E.g., 01-12-2021
E.g., 01-12-2021
We have found 3250 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Becomes A Fiscal Burden

    With a downturn in property intensifying China’s economic slowdown, hopes are rising that a pickup in infrastructure investment will help stabilize growth in 2022. But as Wei argues in this piece, the property downturn is becoming a major drag on local-government finances, which will limit their ability to boost public works spending.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The New, Yet Forgotten, Inflation Force

    The global economy and global energy markets were transformed by China’s dramatic expansion of the last 20 years. Most of that growth was fueled by coal, which now finds itself in policymakers’ crosshairs—even in China. Louis assesses the world’s energy mix and asks what the macroeconomic implications will be of a pronounced move away from the dirty fuel.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Wave Of Bank Stress

    The downturn in China’s property sector will be a strain on smaller banks, which are less well-capitalized and often more exposed to the real-estate sector than their larger counterparts. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains why regulators are likely to take a hands-off approach to the problem, tolerating bank closures and encouraging bank mergers.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Teaching An Old Dog New Tricks

    The US dollar has long been a poor reserve of value. For decades, German bunds did the job. But negative yields mean they no longer fit the bill. That leaves the US equity market as the world’s chosen reserve of value—with far-reaching implications that Charles explores in this landmark paper.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India’s Economy Retreats With Modi

    Last week saw India's prime minister Narendra Modi stun political friend and foe alike with a decision to repeal the laws that underpinned his flagship reform of India’s sclerotic agricultural sector. Udith argues that the likely losers from Modi’s U-turn will be the poor, as India’s structural growth prospects have just taken a big knock.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Stimulus Won't Be Green

    As the sharp downturn in China’s property sector continues to deepen, hopes for the stabilization of economic growth are turning to the prospect of a “green stimulus” via two new lending tools. In this report, Wei explains why the impact of these tools is likely to be negligible, as they are no substitute for an actual relaxation of macro policy.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dual Strategy For Semiconductors

    China’s drive for semiconductor sovereignty is entering a new phase, with government and industry converging on a dual strategy to reduce vulnerability to US sanctions. First, create a domestic supply chain for mature chip technology; second, invest in new technologies that could offer a different path to competing with leading-edge products.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Charging The Future

    The world needs more batteries, both to power electric vehicles and store electricity for green power grids. China is in a prime position to meet that demand as it already commands a large majority of both current and planned production capacity. It is therefore probable that Chinese firms will be commanding leading positions in a decade’s time.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Real Yield Mystery

    One of Will’s key calls for 2021 was that real yields on US treasuries would rebound from their deeply negative levels. But despite the news of Fed tapering, real yields have remained stubbornly low. Here, Will examines a number of factors that may be offsetting the expected effect of tapering and concludes investors should be wary a rise in real yields on treasuries.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    South Korea’s First-Mover Problem

    South Korea's central bank was the first in Asia to raise interest rates this cycle. Yet despite its apparent prudence, the market has focused on Korea’s worsening growth outlook and the BoK’s apparent limited scope to ease monetary policy. Vincent assesses the outlook for one of Asia’s powerhouse economies.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Inflation Is Still Not A Problem

    China reported a record surge in its producer price index, prompting fears that the country is both a victim of the same supply-chain shocks facing the US and an exporter of further inflationary pressures. Thomas explains that while these concerns are unfounded, domestic growth momentum is the real problem.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Return Of The Kitsune

    In Japanese folklore, a kitsune is a magical, very wily, nine-tailed fox who wriggles out of tricky situations. It resembles our financial markets, which have a doughty ability to manage “tail risks”. Last year, Louis wrote a series of articles looking at such risks and today returns to that theme in a substantially changed investment context.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Contrarian View On Brazil

    An inverted yield curve usually points to trouble ahead, and Brazil’s just flipped for the first time in five years. Add to that a botched Covid response, blowout fiscal deficits and political risk, and the next year may be one of living dangerously in Brazil. But given attractive valuations, Udith says there are good reasons for investors to take that risk.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Mortgage Easing Begins

    China’s outstanding mortgage loans grew in October, confirming anecdotal reports that banks have been allowed or encouraged to pick up the pace of mortgage lending. Wei and Xiaoxi explain that while more relaxation measures are likely on the way for property developers, it’s too early to say that their financial conditions are improving.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Politics And Policy In Common Prosperity

    It’s now been a year since top leader Xi Jinping first laid out his new goal of achieving “common prosperity,” but how exactly that new slogan translates into government policy still remains rather unclear. As Andrew explains in this piece, that’s because common prosperity is ultimately more of a political campaign than a coherent policy agenda.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Conservative But Costly Plan

    A major concern of negotiators and activists at this month’s global climate meetings is the size and credibility of China’s decarbonization commitment. However, as Arthur and Rosealea explain there are good reasons to believe that climate goals will play a large role in China’s policy mix in the coming decade—with large risks to economic growth.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Case Against Easing

    Even though growth has been very disappointing in China, markets are not pricing in more monetary easing from the central bank. In this piece, Wei reviews the arguments currently being made for keeping interest rates on hold—and finds them all wanting. China’s policymakers are indeed being quite conservative, but will still end up cutting rates.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Fed Turns Inflation Risk Manager

    At the start of 2021, not many investors expected the Federal Reserve to close the year by winding down its asset purchases. So why is it now tapering, and what comes next for US monetary policy and markets? In this piece, Will seeks to explain.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Risks Of The Property Tax Transition

    China’s property market is heading into uncharted territory following a formal authorization for the government to carry out regional pilots of a property tax. The goals of such a tax are clear: reduce speculation and diversify local government revenues. However, Rosealea explains that the transition to this tax will be tricky and not without risk.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Decarbonization’s Disruptions

    Media attention at this month’s COP26 climate talks in Glasgow will focus on which promises governments make to combat climate change. Yet this distracts from the substantive questions the world will need to grapple with in the next several years as the promised energy transition moves into gear.

    9
Show me: results