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E.g., 20-09-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Riding Europe’s Second Wave

    The latest Covid figures from Europe make sobering reading, with countries including France, Spain and others seeing pronounced second waves of new cases. Equity markets, however, have reserved judgment. Yes, the rebound that started in mid-March has been stalled for the last two months as infections have mounted. However, European markets have not sold off significantly, despite this month’s US volatility. And an examination of the opposing...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Winners In The US-China Tech War

    The US government has stepped up its campaign against China’s leading technology companies, and already the measures against Huawei are taking effect. This threatens to severely disrupt global electronics supply chains, but creates opportunities for companies elsewhere in Asia. Vincent assesses who stands to benefit.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Embattled India

    India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy, exacerbating a slowdown that was already underway. In addition, India is engaged in a high-stakes standff with China over its Himalayan border, which may force an economic decoupling of the two countries.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Risks To The Consumer Recovery

    Consumer spending in China looks to be firmly on a recovering track, with Covid-19 under control and the job market improving. But the shock to household income in the first half of 2020 could still linger over spending for a while. In this piece, Wei explains what could keep consumption from quickly regaining previous growth rates.

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    Gavekal Research

    The First Meeting Of The Fed’s New Era

    On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee concluded its first meeting after Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell last month revised its strategic policy framework. The new framework boils down to a temporary increase in the Fed’s inflation target to “make up” for past shortfalls.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US Fiscal Seesaw

    There are some signs that Democrats and Republicans are inching towards a new spending deal to provide "enhanced" benefits to struggling companies and unemployed Americans. Yanmei argues that such a resolution would certainly buttress demand going into the winter season but a "no deal" outcome would not necessarily spell disaster for a US economy that is learning to live with Covid-19.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Challenge Of Valuing Gold

    Gold ranks as the ultimate “scarcity asset”, as its value is dictated not by its utility but because it is rare. Valuing such assets is tough as there is no “underlying value” to reference and prices are driven by the immediate supply and demand situation. Yet, in periods when both government budget deficits and monetary aggregates have rapidly grown, gold has historically outperformed—and it is doing so now.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    When Export Strength Is A Sign Of Weakness

    China’s manufacturers are back to normal, and then some. Exports and manufacturing output are running faster than their pre-pandemic trend in 2019, even as global trade is contracting. In this piece, Andrew and Thomas explain what’s driving those strong numbers, and why they are actually a sign of continued weakness in the global economy.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Death, Taxes And Covid-19: Things That Cannot Be Avoided

    Six months after the first western countries went into lockdown, data suggest that unless imposed very early on, lockdowns did little to avert excess deaths. With weekly death rates in many western countries now running close to decade lows, Louis argues that this leaves politicians in an awkward spot, with one of three possible policy paths.

    33
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    Gavekal Research

    Positioning For A Yield Curve Steepening

    Little about the Covid-19 recession has been “normal”, including shifts in the US yield curve. Contrary to expectations at the end of a cycle, the spread between 10-year and three-month treasury yields "steepened" by just 109bp from the bottom. At the same time, the Fed’s hugely expanded quantitative easing program has boosted demand for long-dated treasuries, which continues to compress yields. So what gives?

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Booming Recovery

    China’s economic recovery continues to boom ahead, with retail sales turning positive and exports continuing to outperform. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain why this momentum is likely to continue for several more months but might dampen towards the end of the year as credit tightens and the property market is reined in.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    A British Mad Man

    The world’s worst performing major currency, stock market and economy have all been located in Britain since Boris Johnson was reelected last December. This is not surprising. With hindsight, his decision to outlaw any possible extension of the Brexit transition period as soon as he was reelected fully justified the switch from bullish to bearish on sterling assets that I recommended immediately after this announcement.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Trouble With Covid Testing

    Last week, professional rugby started up again in France. The authorities have decreed that if any team finds that three or more of its players test positive for Covid-19, its games must be played at a later date. This ruling is being rigidly enforced even though in reality a player who tests positive has less than a 50% probability of actually having the disease.

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Of Gold And Gold Miners

    In recent weeks, attention has focused on the surge, and subsequent correction, in US technology stocks. Yet an asset class that has greatly outperformed the Nasdaq 100 this year is gold-mining equities. In this piece, Charles seeks to develop firmer investment rules for managing gold and gold-mining stocks within a portfolio.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Red Lines For Real Estate

    China’s central bank and housing ministry are putting together new restrictions on the leverage of major real-estate developers by drawing three “red lines” for the firms. In this report, Rosealea explains why regulators are targeting individual developers, as well as why she feels these red lines will have limited macro impact.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: From Bearish To (Conditionally) Bullish

    Anatole and Will presented their views on the efficacy of US fiscal and monetary policy in response to the Covid crisis, and outlined the prospects for the economy and asset markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Pained Tales From The Hills

    On Monday, for the first time since 1975, gunshots were fired on the disputed Himalayan border between India and China.Hundreds of incidents occur along the undemarcated Line of Actual Control every year, but this year’s skirmishes are the most dangerous for at least five decades.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Assessing The Midwest Outbreak

    While the pandemic continues to ravage the US, the last month has seen rates of infection decline across most of the country. That situation has recently reversed in some low-population Midwestern states, but on balance the US has learnt to live with Covid, and therefore a resurgence in the fall will not result in the kind of disruption seen in March and April.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: The Great Covid Crash

    India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy. After reopening its economy in June, business activity is again weakening as the surging number of Covid-19 cases raises the chance of more localized restrictions. Udith and Tom evaluate the government's response and give a prognosis for the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Open-Source Moment Arrives

    Most of the US government’s efforts to hinder China’s technological progress have focused on hardware, mainly semiconductors. But software is also now a front in the US-China tech conflict. As Dan explains in this piece, those tensions could make open-source software, which is free from most legal restrictions, even more globally important.

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