E.g., 30-11-2021
E.g., 30-11-2021
We have found 4523 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Economics Of Covid Divergence

    Even before omicron showed up, European governments had reacted to high Covid case loads with demand-sapping limits on travel and social activity. In the US, by contrast, most Covid restrictions continue to be focused on what can be generalized as the economy’s supply side. The betting must be that this divergence of approaches remains—and is even reinforced by omicron.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Risk Appetite Returns

    Whenever a currency crisis engulfs an emerging economy, investors nervously look around for the next shoe to drop. After the meltdown this week in the Turkish lira—down -20% in November; -40% year-to-date—precedents from the Asian crisis of 1997-98 to the 2013 taper tantrum suggest contagion might be about to spread to infect the rest of the emerging currency complex. However, despite the broad strength of the US dollar and steep falls in a...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Houston, We Have A Problem

    Charles looks at global bond and equity markets, concluding that the combined effect of central bank policies and private sector indexation is creating a massive corner in the US dollar and US equities.The last time something similar happened was in late 1989, when Japanese equities made up more than half of MSCI World.

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Impotent Signaling

    Media pundits were quick to dismiss Joe Biden’s release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a failure Tuesday, on the grounds that the price of crude oil promptly rose by 4%. They were harsh. Despite Tuesday’s rise, the price of WTI has actually fallen by around -7% over the last four weeks as the market priced in the prospect of an SPR draw.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden's Fed Picks

    President Joe Biden took the path of least resistance in nominating Jay Powell to serve a second term as Federal Reserve chair. It reinforces my view that macro policy will be driven more by changes in the economic data than changes in Fed leadership. At the sectoral level, these appointments should be positive for US bank stocks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Tantrum, What Tantrum?

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, emerging market assets have come under selling pressure, much as they did in 2013. Yet, it would be wrong to see this as a “taper tantrum”. What cannot be disputed is that global bond markets have, in recent months, thrown a strop.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Italian Renaissance?

    Visiting Gavekal clients in Italy this week for the first time in 18 months, I have been struck by the mood of sunny optimism that pervades the country’s financial community. Arriving there myself with a relatively upbeat view on Italy’s economic prospects, I was expecting at least a partial reality check from clients. But pushbacks were rare and half-hearted. Instead, stories of thriving new start-ups and returning Italian expatriates abounded...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Piling On The Misery

    Faced with a fourth wave of coronavirus infections, and in some places even a fifth, European Union governments are again tightening their public health restrictions. Clearly this cannot be good news for Europe’s near-term economic outlook. But how bad is it likely to be? A Covid misery index may provide a useful guide.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of Bond Market Moves

    The last month has seen a number of major shifts occur in the US treasury market which may well be leaving investors scratching their heads over how to interpret them, especially as some appear at first to be conflicting. On examination, however, the market is sending four clear messages. They are consistent with each other. But that does not mean they are all right.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Panic, But Do Be Wary

    On Monday, Anatole argued that Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic. His case is that favorable base effects and more moderate demand growth now that the initial reopening boom is over mean headline inflation rates will moderate significantly next year. As a result, the current elevated inflation rates will prove largely transient, rendering an aggressive monetary policy response unnecessary. This benign scenario is possible, but I...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic

    Considering last week’s headlines about US inflation exploding to 6.2%, a level not seen since 1990, many investors and most economists seem baffled, or even angry, about how equities keep hitting new highs while bond yields remain remarkably stable in a narrow trading range of 1.25% to 1.75%. In my view, the most surprising thing about these market conditions is that they are described as surprising. Sky-high equity prices and rock-bottom...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Payback Time In Asia

    Other than in China, policymakers in Asia made two big macro bets during the pandemic. Asian governments spent big and central banks have stayed easy for longer than counterparts in other emerging markets. Alas, their bets on inflation proving transitory are coming unstuck and the actions they now take will influence returns in the region for years to come.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Inflation’s Medium-Term Cure

    After consumer price inflation in October topped forecasts, it is clear that the US economy is running hot. And as workers embrace the “great resignation” rather than seek fresh work, the US labor market is tight. Still, my inflationary glass has tended to be half-full on the basis that improved US capital spending should ultimately help fix the economy’s supply side.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Transitory Inflation’s Unanswered Questions

    As a child, I was lucky enough to attend a Jesuit school. I once asked a teacher: “Father, is it true that Jesuits always answer a question with another question?”. The priest looked me up and down and answered: “Who told you that?”. In this spirit, I will try to answer today’s biggest market question—whether inflation proves transitory, or not—with more questions.

    13
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Fed Chair Question And The Euro

    The resignation Monday of US Federal Reserve governor Randy Quarles has highlighted the question marks hanging over his boss, Fed chair Jay Powell. With each week that goes by, the failure of Joe Biden to renominate Powell shortens the odds that the Fed chair will not see a second term. This may help to explain the recent rallies in bonds and equities. If Powell is to be replaced, his successor is likely to be even more dovish. Given the White...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hedging A Tighter US Economy

    After October’s payroll report came in strong on Friday, the S&P 500 hit a new high. On Saturday, the House Of Representatives was corralled into passing the Biden administration’s delayed infrastructure bill and there is a good chance of the “reconciliation bill” becoming law. Given such boosts to demand, US equity investors could be forgiven for expecting smooth sailing ahead. But KX warns of higher volatility.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Fortress Europe (Again)

    One of Europe’s enduring mysteries is why the continent’s left-of-center political parties, many of them steeped in Marxist theory, became such eager exponents of European integration. Integration, after all, promised to expose the domestic workers whose interests the left claimed to represent to cut-throat cross-border competition.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Unstable Equilibrium

    In the past few weeks, the central banks of developed commodity producers including Canada, Australia and New Zealand have given up on the idea that monetary policy will stay easy forever. But the world’s major central banks do not seem to share their concern. This makes for an unstable equilibrium.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Chronic Congestion

    The US is facing the prospect of a gloomy Black Friday this year. Consumer demand for products is strong. But with scores of container ships backed up outside the main US ports, supply chain bottlenecks are slowing the pace at which stuff can be distributed. This isn’t just a problem affecting imported consumer goods. It is also leading to shortages of key components, which are weighing on the output of US manufacturers. Either way, the results...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Beware The Bear Flattening

    On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia became the latest major central bank to signal a change of course, shifting away from its ultra-accommodative policy stance and towards a marginal tightening in response to higher inflation pressures. In executing its shift, the RBA confirmed what the bond market had already concluded: last month, yields at the short end of the Australian dollar curve spiked higher in anticipation of interest rate...

    0
Show me: results