Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Oct 18th 2017

After Louis wrote up today’s Daily on the strange dichotomy between strong growth and moribund yields, we sat down to quiz him further on how this contradiction gets resolved. In this short video, he explains why the bond market is the thing that will probably have to give.

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Charles Gave

Oct 11th 2017

In yesterday's monthly call Charles Gave outlined his bullish view on Japan. He argued that Japan has exited its long debt trap and is about to start a new cycle that will be substantially driven by capital spending. The fact that corporate Japan is sitting on US$4trn of domestic savings means this expansion can be funded without borrowing and so the risk of an interest rate shock is negligible. He also argued that the Bank of Japan is on...

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Sep 08th 2017

In yesterday’s monthly call Louis Gave presented his view on the global investment outlook for the rest of the year. He argued that the key story so far in 2017 has been the strong performance of Asian equities, which has added a second leg to a bull market led by US technology and consumer stocks. The question is whether this can last.

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Tom Miller, Udith Sikand

Aug 10th 2017

In this week's call Tom Miller and Udith Sikand presented their view on India's macroeconomic situation and opportunities for foreign investors. Tom outlined the broad macro fundamentals and assessed the Modi government's progress in reforming the economy. Udith presented the investment consequences, expecting a capex revival to begin as soon as next year.

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Thomas Gatley, Long Chen

Jul 13th 2017

Recent efforts to open up China's stock and bond markets have granted deeper access for foreign investors. In Tuesday's conference call Thomas Gatley outlined what MSCI's decision to include A-shares in its indexes means for investors, while Chen Long argued that the next great bond bull market may happen in China.

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Yanmei Xie

Jul 06th 2017

In this brief video interview Yanmei Xie outlines the ever-shrinking list of options the US has for solving the problem of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The risk of military action remains slim, but with North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile it is no longer unthinkable.

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Neil Newman

Jun 09th 2017

Japanese equities recently touched a 17-year high in US dollar terms and perhaps more significantly, they appear to have decoupled from their usually tight inverse relationship with the yen. In this video interview Neil considers both cyclical and structural reasons for the apparent breakout and concludes that investors should not underweight a market that has plenty of tailwinds.

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Udith Sikand

May 24th 2017

In this interview Udith discusses the key developments in India’s macro economy and markets, which have been clouded by the demonetization episode and yet more changes to national economic statistics. The fog may not be about to clear as the government prepares to roll out a new national goods and sales tax with the potential for significant economic disruption.

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Nick Andrews

May 15th 2017

The consensus is for a tortuous few years of negotiations between the UK and the European Union over the terms of Brexit and any subsequent free trade agreement. Following up on today’s Daily, Nick argues in this video interview that a deal may be easier than most people think. Moreover, the template for an FTA may already be in place.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky

Apr 25th 2017

In a special Gavekal Research Conference Call following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their analysis of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s prospects in the second round in two weeks. Anatole Kaletsky presented his view of British politics and the future of the Brexit process following Theresa May calling for a snap election in June.

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Charles Gave

Apr 12th 2017

In this follow-up to yesterday’s interview Charles outlines how investors can position themselves to hedge against a European Union breakup scenario that would likely follow from a Le Pen victory in the French presidential election.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky

Apr 05th 2017

In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky

Mar 17th 2017

Yesterday’s call had Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky opine on political risk leading up to French and German national elections later this year. Nick Andrews argued that the eurozone recovery is becoming self-sustaining, and offered views on capturing the upside, while hedging against political risk.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer

Feb 22nd 2017

Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.

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Udith Sikand

Feb 14th 2017

Udith discusses the effects of India's demonetization last year on the growth of the economy

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Arthur Kroeber, Charles Gave, Will Denyer

Jan 18th 2017

Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.

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Arthur Kroeber

Jan 17th 2017

Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

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Nick Andrews, Stefano Capacci

Nov 23rd 2016

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, attention has shifted to the eurozone with the assumption that more dominos must topple under the gathering populist political wave. In this video interview Nick considers the good, the bad and the ugly of the European political scene and offers pointers for navigating these risks.

Gavekal Research

Nov 18th 2016

Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.

Gavekal Research

Nov 11th 2016

Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Charles Gave presented their views on what a Donald Trump presidency means. Anatole outlined both positive and negative potential outcomes. On the positive side, US growth could see a boost from expansionary fiscal policy, but isolationist trade policies could threaten US firms and equity prices. Arthur warned of the geopolitical risk of a power vacuum should the US pull back from its treaty obligations....

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Will Denyer

Nov 03rd 2016

Despite recent headline data releases being mildly encouraging, Will is worried that the US economy is limping toward recession territory. In this video interview he discusses his framework for assessing the US economy and proposes investment strategies to deal with what he sees as the two most likely scenarios; namely, an outright contraction or a mild growth pick-up associated with rising inflation.

Gavekal Research

Oct 19th 2016

Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.

Gavekal Research

Oct 10th 2016

Will Denyer presented a newly minted dynamic asset allocation tool which was developed from an ROIC-based framework that has helped us to better map and predict US economic cycles. He then answered listener questions on these themes.