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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Sep 20th 2019
Video: What Next In The Tech War
Washington views China as a strategic competitor, and the White House has promised a “whole of government” effort to constrain China’s development of key advanced technologies. Dan examines the three ways in which the US is making life difficult for Chinese tech companies, and explores other weapons the US could deploy should the tech war escalate.
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Gavekal Research
Tom Holland
Sep 13th 2019
Video: Washington, Iran And The Price Of Oil
This week’s sacking of John Bolton as White House national security advisor triggered a fall in the price of oil as traders concluded the notorious war hawk’s departure paved the way for a relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That may be unlikely; US officials insist their policy of “maximum” pressure on Iran remains in force.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Sep 06th 2019
Video: Italian Politics Favors Bonds
Yesterday Italy’s new government took office, the 66th since 1946. Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have reached record lows. Nick attributes this to two factors. First the global bond rally. Second, the shifting winds of Italian politics away from the Euroskeptics to the Europhiles, which bodes well for Italian-European budget negotiations.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Louis Gave
Sep 05th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2019
In yesterday’s conference call, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave outlined reasons for recent dramatic moves in bond markets and made arguments for what comes next. Anatole also addressed Brexit developments and Louis discussed the situation in Hong Kong.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Aug 30th 2019
Video: Looking Through The Bond Bubble
As yields fall to record lows, bond markets seem priced for some sort of global economic calamity. With Europe in dire straits and the US-China trade war remaining live, there is certainly cause for worry. But when things look like they can’t get any worse, Will reckons, they often don’t. As the US growth outlook appears steady, equities and cash are the better bet.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 23rd 2019
Video: The Anatomy Of The August Panic
As more and more government bonds around the world slide into negative yield, investors can draw one of two conclusions: either the world faces an economic meltdown, or there is a buying panic in safe assets. But although there is indeed a synchronous global slowdown in growth, Louis favors the latter explanation.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Aug 01st 2019
Video: Enter Boris
In the last week or so, the pound has fallen sharply to a two-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar. That’s all down to the new British government, headed by Boris Johnson, and his "do or die" Brexit campaign. But when a deal is finally struck, Britain’s strong economic fundamentals mean it is well placed for a boost in growth, along with the pound.
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Gavekal Research
Vincent Tsui
Jul 19th 2019
Video: Korea's Coping Strategy
No other G20 economy is as exposed to global trade tensions as Korea. With its heavy dependence on semiconductor manufacturing, Korea has proved vulnerable both to the US-China economic cold war, and to long-running disputes between Seoul and Tokyo. As a result, exports have cratered and economists have slashed their Korean growth forecasts.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Jul 12th 2019
Video: Modi's Second Term Challenges
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi faces some daunting economic challenges in his second term. As Udith explains in this interview, the biggest is to create new jobs India needs. In the coming decades, India must generate some 10mn new jobs every year simply to provide employment for the cohort of young Indians set to enter the workforce.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber
Jul 12th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2019
In yesterday’s Gavekal Research conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber conducted a mid-year review of the investment environment and outlined their expectations for the rest of the year onward.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Jul 05th 2019
Video: What Is Libra, And Will It Work?
Facebook will have an uphill battle trying to convince consumers to adopt its announced digital currency, libra. As it will be backed by a basket of assets denominated in different currencies, the prices of goods and services will be more volatile in libra than in existing local currencies, even in emerging markets. This volatility will deter consumers from making the switch.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Thomas Gatley
Jun 28th 2019
Video: What Drives Chinese Equities
Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jun 21st 2019
Video: China's Three Vulnerabilities
Even if Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping leave the G-20 meeting in Osaka next week with a trade deal in hand, the broader rivalry will continue. In this extensive video interview Louis identifies three ways in which China is vulnerable to US pressure and explains how this may impact investors.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Jun 13th 2019
Video: Bull Markets Don't Die Of Old Age
The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish...
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Jun 05th 2019
Video: Italy And Europe's Banking Problem
The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Dan Wang, Matthew Forney
May 29th 2019
Audio & Transcript — The US-China Trade And Technology Mess
In yesterday's special Gavekal Research Conference call Gavekal's Arthur Kroeber and Dan Wang, along with Fathom China's Matt Forney, considered what the breakdown of the US-China trade talks means for the trajectory of the trade war, and what the blacklisting of Huawei means for the tech cold war.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl
May 28th 2019
Video: European Election Fallout
The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.
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Gavekal Research
Tom Holland
May 24th 2019
Video: Iran And The Oil Price
Angry rhetoric between the US and Iran reached blood-curdling intensity after the US announced in late April that it wouldn't grant waivers for sanctions on Iran's oil exports. While this caused a short term spike in the oil price, it has since fallen about -8% from its high. Are oil traders too complacent about the risks, or does the market have it right?
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
May 24th 2019
Trade War: Back From The Dead
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Chen Long
May 17th 2019
Video: How Much Downside For The Renminbi?
Since the US slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese exports a week ago, the renminbi has fallen, but by less than when the first round of tariffs were imposed last year. In this video interview, Chen Long discusses why that is, and how far China’s currency is likely to fall if things get worse.
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