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E.g., 14-04-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Propping Up Property Sales

    Housing sales growth is holding up well despite financial tightening and hawkish policymaker rhetoric. In this report, Rosealea explains why regulators are pressuring developers to cut prices, while increased household savings means more families can take advantage of these discounts. 2021 will therefore likely be a strong year for housing sales.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Canary Chirps

    In late January, just as the GameStop squeeze was beginning to attract attention, Louis advised investors “to keep European banks on their screens.” As the canary in the coal mine of global financial markets, eurozone banks would signal broader trouble ahead if they continued to fall. But if they rebounded, it would be a sign the global inflation trade was back on (see Third Time The Charm?).

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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Has Many Fathers

    As the economics adage goes, inflation happens when “too much money chases too few goods”. This is an oversimplification but it does contain a core truth: the monetary price of goods is dictated by supply and demand factors that impact both the goods in question, and money itself.

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    Gavekal Research

    US Banks And The Steepening Curve

    The brightening of the US economic outlook and the steepening of the US yield curve over the last three months have been positive for the shares of US commercial banks. The prospect of a return to normal as vaccination quells the pandemic means banks are more willing to extend credit. According to the Federal Reserve’s January senior loan officer survey, far fewer banks are now tightening their lending standards. Experience suggests this will...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Profit Cycle Has Peaked

    China’s corporate profits rebounded in 2H20 after a horrific start to the year, but the profit cycle is now close to its peak. Looking past huge base effects, Thomas believes underlying growth will fade toward 10% in the first half of this year and zero in the second—not a bad macro outcome, but slower profits usually weigh on equity markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: An Indian Blowout?

    Indian risk assets have ripped in response to last week's big-spending budget, and reports that a collapse in Covid-19 cases points to the country having achieved "herd immunity" ahead of max vaccinations. In this video, Udith considers both India's public health situation and the chances of fiscal stimulus kick-starting growth without spurring an adverse financial reaction.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will Stimulus Cause US Overheating?

    The US Democrats are declining to cut the size of their stimulus proposals enough to secure bipartisan support, and are instead proposing to push the bulk of their US$1.9trn package through Congress using the reconciliation process (see The State Of Biden’s Stimulus). Their determination has raised fears that pressing ahead with such a large fiscal stimulus at a time when the US output gap appears to be closing fast could prove uncomfortably...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Uncharted Territory And Portfolio Construction

    Charles has sought to codify his many investment rules into a rigorous portfolio construction framework, which includes identifying periods when returns stop being normally distributed and move into the "tails". Right now markets could be going through a phase change, and in this webinar, he explained why. He was joined by Didier, who who heads the quant team in Paris, and Louis.

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    Gavekal Research

    After GameStop

    Yesterday saw Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen chair a meeting of US financial regulators to assess the fallout of recent frenzied trading in “meme stocks”. There is unlikely to be a Dodd-Frank type response to this episode but a new administration may be motivated to act decisively. Yet the effect of GameStop may go wider, so consider the effect on the four key actors in the saga.

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    Gavekal Research

    Six Reasons To Stay Bullish

    Is the recent speculative mania the beginning of the end of the post-2009 bull market in stocks? Or is it only the end of the beginning? Anatole argues that today’s speculation is reminiscent of the later stages of dot-com bubble, but he remains a confirmed bull on global equities. In this paper he offers six reasons why this is no contradiction.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Other Emerging Markets

    Until hit by a wobble in late January, emerging markets enjoyed heavy portfolio inflows over the last several months, and there are signs the risk aversion wobble is fading. Although the macro picture favors the currencies of Asia’s manufacturers, other less prominent forces could cause the currencies of non-Asian, commodity-exporting emerging markets to outperform.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Falling Behind On Vaccination

    Despite its early successes in containing Covid-19, China is lagging Western countries in rolling out a mass vaccination program. In this report, Ernan explains why Chinese policymakers are not treating mass vaccination as an urgent issue and why a slow vaccine rollout could result in a drag on economic growth in late 2021.

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    Gavekal Research

    Draghi’s Return

    Say what you like about Mario Draghi, but he’s not one to shirk responsibility in a crisis. Almost 10 years after he took the helm at the European Central Bank to steer the eurozone through its debt crisis, on Wednesday he is due to meet Italian president Sergio Mattarella, who will ask him to form a government and take over as prime minister.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Cherry On The Cake

    After GameStop's wild ride, hedge fund managers must figure out where they can find "safe" shorts to counter-balance a portfolio’s longs positions. The effect of this quandary may be to change the investment environment in a way that either skews risk-taking, or just reduces it. This comes as a range of other factors, inside and outside of the US, are starting to flash red. For Louis, this all adds up to a new market mood that...

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Go-For-Broke Budget

    Indian equities have risen 7.6% in the last two days, after the government of prime minister Narendra Modi threw fiscal caution to the winds in the 2021-22 budget it presented on Monday. India will attempt to spend its way out of economic crisis, with a five-year plan for deficit-fueled growth. “We have spent, we have spent and we have spent,” said finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, after announcing big increases in capital expenditure with no...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Real Effect Of The Vaccine Row

    The fiasco of Europe’s vaccination plan and Brussels’ retreat from its standoff with the UK and AstraZeneca have has caused the euro to weaken. While this reaction makes sense, the euro is, in fact, unlikely to fall much more against sterling, while the euro-dollar exchange rate will depend on how politicians behave in Washington, more than bureaucrats in Brussels.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The State Of Biden’s Stimulus

    After Joe Biden set out plans for a US$1.9trn mega-stimulus, US Senate Republicans have countered with proposals for a relatively meager US$600bn package. In this video interview, Yanmei examines the options and weighs the possible outcomes.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Crackdown On Fintech

    Finance has been an exciting new frontier for China’s internet companies, as lax regulation and technological changes enabled a few years of rapid growth. This frontier era for fintech is now over. As Xiaoxi explains in this piece, China’s financial regulators are set on controlling what they now view as the overly risky growth of the sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Europe’s Troubled Trajectory

    For the eurozone, it seems everything went wrong at the end of 2020—and things have only got worse at the beginning of 2021. Unfortunately, hopes for recovery are pinned on a vaccination program which has been late to start, slow to gather speed, and beset by problems. Nevertheless, despite this gloomy prognosis, there will still be opportunities for investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Vaccine Slippage

    It is looking likely that most countries will miss their Covid-19 vaccination targets for 2021. This creates a risk of slower than expected economic growth, especially in Europe which take half a year to emerge from its double-dip recession. Moreover, any activity dependent on international travel or large-scale gatherings will remain severely depressed until well into 2022.

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