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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave
Mar 05th 2021
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, March 2021
As Covid-19 vaccinations are cranked up and Congress gets ready to dole out stimulus measures, US growth expectations have risen along with inflation concerns. In response, bonds have sold off and equity markets have shuddered. In our monthly global investment roundtable, Gavekal partners discussed this confluence of events and addressed what it means for risk assets.
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Gavekal Research
Vincent Tsui
Mar 04th 2021
Video: Will Bond Yields Topple Asia's EMs?
Rising treasury yields are rarely a good thing for emerging markets, as this implies tighter financing conditions. The good news of sorts is that Asia's external position is strong due to buoyant exports, yet domestic demand has been constrained by the pandemic and a slow vaccine rollout.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky
Feb 26th 2021
Webinar: Europe And The Politics Of Exiting The Pandemic
Europe is at a strange juncture, as governments remain committed to massive fiscal and monetary support and refuse to rush into any economic reopening before Covid vaccinations are deployed. Yet despite this collective risk aversion, Italy has appointed a new technocratic government run by Mario Draghi that looks to have broad political support and a fairly radical plan for change. Our team explored Europe's exit from the pandemic and asked...
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Feb 25th 2021
Video: Bitcoin—Money Or Snakeoil?
Will Denyer examines the forces behind the eye-watering run-up and eye-popping volatility of bitcoin, and delves behind the near-term moves in crypto-currency markets to ask whether bitcoin and its ilk will ever gain traction as a unit of account, means of exchange or store of value.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui, Tom Miller
Feb 19th 2021
Webinar: Emerging Markets In The Next Phase Of The Pandemic
Emerging markets have had a strong run, fueled by floods of stimulus in developed markets. Much of that money has flowed to Asia, where export sectors have thrived on rich-world consumers’ demand for electronics and other goods. The question is whether Asian EMs will be able to keep up this outperformance as they lag far behind in the vaccination race. Our team addressed these issues, and considered whether commodity-based EMs can again have...
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Feb 10th 2021
Webinar: The Economic Impact Of A New Era
Vaccines, fiscal stimulus and cheap money are working together to bolster the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States. The US is also under new leadership with new priorities. Our US team of analysts explained what this all means for the economy and asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Feb 08th 2021
Video: An Indian Blowout?
Indian risk assets have ripped in response to last week's big-spending budget, and reports that a collapse in Covid-19 cases points to the country having achieved "herd immunity" ahead of max vaccinations. In this video, Udith considers both India's public health situation and the chances of fiscal stimulus kick-starting growth without spurring an adverse financial reaction.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Didier Darcet, Louis Gave
Feb 05th 2021
Webinar: Uncharted Territory And Portfolio Construction
Charles has sought to codify his many investment rules into a rigorous portfolio construction framework, which includes identifying periods when returns stop being normally distributed and move into the "tails". Right now markets could be going through a phase change, and in this webinar, he explained why. He was joined by Didier, who who heads the quant team in Paris, and Louis.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Feb 02nd 2021
Video: The State Of Biden’s Stimulus
After Joe Biden set out plans for a US$1.9trn mega-stimulus, US Senate Republicans have countered with proposals for a relatively meager US$600bn package. In this video interview, Yanmei examines the options and weighs the possible outcomes.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Cedric Gemehl, Didier Darcet
Jan 29th 2021
Webinar: French-Language Webinar, January 2021
With Europe being hit hard by a second wave of Covid-19 and facing fresh lockdowns, Charles and Cedric assessed the outlook for the region’s growth and inflation in both the short and medium term. The webinar also focused on portfolio construction work being done by our Paris team: quantitative head of research Didier and Charles trained their sights on behavioral finance and suggested a route map for managing money in a “post-Keynesian” world.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Ernan Cui, Rosealea Yao, Wei He
Jan 28th 2021
Webinar: The Outlook For China In 2021
China enters 2021 having achieved a world-leading recovery, but now faces a tricky balancing act to secure its economic trajectory. Ernan Cui, Rosealea Yao and Wei He discussed how the authorities are responding to the latest rebound in Covid cases, what their strategy is for dealing with a frothy property market, and how they will balance growth with financial stability.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jan 28th 2021
Video: The UK — At The Center Of The Maelstrom
It’s been an especially stormy start to the year for the United Kingdom, which finds itself at ground zero for the spread of a new and highly infectious strain of the coronavirus, even as it struggles to cope with withdrawal from the European Union’s single market and customs zone. Yet the UK’s financial markets are performing relatively respectably year-to-date as investors focus on the UK’s strong vaccination performance and look ahead to the...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Arthur Kroeber
Jan 22nd 2021
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2021
A Democratic US administration is set to control all arms of the US government for the first time since 2010. Will this mean a fiscal blowout, causing big changes in the pricing of treasuries and the US dollar? Louis, Anatole and Will assess the possibilities.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Jan 21st 2021
Video: The Good And Bad News For Emerging Markets
US president Joe Biden’s planned US$1.9trn fiscal support package for the American economy may provide a metaphorical shot in the arm for at least some emerging markets, partially offsetting the negative economic effects caused by the delayed rollout of actual coronavirus inoculations. Udith assesses the conflicting forces affecting emerging economies.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Jan 20th 2021
Webinar: Europe’s Cruel Winter
As the pandemic intensifies across Europe growth prospects in the first quarter are dimming, but investors are focused on a potential economic reopening by the spring. In yesterday’s webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Nick Andrews and Cedric Gemehl discussed whether markets are overly optimistic since the European Union seems to have botched its vaccine procurement strategy.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jan 14th 2021
Video: China's Post-Pandemic Roadmap
A year after Covid-19 was first revealed in China, the country has emerged as one of the key economic winners of the global pandemic. In this video interview, Arthur assesses how it did this and looks at the new priorities for Chinese industrial development in a world that has become less open and more suspicious of Chinese intentions. He seeks to answer these questions with reference to US trade and technology policy toward China as a new...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley, Wei He, Dan Wang
Dec 09th 2020
Webinar: China And The World Economy In 2021
Arthur Kroeber and Dan Wang sketched out the likely course of the US-China rivalry under the new Biden administration; He Wei and Thomas Gatley analyzed key developments in China's economy and markets, and Gavekal CEO Louis Gave presented his views on the forces shaping global markets.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Vincent Tsui, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Cedric Gemehl
Dec 04th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2020
The US equity market is seeing a switch from the winners of the pandemic like technology and online retail, to the beaten-up losers such as travel plays. At the same time, hopes for a strong economic recovery in 2021 are juicing up value stocks. Similar dynamics are being seen in other major markets. Our team of analysts discussed what happens next, and what’s in store in 2021.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Dec 04th 2020
Video: The Treasury’s Liquidity Programs And Markets
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has come under fire for failing to extend a number of the Treasury’s liquidity support programs into 2021. But as Will outlines in this short video interview, while the existence of the facilities that are set to expire helped to shore up sentiment back in March and April, they have been little used, and are now largely irrelevant in practical terms.
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Gavekal Research
Simon Pritchard, Tom Holland, Dan Wang, Vincent Tsui
Nov 26th 2020
Webinar: Hong Kong Under The National Security Law
Hong Kong has spent five months living under a tough national security law imposed on it from Beijing. The direct impact has been a sharp curtailment of opposition political activity that has sparked sanctions from the United States. Now, China has plans for more changes to Hong Kong's legal system, with a requirement for judges to be patriots. In yesterday’s webinar, Vincent Tsui, Dan Wang, Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard discussed the...