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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Behind The Market's Mood Swings

    In recent weeks some of the biggest US equity winners since the start of the Covid-19 crisis have appeared to run out of steam, as the Federal Reserve abstained from stepping up its asset purchases. Meanwhile, Congressional gridlock seems to stand in the way of renewed stimulus for American consumers. Will is not too concerned, and in this interview points out that the Fed still has ample ammunition, and that the strength of the US recovery...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Taking Stock Of US-China Decoupling

    In yesterday’s webinar, Andrew Batson presented an overview of where the Chinese economy is going and how the relationship with the US is evolving, and Dan Wang addressed recent US actions in the technological rivalry between the two countries, particularly the latest executive orders on WeChat and TikTok.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US Fiscal Seesaw

    There are some signs that Democrats and Republicans are inching towards a new spending deal to provide "enhanced" benefits to struggling companies and unemployed Americans. Yanmei argues that such a resolution would certainly buttress demand going into the winter season but a "no deal" outcome would not necessarily spell disaster for a US economy that is learning to live with Covid-19.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Embattled India

    India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy, exacerbating a slowdown that was already underway. In addition, India is engaged in a high-stakes standff with China over its Himalayan border, which may force an economic decoupling of the two countries.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: From Bearish To (Conditionally) Bullish

    Anatole and Will presented their views on the efficacy of US fiscal and monetary policy in response to the Covid crisis, and outlined the prospects for the economy and asset markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Assessing The Midwest Outbreak

    While the pandemic continues to ravage the US, the last month has seen rates of infection decline across most of the country. That situation has recently reversed in some low-population Midwestern states, but on balance the US has learnt to live with Covid, and therefore a resurgence in the fall will not result in the kind of disruption seen in March and April.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable (in French), Sept 2020

    In a turbulent economic environment, Louis sought to identify assets with “anti-fragile” qualities; Cedric deciphered the message from European markets; Didier Darcet refreshed refresh an old Gavekal framework with “Four Quadrants 2.0” and Charles moderated the discussion.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, September 2020

    Charles Gave, Louis Gave and Will Denyer joined Arthur Kroeber at the global investment roundtable to discuss what's going on in the global economy. Charles identified three big trends that will affect the investment environment in the long term, Will gave an in-dept update on the US economy, and Louis examined where to find assets with “anti-fragile” properties.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Covid-19's Investment Implications For Asia

    Asia has handled the pandemic decently well and its solid macroeconomic fundamentals means it does not face any kind of solvency crisis. The problem for investors is that the growth outlook remains pretty grim, with limited prospects for a swift improvement. As a result, investors should stick with local currency bonds, which look well set in this environment.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A South China Sea October Surprise?

    Tensions in the South China Sea between the US and China are ramping up during a presidential campaign where the incumbent has set himself on a collision course with China. You do not have to be a crazed conspiracy theorist to wonder if this theatre could be the scene of an “October Surprise”.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The State Of The US Recovery

    Pandemic aside, the US faces a looming fiscal cliff and rising political risk as the presidential election campaign starts proper. So why is Will so sanguine about the country’s economic prospects? In this video interview, he explains his position.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Joe Biden Presidency?

    With the US presidential election less than three months away, polling suggests Joe Biden and the Democrats have a chance at a clean sweep of the White House and Congress. While Biden has been open about wanting to raise taxes and tackle climate change, he would inherit an economy still reeling from the coronavirus shock. With this in mind, Yanmei outlines what the 100 first days of a Biden presidency are likely to look like.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, July 2020

    In our monthly Global Investment Roundtable, US analyst Tan Kai Xian analyzed the latest US data and assessed the risk that the present economic stall-out turns into a double-dip recession. Arthur Kroeber explained why the Trump Administration has amped up its Cold War rhetoric on China. Anatole Kaletsky tied it all together and tried to explain the recent movements in global markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Hong Kong Sanctions Regime

    As US-China tensions amp up, Hong Kong faces US actions in response to the national security law imposed by the Chinese government. This includes an end to preferential trade treatment and penalties for foreign financial institutions that transact with officials found to be undermining the city’s freedoms. In this video interview, Dan explains how the program will play out and addresses the question of whether the US government will target Hong...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Fiscal Cliff Approaches

    With the Covid-19 outbreak in the US still worsening, special unemployment benefits that have provided a lifeline for 17mn Americans stand to expire at the end of next week. Yet unlike in March, there is scant appetite in Washington DC for a swift bipartisan deal to extend support for the jobless. In this video interview, Yanmei explains what is at stake for the US economy if politicians cannot make a deal before heading off for their summer...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Direction For Europe

    Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews joined Louis Gave to talk about what lies in store for the European Union in light of Tuesdays agreement on a €750 billion Covid-19 recovery fund.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Singapore's Policy Path

    Just days after securing another five years in power at the ballot box, Singapore’s government announced that the island republic’s gross domestic product contracted a worse-than-expected -12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, with large accumulated fiscal reserves, the government has considerable scope to spend in order to stimulate Singapore’s economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Capital And Bond Markets

    On Tuesday morning Thomas Gatley and Wei He joined Arthur Kroeber to discuss the Chinese equity bull market and the major reversal in the bond market.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: What To Make Of Britain’s £30bn Stimulus

    This week UK Chancellor of the Exchequer “Dishy” Rishi Sunak lived up to his media nickname, dishing out an additional £30bn in fiscal support and stimulus measures. In this short video interview, Nick assesses their likely impact.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: A New European Dawn?

    Yesterday Nick and Cedric presented on the topic of their latest Strategy Monthly: A New European Dawn. In this they argue that Europe is finally embracing fundamental reform that should change the investment environment. Anatole offered his take on why the European Union is heading in a “Hamiltonian” direction.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Singapore Beyond July's Election

    Although a new opposition political party is making Singapore’s current election season somewhat more interesting than past campaigns, the outcome is not in doubt: the ruling People’s Action Party will be confirmed in power for another five-year term. In this short video interview, Vincent looks beyond the July 10 poll to survey the economic and market outlook for the island republic.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, June 2020

    Yesterday Louis Gave, Will Denyer and Andrew Batson joined Arthur Kroeber at the Global Investment Roundtable. They discussed the economic growth and market situation in the US, the state of the Chinese recovery, and what a post-Covid-19 world might look like.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Update (French), June 2020

    In yesterday's webinar for our Francophone audience, Charles and Louis Gave, Cedric Gemehl and Didier Darcet updated viewers on their views of asset markets and government responses to the economic calamity caused by Covid-19.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Behind The Resilience Of Hong Kong's Markets

    Hong Kong has been beset by a string of bad news, from mass street protests, through Covid-19, to national security legislation of unknown scope and severity imposed by the mainland. Yet you wouldn’t guess it from looking at the city’s property market—the world’s priciest—or its stock market where several mainland tech companies are lining up to do their initial public offerings. Vincent explains the disconnect.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: High Stakes In The Himalayas

    In this video, Udith argues that the mayhem seen on the India-China border this week will provide another catalyst for Indian nationalists who want to lessen the country’s reliance on China, even if that means accepting far slower economic growth.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Emerging Market Update, June 2020

    In yesterday’s webinar, Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui and Tom Miller joined Arthur Kroeber to present the general outlook for emerging market assets and currencies, as well as discuss the situation in India.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Threat To Chinese Tech

    The US is deepening its effort to limit Chinese technology giant Huawei’s access to components that rely on American design, which may prevent Huawei from rolling out 5G networks. The US is also broadening its efforts to constrain Mainland tech firms by using sanctions that impact suppliers to China’s government and military.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Upsurge In Oil

    The price of Brent crude oil has doubled in the past six weeks, supported by the beginning of a recovery in demand as economies come out of lockdown and by expectations that the Opec+ cartel will extend the deep production cuts it agreed in April. Tom weighs the forces likely to drive the oil market over the coming months.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: China's Economic Outlook After The NPC

    China research director Andrew Batson was joined by China macroeconomist Wei He and Asia analyst Vincent Tsui to discuss the news from the National People's Congress and what it means for China's economic recovery, the likely direction of fiscal and monetary policy, and the consequences of Hong Kong's national security law.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2020

    Yesterday Louis Gave, Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky joined Arthur Kroeber at the Global Investment Roundtable. They discussed different scenarios for how and when the world’s major economies can exit the Covid-19 crisis and what it means for investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Will The Bank Of England Go Negative?

    Having long resisted the lure of negative interest rates, policymakers at the Bank of England have recently admitted that they are considering a cut in the UK’s main bank rate to below zero.Nick examines the pros and cons of negative interest rates, and weighs the probability that the Bank of England will indeed enter negative rate territory for the first time.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Future Of Hong Kong

    Louis Gave, Simon Pritchard and Vincent Tsui joined Arthur Kroeber to talk about the national security law which China's National People's Congress announced it will implement in Hong Kong, and what this could mean for Hong Kong's future as a global financial center.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: US Outlook (May 2020)

    In yesterday's webinar, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian and Yanmei Xie joined Simon to discuss the outlook for the US and answer viewer questions as the country tries to return to normal after Covid-19 lockdowns.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Pressure Points In Emerging Markets

    Emerging markets have broadly weathered the liquidity squeeze that threatened to engulf them in March, however Udith is not convinced they are out of the woods. Growth shocks associated with the Covid-19 crisis mean that many smaller markets on the frontier are at risk of debt defaults, which could end up spurring forced selling by foreign investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe Update (May 2020)

    In yesterday's webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews joined Louis Gave to assess policy measures to deal with Covid-19 in Europe and discuss the significance of a €500bn coronavirus Recovery Fund.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China And The US Race Toward The Precipice

    The rivalry between the US and China has taken a turn for the worse during the Covid-19 pandemic. In yesterday’s webinar, Tom Miller talked about how China has attempted to use the pandemic in its global influence strategy. Dan Wang updated viewers on the technology rivalry. And Arthur Kroeber outlined how the US-China relationship got to this point.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Kitsune Market — Tail Risks In An Unnatural Time

    Most of the world’s big economies have been shut down in response to a pandemic disease—a truly unprecedented event. This led to extreme market moves and also generated an unusually large array of tail risks. Louis likens these to the nine tails of the magical kitsune or fox of Japanese mythology. In yesterday's webinar he elaborated on this idea.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: In Defense Of US Equities

    With most big US firms having reported their first quarter earnings, the picture is not pretty and worse may follow in 2Q20. Yet the stock market rally of the last six weeks suggests that investors have a fairly cheery view about US firms’ prospects. So what gives? Near-term expectations are, in fact, appropriately set and the fundamentals of the US market are better than they appear.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China And Emerging Markets Update

    China has started to reopen its economy, but it is proving hard to get Chinese consumers and small businesses up and running again. He Wei and Andrew Batson provided the latest updates on policy efforts to revive China’s economy. Udith Sikand reviewed the broader outlook for emerging markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Pandemics, Protests And Outperformance

    Hong Kong’s GDP contracted almost -9% year-on-year in the first quarter, as the impact of the coronavirus hammered an economy already severely weakened by the last year’s anti-government street protests. In this video interview, Tom examines the storms battering Asia’s premier financial center, and accounts for the resilience of its financial system.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: What Does Covid-19 Mean For Emerging Markets?

    So far the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have been a less significant health event in most emerging markets. Yet EMs are bound to suffer a lot of economic damage not only from their own lockdowns but also from the demand collapse in Europe and the US. Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui analyzed where the investment opportunities lie, and Tom Miller offered the prognosis for India.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2020

    Markets are showing both signs of dislocation (in negative oil prices) and impressive stability (the S&P 500 is only down -4.1% over the previous 12 months). Is this stability a Federal Reserve-induced illusion? Are there more shocks to come? If so, where? In our monthly investment roundtable, Louis, Charles and Anatole discussed market scenarios for the months ahead.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US’s Exit From Lockdown

    The United States is moving towards a release from its lockdown. With individual states treading different paths, the process looks messy and accident-prone. However, Yanmei argues that investors should look through the noise of states’ rights arguments as the US is cranking up Covid-19 testing and generally heading in the right direction.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Modeling Projections For The Covid-19 Epidemic

    Gavekal Intelligence Software is collaborating with ETH Zurich and Shenzhen's Southern University of Science & Technology to track the spread of Covid-19. GIS principal Didier Darcet presented the findings in a conversation with Louis Gave

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Investing In A Time Of Covid-19 (French)

    Charles Gave Louis Gave, and Cedric Gemehl, along with principal of Gavekal Intelligence Software Didier Darcet, participated in a French-speaking webinar. They discussed the global investment outlook in light of the latest Covid-19 tracking data, and how to invest in a world dominated by central banks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Outlook For China Consumption, Labor Markets And Supply Chains

    In Thursday's webinar, Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented the findings of RedTech's consumer surveys in China. Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui outlined the status of China's labor markets and how they relate to consumption, and Dan Wang spoke on what the Covid-19 crisis is doing to supply chains both in China and globally.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: North Korea's Succession Question

    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed to show up to last week’s celebration of the birthday of his grandfather, North Korea’s founder Kim Il-sung, sparking vivid speculation about his health and the chain of succession in the isolated country. In this video interview Yanmei breaks down what could happen in a power vacuum left by the supreme leader.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Outlook For The US Economy And Global Markets

    In Tuesday's webinar, Will Denyer reviewed the economic situation in the US and suggested how investors should position their portfolios, and Louis Gave presented his global macroeconomic view, taking into account the remarkable developments in the oil market.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Markets Outlook For The World And China

    In Thursday’s webinar, Thomas Gatley explained why China’s corporate sector is weathering the country’s downturn with relative ease and Louis Gave offered a global strategy view for investing in a Post Covid-19 world.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Europe's Unfinished Business

    Eurozone finance ministers attempted to put a positive spin on the no strings €500bn Covid-19 relief package they agreed last week. But everyone is unhappy with the deal. With Italy’s debt to GDP ratio set to soar, Rome is calling for the mutualization of debt among eurozone economies; something Berlin and the Hague have ruled out.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Will Covid-19 Tear Europe Apart?

    Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews discussed the Covid-19 outbreak in Europe and the unprecedented poilcy responses taken both to combat its spread and help the economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Outlook For China And Emerging Markets

    Arthur Kroeber spoke on the macro situation in China. Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented their work on consumer sentiment and activity in China. Udith Sikand gave a rundown of what's happening in emerging markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US Economic Response

    The US government has promised unprecedented support to individuals and businesses who face loss of income as a result of Covid-19. Will Denyer weighs the measures to see if they will be enough to sufficiently limit the economic damage wrought.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Looking Through The Lockdowns

    Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Road To Recovery Or Road To Serfdom?

    To deal with the economic fallout from unprecedented lockdown measures aimed at halting the spread of Covid-19, governments and central banks in the US and Europe are pulling out all the stops to pop up financial systems and avoid economic collapse. Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave joined Louis Gave to discuss the long term consequences.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US Can Do A V-Shaped Recovery

    The US economy can be assumed to already be in recession, yet KX is relatively confident in its ability to generate a V-shaped recovery once lockdowns are materially eased.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: China's Recovery From Covid-19 Lockdown

    At Wednesday's webinar, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley and Wei He discussed how China is recovering from the lockdown imposed to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, and the outlook for the economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: What's Up With The Pound

    Along with other second-tier currencies the British pound fell steeply between early and mid-March as investors dashed to get their hands on US dollar cash. That US dollar liquidity squeeze has now eased, and sterling has found a near-term bottom. But the outlook for the British currency remains clouded amid the UK’s coronavirus lockdown.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Covid-19, Markets And The Economy

    At Thursday’s webinar, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Andrew Batson discussed the Covid-19 outbreak and the consequences for financial markets and the economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Time For A Fiscal Union?

    The coronavirus pandemic, with its calls for a coordinated European Union-wide fiscal stimulus to counter the inevitable economic ill-effects, would appear to be the ideal opportunity to press forward with the next big step towards European integration by forging a eurozone fiscal union. But things are not so simple.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Regime Change In The Oil Market

    The breakup of the Opec+ oil cartel and the ensuing price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia triggered a -30% fall in the price of oil and spooked financial markets. Moscow has upended the monopolistic pricing regime that has supported the price of oil over the last three years. Tom Holland examines the consequences of the oil market’s regime change.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2020

    In Thursday’s conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Andrew Batson and Cedric Gemehl discussed the policy and market reactions to the Covid-19 outbreak.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: What Can The ECB Do?

    This week the US federal Reserve cut interest rates to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and the European Central Bank promised to follow suit with “appropriate” measures of its own. But eurozone policy rates are already negative, which severely limits the scope for further cuts.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Still The Safest Port In A Macro Storm

    It took a while, but fear of contagion is gripping Wall Street. In the last week, the S&P 500 has fallen -8%, while 10-year US treasury bills have hit a new all-time low. Yet the risk-off move in US asset markets triggered by worries the coronavirus epidemic is turning into a global pandemic is at odds with underlying US fundamentals.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Will The Economic Contagion Hit Europe?

    Europe’s financial markets are sending mixed signals. On one hand, fears about the eurozone's exposure to China’s coronavirus-hit economy have pushed the euro to a 21-month low against the US dollar. On the other, euro-denominated stocks are hitting record highs. In this interview Nick examines the mixed message.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Hong Kong's Viral Woes

    For Hong Kong’s economy, already in recession after eight months of anti-government street protests, the Chinese coronavirus outbreak comes as a fresh blow falling on the existing bruise. Inevitably, the effect will be painful. Yet as Vincent explains, the Hong Kong economy has considerable resilience.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call February 2020

    In yesterday’s research call, Vincent Tsui and Tom Holland joined Arthur Kroeber to discuss the coronavirus outbreak, what it means for Chinese and regional economic growth, and how investors should position themselves during this period of rapid news flow and high market volatility.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: When Oil Hits The Floor

    No financial market has been hit more heavily by the Wuhan coronavirus than oil, with the price of crude falling by more than -20% from its early-January high on fears the outbreak will crush China’s demand for fuels. In this short video, Tom examines the global implications of the oil price slide, and asks “where next?” for the price of the world’s key commodity.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: On Target In China?

    In 2015 the Chinese government set out its 13th five-year plan, with economic and social targets that it aimed to hit by the end of 2020. The five-year plans are important because the government derives legitimacy from improving people’s livelihoods. The Dragonomics team has examined seven such targets and their impact on the economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: US Autos Ride Again

    A range of cyclical and structural factors have conspired to hit US auto sales in recent years. But with the US labor market remaining in rude health and US monetary policy being loosened, that may be about to change. The impact could be positive for US growth and for risk assets, argues KX in this interview.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Taiwan Chooses, Hong Kong Reacts

    Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday in a presidential election where pro-independence incumbent Tsai Ing-wen looks like a shoo-in against the more China-friendly Kuomintang candidate. Tsai is unlikely to push China’s red lines and cross-strait relations should not be imperiled. Vincent also addresses the related issue of Beijing replacing its top representative in Hong Kong with a senior apparatchik.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call January 2020

    The past few weeks have seen Chinese policymakers signaling clearly that the campaign of selective easing begun last year will be carried on into 2020 even as growth continues to slow. With trade war risk lowered, and the electronics and auto sector cycles bottoming out, the outlook for equity and bond markets is fairly benign.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio — Gavekal Research Call December 2019

    In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer reviewed the current investment environment and outlined their expectations for 2020.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India’s Economic Malaise

    India’s economy has slowed down dramatically from around 8% growth a little over a year ago to 4.5% in the most recent quarter. Udith reckons the primary causes of this are domestic factors, as the financial system has continued to struggle while the policy response is too weak to be effective. The risk for the rupee is to the downside.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Upside-down Europe

    Ever since the European debt crisis Germany has outperformed the rest of Europe thanks to booming external demand, while the rest of the continent suffered from a restrictive policy mix. However, lately these conditions seem to be reversing, with Germany suffering from a collapse in its crucial auto industry. Cedric discusses this shift and outlines the implications for investors.

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    Seminar Series Multimedia — Fall 2019

    Partners and analysts present their core ideas for the big economic regions and global markets heading into the year-end and looking forward to 2020.

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    Video: A Better Outlook For Asia?

    Despite on-again, off-again talks, there are hopes that the US and China can reach an accommodation to avert a full-scale trade war that causes global production chains to be upended. Since the Federal Reserve is again in easing mode, leading to a weaker US dollar, Vincent explains what these developments mean for Asia.

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    Video: A Turning Point For The Dollar

    For the last five years, the world has lived with a strong US dollar. That may be about to change. Not only has the Fed turned dovish, its return to balance sheet expansion means it is now printing more money each month than its central bank peers, such as the ECB. This liquidity splurge, coupled with a diminution of dollar-supportive international risks may point to a period of US dollar weakness.

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    Video: In Search Of Policy Traction

    New European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has called on European governments to do more on the fiscal front to support eurozone growth. Only Germany has wiggle room within the EU fiscal straitjacket to launch a significant stimulus program. However, political resistance in Berlin to opening the spending taps remains formidable, and may be insurmountable.

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    Video: China's Private Financing Woes

    Chinese credit growth picked up in September, which is good news at the margin for private sector liquidity. However, a continued crackdown on shadow finance and private firms’ difficultly rolling over bond obligations will retard capital spending and lead to more bond defaults into next year.

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    Video: Playing The Un-inversion

    Having inverted over the summer, the US yield curve has steepened sharply. In the past such a move has often presaged recession—but not always. Twice since the 1960s an inversion and steepening was not followed by recession. Then, as now, the return on invested corporate capital was higher than the cost of that capital.

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    Video: The End Of The Trend?

    For the past few years, US treasuries, the US dollar and the oil price have all broadly traded in a range. In fact, the only bankable trend for investors has been the outperformance of US equities, without which global stock indexes would still be trading at 2006 levels. However, there are signs that the investment environment is changing.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2019

    Vincent outlined EM Asia's "great moderation", as inflation is diverging from other emerging markets, creating opportunities in bonds. Udith argued that Indian growth may be bottoming out but a bad banking picture means that equities may have more downside. Tom addressed the remaking of Asian supply chains in light of the US-China trade war.

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    Video: India's Banking Blues

    A tweet by the Reserve Bank of India caused a bit of a stir last week, saying that the “…Indian banking system is safe and stable and there is no need to panic…”. It was after a small regional bank had been effectively put into receivership. While this doesn't pose a systemic risk, it's another consequence of Indian banks’ decade-old bad loan problem.

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    Video: Where The Fed Stands

    Investors are nervous about weak US data and a liquidity squeeze in the US repo markets. They are now looking to the Federal Reserve for reassurance. In this video, Will tells us what policy changes to expect from the Fed at the end of this month and why.

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    Video: Where Next Hong Kong?

    Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam today begins a process of civic engagement aimed at bridging the divide between an unpopular government and a diffuse movement that has engaged in 17 weeks of violent protest. Simon discusses whether economic goodies can buy off dissent and assesses the chances of a compromise political settlement.

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    Video: What Next In The Tech War

    Washington views China as a strategic competitor, and the White House has promised a “whole of government” effort to constrain China’s development of key advanced technologies. Dan examines the three ways in which the US is making life difficult for Chinese tech companies, and explores other weapons the US could deploy should the tech war escalate.

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    Video: Washington, Iran And The Price Of Oil

    This week’s sacking of John Bolton as White House national security advisor triggered a fall in the price of oil as traders concluded the notorious war hawk’s departure paved the way for a relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That may be unlikely; US officials insist their policy of “maximum” pressure on Iran remains in force.

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    Video: Italian Politics Favors Bonds

    Yesterday Italy’s new government took office, the 66th since 1946. Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have reached record lows. Nick attributes this to two factors. First the global bond rally. Second, the shifting winds of Italian politics away from the Euroskeptics to the Europhiles, which bodes well for Italian-European budget negotiations.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2019

    In yesterday’s conference call, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave outlined reasons for recent dramatic moves in bond markets and made arguments for what comes next. Anatole also addressed Brexit developments and Louis discussed the situation in Hong Kong.

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    Video: Looking Through The Bond Bubble

    As yields fall to record lows, bond markets seem priced for some sort of global economic calamity. With Europe in dire straits and the US-China trade war remaining live, there is certainly cause for worry. But when things look like they can’t get any worse, Will reckons, they often don’t. As the US growth outlook appears steady, equities and cash are the better bet.

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    Video: The Anatomy Of The August Panic

    As more and more government bonds around the world slide into negative yield, investors can draw one of two conclusions: either the world faces an economic meltdown, or there is a buying panic in safe assets. But although there is indeed a synchronous global slowdown in growth, Louis favors the latter explanation.

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    Video: Enter Boris

    In the last week or so, the pound has fallen sharply to a two-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar. That’s all down to the new British government, headed by Boris Johnson, and his "do or die" Brexit campaign. But when a deal is finally struck, Britain’s strong economic fundamentals mean it is well placed for a boost in growth, along with the pound.

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    Video: Korea's Coping Strategy

    No other G20 economy is as exposed to global trade tensions as Korea. With its heavy dependence on semiconductor manufacturing, Korea has proved vulnerable both to the US-China economic cold war, and to long-running disputes between Seoul and Tokyo. As a result, exports have cratered and economists have slashed their Korean growth forecasts.

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    Video: Modi's Second Term Challenges

    Indian prime minister Narendra Modi faces some daunting economic challenges in his second term. As Udith explains in this interview, the biggest is to create new jobs India needs. In the coming decades, India must generate some 10mn new jobs every year simply to provide employment for the cohort of young Indians set to enter the workforce.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2019

    In yesterday’s Gavekal Research conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber conducted a mid-year review of the investment environment and outlined their expectations for the rest of the year onward.

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    Video: What Is Libra, And Will It Work?

    Facebook will have an uphill battle trying to convince consumers to adopt its announced digital currency, libra. As it will be backed by a basket of assets denominated in different currencies, the prices of goods and services will be more volatile in libra than in existing local currencies, even in emerging markets. This volatility will deter consumers from making the switch.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

    Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.

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    Video: China's Three Vulnerabilities

    Even if Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping leave the G-20 meeting in Osaka next week with a trade deal in hand, the broader rivalry will continue. In this extensive video interview Louis identifies three ways in which China is vulnerable to US pressure and explains how this may impact investors.

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    Video: Bull Markets Don't Die Of Old Age

    The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish...

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