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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Jul 30th 2021
Webinar: Europe Caught Between Stools
The US has taken an approach to the pandemic that involves reopening and “living with Covid”, whereas most East Asian economies are heading down the "zero-Covid" path. Europe seems to be caught between these two stools. Which way Europe turns could have a big impact on global growth, the value of the euro and key asset values.
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Gavekal Research
Vincent Tsui
Jul 29th 2021
Video: The Semiconductor Crunch And Asian Exports
Apple's Tim Cook warned investors that it would face microchip shortages in the second half of the year. Yet last week, Taiwan Manufacturing Semiconductor said that it saw an abatement of the great chip shortage. In this video interview, Vincent seeks to reconcile these two statements, and explain what it all means for Asian exports.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Nick Andrews, Wei He, Vincent Tsui
Jul 23rd 2021
Webinar: The State Of Global Growth
The reflation trade has ebbed in recent weeks as investors have gotten more comfortable with the trajectory of US monetary policy and concerns have risen over the Delta variant of Covid disrupting economic opening. At the same time, China continues to crack down on its high-growth internet sector. Our team assessed the market implications of these trends.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer
Jul 22nd 2021
Video: The Debt Ceiling Is Back
After a two-year suspension, the US debt ceiling will soon be reimposed at current levels. Official estimates suggest that the Treasury can delay defaulting on its debt for three to four months. That is shorter than the five months the Treasury was able to delay during a similar standoff over the debt ceiling in 2019. Ultimately, Congress should act and default will be avoided.
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Gavekal Research
Michael Clendenin, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley
Jul 16th 2021
Webinar: What's Behind China's Internet Crackdown?
China's authorities have aggressively tightened regulation of the formerly free-wheeling internet sector. In this webinar, Gavekal RedTech principal Michael Clendenin joined Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui and Thomas Gatley to analyze the government's motives in the ever-widening crackdown, forecast the next regulatory moves and explain how investors can navigate the risks.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Jul 15th 2021
Video: The IMF Weighs In
Large emerging markets have managed through the pandemic decently well, yet the debilitating economic effects of Covid mean stresses are appearing among lower quality national borrowers. This is one reason that the International Monetary Fund is set to expand distribution of its "Special Drawing Rights" reserve-type asset by US$650bn.
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Gavekal Research
Wei He, Rosealea Yao, Thomas Gatley
Jul 09th 2021
Webinar: China's Conflicting Pressures In The Second Half
China is entering the second half of 2021 with its strong post-Covid economic momentum still intact, despite policymakers staying consistently hawkish on debt and property. In this webinar Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley outlined how these conflicting pressures will play out over the rest of the year, and discussed the potential for an easing of the policy stance.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jul 08th 2021
Video: How Brexit Britain Shapes Up
Six months after the UK properly left the European Union, the shape of the emerging post-Brexit economy is becoming a little clearer. Despite distorting effects from the pandemic, the impact on trade from being outside the EU’s single market can be seen, arguments about the UK’s position as a manufacturing hub can be tested and the future shape of Britain’s once super-charged financial services sector is coming into focus. Nick Andrews reviews...
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand
Jul 02nd 2021
Webinar: Can Things Really Keep Getting Better?
The US economy continues to break growth records as it reopens and other big regions may be set to go the same way, while Asia continues to prosper from a strong export outlook. The question is not whether the world economy slumps back into a funk, but whether growth expectations are now set too bullish.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jul 01st 2021
Video: Can Italy Recover?
In response to the Covid economic shock, the European Union has vowed to adopt more expansive fiscal responses and limited mutualization of national debts. The country where this approach will fall, or rise is Italy. In this interview, Nick offers a view on whether it will be enough for Italy to mount a comeback.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Jun 25th 2021
Webinar: Can Europe Normalize?
In yesterday's webinar, Cedric and Nick assessed the risks and opportunities associated with Europe's economic reopening, the effectiveness of the new Recovery Fund backed by mutualized debt, and the signs heading into a new political season in which Euroskeptic parties stand to do well.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Jun 25th 2021
Video: The US Housing Sector Rolls Over
The US housing market has been booming for the past year, with prices setting a record-high in data released this week. However, a decline in affordability, coupled with the potential for higher mortgage rates, is weighing on demand and has started to force a shift from a buyer-led market to a renter-led market.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Jun 18th 2021
Video: The New Normal For Antitrust
Earlier this week, outspoken “Big Tech” critic Lina Khan was named chair of the Federal Trade Commission after a bipartisan vote. In this interview, Yanmei assesses to what degree this signals a harder line on antitrust issues by the Biden administration, and whether the US’s big tech firms have reason to be worried.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Yanmei Xie
Jun 18th 2021
Webinar: The Market Impact Of US Policymakers
In yesterday’s webinar, our team of US analysts considered what the Federal Reserve's tentative moves to normalize monetary policy means for growth and asset values. They also offered updates on US fiscal policy and anti-trust developments.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui, Tom Miller
Jun 11th 2021
Webinar: The Risk To Emerging Markets
In yesterday's webinar, Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui and Tom Miller weighed up the risks of capital flight from emerging markets as the Federal Reserve again starts talk of tapering. They focused on the different outlook for Asian exporting powerhouses and commodity producers, and discussed India, which is emerging from a severe second wave of Covid-19.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Jun 09th 2021
Video: Weighing The Fed’s Unconventional Options
The Federal Reserve’s next move is likely to be verbal guidance over a tapering of asset purchases, argues Will. That is increasingly a consensus market position, so in this interview he explores other policy options that the Fed could choose to pursue.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
Jun 04th 2021
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, June 2021
The big question is still about how durable the current burst of inflation will prove to be. Anatole and Louis joined Arthur to debate this—and everything else going on in the world economy—at our monthly global investment roundtable.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
Jun 04th 2021
Video: Fixing China’s Population Crunch
China’s latest census revealed a low fertility rate, pointing to the population soon topping out. In response, the government has said that couples can now have up to three children but, as things stand, there is no reason to think that they will. In this video interview, Gilliam assesses the various policy levers that the authorities can pull to stop the Chinese nation getting smaller.
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Gavekal Research
Rosealea Yao, Louis Gave
May 28th 2021
Webinar: The Commodity Spiral
Global commodity prices have been on a tear in recent weeks due to strong global growth prospects and constricted supply. The macro picture, however, is murky, with China simultaneously being the driver of soaring iron ore prices while moving to tighten controls over property and infrastructure spending. Rosealea and Louis explained the overall outlook for metals and energy.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
May 25th 2021
Video: Buy The Crypto Dip?
Crypto-currency prices have plunged in the last two weeks on a bad brew of news. Will wants to believe in crypto-currencies as an alternative form of money. However, he has struggled to see how such tokens make the jump to being “money”, with all that entails. The question is whether after such a big price drawdown, this skepticism is now discounted into the price.
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