E.g., 26-01-2022
E.g., 26-01-2022
We have found 13351 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Demise Of The Anti-Fragile Asset Classes And Consequences

    Early in my career, I had the good fortune to work through the Asian Crisis, which saw the price of equities, bonds, currencies and real estate collapse and keep falling as if no bottom would ever be found. At the time, Charles told me: “Never do on Monday what you wish you’d done on Friday”. His logic was that leaving the office on a Friday night with unfinished business and a stomach knot would lead to a weekend of reading apocalyptic articles...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Playing The US Equity Sell-Off

    As investors have priced in the prospect of more aggressive US rate rises and higher yields, the main US equity indexes are either in or approaching correction territory. With some observers warning that the sell-off is the start of a bear market, and others arguing that it is a buying opportunity, it is natural to ask how long the sell-off will continue.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Sweat Higher US Yields

    Last week, Charles warned investors to watch out lest a rising cost of credit relative to the returns corporations can generate on their investments push the US economy into recession. He is right to be on the alert. But this cycle has been anything but typical. So, it makes sense to ask whether rising real yields pose the same risk in this cycle as before.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Rising US Interest Rates

    I must say that I am amused. After years of brainwashing, the Federal Reserve has apparently convinced most market participants of two things: (i) it can fully control interest rates and (ii) it will never again raise interest rates.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: To Rotate Or Not To Rotate

    Louis is convinced that the trend of higher energy prices, steeper yield curves and value stock outperformance is here to stay—at least until some major event comes along to change the story. Anatole, by contrast, continues to think that the inflation surge is about to be revealed as a scare and reckons that strong earnings growth will soon be driving a resurgence in growth stocks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Assets, Liabilities And The Renminbi

    Since mid-2020, the renminbi has enjoyed its third major appreciation cycle of the last decade. This appreciation cycle is now coming to an end. But Wei argues in this piece that the depreciation that follows should be much less dramatic than after the last two cycles, thanks to structural changes in China’s international investment position.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK Under Pressure

    With the knives out for British prime minister Boris Johnson, would-be successors in the ranks of his governing Conservative Party might consider asking themselves whether they really want to assume political responsibility for the UK economy at a time when inflation is at a 30-year high, real disposable incomes are falling, and growth is set to come under severe pressure.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Double Squeeze On The Frontier

    So far, emerging markets have weathered the Federal Reserve’s five-week asset purchase taper decently well—and there are reasons to think this can continue. Yet, look beyond the big EM names toward frontier economies and a harsher investment climate is revealed. The risk is that a contagion cycle unfolds, which ends up hitting EMs generally.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How High Will US Yields Go?

    The yield on 10-year US treasuries has climbed 37bp year-to-date to top 1.88% on Wednesday, its highest since January 2020, before Covid struck. In the near term, how high can it go? One way to assess the potential upside is to compare the yield on bonds to other yields in the economy and financial markets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Waiting For Developer M&A

    The offshore bond market remains worried about the prospects for China’s property developers, who look unable to refinance a huge wave of bonds coming due. Regulators prefer to see this stress dealt with by M&A deals, but so far transactions are few. To deliver the “stability” they have promised, regulators will have to get more hands-on.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The US Growth Stock Debate

    In a recent Daily, Anatole presented four key arguments as to why January’s sell-off in US growth stocks offers an opportunity to buy back into these long-time market favorites. The piece triggered a healthy debate, both with clients and among our team. It also spurred Louis to take the other side of Anatole’s argument. In this piece, he contends that the outperformance of US growth stocks has now come to an end, and that investors need to...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hedging Putin

    “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma,” declared Winston Churchill in 1939. Unfortunately for investors, the action of Russia is likely to be the biggest determinant of energy prices in 2022. And at a time when natural gas prices are up as much as 320% YoY and oil is at a seven-year high of US$87/bbl, energy prices are likely to be the biggest determinant both of macro conditions and...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Upside For Bund Yields

    Right now, it feels like a double blow for investors. It was no surprise that German GDP should have contracted in the fourth quarter. According to the national statistics agency, GDP could have shrunk by as much as -1% QoQ, as omicron worsened supply-side disruptions and high inflation, especially for energy, eroded real disposable incomes and squeezed demand. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year bunds has climbed 33bp since mid-December to hit -0....

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Further Easing For 2022

    China’s Q4 economic data release was presaged by a policy rate cut by the People’s Bank of China as officials work to counteract the country’s mounting economic headwinds. The Dragonomics team believes that China will continue to face downside risks; policymakers are therefore likely to ramp up supportive measures accordingly in the coming months.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2022

    In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Gold As An Emerging Market Play

    Spare a thought for gold bugs. At the beginning of 2021, their reasoning was clear. With all the money-printing and fiscal stimulus across the rich world, inflation would breeze past 2%. From there, it would be just a short skip and a jump to higher gold prices. Inflation did indeed breeze past 2%. But gold prices fell. So, what went wrong? As Gavekal has long maintained, investors should look at gold as a derivative play on emerging markets.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Quirinale Question

    The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investing Through Inflation

    When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Behind The Incredible Export Boom

    Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Playing Emerging Markets In 2022

    It is a significant signal for emerging market investors that the one big market move on Wednesday’s news that US CPI inflation hit a year-on-year rate of 7% in December was a sell-off in the US dollar. There was nothing surprising about the CPI print itself, which was in line with expectations; US equity and bond markets took the release in their stride. However, the US currency sold off on the news, with the DXY falling by -0.6% and the US...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Breakout Time... Again

    In early 2021 US bond yields charged higher, and oil and gold both looked poised to break out decisively to the upside. The underperformance of value stocks seemed to be coming to an end. Then two developments pulled the rug out from under the cyclical trade. Fast forward, and today we might be back in early 2021. Louis asks what could shock markets this time.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Demand Begins To Stabilize

    Chinese policymakers are scaling back their crackdown on real estate, having signaled a pivot towards prioritizing stable growth. The change in rhetoric has had a visible effect on the housing market, with a particularly sharp pickup in sales volumes in late December. This should lead to a further sequential improvement in sales and prices in Q1.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Four Reasons To Buy The Dip

    Is it time to buy the dip in global equities? One reason might be the absurdly panicky headlines that preceded Monday’s possible reversal of the global equity correction. But beyond the hysterical headlines, I can see four reasons to increase equity exposure, even though the S&P 500 is just -3% and the Nasdaq only -7% off their all-time highs.

    15
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Labor Market, The Fed And Asset Prices

    The first week of January drove home the extent to which investors and the US Federal Reserve have both lost faith in the “transitory inflation” story. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in December—tight by any standard. As a result, investors have concluded that the Fed cannot stay loose forever, and that tightening is likely sooner rather than later.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Supply-Side Shock

    Soaring infection rates due to the omicron Covid wave are causing widespread disruption to supply chains around the globe. A resolution to global supply issues rests on Beijing maintaining this balancing act, as it also moves to shore up growth.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Covid Containment Evolves

    After a string of outbreaks, China’s Covid strategy is evolving. No longer aiming for zero cases, authorities are focused on quickly containing local outbreaks. This has mostly worked well, and travel will be less restricted over the Lunar New Year holiday. But the harsh lockdown in Xi’an shows what can go wrong if the virus gets out of hand.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Implications Of The Kazakhstan Protests

    Violent protests triggered by rising energy prices have rocked Kazakhstan in recent days, prompting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to call in the Russian military in an attempt to restore control. Tom examines what the current unrest means for energy prices and the region’s power balance.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Peak Inflation, Peak Rotation

    As investors reassessed the risk of central bank hawkishness, European equity markets took a hit on Thursday, with the MSCI EMU index falling -1.4% to wipe out almost all the gains made in the first three trading sessions of the year. The sell-off was not universal, however.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    SWOT Analysis For 2022

    Despite a spate of exogenous shocks in 2021, currency markets largely remained placid, bonds barely sold off and the US equity market continued to scale new heights. This year, however, the global policy backdrop is shifting. Clearly, 2022 will be different from 2021. But how different? Louis analyzes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the new year.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    As January Goes

    We are only six days into the year, but most investors must hope that the adage “as January goes, so goes the year” does not hold true for 2022. After all, the S&P 500 is down -1.4% and the Nasdaq has shed -3.5%. And behind this pullback in the broader indexes, pain in the more speculative parts of the market is starting to add up. Since early November, the bitcoin price has fallen -36.5% and the Russell 2000 growth index is flirting with...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Validation For VIEs

    China’s policymakers have given foreign investors in Chinese internet firms an unexpected gift: regulatory validation for the variable-interest entity, a corporate structure which allows firms to skirt a prohibition on foreign investment. Thomas explains that while regulatory uncertainty remains for restricted sectors, a key risk has been removed.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Of Prices, Profits, Energy And Markets

    In various pieces over recent years, I have tried to show that most economic activity is nothing but energy transformed, and that economic value derives from "scarcity" or "efficiency". Further, US stock market returns can tell us a lot about "efficiency values" deployable in the future. These broad concepts can be tied together to assist in investment decisions.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US Equity Transitions

    Despite huge supply chain disruption, rising inflation and a more-hawkish-than-expected central bank, the S&P 500 index rose a whopping 27% last year and along the way suffered a maximum fall of -5%. Going into 2022, investors may conclude that US equities have hit “escape velocity” and nothing will spoil the rally.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bring Out The Usual Suspects

    As we approach the end of 2021, two questions come to mind for next year: Will the US tighten in 2022, and if so, by how much? And will China ease policy in the face of its slowing economy, and if so, how? In addition to these two established founts of uncertainty, two new sources have reared their heads in recent days.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Rethinking The International Liquidity Crisis

    In recent weeks Charles has published a series of reports assessing changes in the reserve of value that underpins the global financial system. In this report, he returns to one of his older frameworks for the US-dollar-centered system to see if it still has explanatory power. He concludes that it does, but he is not reassured by the findings.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The European Inflation Split

    Europe is again being split along eastern and western lines. To the West, the European Central Bank is holding fast to its belief in the transitory inflation narrative, with Christine Lagarde barely acknowledging upside risks. Yet to the East, the CEE-3 countries—Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland—are taking inflation as a serious threat. The Hungarian National Bank recently hiked interest rates for the seventh time in less than six months,...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Are Rock-Bottom Bond Yields ‘Irrational’?

    What has been the most surprising financial event of 2021? The 20% gain in equity prices, the 40% jump in oil prices and even the fivefold leap in US inflation may all have been bigger than expected, but they were at least directionally understandable consequences of the fastest growth in the world economy for 40 years. That explosive growth, in turn, was a predictable response to last year’s unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli, magnified...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    One Small Cut For Lending

    China announced a 5 bp cut to its one-year loan prime rate on Monday, the latest in a series of supportive measures enacted by officials to ease policy following China’s sharp slowdown in growth. In this Quick Take, Wei explains why future rate cuts are likely on the way, and why the cuts will be positive for Chinese bonds.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Tale Of Two Central Banks

    On Wednesday, the Bank of England ended its expansionary £895bn asset buying program, only to raise its key interest rate by 15bp a day later. In contrast, the European Central Bank stuck to its cautious script, saying it would buy bonds through 2022 and beyond if necessary. Of the two, the UK’s tightening approach’ looks most prone to a forced reversal.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

    US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Securing The Western Frontier

    China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Never Mind The Fed Hawks

    Even as the Federal Reserve chairman went out of his way to sound hawkish on Wednesday, risk assets rallied. On the basis that truth often hides in plain sight, the most obvious explanation is that the Fed had well telegraphed an accelerated taper to its asset purchases from US$15bn a month to US$30bn. A faster wind-down to the quantitative easing program means the Fed will be unencumbered in hiking interest rates sooner, if needed. That is a...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Welcome Reprieve For Property

    Chinese economic data stabilized in November as exports strengthened and the deep declines in property showed signs of narrowing—a welcome respite from the sharp drops in September and October. Even so, the sector is stabilizing at a low level rather than rebounding to previous highs, underscoring the need for continued policy support.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Not Quite Normal

    India’s economy is normalizing but is still smaller than it was before the pandemic began. Looking forward, changes induced by the pandemic point to a continued uneven recovery. In this quarterly update, Udith and Tom assess what this environment means for Indian asset values at a point when the United States is tightening monetary conditions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The US Infrastructure Conundrum

    As the central bank pulls away the punch bowl and the fiscal authorities push for a boozy top-up to give the party fresh impetus, the US economy faces an odd moment. With inflation near a 40-year high, opposition to the Biden administration’s sprawling US$1.75trn “Build Back Better” bill is partly focused on its inflationary impact. Critics point to the White House’s infrastructure spending program, passed last month, as having already given an...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Missing The Forest For The Trees

    In these strange times, I have recently published a few pieces looking at money’s “reserve of value” function. Yet in preparing these papers, I came to realize that over the last decade I made the classic mistake of focusing too much on what was visible, and missing what was obscured.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Green Light For Onshore Chinese Equities

    Chinese officials are signaling a shift in policy to counter downward pressure on growth, a move which Thomas and Wei believe will set the stage for a rally in onshore equities through 1Q22. The main risk is that policymakers under-deliver on their new rhetoric of stability. Meanwhile, the outlook for offshore Chinese equities is more mixed.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Money Supply, Reconsidered

    Money sits at the heart of the economy and financial markets. At a time when inflation is taking off and the US Federal Reserve is starting to scale back its money printing, investors badly need a single reliable gauge of US money supply—not a dozen or more. In this report, Will offers a new measure of money supply that he believes is suitable for today’s conditions.

    19
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2021

    Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

    0
Show me: results