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E.g., 20-01-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    Musings On Brexit

    With the UK’s elite intent on frustrating the democratically-expressed will of the British people to quit the EU, the lesson for the rest of the continent is that there can be no legal or peaceful exit from the technocratic super-state. As Charles argues here, this increases the probability of disorderly exits in the future, and therefore greatly heightens European political risk.

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Incredible Shrinking Current Account

    China once had the world’s largest current-account surplus, but that surplus headed rapidly toward zero in 2018. In this piece, Chen Long unpacks the structural and cyclical factors behind this shift. He doubts China is headed for a persistent current-account deficit just yet, but thinks the smaller surplus will make the currency more volatile.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    India's Acceleration Phenomenon

    As China’s market grows more mature, multinationals and investors are increasingly looking to households in emerging economies elsewhere to deliver the next big growth surge in demand for consumer goods and services. Above all they are pinning their hopes on India. With a population of 1.3bn, most aged under 30, and a GDP forecast by the International Monetary Fund to expand by 7.4% in 2019, India is easily the world’s fastest-growing major...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    It's Not All Bad News In Property

    China’s property market keeps delivering bad news: declines in housing sales, land sales and prices have deepened in recent months. But Rosealea sees some positive signs in easing local government policies, lower bank funding costs, and strong momentum in construction. In this piece, she explains why she is not joining the property-market bears.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2019

    The last quarter of 2018 proved to be something of a horror show for most investors and despite this year starting with a firmer tone, the investment landscape looks to have changed in a fairly profound way. In this report, Louis considers the major shifts in the investment environment and asks whether these conditions will persist through 2019.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Cold Winter In China's Job Market

    China’s job market was an early casualty of the US-China trade conflict, with industrial layoffs accelerating to a pace last seen in 2015-6. But Ernan argues that the situation is worse this time, as service-sector employers are being squeezed by tighter regulations. The weaker job market means a worsening outlook for household spending in 2019.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    More Than RRR Cuts Needed To Stabilize Growth

    After the central bank's latest cut in bank reserve requirements, the key question is not whether Beijing will continue to loosen policy, but when its measures will begin to have a visible impact. In this piece, Chen Long argues that it will take several more months of easing before the economy and stock market begin to feel the benefit.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    This Century's Suez Crisis

    China’s “Belt and Road” initiative is a clear bid by Beijing to challenge the incumbent imperial power: the US. And in an age when the highest-value commodities are not physical goods, but the binary digits zipping around the world at the speed of light, the battleground of this struggle for dominance will be telecommunication networks.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China And The US Still Hold The Keys To Markets' Fate

    In 2018 liquidity tightening in the US and China combined with trade war fears to make a miserable year for markets. In 2019 the same forces will be at work but the outcomes may differ. The key questions are: can the US and China work out a trade deal? How bad is the Chinese slowdown and how will Beijing respond? And how much will the Fed tighten?

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why China Can Succeed In Tech

    Technology is at the heart of the US-China trade conflict. The US fears that China will challenge its technological leadership, and those fears are not without foundation. In this piece, Dan argues that China is in fact likely to succeed in many of its technological goals—but because of successful companies rather than big government plans.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Getting Out Of The Liquidity Squeeze

    With the Trump-Xi summit, compromise between Rome and Brussels, and the oil price down, all the ingredients should have been in the mix for a Santa Claus rally. Instead it's been an ugly few weeks in the markets, which strongly suggests no let up yet in this year's liquidity squeeze. In this detailed report, Louis looks back at recent history to determine what forces might bring the squeeze to an end next year, and therefore what asset...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    2019 Will Get Off To A Rocky Start

    China’s growth data continue to disappoint, as Beijing’s easing policies have not still gotten traction. In this piece, Chen Long explains his outlook for 2019: more easing is coming, but it will take a while for those policy changes to deliver a stabilization in growth. That means there will likely be more bad economic news through early 2019.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    Our 2018 Holiday Reading List

    “Books,” wrote Anthony Powell, “do furnish a room.” As author of the million-word, 12-volume A Dance To The Music of Time, Powell was something of an authority on the subject. But it is unlikely even his library was as eclectically furnished as Gavekal’s. If anything, our 2018 holiday reading list is even more varied than those of recent years. Sure, we’ve read and reviewed the economic and financial heavyweights: Barry Eichengreen on currencies...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Supply-Chain Migration Begins

    The US-China trade conflict has changed the equation for multinational companies’ supply chains in China. Higher tariffs and increased uncertainty are pushing some firms to invest more in other locations. But Dan argues that most firms have strong reasons to stay in China, so the shift in supply chains will be more of a trickle than a flood.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Careless Loss Of Indian Central Bankers

    To lose one central bank governor may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose a second one, as India did yesterday, looks like carelessness bordering on recklessness. Urjit Patel’s resignation, after resisting months of pressure from the ruling BJP to ease credit conditions and hand over some of its cash reserves, is another black mark against the government.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Steel Prices Have Overshot

    Chinese steel prices suffered their biggest decline in two years in November, falling about 20% over the course of the month. That correction was driven by a combination of a big increase in supply along with worries about future demand. In this piece, Rosealea argues that both problems will be short-lived, and that steel prices can rebound.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Real Gilets Jaunes

    France’s yellow vest protest movement may have been the first since 1789 not to stem from left-wing origins, argues Charles. Instead, it reflected a great uprising by the forgotten people of middle France who have had enough of being the piggy bank that funds the lives of an urban elite which has rigged the system to its favor.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Macron’s Reform Program Lives On

    At first sight, the French government’s decision to postpone its proposed fuel tax increases in the face of popular gilet jaune street protests looks a lot like the climb-downs of 1996, 2006 and 2016, all of which saw attempts at economic reform derailed by mass opposition. Cedric argues such a conclusion would be overly hasty.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Next Target Of Trump’s Firepower

    In today’s Daily, Arthur Kroeber offered his analysis of the weekend’s Trump-Xi summit in Buenos Aires. In this short report, Louis takes a slightly different tack, reviewing the series of tumultuous events in recent weeks. His conclusion is that few investors’ portfolios are well positioned for the probable outcome.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Germany Is Rethinking But Not Rejecting China

    As the US-China trade conflict drags on, both sides are looking to Europe, particularly Germany, for support. Germany does share US concerns about China’s protectionism and expansionism. But it still sees China as an economic boon and is committed to engagement. Berlin is therefore unlikely to fully take the side of either Beijing or Washington.

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