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E.g., 22-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    No Escape From The Evergrande Effect

    Fears about the potential systemic risks posed by troubled property developer Evergrande reverberated through global financial markets on Monday. Unless China’s regulators seriously mismanage the situation, a systemic crisis in the country’s financial sector is not on the cards. Nevertheless, lenders will not be able to escape the costs.

    1
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    Out Of The Congressional Quagmire

    Eight months after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the US president’s economic agenda remains bogged down, with two flagship spending bills stuck in Congress amid infighting among Biden’s fellow Democrats. In the coming weeks, however, there is a good chance of a compromise that will see one of the two cleared through the House of Representatives.

    0
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    Squeaky Bum Time For The US Economy

    As Covid cases rise in the US, most indicators point to a slowing economy. After August’s payrolls came in weak, activity measures and nowcasting readings have softened, while conditions in leading sectors like housing and autos have worsened. With the Citi US economic surprise index having fallen to -44.6 from close to zero a month ago, forecasters have been caught off guard by the slowdown. As Sir Alex Ferguson, the former Manchester United...

    0
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    Europe’s Energy Headwinds

    The United Kingdom got a sharp lesson in the perils of energy dependence on Wednesday. A fire shut down its imports of electricity—mostly nuclear-generated—from France, pushing domestic natural gas prices up by as much as 20% in intraday trading. The fire may keep as much as a third of the UK’s capacity to import power from France closed through the winter months. Given that the UK has the capacity to import 3MW from France and on average...

    2
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    ‘Transitory’ Inflation And Government Intervention

    Tuesday’s US CPI release shed little light on the “transitory versus persistent” inflation debate. Airfares and hotel rates weakened on the delta outbreak. And surprisingly, rents remained muted, while used car prices rolled over even as new car prices surged. Still, US CPI gained 5.3% YoY, while core CPI rose 4% YoY. By the standards of recent decades, these are big numbers.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    A Mile In MbS’s Shoes

    Steve Martin once said “before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, when you do criticize him, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes”. In this piece Louis takes a stroll in Mohammed bin Salman’s shoes to see what issues Saudi Arabia has faced recently, and outlines four scenarios that affect energy prices and geopolitics.

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    Internet Platforms Versus Policy Darlings

    China’s offshore internet platform stocks saw fresh falls in Asia on Monday morning after reports that the Chinese authorities will break up Ant Group’s Alipay business. In recent weeks, some investors have been advocating a rotation to “safer” segments of China’s tech sector, such as hardware companies favored by policymakers. But Thomas writes, these carry risks of their own.

    0
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    A British Fix To Housing

    For decades, urban England has had an under-supplied and over-bought housing market. UK governments of all political stripes have tried and failed to unblock building pipelines. Britain is hardly alone in having seen home prices rocket due to pandemic effects, but there was a grim inevitability to UK home prices rising 13% in the last year. Yet, at the same juncture, there is evidence that a mixture of decent policymaking and smart market...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Economy And Volatility

    US equities have gone almost 18 months without a double-digit drawdown. Such calm is likely to trouble devotees of Hyman Minsky, who showed that excessively long periods of market stability breeds countervailing episodes of violent instability. The question is what will cause the transition to a more volatile market, or dare I say it, what could trigger a “Minsky moment”?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Split In Emerging Markets

    Animals can apparently sense impending storms and so take evasive action. Low-flying birds, sneezing cats, croaking frogs, huddled sheep and sedentary cows are all said to indicate the onset of heavy rain. In global finance, emerging markets are most exposed to sudden climatic shifts and have learned the hard way that it is unwise to be exposed when a tempest strikes. The issue today is the Federal Reserve’s well-telegraphed intention to dial...

    4
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    Bottlenecks And Corporate Bond Yields

    It seems that not all parts of the US economy are created equal. As the Delta variant outbreak causes US Covid cases to soar, the service sector is taking a hit. In contrast, the less-exposed manufacturing sector saw job growth in August. The question for investors is how these somewhat conflicting forces impact different asset classes.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Taper Decision

    To taper, or not to taper is the question for the European Central Bank at Thursday’s policymaking meeting. The market seems to think that monthly bond purchases will soon be lowered by about €20bn to €80bn, as shown by 10-year German bund yields rising 14bp in the last two weeks. Economic output in the eurozone is back near pre-pandemic levels and consumer price inflation in August spiked to 3%. There have even been putative sightings of the...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Most Worrying Shortage

    The world’s most traded commodity, semiconductors, is running scarce, the price of the second-most important commodity, oil, is grinding higher, and the cost of moving things around the world is soaring. All this would be worrying enough, but ask any businessperson in North America or Europe about their biggest constraint, and the answer is likely to be staffing.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    The Problem Lurking In Malaysia

    Until a few weeks ago, Malaysia had not had a proper prime minister since the eve of the pandemic. The new incumbent emerged out of a messy negotiation and oversees a weak coalition that could easily fracture. For investors, the worry is a steady deterioration of Malaysia’s fiscal fundamentals in a trend that is being seen across non-China emerging Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Coming Slowdown In Europe’s New Orders

    European equities have had a stunning 10 months, returning 46% since the beginning of November 2020 and outperforming even the MSCI US. This performance has been driven by expectations of strong earnings growth— supported by buoyant demand and full order books. Peering ahead, however, there are good reasons to look for the pace of new orders to slow.

    0
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    The Long Shadow Of Canada’s Election

    Canada’s federal elections rarely make headlines. This may be because whoever wins, the outcome is usually much the same. However, Canada’s September 20 election may cast a shadow that falls beyond the country’s borders. This is because, to a large extent, the election will be a referendum on Covid policies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Investing Through The Taper

    After all the build-up hype, investors seem to have taken Jerome Powell saying that the Federal Reserve may soon be buying less assets in their stride. They have no doubt taken solace from the Fed chair’s promise that tapering does not mean imminent interest rate hikes, or quantitative tightening. So is the great 2021 “taper whimper” done and dusted? Perhaps not, for while the Fed’s expectation management has been slick, in the months ahead...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    The Evolution Of China Risk

    It has been a busy summer for China watchers, with rapid shifts in underlying risks. With that in mind, a quick recap of recent events, and where those leave investors, might make sense. Let me start with the obvious increased risks:

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Never-Ending Chip Shortage

    Nine months after the world’s carmakers began to complain about difficulties sourcing the silicon chips they need to make their automobiles, it is becoming clear these shortages are not just the result of short-lived disruptions. Sure, the pandemic has played havoc with global hardware supply chains. But Covid is worsening underlying shortcomings baked into the semiconductor manufacturing industry. This means there will be no early end to the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    How Equities Cured The Summertime Blues

    Now that equity prices have resumed their habit of setting almost daily new records, and true believers in the “buy on dips” mantra have been amply rewarded yet again, it seems worth recalling the causes of the stock market’s mini-panic in mid-July. To be more precise this was a micro-panic, lasting just five days, from July 14 to 19. What happened in those five days to rattle investors?

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