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E.g., 29-11-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    When Risk Appetite Returns

    Whenever a currency crisis engulfs an emerging economy, investors nervously look around for the next shoe to drop. After the meltdown this week in the Turkish lira—down -20% in November; -40% year-to-date—precedents from the Asian crisis of 1997-98 to the 2013 taper tantrum suggest contagion might be about to spread to infect the rest of the emerging currency complex. However, despite the broad strength of the US dollar and steep falls in a...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Economy Retreats With Modi

    Last week saw India's prime minister Narendra Modi stun political friend and foe alike with a decision to repeal the laws that underpinned his flagship reform of India’s sclerotic agricultural sector. Udith argues that the likely losers from Modi’s U-turn will be the poor, as India’s structural growth prospects have just taken a big knock.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Houston, We Have A Problem

    Charles looks at global bond and equity markets, concluding that the combined effect of central bank policies and private sector indexation is creating a massive corner in the US dollar and US equities.The last time something similar happened was in late 1989, when Japanese equities made up more than half of MSCI World.

    11
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    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Impotent Signaling

    Media pundits were quick to dismiss Joe Biden’s release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a failure Tuesday, on the grounds that the price of crude oil promptly rose by 4%. They were harsh. Despite Tuesday’s rise, the price of WTI has actually fallen by around -7% over the last four weeks as the market priced in the prospect of an SPR draw.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Stimulus Won't Be Green

    As the sharp downturn in China’s property sector continues to deepen, hopes for the stabilization of economic growth are turning to the prospect of a “green stimulus” via two new lending tools. In this report, Wei explains why the impact of these tools is likely to be negligible, as they are no substitute for an actual relaxation of macro policy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Russia And The European Energy Equation

    The sharp rise this year in European energy prices has been widely attributed to Russia, which has declined to increase near-term supplies of natural gas to Europe in line with the region’s demand growth. Nick examines the incentives guiding Moscow’s decisions and explores the potential impact of Russia’s choices on Western Europe’s inflation and growth outlook.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Biden's Fed Picks

    President Joe Biden took the path of least resistance in nominating Jay Powell to serve a second term as Federal Reserve chair. It reinforces my view that macro policy will be driven more by changes in the economic data than changes in Fed leadership. At the sectoral level, these appointments should be positive for US bank stocks.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dual Strategy For Semiconductors

    China’s drive for semiconductor sovereignty is entering a new phase, with government and industry converging on a dual strategy to reduce vulnerability to US sanctions. First, create a domestic supply chain for mature chip technology; second, invest in new technologies that could offer a different path to competing with leading-edge products.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Tantrum, What Tantrum?

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, emerging market assets have come under selling pressure, much as they did in 2013. Yet, it would be wrong to see this as a “taper tantrum”. What cannot be disputed is that global bond markets have, in recent months, thrown a strop.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Consumer Outlook & Trends 2021

    China’s strong consumer recovery was waylaid by renewed Covid restrictions in 2021, which has kept services like travel and tourism depressed. The zero-tolerance Covid policy is certain to continue through 2022, shaping the pattern of consumer spending. In her annual consumer review, Ernan explains the cyclical outlook and key structural trends.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Charging The Future

    The world needs more batteries, both to power electric vehicles and store electricity for green power grids. China is in a prime position to meet that demand as it already commands a large majority of both current and planned production capacity. It is therefore probable that Chinese firms will be commanding leading positions in a decade’s time.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Contrarian Takes On Two Emerging Markets

    The consensus view seems to be that Brazil is too risky and South Korea is the big money-maker among emerging markets. Not quite so, say Udith and Vincent. In this webinar, Udith outlines why it may be worth it for investors to take on some risk in Brazil and Vincent argues that South Korea’s star may be fading as the export outlook weakens and inflation rises.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    An Italian Renaissance?

    Visiting Gavekal clients in Italy this week for the first time in 18 months, I have been struck by the mood of sunny optimism that pervades the country’s financial community. Arriving there myself with a relatively upbeat view on Italy’s economic prospects, I was expecting at least a partial reality check from clients. But pushbacks were rare and half-hearted. Instead, stories of thriving new start-ups and returning Italian expatriates abounded...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Real Yield Mystery

    One of Will’s key calls for 2021 was that real yields on US treasuries would rebound from their deeply negative levels. But despite the news of Fed tapering, real yields have remained stubbornly low. Here, Will examines a number of factors that may be offsetting the expected effect of tapering and concludes investors should be wary a rise in real yields on treasuries.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Shanghai Seminar — November 2021

    In our recent Shanghai seminar, Arthur Kroeber addressed China's policy moves this year, the decarbonization drive and the rivalry with the US; Thomas Gatley outlined the status and prospects for China's economy and markets; and Louis Gave presented his latest macroeconomic views as inflationary pressures around the world continue to mount.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    South Korea’s First-Mover Problem

    South Korea's central bank was the first in Asia to raise interest rates this cycle. Yet despite its apparent prudence, the market has focused on Korea’s worsening growth outlook and the BoK’s apparent limited scope to ease monetary policy. Vincent assesses the outlook for one of Asia’s powerhouse economies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Piling On The Misery

    Faced with a fourth wave of coronavirus infections, and in some places even a fifth, European Union governments are again tightening their public health restrictions. Clearly this cannot be good news for Europe’s near-term economic outlook. But how bad is it likely to be? A Covid misery index may provide a useful guide.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Inflation Is Still Not A Problem

    China reported a record surge in its producer price index, prompting fears that the country is both a victim of the same supply-chain shocks facing the US and an exporter of further inflationary pressures. Thomas explains that while these concerns are unfounded, domestic growth momentum is the real problem.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of Bond Market Moves

    The last month has seen a number of major shifts occur in the US treasury market which may well be leaving investors scratching their heads over how to interpret them, especially as some appear at first to be conflicting. On examination, however, the market is sending four clear messages. They are consistent with each other. But that does not mean they are all right.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Conflicting Signals In US Consumption

    The US recorded continued strong retail sales growth in October. But more forward-looking surveys are showing a deep deterioration in consumer sentiment as gasoline prices have risen to seven-year highs, acting as an effective tax on households’ discretionary spending power. In this video interview, KX weighs these conflicting forces to assess the outlook for US consumer demand in 2022.

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