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Gavekal Research
Nov 18th 2016
Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016
Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Nov 16th 2016
Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations
While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.
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Gavekal Research
Nov 11th 2016
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Charles Gave presented their views on what a Donald Trump presidency means. Anatole outlined both positive and negative potential outcomes. On the positive side, US growth could see a boost from expansionary fiscal policy, but isolationist trade policies could threaten US firms and equity prices. Arthur warned of the geopolitical risk of a power vacuum should the US pull back from its treaty obligations....
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Gavekal Research
Nov 11th 2016
Arthur Kroeber: What A Trump Presidency Means
This is an excerpt from Arthur Kroeber's presentation at Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar on November 10. In this video Arthur presents his initial thoughts on the changes in the political situation in the US, and what it means for the rest of the world.
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Gavekal Research
Joyce Poon
Nov 07th 2016
Joyce Poon: Market Timing In Asia
Investors need to get nimbler in playing Emerging Asia’s equity markets due to the lack of any clear trend that dates back to 2010. Joyce outlines a trading strategy that can potentially make a big difference to performance.
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Gavekal Research
Neil Newman
Nov 04th 2016
Neil Newman: Japanese Equities — Good For A Rally?
The Bank of Japan has rolled back the date that it expects to hit its 2% inflation target, the economy is soft and foreign investors have thoroughly given up on Japanese equities. So why does Neil think there is a good chance of a decent “Santa rally” going into the year end. In this video interview he explains.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Nov 03rd 2016
Will Denyer: Assessing US Recession Risk
Despite recent headline data releases being mildly encouraging, Will is worried that the US economy is limping toward recession territory. In this video interview he discusses his framework for assessing the US economy and proposes investment strategies to deal with what he sees as the two most likely scenarios; namely, an outright contraction or a mild growth pick-up associated with rising inflation.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson
Oct 24th 2016
Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?
Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.
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Gavekal Research
Oct 19th 2016
London Seminar — October 2016
Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Oct 12th 2016
Tan Kai Xian & Leonor du Jeu: The US Trade Deficit Conundrum
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Gavekal Research
Oct 10th 2016
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research October Call
Will Denyer presented a newly minted dynamic asset allocation tool which was developed from an ROIC-based framework that has helped us to better map and predict US economic cycles. He then answered listener questions on these themes.
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Gavekal Research
Pierre Gave
Oct 06th 2016
Pierre Gave: Can Sweden Escape The Negative Rate Trap?
On the surface, Sweden’s two-year experiment with zero, and then negative, interest rates appears to have worked well. Growth is strong by developed world standards, and the economy has escaped deflation. But this success has come at the price of an asset price bubble that looks increasingly dangerous. Pierre Gave assesses the risk, and examines possible exit routes for the Riksbank.
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Gavekal Research
Sep 26th 2016
Singapore Seminar—September 2016
Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have...
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Gavekal Research
Sep 21st 2016
Neil Newman: BoJ Policy Meeting In A Nutshell
After the Bank of Japan’s announcement earlier today of quantitative easing “with yield curve control”, Neil delivers a quick-fire video assessment of the new policy slant, and what it will mean for markets and the broader Japanese economy.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Sep 16th 2016
Will & KX: Soft Growth And Volatile Markets
Will and KX present the quick view on the US economy and financial markets
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Gavekal Research
Sep 08th 2016
Gavekal Research Monthly Conference Call — September 2016
In the inaugural Gavekal Research monthly conference call, Louis, Anatole and Arthur addressed the global growth environment and offered asset allocation suggestions.
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Sep 07th 2016
Monthly Conference Call Transcript — September 2016
This is an unedited transcript provided by the conference call host.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Sep 06th 2016
Video: Is China At A Crisis Point?
Fresh off the publication earlier this year of his book on China, Arthur in this video interview explains China’s long-term economic development strategy before zooming in to answer the key questions that currently vex investors, namely, the trajectory of growth and the potential for a severe financial crisis.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 29th 2016
Video: Yield Chasing—What Could Go Wrong?
Louis outlines his view on this summer's unusual global economy and offers investment advice going forward into autumn.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Aug 21st 2016
Video: Italy's Constitutional Referendum
Nick presents what's at stake in Italy's upcoming constitutional referendum, and what it could mean for the European Union
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Gavekal Research
Aug 20th 2016
Video: The Politics Of Italy's Referendum
Stefano Capacci On The Politics Of Italy's Referendum
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Gavekal Research
Tom Miller
Aug 12th 2016
Video: Indian Growth And Demographics
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Aug 07th 2016
Video: Risks In US High Dividend Stocks
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Gavekal Research
Jul 01st 2016
Conference Call: Investment Scenarios After Brexit
Gavekal partners Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave detail their investment scenarios following last week’s Brexit vote.
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Gavekal Research
May 24th 2016
New York Seminar—May 2016
We are pleased to present audio from our seminar in New York earlier this week with Charles Gave, Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber
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Gavekal Research
Apr 13th 2016
Hong Kong Seminar Multimedia
We are pleased to present recordings and slides from our Hong Kong seminar with Louis-Vincent Gave, Will Denyer and Andrew Batson. Louis examines an important recent development: the US dollar has stopped rising. Will diagnoses the health of the US economy in one chart. And Andrew discusses three scenarios for China: doom, boom and muddle-through.
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Gavekal Research
Apr 12th 2016
Paris Seminar—April 2016
On April 12 Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave and Jean-Jacques Netter held a seminar in Paris where they presented their latest macroeconomic and investment outlooks.
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Gavekal Research
Apr 11th 2016
London Seminar—April 2016
London Seminar—April 2016
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Mar 01st 2016
Video: On Wicksellian Theory
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Feb 29th 2016
Video: On India's Growth
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Gavekal Research
Dec 09th 2015
QSCB: The State Of The US Economy
The US economy displays some worrying signs. Corporate profits have contracted, credit spreads have jumped and inventories are piling up. By the same token, the consumer looks in decent shape as wages rise, oil prices continue to fall and moderate household leverage provides a clear tail wind. So what gives?
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Dec 09th 2015
Video: On The US Economy
For a deeper dive, read the Quarterly Strategy Chartbook: The State Of The US Economy here.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Dec 06th 2015
Video: On Brexit
Nick Andrews discusses the possibility of a "Brexit"
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Oct 30th 2015
Video: "Now Or Never For Vietnam"
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Gavekal Research
Oct 27th 2015
London Seminar Presentation Slides - October 2015
These are the London Seminar presentation slides from October 2015
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Gavekal Research
Oct 27th 2015
London Seminar Audio And Slides
We held our main fall seminar on October 27 in London, where Anatole Kaletsky, Francois-Xavier Chauchat, Neil Newman, Tom Miller and Louis-Vincent Gave presented their views on the global economy. Anatole discussed the implications of recent developments in financial markets; Francois examined Europe’s resilience to global headwinds; Neil outlined three major investment themes in Japan; Tom explored China’s regional foreign policy ambitions, and...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller
Oct 27th 2015
London Seminar: The Aggresively Friendly Giant
What sort of country is China, and what sort of power does it want to be? In this presentation to our seminar in London, Tom Miller explains how to understand the signals China’s leaders have been sending. China wants to pursue great-power status, a process that may alienate its neighbors and will require adjustments from the US.
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Gavekal Research
Oct 21st 2015
Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation
Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation
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Gavekal Research
Oct 21st 2015
Hong Kong Seminar
This is the full recording from Gavekal's October Hong Kong seminar featuring Joyce Poon, Andrew Batson and Anatole Kaletsky as well as a Q&A session.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson
Oct 21st 2015
Hong Kong Seminar: Housing Explains Everything
What is the best way to sort through the complexities of China’s enormous, continent-sized economy? In this presentation to our seminar in Hong Kong, Andrew argues that if you understand what’s going on in the housing market, then you know pretty much everything you need to know about the Chinese economy.
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Gavekal Research
Oct 20th 2015
Louis on leadership in the East and West
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 14th 2015
Conference Call Following The Renminbi Devaluation
After the renminbi’s devaluation investors have been left with more questions than answers. In this conference call, Louis Gave assesses the resulting investment scenarios for China and the rest of the world.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jun 14th 2012
MULTIMEDIA - Louis Talks About Europe On Radio Show Streettalklive
Louis was recently interviewed on the radio program streettalklive, where the talk unsurprisingly centered on the European crisis. Those who would like to listen to this lively discussion can download or stream the audio file, split into two parts:
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Mar 30th 2012
Multimedia Archive
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