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E.g., 26-05-2019
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2011 - Russian Far East

    Russian Far East: The bear and the dragon

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Economic Survey

    CEQ economic survey (Q2 2011)

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Yangtze Transport

    Yantgtze River: Building a golden waterway

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Stern Hu and Resource Sector HR

    Metals Man: Expats strike back

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Property

    Property: A plague o' both your houses!

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Capital Markets

    Capital markets: Older and duller

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Migrant Workers

    Migrant workers: Second-class citizens

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    CEQ Q2 2011 - Public Debt

    Public debt: The magic mountain

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - A Fragile Rally?

    Risk assets have, in the past few trading sessions, been pushing higher (with copper moving back above its 200-day moving average, oil moving back above US$100/bbl, the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average…). Now interestingly, behind this rally is not the promise of a magical solution to Europe’s woes, nor a sudden improvement in macro numbers, nor encouraging corporate earnings. Instead, it seems that the inverse logic of “bad is good”...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chongqing: China's New Model Worker?

    Visitors to the Chongqing pavilion at last year’s Shanghai Expo were greeted by a huge map of the municipality that lit up to reveal a flaming phoenix. Inspired by a bronze “sun bird” dug up in a Chongqing field, the phoenix was a fitting symbol for a city chosen by Beijing to lead the rebirth of China’s underdeveloped western provinces. Under the dynamic leadership of Party Secretary Bo Xilai and Mayor Huang Qifan, who have battered the mafia...

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    GaveKal Daily - Relative Value in Equities vs. Junk Bonds

    In a world where risk-free bond yields have been driven to Lilliputian levels, the hunt for higher fixed-income returns has become a lively industry. Some higher-yielding currencies, such as the AUD, are now more overvalued than they have ever been, while countries like Brazil and Indonesia have thrown up a few capital-control barriers to stave off hot inflows. However, one sector that is happily welcoming the yield-hunt is non-grade A...

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    Gavekal Research

    Can Apple Make Movies?

    As the internet rapidly changes the landscape of the entertainment industry, content creators have been facing competition from all sides. Internet-based distributors like Netflix are driving down prices as content streaming becomes inexpensive (US$1 per standard Netflix DVD shipment vs US$0.05 per stream). Then there are tech firms like Apple, that view content largely as a means of selling hardware (e.g., it makes less money through sales of...

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    Gavekal Research

    Will the Krona Be a Victim of its Own Success?

    We have long argued that the Swedish currency has all the elements of a hedge against European risk (see The Nordic Hedge): an undervalued currency on a PPP basis, low public sector debt, buoyant economic growth, rising asset markets and widening interest rate differentials with the Euro.

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    Gavekal Research

    From a Sovereign Crisis to a Banking Crisis

    Let us elaborate on the three crisis solutions named in Europe and the Typology of Government Debt, and try to gauge their potential impact:

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    Gavekal Research

    The Typology of Government Debt - Charles Gave

    When buying a government bond, investors usually focus on two factors: the interest rate one is receiving and the time period in which one’s money is going to be repaid. These days, however, another question has become just as important: is there a risk that the principal will not be repaid in full? Indeed, for the first time in many cycles, the notion that some “serious countries” may not be able to meet their commitments is quickly spreading—i...

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    Gavekal Research

    The ‘Bo Bun’ Trade

    Trading in the European bond markets is no longer what it used to be. The relationship between bond performance and the economic cycle has completely broken down since the beginning of the Euro crisis. Germany is in the midst of an economic boom, but its bonds yields are near historic lows because of the safe-haven status of the Bund market (see Northern European Prosperity and the Bund Hedge). Reciprocally, deflation in the EMU periphery is...

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    GaveKal Daily - Renewed Concerns About US Housing

    Friday saw the release of a very disappointing US pending home sales number. Indeed, not only was the -12% MoM reported number materially lower than the expected -1% change, but, to add insult to injury, there was also a downward revision of March’s numbers, from +5.1% to +3.5%. Now we could pass this off as just another number amongst a sea of US housing data, but we believe that the importance of the pending home sales release is often...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - ForEx Reserves

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - China's Naked Swimmers

    At the risk of appearing increasingly parochial, we would like to return, for the third day in a row, to the Hong Kong and Chinese market. In recent days, the price of a number of China-related mid and small caps stocks have been pulling back rather aggressively (whether listed in NY, Singapore, HK etc…). The reasons behind this ‘mini-crash’ are varied; on Wednesday, we discussed a number of macro-concerns weighing on the outlook for Chinese...

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    GaveKal Daily - The Rising Popularity of RMB Deposits in Hong Kong

    In the past few years, many investors have been willing to hold HKD despite a slightly lower interest rate to the equivalent in USD. This is in part because HK was seen as a proxy for the RMB, the idea being that the HKD would eventually be either re-pegged at a higher rate to USD, or simply pegged to the RMB itself. But why use a substitute when one can have the real thing? These days, more and more depositors in Hong Kong’s banking system are...

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