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E.g., 19-01-2022
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Solving The Power Crisis

    To solve China’s power shortages, planners are both liberalizing electricity prices and browbeating mines to produce more coal. In this report, Rosealea explains that while getting through the crisis will require a rebound in coal-fired power, energy price liberalization should support China’s environmental goals in the long run.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Troubling Signal In US Savings

    In recent months, the US net national savings rate—the share of income unconsumed—has ticked lower. It may seem a small concern as the Federal Reserve prepares to taper, but if the rate of genuine savings continues to fall over coming quarters, it will be a danger signal both for asset markets and for US economic growth.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Building The Bubble-O-Meter

    Charles is somewhat tired of reading general descriptions of US equities being in a bubble, with little serious empirical backing to support the assertion. In this piece, he sets out to build an objective tool to answer the bubble, or not, question. Spoiler alert: he thinks investors would do well to re-assess their hedges.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Winter For Small Business

    China’s small businesses are having a rough 2021: business conditions have stagnated or deteriorated since the recovery in late 2020. There’s been much debate on the causes of their struggles, but the biggest culprits are the ripple effects from the government’s zero-tolerance Covid policy and its tightening of credit and real-estate policies.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Sun King

    As the US and Europe pursue more serious green agendas, they are wondering if they can wrest back production of solar power from China. The answer: probably not. China is not just the low-cost producer, but also the technological leader. In this piece, Dan explains why the global deployment of solar energy will depend heavily on China.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    What, Me Worry?

    There is a growing drumbeat of commentary arguing that today’s shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas must end in an inflationary blowout and a return to the lascivious 1970s. Anatole thinks that today’s shortages are likely to correct relatively quickly, and for investors the coming period is more likely to resemble the 1950s.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Fixing Italy

    The results of this weekend's municipal elections in Italy look to have buttressed Mario Draghi’s national unity government, which is half way through an ambitious overhaul of core institutions that have failed the country for decades. With 70% of Italians favoring Draghi’s initiative, and no general election due until mid-2023, the betting is that he gets to finish the job.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Q&A: China’s Investibility

    In the last few weeks, as China Evergrande’s financial troubles have deepened, Louis and Gavekal’s China team have fielded a spate of questions from clients about China’s investibility. In this paper, Louis offers a distillation of these conversations, presented in a question-and-answer format.

    16
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Developers Need Loans

    How much financial stress can China’s developers take? Thanks to strict financial regulation and slowing sales, every channel of financing for developers is now tightening simultaneously. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how this puts pressure on policymakers to ease those financing restrictions, and why bank lending is the most likely beneficiary.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    After The German Election

    The results of this Sunday’s German federal election are unlikely to generate any shocks when markets reopen on Monday. Nonetheless, the precise colors of the coalition that eventually emerges will matter a great deal to investors. Cedric reviews the possible coalition compositions and outlines what they will mean for fiscal policy, European integration and China.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Don’t Call It A Tech Crackdown

    China’s regulatory onslaught against companies like Ant Group, Didi Chuxing and Tencent has been widely referred to as a “tech crackdown.” In this piece, Dan argues that the government’s actions are less a sign that it has turned against tech than they are a rejection of the idea that the consumer internet is the peak of technological achievement.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    The Anglosphere Doubles Down

    The “Aukus” security partnership sparked a diplomatic explosion when it was unveiled by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States last week. As the smoke clears, America’s strategy to counter China is becoming clear. But the diplomatic fallout from Aukus also reflects a new reality. How does Europe fit into this brave new world, and how will China respond?

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Reversal In Iron Ore

    Over the past two months, iron ore prices have tumbled as China’s property market slows and local authorities expand restrictions on steel output. In this report, Rosealea explains why falling steel demand should cause prices to continue their decline, eventually settling at around levels of US$70-80/ton.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Investing In Today’s Inflationary Environment

    Investing in a topsy-turvy macro environment can feel like a crapshoot. One way to seek order among chaos is to draw lessons from economic history. Louis examines the underlying causes of financial crises since the late 1990s and applies the lessons to consider the way in which the global economy and markets emerge from the pandemic.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Going Electric In The Land Of The F-150

    The US government and the auto industry are now pulling in the same direction of decarbonizing transportation. In this piece, Yanmei asks if the emerging government-industry alliance can accelerate vehicle electrification, where the US has fallen behind Europe and China, and whether they can catch up to Tesla and foreign competitors.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Profits From Payments

    Online payments were one of the first and most prominent victims of China’s regulatory onslaught against internet platforms. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how a combination of both tighter oversight and the pending launch of the digital renminbi is limiting platforms’ ability to monetize their payments businesses.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Winners And Losers In India’s Dying Democracy

    As India’s economy has weakened, so too have its democratic foundations. Since Narendra Modi’s reelection victory in 2019, “the world’s largest democracy” has flirted with despotism. State institutions have been co-opted, freedoms repressed and minorities attacked. But a handful of listed companies—especially those run by tycoons with personal ties to Modi—are thriving.

    15
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    Gavekal Research

    The High Cost Of Free Money, Revisited

    It’s now more than 10 years since Charles published a seminal paper titled The High Cost Of Free Money, in which he argued that free-market capitalism could not function properly without a free-market-determined cost of capital. Today it’s clear that capital markets, at least, can continue to operate, but Charles argues this has created very little new wealth.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Covid, Markets And What Happens Next

    Over the last 18 months, Covid developments have been a key driver of financial market performance. Louis contends that this period can be split into four distinct phases. In this piece, he asks whether we are now entering a fifth phase. To do this he weighs up both encouraging and concerning developments within the pandemic and economic policy choices that flow from them.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Kind Of Easing Cycle?

    It’s been clear for a couple of months now that China has begun a monetary easing cycle. What has been less clear is what kind of easing cycle will happen under the central bank’s new “cross-cyclical” policy framework. The PBOC’s guidance indicates it could start cutting rates this year, but will try to keep credit growth next year roughly flat.

    5
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