Gavekal Research

Andrew Batson

Oct 15th 2021

China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. This has resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no overt U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely, but addressed possible regulatory softening moves.

Gavekal Research

Thomas Gatley, Tom Miller, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky

Oct 08th 2021

In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber, Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave

Oct 08th 2021

In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Sep 28th 2021

A material difference has opened up in both the actions and signaling of global central banks, as they exit from pandemic-era monetary policy settings. On the hawkish side is the likes of the Federal Reserve and on the dovish side the European Central Bank and a raft of Asian policymakers. The question is who could be on the verge of making a policy mistake.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Andrew Batson, Wei He, Ernan Cui

Sep 23rd 2021

Markets have reacted violently to China Evergrande Group starting to default on US$300bn of obligations. The worry is that a disorderly failure causes a systemic crisis that dents Chinese growth and upends other emerging markets. Our team of analysts think such a chaotic denouement is unlikely and a managed solution remains the most likely outcome. In this webinar, they explain their thinking.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Yanmei Xie

Sep 17th 2021

As renewed Covid outbreaks curtail activity and the labor market starts to normalize, the US economy is no longer generating big upside growth surprises. Will the Federal Reserve defer its retreat from super-easy monetary policy, and what will come of the Biden administration's fiscal strategy?

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews

Sep 10th 2021

Ahead of Germany’s election in a couple of weeks, the center-left Social Democratic Party has recently climbed up the polls to eclipse the previously dominant Christian Democratic Union. If the polling is right, the SPD is likely to form a coalition government with Germany’s smaller parties. Nick breaks out the tea leaves to see what a political shift is likely to mean.

Gavekal Research

Yanmei Xie

Sep 03rd 2021

In the same week that the US military completed its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden outlined a more contained doctrine for US foreign policy. In this video interview, Yanmei argues against a declinist view of the Kabul dash for the exit, contending that the longer-term impact may be a much-needed reset of the American imperial project.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber

Aug 06th 2021

The US growth outlook may be softening as the reopening boom weakens but equity markets seem relaxed as this outcome could delay the day when monetary stimulus is withdrawn. In our sign-off webinar for August, Gavekal partners asked if markets are right in their benign assessment, or whether a nasty surprise could emerge over the usually quiet summer months.