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Gavekal Research
Neil Newman
Oct 27th 2017
Video: After Abe's Election Victory
Despite poor personal approval ratings, last weekend prime minister Shinzo Abe scored a convincing victory in Japan’s general election. In this short video interview Neil examines what the prospect of five more years of “Abenomics” policies means for Japan’s economy, corporate sector and stock market.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Oct 18th 2017
Video: Which Messenger To Believe?
After Louis wrote up today’s Daily on the strange dichotomy between strong growth and moribund yields, we sat down to quiz him further on how this contradiction gets resolved. In this short video, he explains why the bond market is the thing that will probably have to give.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Oct 17th 2017
Video: Demographics And The Savings Glut
Slow-moving demographic trends have a big impact on asset prices. For the last 35 years, the age structure of the world’s population has created a global savings glut which has propelled secular bull markets in both equities and bonds. Now that demographic tailwind is fading. In a few years it is likely to reverse.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Oct 11th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research October Call
In yesterday's monthly call Charles Gave outlined his bullish view on Japan. He argued that Japan has exited its long debt trap and is about to start a new cycle that will be substantially driven by capital spending. The fact that corporate Japan is sitting on US$4trn of domestic savings means this expansion can be funded without borrowing and so the risk of an interest rate shock is negligible. He also argued that the Bank of Japan is on...
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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Sep 12th 2017
Video: The Robots Are (Not Yet) Coming
It is hard to open a business magazine these days without finding some grave prediction about machines eating the jobs of middle class professionals from Pittsburgh to Paris. Yet for all the agonizing about mechanized baristas in every neighborhood coffee shop, killer robots and subversive AI algorithms, it is not clear that machines are taking over. Dan has run the numbers, and in this video interview sets the record straight.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Sep 08th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research September Call
In yesterday’s monthly call Louis Gave presented his view on the global investment outlook for the rest of the year. He argued that the key story so far in 2017 has been the strong performance of Asian equities, which has added a second leg to a bull market led by US technology and consumer stocks. The question is whether this can last.
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Gavekal Research
Neil Newman
Aug 29th 2017
Video: Feeling Insecure — Japan’s Food Problem
Japan’s late conversion to the cause of free trade owes a lot to the recognition that continued trade protection is no longer sustainable in what historically has been one of Japan’s most rigorously defended domestic sectors: agriculture. Demographics and changing diets mean Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate has fallen to 38%, the lowest among developed economies.
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Gavekal Research
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand
Aug 10th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research August Call
In this week's call Tom Miller and Udith Sikand presented their view on India's macroeconomic situation and opportunities for foreign investors. Tom outlined the broad macro fundamentals and assessed the Modi government's progress in reforming the economy. Udith presented the investment consequences, expecting a capex revival to begin as soon as next year.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jul 18th 2017
Video: New Investment Opportunities In China
China’s onshore financial markets are opening up. Admittedly, neither last month’s inclusion of Chinese A-shares in MSCI’s benchmark indexes, nor this month’s opening of the Bond Connect scheme, will change the world immediately. But together they signal that Beijing is serious about opening its capital markets to foreign investors.
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Gavekal Research
Thomas Gatley, Long Chen
Jul 13th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research July Call
Recent efforts to open up China's stock and bond markets have granted deeper access for foreign investors. In Tuesday's conference call Thomas Gatley outlined what MSCI's decision to include A-shares in its indexes means for investors, while Chen Long argued that the next great bond bull market may happen in China.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jul 07th 2017
Video: A Cure For The Italian Malaise
Italy’s economy is enjoying a cyclical upswing, and a long-delayed banking clean-up is finally under way. But while both these developments are welcome, they are not sufficient to change the underlying picture. Nick argues there is little chance that the general election due to be held by May 2018 will produce a government strong enough to press ahead with reform.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Jul 06th 2017
Video: The North Korea Conundrum
In this brief video interview Yanmei Xie outlines the ever-shrinking list of options the US has for solving the problem of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The risk of military action remains slim, but with North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile it is no longer unthinkable.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave
Jun 12th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research June Call
Anatole Kaletsky responded to the British Conservative Party’s shock loss of their electoral majority by arguing that the UK is now likely to end up with a soft Brexit and may even end up rejoining the European Union. Louis Gave looked across recent market moves and argued that the case for emerging markets remains exceptionally strong.
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Gavekal Research
Neil Newman
Jun 09th 2017
Video: Breaking The Yen-Equity Link
Japanese equities recently touched a 17-year high in US dollar terms and perhaps more significantly, they appear to have decoupled from their usually tight inverse relationship with the yen. In this video interview Neil considers both cyclical and structural reasons for the apparent breakout and concludes that investors should not underweight a market that has plenty of tailwinds.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Arthur Kroeber
May 31st 2017
New York Seminar — May 2017
Louis Gave, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Arthur Kroeber presented at Gavekal's New York seminar last week.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
May 24th 2017
Video: India's Economic Fog
In this interview Udith discusses the key developments in India’s macro economy and markets, which have been clouded by the demonetization episode and yet more changes to national economic statistics. The fog may not be about to clear as the government prepares to roll out a new national goods and sales tax with the potential for significant economic disruption.
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Gavekal Research
Neil Newman
May 19th 2017
Video: Japan's Next Baby Boom
In this interview Neil explains why the oft repeated line about Japanese couples not wanting to have many kids is a huge exaggeration. The problem is bizarre government regulations and a drastic shortage of childcare facilities. Such inhibitors to tiny feet pattering are about to get a major government-induced overhaul, and a Japanese baby boom may be around the corner. If correct, this shift in Japan’s demographic curve could have profound...
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
May 15th 2017
Video: How Brexit May Work
The consensus is for a tortuous few years of negotiations between the UK and the European Union over the terms of Brexit and any subsequent free trade agreement. Following up on today’s Daily, Nick argues in this video interview that a deal may be easier than most people think. Moreover, the template for an FTA may already be in place.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Apr 28th 2017
Video: The French Election And Beyond
In these video interviews Cedric looks at likely scenarios in the second round of the French presidential election, while Nick considers the potential for a renewed Franco-German axis as the driver of progress in the European Union.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
Apr 25th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call On The French And UK Elections
In a special Gavekal Research Conference Call following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their analysis of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s prospects in the second round in two weeks. Anatole Kaletsky presented his view of British politics and the future of the Brexit process following Theresa May calling for a snap election in June.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Long Chen, Yanmei Xie
Apr 14th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research April Call
In the aftermath of the first summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the critical issues remain the same: a prickly trade and investment relationship which American businesses feel is increasingly skewed against them, and rising danger of confrontation over North Korea. In the background lies the question of how long China’s current economic expansion will keep running. Arthur Kroeber and China policy analyst Yanmei Xie discussed...
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Apr 12th 2017
Video: How To Play A Le Pen Victory
In this follow-up to yesterday’s interview Charles outlines how investors can position themselves to hedge against a European Union breakup scenario that would likely follow from a Le Pen victory in the French presidential election.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Apr 11th 2017
Video: The French Election
In this interview Charles assesses the political situation ahead of France’s two-round presidential election, which kicks off later this month. Topping everyone’s list of questions is whether National Front leader Marine Le Pen will defy the opinion polls to win a surprise victory, and what a Le Pen presidency would mean for France and the European Union.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky
Apr 05th 2017
London Seminar — March 2017
In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand, Tom Holland
Mar 28th 2017
Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017
In Gavekal’s Asia focused seminar in Hong Kong last week Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand and Tom Holland presented their outlooks for the rest of the year.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky
Mar 17th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research March Call
Yesterday’s call had Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky opine on political risk leading up to French and German national elections later this year. Nick Andrews argued that the eurozone recovery is becoming self-sustaining, and offered views on capturing the upside, while hedging against political risk.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Mar 03rd 2017
Video: The Self-Sustaining Eurozone Recovery
A broadening and deepening of the eurozone’s economic recovery suggests that the expansion has finally become self-sustaining. The worry is that a political shock from upcoming national elections tips the single currency area back into crisis. Nick Andrews does not think such a bearish outcome is likely, and in this video explains his preferred investment strategy.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer
Feb 22nd 2017
Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017
Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber
Feb 20th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research February Call
In Gavekal Research’s February conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave delves into the unexpected origins of the reflation trade in order to assess its future prospects. And Arthur Kroeber unpicks the combative rhetoric emanating from Washington to gauge the probability of heightened trade friction between the United States and China.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Feb 14th 2017
Video: India After Demonetization
Udith discusses the effects of India's demonetization last year on the growth of the economy
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Gavekal Research
Jan 27th 2017
Video: Making Sense Of US Trade Tax Plans
Yesterday Donald Trump met members of Congress to discuss a 20% tax on imports into the US. However, what is being proposed is not an outright tariff, but rather a system of “border tax adjustments”. Will explains what these are, how they will work, and what effect they will have on the US dollar and the real economy.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Charles Gave, Will Denyer
Jan 18th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research January Call
Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jan 18th 2017
Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?
In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jan 17th 2017
Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations
Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...
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Gavekal Research
Dec 07th 2016
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research December Call
Louis and Anatole outlined their views on the new investment environment. Louis focused on the apparent contradictions in investors’ reaction to Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election. Anatole argued that the US has almost certainly transitioned to a more inflationary growth path, but said it would be a slow build-up.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews, Stefano Capacci
Nov 23rd 2016
Video: European Political Dominos
In the aftermath of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, attention has shifted to the eurozone with the assumption that more dominos must topple under the gathering populist political wave. In this video interview Nick considers the good, the bad and the ugly of the European political scene and offers pointers for navigating these risks.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Nov 22nd 2016
Stagnation or Bust? A Wicksellian Chart Dashboard
For users’ convenience, we provide below the complete set of charts published in Charles Gave’s November 2016 book Stagnation or Bust? A Wicksellian View of the Natural Interest Rate, the Market Rate and Asset Allocation, with interactive graphics available for Macrobond subscribers.
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Gavekal Research
Nov 18th 2016
Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016
Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Nov 16th 2016
Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations
While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.
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Gavekal Research
Nov 11th 2016
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Charles Gave presented their views on what a Donald Trump presidency means. Anatole outlined both positive and negative potential outcomes. On the positive side, US growth could see a boost from expansionary fiscal policy, but isolationist trade policies could threaten US firms and equity prices. Arthur warned of the geopolitical risk of a power vacuum should the US pull back from its treaty obligations....
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Gavekal Research
Nov 11th 2016
Arthur Kroeber: What A Trump Presidency Means
This is an excerpt from Arthur Kroeber's presentation at Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar on November 10. In this video Arthur presents his initial thoughts on the changes in the political situation in the US, and what it means for the rest of the world.
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Gavekal Research
Joyce Poon
Nov 07th 2016
Joyce Poon: Market Timing In Asia
Investors need to get nimbler in playing Emerging Asia’s equity markets due to the lack of any clear trend that dates back to 2010. Joyce outlines a trading strategy that can potentially make a big difference to performance.
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Gavekal Research
Neil Newman
Nov 04th 2016
Neil Newman: Japanese Equities — Good For A Rally?
The Bank of Japan has rolled back the date that it expects to hit its 2% inflation target, the economy is soft and foreign investors have thoroughly given up on Japanese equities. So why does Neil think there is a good chance of a decent “Santa rally” going into the year end. In this video interview he explains.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Nov 03rd 2016
Will Denyer: Assessing US Recession Risk
Despite recent headline data releases being mildly encouraging, Will is worried that the US economy is limping toward recession territory. In this video interview he discusses his framework for assessing the US economy and proposes investment strategies to deal with what he sees as the two most likely scenarios; namely, an outright contraction or a mild growth pick-up associated with rising inflation.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson
Oct 24th 2016
Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?
Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.
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Gavekal Research
Oct 19th 2016
London Seminar — October 2016
Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Oct 12th 2016
Tan Kai Xian & Leonor du Jeu: The US Trade Deficit Conundrum
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Gavekal Research
Oct 10th 2016
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research October Call
Will Denyer presented a newly minted dynamic asset allocation tool which was developed from an ROIC-based framework that has helped us to better map and predict US economic cycles. He then answered listener questions on these themes.
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Gavekal Research
Pierre Gave
Oct 06th 2016
Pierre Gave: Can Sweden Escape The Negative Rate Trap?
On the surface, Sweden’s two-year experiment with zero, and then negative, interest rates appears to have worked well. Growth is strong by developed world standards, and the economy has escaped deflation. But this success has come at the price of an asset price bubble that looks increasingly dangerous. Pierre Gave assesses the risk, and examines possible exit routes for the Riksbank.
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Gavekal Research
Sep 26th 2016
Singapore Seminar—September 2016
Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have...