E.g., 19-01-2022
E.g., 19-01-2022
We have found 4550 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Absence Of Asian Consumer Inflation

    At a time when headline inflation is running at 30-year highs in both the US and the eurozone, Asia stands out for its absence of abnormal consumer inflation. Now admittedly, emerging Asia is not uniform, yet it is fair to say that across the segment as a whole, consumer inflation is the dog that has failed to bark.This is not necessarily the benign picture it may appear.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Cautious Easing

    China’s recent cut to its reserve-requirement ratio is another signal that policymakers are becoming more willing to ease policy to counter the sharp slowdown in growth. But will it be enough? Wei argues that, while positive for equities, the modest easing set to occur in 2022 will at best stabilize growth rather than drive a cyclical rebound.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What If Inflation Had Not Appeared?

    If inflation had stayed roughly at the level of the previous decade, one would have expected long-term bond yields to stay contained, large-cap US growth stocks to outperform and the US dollar to remain well bid. Yet, all this came to pass even as inflation soared to generational highs. So Louis asks: what would have happened if inflation hadn't soared?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ripple Effects On The Supply Chain

    A year after a handful of auto manufacturers first began to complain about difficulties sourcing integrated circuits from component suppliers, the global semiconductor shortage has broadened to affect the sales outlook of high-end industry segments—such as premium smartphones—that until recently have remained largely immune. This is causing ripple effects far back along Asia’s hardware supply chains, which is bad news for the region’s export...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Importance Of What Didn’t Occur

    Amid all the turmoil of the last week or so, the most significant market move may be one that didn’t happen. When news of omicron hit the wires markets saw sharp moves. Usually in times of uncertainty, the US dollar rises on a safe-haven bid. Last Friday that didn’t happen; the US dollar fell against most major currencies.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trading Omicron

    Fear is stalking markets on concerns that the global economy could be hit by an Omicron Covid outbreak and the world’s central bank will not ride to the rescue. Comments by Jay Powell yesterday on a faster-than-planned taper to the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases added to the bad brew for risk assets. This sell-off reminds that despite recent calm conditions, highly-valued US equities are prone to sudden volatility. There are reasons to think...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Phantom Menace

    Prices are rising around the world, but how do we know that all orders are real? If firms have responded to global supply congestion and long delivery times by ordering more than they need to meet demand, it is likely that some will end up not taking delivery of what is apparently due them.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Economics Of Covid Divergence

    Even before omicron showed up, European governments had reacted to high Covid case loads with demand-sapping limits on travel and social activity. In the US, by contrast, most Covid restrictions continue to be focused on what can be generalized as the economy’s supply side. The betting must be that this divergence of approaches remains—and is even reinforced by omicron.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Risk Appetite Returns

    Whenever a currency crisis engulfs an emerging economy, investors nervously look around for the next shoe to drop. After the meltdown this week in the Turkish lira—down -20% in November; -40% year-to-date—precedents from the Asian crisis of 1997-98 to the 2013 taper tantrum suggest contagion might be about to spread to infect the rest of the emerging currency complex. However, despite the broad strength of the US dollar and steep falls in a...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Houston, We Have A Problem

    Charles looks at global bond and equity markets, concluding that the combined effect of central bank policies and private sector indexation is creating a massive corner in the US dollar and US equities.The last time something similar happened was in late 1989, when Japanese equities made up more than half of MSCI World.

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Impotent Signaling

    Media pundits were quick to dismiss Joe Biden’s release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a failure Tuesday, on the grounds that the price of crude oil promptly rose by 4%. They were harsh. Despite Tuesday’s rise, the price of WTI has actually fallen by around -7% over the last four weeks as the market priced in the prospect of an SPR draw.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden's Fed Picks

    President Joe Biden took the path of least resistance in nominating Jay Powell to serve a second term as Federal Reserve chair. It reinforces my view that macro policy will be driven more by changes in the economic data than changes in Fed leadership. At the sectoral level, these appointments should be positive for US bank stocks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Tantrum, What Tantrum?

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, emerging market assets have come under selling pressure, much as they did in 2013. Yet, it would be wrong to see this as a “taper tantrum”. What cannot be disputed is that global bond markets have, in recent months, thrown a strop.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Italian Renaissance?

    Visiting Gavekal clients in Italy this week for the first time in 18 months, I have been struck by the mood of sunny optimism that pervades the country’s financial community. Arriving there myself with a relatively upbeat view on Italy’s economic prospects, I was expecting at least a partial reality check from clients. But pushbacks were rare and half-hearted. Instead, stories of thriving new start-ups and returning Italian expatriates abounded...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Piling On The Misery

    Faced with a fourth wave of coronavirus infections, and in some places even a fifth, European Union governments are again tightening their public health restrictions. Clearly this cannot be good news for Europe’s near-term economic outlook. But how bad is it likely to be? A Covid misery index may provide a useful guide.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of Bond Market Moves

    The last month has seen a number of major shifts occur in the US treasury market which may well be leaving investors scratching their heads over how to interpret them, especially as some appear at first to be conflicting. On examination, however, the market is sending four clear messages. They are consistent with each other. But that does not mean they are all right.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Panic, But Do Be Wary

    On Monday, Anatole argued that Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic. His case is that favorable base effects and more moderate demand growth now that the initial reopening boom is over mean headline inflation rates will moderate significantly next year. As a result, the current elevated inflation rates will prove largely transient, rendering an aggressive monetary policy response unnecessary. This benign scenario is possible, but I...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic

    Considering last week’s headlines about US inflation exploding to 6.2%, a level not seen since 1990, many investors and most economists seem baffled, or even angry, about how equities keep hitting new highs while bond yields remain remarkably stable in a narrow trading range of 1.25% to 1.75%. In my view, the most surprising thing about these market conditions is that they are described as surprising. Sky-high equity prices and rock-bottom...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Payback Time In Asia

    Other than in China, policymakers in Asia made two big macro bets during the pandemic. Asian governments spent big and central banks have stayed easy for longer than counterparts in other emerging markets. Alas, their bets on inflation proving transitory are coming unstuck and the actions they now take will influence returns in the region for years to come.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Inflation’s Medium-Term Cure

    After consumer price inflation in October topped forecasts, it is clear that the US economy is running hot. And as workers embrace the “great resignation” rather than seek fresh work, the US labor market is tight. Still, my inflationary glass has tended to be half-full on the basis that improved US capital spending should ultimately help fix the economy’s supply side.

    0
Show me: results