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E.g., 21-08-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    Not Such A Dystopian Market

    Although Donald Trump's lifting his threat to impose new tariffs on Mexico was good news, raising the chance of a US-China trade climbdown, betting good money on the US president getting up on the right side of the bed is ill advised. So, to maintain our sanity we should focus on US economic data and monetary policy, which turned positive last week.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The ECB Reloads

    The ECB may hope for the best, but it is preparing for the worst. As Mario Draghi prepares to hand over the ECB’s reins to an undecided successor, he seems to be restocking its armory.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Recession Risk Mispriced

    US treasury yields are up from their 21-month low touched earlier this week, but the market is still priced for recession. Sure, the trade war uncertainty is negative for risk assets. But there are good reasons to believe that the US economy will continue to grow, albeit at a modest rate. As a result, piling into treasuries at current yields is a dangerous move.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Navigating The Shocks To Earnings

    Chinese listed companies have lately suffered more than their fair share of shocks to earnings. In this piece, Thomas explains the financial and accounting problems that have squeezed profits in recent quarters. But he argues that, even with the trade war, 2019 is likely to be a normal profits downcycle rather than a disastrous one.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Italy And Europe's Banking Problem

    The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Malthusian Constraint

    Over the last few years, Gavekal has put considerable time and effort into researching portfolio construction in the hope of making the process a little more scientific. This research has led to some interesting results, and suggests some powerful investment themes for the future.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Multinationals Are Managing The Trade War

    The collapse of US-China trade talks and the ratcheting up of tariffs has intensified the challenges faced by global companies with operations that span both countries. In this piece, Lance reports on their range of responses to the trade war: some are shifting out of China, some are investing more in China, and some are not doing anything yet.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Trump's War And Our Problem

    In the seven decades after World War II, the most powerful nation in the world could be relied on to defend and promote free trade among nations. Then came President Donald. J Trump. Now it’s conceivable that Trump’s goal is to shake up the old rules-based system.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    EMs Hit The Trade Wall

    It is not clear if the latest trade actions launched by the US against Mexico and India form part of coherent plan. Such moves do signal that the US-centered multilateral trading system is hanging by a thread. This upending of the post-WWII order is especially bad news for trade-dependent emerging economies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Who Suffers Most In A Long Trade War?

    Markets have started to price in a long US-China trade and tech war, and we agree. The odds now favor an indefinite conflict. Damage from the trade war will vary based on a country’s trade-dependency and policy space. Big problems could emerge in Europe and in EMs exposed to China’s supply chain.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Yes, We Are In A Bear Market

    In late 2017, Charles argued that global equity markets looked to be topping out, and it was time to adopt a more conservative strategy. As things turned out, the global equity benchmark hit a peak in late January of 2018, and has not retraced that level. He now argues that global equities have likely entered a bear market cycle.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A European Vortex

    There is a big disconnect between markets and reported data in the eurozone. Bund yields are within a whisker of all time lows, inflation expectations have cratered and the Eurostoxx banks index fell -12.5% in May. Yet at the same, Europe’s macro data, while not great, points to stabilization after a 16-month industrial downturn.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Central Bank's Reform Agenda

    The escalation of the trade war with the US likely means that the People’s Bank of China will keep easing monetary policy. But as Chen Long explains, the PBOC will also be pursuing a structural reform agenda. It wants to boost lending to the private sector and move to market-based interest rates—while still preserving overall financial stability.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    An Ugly Trade War And An Inverted Yield Curve

    Will a trade war boost US growth and inflation, or instead cause a deflationary recession? The bond market is basically saying that a trade war will dent US growth and force the Federal Reserve into easing. Bear with my two-handed explanation, but there are also good reasons why it could also boost nominal growth.

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    Gavekal Research

    Harder Times For European Luxury

    It is conceivable that some European industries may benefit from the trans-Pacific economic cold war, picking up business lost to their US and Chinese competitors as a result of the worsening tensions. But one sector that will not benefit is the European equity investor’s favorite: luxury goods. European luxury goods companies now face tougher times ahead.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China's Options In The Unfolding Trade War

    China is widely seen as having a pretty miserable hand in its trade stand-off with China. However, Louis is not convinced that China has so few options. Here he considers Beijing’s scope for retaliation, and so leverage, from using its financial clout to spook US capital markets to winding up Kim Jong-un to start causing trouble for the US and its allies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — The US-China Trade And Technology Mess

    In yesterday's special Gavekal Research Conference call Gavekal's Arthur Kroeber and Dan Wang, along with Fathom China's Matt Forney, considered what the breakdown of the US-China trade talks means for the trajectory of the trade war, and what the blacklisting of Huawei means for the tech cold war.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: European Election Fallout

    The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Message In Market Dispersion

    Economic events create winners and losers. It is too early to say with confidence how the current US trade and technology confrontation with China will play out, or whether US tariffs on imported autos and the threatened retaliation will go into force. But it is possible to tell how great investors believe the potential disruption is likely to be.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Who Wants A New Long March?

    Since the collapse of the US-China trade talks, the public position of both sides has hardened. Top leader Xi Jinping’s call for a “new Long March” was widely taken as a sign he is ready for a protracted standoff with the US. But support for such a stance is not universal, as the surprising public comments of Huawei chairman Ren Zhengfei suggest.

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