Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl

May 28th 2019

The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber

May 24th 2019

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews

May 10th 2019

Eurozone economic growth was modest in the first quarter of 2019, but it was still stronger than most economists had expected, with Germany avoiding a recession and Italy returning to growth. Meanwhile eurozone equity markets are up a respectable 13% over the year to date. Does this mean Europe is emerging from its economic soft patch?

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

May 03rd 2019

Multinationals and investors are looking to India to deliver the next great surge in sales of consumer goods and services. But demand will not expand in a linear fashion as GDP increases. The acceleration phenomenon dictates that sales of different products and services will grow in leaps and bounds as cohorts of new consumers surpass key income thresholds.

Gavekal Research

Tom Miller

Apr 18th 2019

India’s cacophonous exercise in democracy is well underway and polling suggests there is only a 50% chance of a Narendra Modi-led BJP holding onto power. Tom dives into the details of why the “bear-hugging” reformer has electoral problems this time around. Tom also considers the likely outcome of the election for Indian asset markets.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand

Apr 09th 2019

Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer, Udith Sikand

Apr 05th 2019

In yesterday’s Gavekal Research Conference Call, Will Denyer and Udith Sikand addressed the changing US dollar liquidity environment, and its impact on markets.

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews

Mar 27th 2019

Europe has an ambivalent relationship with China that is increasingly under scrutiny. The European Commission recently labelled China a “systemic rival” and France and Germany want to create corporate champions to compete against Chinese state owned enterprises. Europe, however, is not singing from the same hymn sheet.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Mar 15th 2019

The Federal Reserve is debating a fundamental shift in its inflation targeting. Right now it's targeting 2% inflation no matter what it has been in the past, a so-called "bygones" policy. In this video interview Will discusses the consequences of switching to price-level targeting, where the aim is to keep average inflation over time at 2%.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Mar 06th 2019

The US Federal Reserve has said it is likely to end its process of balance sheet “normalization” sooner than previously planned. This sounds like an obscure monetary technicality, but it has important implications for investors. In this video interview Will explains why.

Gavekal Research

Dan Wang

Feb 15th 2019

More constructive rhetoric suggests the US and China may be about to strike a truce on tariffs and market access. However, that does not mean they are about to bury the hatchet. Powerful groups in Washington want to contain China’s rise as a technological power, and the US has many tools at its disposal even if it drops tariffs.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Feb 04th 2019

The US labor market is sending apparently contradictory signals. On one hand the unemployment rate ticked higher in January. On the other, job creation was much stronger than expected. Will looks behind the latest data points to examine the labor market’s underlying trends, and concludes they spell relatively bullish news for the US economy and risk assets over the coming months.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Jan 17th 2019

As the US government shutdown threatens to enter its fifth week, Will looks back at previous shutdowns to weigh the likely impact on America’s economy and financial markets, against the backdrop of an aging economic cycle, flattening yield curve and tighter financial conditions.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave

Dec 13th 2018

In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave shared their perspectives on a year which has been challenging for all asset classes, and offered their thoughts on what could be in store for investors in 2019.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave

Nov 09th 2018

At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Udith Sikand, Long Chen

Oct 30th 2018

At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky

Oct 11th 2018

In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Sep 03rd 2018

With the exception of US equities, about the only other way most investors could have achieved a positive return this year was to have held US dollar cash. That has made for a very strange investment environment that few people saw coming. In this video interview, Louis reviews the experience of the last eight months and outlines potential scenarios for the remainder of 2018.

Gavekal Research

Dan Wang

Jul 17th 2018

China has an ambitious industrial upgrading plan, called Made in China 2025, which targets Chinese leadership in about 30 technological segments. In this video interview Dan explains how the government aims to achieve this, how this plan differs from previous Chinese policy goals, and whether it is likely to succeed.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Charles Gave

Jun 11th 2018

During Friday’s monthly call, Louis Gave addressed the direction of the US dollar and the impact of expanding US fiscal deficits. Anatole Kaletsky focused on the rise of populist politics, which remains his major concern. Charles Gave considered the impact of resurgent nationalism on the investment environment. There was also significant discussion of the oil price with Anatole and Louis taking differing positions.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

May 31st 2018

In elections earlier this month, Mahathir Mohamad stunnned Malaysia, defeating the party he led for 20 years to become the country’s new prime minister. In this short video interview, Udith examines Mahathir’s policy platform, and asks whether the resurgent 92-year-old can really rejuvenate Malaysia’s economy.

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber

Apr 18th 2018

During yesterday’s monthly call, Arthur Kroeber addressed rising geoeconomic and geopolitical tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. He argued that US moves against China ran far deeper than trade tariffs as actors across the political spectrum in Washington were intent on changing China’s basic economic model, something that Beijing will likely fiercely resist. Much of his focus was on the tech sector, which is front-and-center of...

Gavekal Dragonomics

Tom Miller

Apr 05th 2018

In this lively presentation from our recent London seminar, Tom Miller outlines the dramatic political changes that have been taking place in China. He explains what Xi Jinping’s new status means for economic policy and governance, and how the links between the Communist Party and the state are being strengthened.

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Cedric Gemehl, Anatole Kaletsky

Mar 23rd 2018

In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

Gavekal Research

Mar 12th 2018

In last week’s Research Conference Call Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews presented a thematic approach for playing the European growth story. Cedric explained why the major stock indexes fail to capture the geographical and sectoral potential in Europe, and Nick proposed specific investment themes that should allow investors to benefit from Europe’s continued expansion.

Gavekal Research

Feb 19th 2018

In last week’s Research Conference Call Andrew Batson outlined the risks—both downside and upside—to the Chinese economy in 2018. Yanmei Xie focused on the risk of overzealous implementation of policy. This is especially the case for environmental regulations, which gave Beijing an uncharacteristically smog-free winter, but at the cost of a natural gas shortage.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Feb 02nd 2018

Will outlines his view that real growth in the US will remain stable this year and that inflation will pick up, and discusses what this means for asset prices and portfolio construction.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber

Jan 17th 2018

In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair. Arthur Kroeber updated his view on China’s likely impact on global commodity markets.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Nov 29th 2017

India reports its third quarter GDP tomorrow and Udith offers an assessment of the economy. He expect the official numbers to show a pick-up in growth due to firms restocking after the rollout of the new Goods & Services Tax and thinks this trajectory will continue through to next year. He advise investors to stick with richly-valued equities, treat bonds cautiously and not worry too much about a currency correction.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Nov 10th 2017

Udith presented on India during Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar in November. This video also includes relevant excerpts from the question and answer session.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Long Chen, Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave

Oct 30th 2017

Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Oct 18th 2017

After Louis wrote up today’s Daily on the strange dichotomy between strong growth and moribund yields, we sat down to quiz him further on how this contradiction gets resolved. In this short video, he explains why the bond market is the thing that will probably have to give.

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave

Oct 11th 2017

In yesterday's monthly call Charles Gave outlined his bullish view on Japan. He argued that Japan has exited its long debt trap and is about to start a new cycle that will be substantially driven by capital spending. The fact that corporate Japan is sitting on US$4trn of domestic savings means this expansion can be funded without borrowing and so the risk of an interest rate shock is negligible. He also argued that the Bank of Japan is on...

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Sep 08th 2017

In yesterday’s monthly call Louis Gave presented his view on the global investment outlook for the rest of the year. He argued that the key story so far in 2017 has been the strong performance of Asian equities, which has added a second leg to a bull market led by US technology and consumer stocks. The question is whether this can last.

Gavekal Research

Tom Miller, Udith Sikand

Aug 10th 2017

In this week's call Tom Miller and Udith Sikand presented their view on India's macroeconomic situation and opportunities for foreign investors. Tom outlined the broad macro fundamentals and assessed the Modi government's progress in reforming the economy. Udith presented the investment consequences, expecting a capex revival to begin as soon as next year.

Gavekal Research

Thomas Gatley, Long Chen

Jul 13th 2017

Recent efforts to open up China's stock and bond markets have granted deeper access for foreign investors. In Tuesday's conference call Thomas Gatley outlined what MSCI's decision to include A-shares in its indexes means for investors, while Chen Long argued that the next great bond bull market may happen in China.

Gavekal Research

Yanmei Xie

Jul 06th 2017

In this brief video interview Yanmei Xie outlines the ever-shrinking list of options the US has for solving the problem of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The risk of military action remains slim, but with North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile it is no longer unthinkable.

Gavekal Research

Neil Newman

Jun 09th 2017

Japanese equities recently touched a 17-year high in US dollar terms and perhaps more significantly, they appear to have decoupled from their usually tight inverse relationship with the yen. In this video interview Neil considers both cyclical and structural reasons for the apparent breakout and concludes that investors should not underweight a market that has plenty of tailwinds.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

May 24th 2017

In this interview Udith discusses the key developments in India’s macro economy and markets, which have been clouded by the demonetization episode and yet more changes to national economic statistics. The fog may not be about to clear as the government prepares to roll out a new national goods and sales tax with the potential for significant economic disruption.

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews

May 15th 2017

The consensus is for a tortuous few years of negotiations between the UK and the European Union over the terms of Brexit and any subsequent free trade agreement. Following up on today’s Daily, Nick argues in this video interview that a deal may be easier than most people think. Moreover, the template for an FTA may already be in place.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky

Apr 25th 2017

In a special Gavekal Research Conference Call following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their analysis of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s prospects in the second round in two weeks. Anatole Kaletsky presented his view of British politics and the future of the Brexit process following Theresa May calling for a snap election in June.

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave

Apr 12th 2017

In this follow-up to yesterday’s interview Charles outlines how investors can position themselves to hedge against a European Union breakup scenario that would likely follow from a Le Pen victory in the French presidential election.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky

Apr 05th 2017

In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky

Mar 17th 2017

Yesterday’s call had Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky opine on political risk leading up to French and German national elections later this year. Nick Andrews argued that the eurozone recovery is becoming self-sustaining, and offered views on capturing the upside, while hedging against political risk.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer

Feb 22nd 2017

Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Feb 14th 2017

Udith discusses the effects of India's demonetization last year on the growth of the economy

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber, Charles Gave, Will Denyer

Jan 18th 2017

Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber

Jan 17th 2017

Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews, Stefano Capacci

Nov 23rd 2016

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, attention has shifted to the eurozone with the assumption that more dominos must topple under the gathering populist political wave. In this video interview Nick considers the good, the bad and the ugly of the European political scene and offers pointers for navigating these risks.