seen at the height of July’s second wave. With government infectious diseases boss Anthony Fauci warning that things are set to get worse heading into winter, this new wave of infections raises...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Behind The Scenes Cash Boost

    US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s admission that striking a deal with Congress on a new stimulus package before November’s election will be “difficult” was blamed for eroding market sentiment. Maybe. But behind the scenes, the Treasury has begun to run down some of the cash hoard it accumulated between April and August.

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    Gavekal Research

    New Tech, Same Fiat Money (For Now)

    This week saw seven western central banks and the Bank for International Settlements issue a joint report on central bank digital currencies. They come not to bury cash nor to undermine banks, but to modernize payments for a digital age. If so, the introduction of CBDCs is unlikely to upend the banking system and monetary policy, but would resemble the rollout of ATMs in the 1960s.

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    Gavekal Research

    A US Dollar Check-Up

    Over the last month, the US dollar has caught a bid. Admittedly, the rally is small. Since the end of August, the DXY US dollar index has edged up by 1.7%, with the rise in broader dollar indexes scarcely much greater. Nevertheless, the recent uptick is causing some to question whether the dollar’s decline has run its course.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Real US Election Risks

    Some investors worry that a contested US election may spark social and political unrest that is serious enough to threaten US risk assets. They are likely focused on the wrong risk. The US’s democracy faces heavy strains but is nowhere near a breaking point, but the differing outcomes that can occur on (or after) November 3 pose threats to portfolios.

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    Gavekal Research

    When Higher Inflation Is Good News

    Equity markets often seem to have a split personality, but seldom more so than over inflation. A sizable portion of investors is worried that the Federal Reserve is struggling to overcome deflationary pressures, while many of the rest fear the explosion in monetary aggregates must inevitably lead to runaway inflation.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Behind The Market's Mood Swings

    In recent weeks some of the biggest US equity winners since the start of the Covid-19 crisis have appeared to run out of steam, as the Federal Reserve abstained from stepping up its asset purchases. Meanwhile, Congressional gridlock seems to stand in the way of renewed stimulus for American consumers. Will is not too concerned, and in this interview points out that the Fed still has ample ammunition, and that the strength of the US recovery...

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