E.g., 18-05-2021
E.g., 18-05-2021
We have found 12958 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Departure From Past Standard Operating Procedures

    China is emerging from the pandemic stronger than its big economic rivals in the West. It is an irony that the US and Europe are applying expansive Keynesian-type solutions of the type China has deployed in recent crises, but now seems to be rejecting. The result, Louis argues, may be that China starts to enjoy a "triple merit" scenario.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Either Steeper, Or Much Steeper

    Hopes of an early vaccine rollout mean that investors are now looking beyond rising coronavirus infection rates in the US towards an end to the pandemic in 2021. The resulting improved business and consumer confidence will favor stronger activity next year, and therefore a steepening of the US yield curve driven by higher long term bond yields. On top of this, there is an appreciable probability that the Democrats could yet capture the Senate in...

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Race To Decouple

    Both the US and China now seem eager to reduce their mutual economic dependencies. However, such a process is different for either country: Dan explains that China’s reliance on the US is narrow and technical in scope while American dependence on China is more wide-ranging. The US therefore faces more complex challenges in the “race” to decouple.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Turning The Page On 2020?

    Monday’s vaccine news from Pfizer raises the prospect that along with the US election, investors will soon be able to stop worrying about Covid-19. Suddenly the hope that economic activity can return to normal no longer sounds absurdly Pollyannaish. This about-turn not only triggered a sharp reversal in a bunch of market prices, it also raised a host of questions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2020

    China’s property sector led the rebound from Covid-19 lockdown, but how long can the new boom last? In her annual chartbook, Rosealea explains the outlook for 2021 after a very volatile 2020. Housing policy has turned tighter after signs of overheating, which points to sales flattening and construction activity declining next year.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Markets And The Split Between American Trees And American Boats

    The aftermath of the US election points to deep distrust between America’s two great political tribes that could yet become a concern for investors. Charles worries that betrayal narratives in the US may lead to the Federal Reserve printing even more money in order to paper over the cracks of division.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Pricing The Post-Election World

    For once, everything went according to plan. The US election has passed without any big surprises—and the initial market reaction has been exactly what would be predicted in any textbook of finance, when a centrist and predictable conventional politician replaces an extreme and erratic populist as US president.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fine-Tuning The US-China Rivalry

    In almost no area of the US-China relationship can President-elect Biden fully reverse the combative approach President Trump has put in place. Instead, writes Arthur, the Biden administration will likely fine-tune regulations to balance US economic and security interests, all while working closer with US allies—none of which will be easy.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Let’s Build A Second Maginot Line!

    With the coronavirus endemic in Europe, the new anti-Covid lockdowns being imposed by governments across the region, including in France, Germany and the UK, make about as much sense as a second, smaller, Maginot line would have done back in 1943 when the Germans were firmly entrenched in France.

    23
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US Election Points To A Bullish Result

    The US election is tilting towards a denouement but a categorical result may not be known for weeks. That uncertainty is not good for Americans’ nerves but should not especially trouble investors. More impactful will be policy changes (or maybe the lack of them) that flow from the result. US equities, and growth stocks especially, have been buoyed by the chance of a Joe Biden presidency and split Congress.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: China's Grand Plan For The Next Two Decades

    While the US has been busy tying itself in knots over the 2020 presidential election, the Chinese government, with no electoral calendar to worry about, has quietly been setting out its grand strategy for the country’s development over the next two decades. In this video, Gilliam cuts through the impenetrable ideological jargon to identify the key themes running through Beijing’s long term policy pronouncements.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The 2020 US Election

    With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Post-Election Rally

    Heading into the 2020 election, the consensus among investors was that the worst possible outcome would be for a long, drawn-out election (check) decided by mail-in ballots (check), whose legitimacy would be questioned by one of the candidates (check), with the final result decided by the courts (most likely check). Yet on Wednesday financial markets cheered the vote. Why?

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: US Election & Global Investment Roundtable (in French)

    Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Didier Darcet and Cedric Gemehl delved into the results of the US election, and discussed the latest impact of Covid-19 on the global economy and markets. Additionally, they presented Gavekal’s latest research on portfolio construction.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ant Stomped

    Ant Group’s US$35bn IPO was set to be the ultimate market validation of the new world of fintech and financial innovation. But by suspending Ant’s IPO at the last minute China’s financial regulators have demonstrated there is still a force more powerful than the coming wave of financial innovation: the state. It’s a lesson that big tech giants outside China may also need to take to heart, as they face increasing regulatory scrutiny from US and...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The New Geostrategic Pressure Point

    Investors today are overwhelmingly focused on the economic impact of the Covid pandemic and the possible effects of the US presidential election. Yet something happened over the summer that although not at all traumatic by comparison, may end up having much more far-reaching consequences for world geopolitics.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Surge In Earnings

    Net profits of China’s listed non-financial firms surged in Q3, reflecting the fundamental improvement in the Chinese economy. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why business conditions, although improved, are not as good as the net profit figures might suggest—and why Q4 will likely represent the peak of China’s corporate profit cycle.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Is Still Benign

    The current investment environment in the US faces three clear and present dangers. The first is tomorrow’s election, the second is the resurgent Covid outbreak and the third, is the threat of an inflation surge, which could force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Thankfully for asset markets, the latest releases show inflation to remain benign.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Chinese Assets After The Recovery

    China was the first economy into lockdown, and the first to emerge, enjoying a rapid rebound in industrial production and exports. Uniquely among major economies, China has already regained and exceeded pre-Covid levels of output. The speed and strength of this early recovery was reflected in financial markets, with equities rallying hard, bonds selling off, and the renminbi appreciating on heightened capital inflows.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Hong Kong's Resilience

    Massive inflows of capital into Hong Kong’s financial system ahead of this week’s record-breaking US$34bn IPO for Chinese fintech giant Ant Group represent a major vote of investor confidence in Hong Kong’s future as a financial center, just months after many international commentators were writing the city’s obituary following Beijing’s imposition of a sweeping national security law. Vincent explores the underpinnings of this confidence.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Facing Down US Risks

    The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings. Will, Yanmei and KX assessed the likely fallout from November 3 and assess the latest US economic data with a focus on threats to the US recovery should the pandemic worsen and near-term fiscal responses remain uncertain.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Competition For 2035 Begins

    While much of the world struggles to make it through 2020, the Chinese Communist Party is setting its sights on 2035: its annual plenum closed with a decision on its broad goals for the next 15 years. In this piece, Andrew explains how China is adapting its priorities to a less favorable international political and economic context.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Multi-Faceted US Sell-off

    As Covid-19 cases soar and investors fret about the economic recovery being snuffed out, US equities are getting sucked into a gathering sell off. The worry is that the US follows the kind of nationally-mandated lockdowns now being adopted in Europe. We would make the point that in the US, other factors are also at work.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investment In The Post-Election World

    With less than a week to go until the US election, this is a good time to think about investment ideas that could work after November 3, regardless who becomes the next president. Specifically, four important features of the post-election world economy will, in my view, attract more market attention as soon as the US political uncertainty is resolved. These features are already reflected in asset bubbles that have been created by the Covid...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Bitter Winter

    Just a couple of weeks ago there were still reasons to be sanguine about the damage that rising coronavirus infections would inflict on Europe’s economy and financial markets. Today those reasons are looking a good deal thinner. Europe’s near term trajectory increasingly resembles a “W-shaped” recovery.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Themes For The Coming Plan

    Party officials are gathering this week to discuss China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, a document intended to guide the country’s development from 2021 to 2025. In this report, Gilliam outlines the plan’s likely major themes and why it represents the first step in Xi Jinping’s ambitions of transforming China into a “modern socialist country” by 2049.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Fintech Showdown

    China’s financial technology industry has been chaotic for two decades, with Ant Group launching pioneering new products while regulators and competitors play catch-up. With Ant Group ready for its IPO, the push-and-pull between the firm and regulators is grabbing institutional investors’ attention. Matthew Forney and Laila Khawaja of Gavekal Fathom China addressed this tension and also the broader impact of regulation on the country's...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Velocity Of Money And Its Price

    Let me go back to the old equation of MV=PQ, where money supply times velocity equals price times the quantity of output. When Covid struck the US, Q cratered and V collapsed (as everyone saved their incomes as a precaution against uncertain times). The only solution was for the Federal Reserve to print enough M to support consumption and stave off the impending economic collapse. But what happens next?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Three Key Prices: 10-Year Treasury Yields

    A core thesis for Louis is that in financial markets three prices matter above all others: the price of oil, the price of US dollars and the yield on 10-year US treasuries. In this second part of a three-part series, he addresses the bond market question. US treasuries are currently pricing in a highly deflationary future on both a cyclical and structural basis. Such an outcome would defy recent experience in the US bond market.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Dynamics Of US Curve Steepening

    October has seen the US treasury curve steepen, with the spread between three-month and 10-year yields widening by almost 20bp. In historical terms, however, the US curve remains anomalously flat. This suggests there is a greater probability of further steepening in the short to medium term than of flattening. With the short end of the curve pinned at zero by the Federal Reserve, possibly for the next two or three years, any changes in the yield...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Back In Business

    China is transitioning from an imbalanced, supply-side recovery to a more broad-based upswing as consumption and private-sector investment finally join the party. But policy is also normalizing quickly, creating challenges for property and equity markets. In this regular chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains the outlook heading into 2021.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Fiscal Panacea

    It’s been a big week in Europe’s debt capital markets. The European Union sold €17bn of bonds for its SURE job support program and Italy issued €8bn of 30-year bonds yielding 1.76%. The strength of demand was an encouraging sign, given the outsize role that debt-funded government stimulus will have to play in driving the eurozone’s economic recovery from the Covid crisis.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Facing Down US Risks

    Investors in US financial assets face a panoply of concerns from political upheaval, a worsening pandemic, uncertainty over near-term fiscal stimulus and threats to the highly-rated tech sector. In this video interview, Will addresses such concerns and offers portfolio positioning advice.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Biggest Event Of 2020 (By Analogy With 2007)

    What’s the most important event of 2020? Easy, you will answer: the Covid-19 pandemic. Maybe. But will it really look that way in hindsight? Sure, Covid seems pretty momentous today. But years hence, will it really be seen as a key driver of structural change? Or will the most important event of 2020 be regarded as something else entirely?

    21
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Crisis Averted, Hard Times Ahead

    This week, Boris Johnson got what he needed politically: a bromide from Brussels that will allow him to camouflage the compromises he must make to secure a trade deal with the EU before the year’s end. But it will be a minimalist deal that will leave the UK’s service sector out in the cold, increasingly shut out of the EU’s markets.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Banks Will Digest The Hit To Earnings

    The pandemic economy has not been very good for China’s banks, with net profits plunging an unprecedented 24% in Q2 as the government pressured them to sacrifice profits. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains why things are not actually so bad: bank profits have been hurt mainly by aggressive provisioning requirements, which are likely to ease in 2021.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Divergence In Emerging Markets

    Emerging markets have had very different pandemic experiences and the effects are showing up in economic data and market performance. Northeast Asian economies offer strong growth opportunities while southeast Asia is muddling through in a way that favors bond investors. The good news in Asia is that struggling economies such as India and Indonesia are pursuing reform initiatives. The picture is less rosy in Latin America, while Turkey offers...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Smoking Gun

    Throughout my career, I have always found that it pays to bear in mind Jacques Rueff’s notion of US “imperial privilege.” Put succinctly: the US has long been the only country able to settle its current account deficits in its own currency. So, when the US runs a current account deficit, it pumps large quantities of US dollars abroad, many of which flow into the foreign exchange reserves of countries running current account surpluses. These...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Erdoğan’s Dangerous Game

    Turkey’s economy is in crisis. The International Monetary Fund is forecasting a -5% contraction in GDP this year, the Turkish lira is down -28% against the euro year-to-date, unemployment and inflation are both in double digits, and bond yields are soaring. Yet President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pressing ahead with costly military adventures. Turkey tested its new Russian missile air-defense system in mid-October, defying its NATO allies. It is...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The World’s Best Manufacturer

    The strong performance of China’s manufacturing sector reflects both the country’s success in getting the virus under control as well as its long-established manufacturing strengths. In this report, Dan explains why multinationals are reluctant to leave a country they’ve built up to be the world’s best manufacturer.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Different Strokes For Different EM Folks

    Last spring, key beneficiaries of the rich world’s fiscal and monetary largesse were emerging market economies, which enjoyed unprecedented policy flexibility that gave broad-based, if not universal, financial relief. The next turn in this crisis is, however, unlikely to float as many boats, as shown by divergent inflationary trends across EM economies.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The State Of The US Consumer

    Data released on Friday showed that US retail sales rose a welcome 1.9% month-on-month in September. However, fears are growing that the stars are now aligning against the US consumer. First, new Covid infections are climbing rapidly to rival the numbers seen at the height of July’s second wave. With government infectious diseases boss Anthony Fauci warning that things are set to get worse heading into winter, this new wave of infections raises...

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Return To Normality

    China’s recovery story continues apace, with strong showings in exports, retail sales and manufacturing counteracting a softening in the property sector. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team explains why Beijing is therefore unlikely to conduct further policy easing or support major infrastructure investment for the rest of the year.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Understanding Chinese State Capitalism

    The advance of the private sector and the retreat of the state sector has been central to China’s long transformation from an isolated socialist nation to a globally connected economy. Yet the notions of China’s private sector being either in the ascendency, or facing a squeeze in the statist Xi Jinping era are not born out by the facts. Andrew Batson discussed the findings in his recent major piece of research on this topic.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe Battens Down

    Having remained sanguine over recent weeks as coronavirus infection rates in Europe mounted, on Thursday investors sat up and paid attention. After the French government imposed a 9:00pm curfew on Paris and eight other cities, and after the German government tightened restrictions on Covid hotspots including Berlin and Frankfurt, the euro Stoxx index fell -2.2% during Thursday’s session. Clearly as infection rates have risen, and governments...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Funding The Future

    China has seen a surge in funding to “strategic” high-tech industries following US attempts to strangle Chinese technological development. What’s surprising, Thomas writes, is that this funding is coming not from public subsidies but rather from capital markets, with the firms leveraging government support to raise equity and secure financing.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Behind The Scenes Cash Boost

    US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s admission that striking a deal with Congress on a new stimulus package before November’s election will be “difficult” was blamed for eroding market sentiment. Maybe. But behind the scenes, the Treasury has begun to run down some of the cash hoard it accumulated between April and August.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Gauging Asian Resilience

    Since the panicked sell-off of March, Asian emerging markets have been a relative bastion of stability. Northeast Asian equities have done well as effective pandemic control and strong export markets have powered an economic recovery, while Southeast Asia has offered bond investors solid returns as liquidity from aggressive policy easing has mostly flown into safe assets. In this video interview, Vincent discusses whether the equilibrium will be...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Three Key Prices: Oil

    In financial markets, there are three prices matter above all: the price of the US dollar, the yield on 10-year US treasuries, and the price of oil. Get the direction of these right, and the other pieces of the investment puzzle fall into place. In the first of a three-part series, Louis examines in depth what could cause the oil price to break out of its current trading range.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    New Tech, Same Fiat Money (For Now)

    This week saw seven western central banks and the Bank for International Settlements issue a joint report on central bank digital currencies. They come not to bury cash nor to undermine banks, but to modernize payments for a digital age. If so, the introduction of CBDCs is unlikely to upend the banking system and monetary policy, but would resemble the rollout of ATMs in the 1960s.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Counting Europe’s Zombies

    Usually when an economy contracts, corporate bankruptcies go up. This time is different. In European countries, bankruptcies in the second quarter—the low point of the lockdown-induced economic collapse—were down by anywhere between -16% and -33% in year-on-year terms. By suspending normal bankruptcy regulations and offering generous liquidity assistance, European governments successfully prevented their lockdowns from causing a mass wave of job...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Typology Of Bear Markets Based On Wicksellian Analysis

    In half a century of doing financial analysis, Charles has acquired the core conviction that there is not one type of bear market, but two. Think of these as the gentle black bear-type downturn that is survivable and the highly-dangerous, big brown grizzly collapse that for many money managers proves fatal. In this piece, Charles seeks to map this insight with some analytical rigor.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Keeping It Super Simple

    Let me start with President Donald Trump’s policies as I understand them. As a businessman, since taking office in 2017 his singular goal has been to keep US firms’ return on invested capital as high as possible. So, if Trump is reelected on November 3, I would expect more of the same. In contrast, a Joe Biden win would lower ROIC and cause the US dollar to fall against the euro.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What The Holiday Means For Consumption

    Tourism over China's weeklong National Day holiday disappointed, with tourism revenues down 30% YoY. In this Quick Take, Ernan writes that Chinese consumers still seem concerned about long-distance travel, and are instead spending their money locally; however, the overall recovery in consumer spending is still continuing apace.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2020

    Yanmei Xie discussed the US team’s assessment of risks surrounding the US election, Anatole Kaletsky explained the reasons for his return to bullishness and Louis Gave talked about global asset allocation and how to find “anti-fragile” assets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Euro's Next Move

    The euro’s appreciation against the US dollar has stalled out as resurgent Covid-19 infections threaten new lockdown measures, and a possible upending of the economic recovery. Nick argues that the euro’s decade-long run as a “weak currency” was down to policy settings that kept domestic demand weak. A convincing reversal is not likely until those domestic drivers are again firing.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Not Quite A Game-Changer

    Earlier this week, Indonesia passed a sweeping “omnibus law” aimed at attracting foreign investment by lowering taxes, reducing labor costs and cutting red tape. In pushing through the new law, president Joko Widowo hopes to capture a slice of Asia’s shifting manufacturing-for-export business, as regional supply chains migrate away from China.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Guiding Principle Of Our Time

    The dominant guiding principle of contemporary western society, or at least of its elite, appears increasingly to be “CYA,” which we might euphemistically render as “protect your posterior.” In this paper, Louis argues that the CYA principle is increasingly governing fiscal and monetary policy, as well as how investors act in the financial markets. The implications are significant.

    29
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Phantom Mechanism

    In late July, Beijing declared that a trial “long-term mechanism” for regulating real estate had achieved “significant results” despite having never been properly defined. Rosealea posits that the mechanism is a combination of smaller reforms implemented in recent years, concluding that major policy changes are therefore unlikely for now.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    European Divergence Is Back

    Like a car, the more excess weight you add to an economy, the slower it drives. Slapping restrictions on normal activities, even if income support measures are offered, makes it harder for an economy to grow. In Europe, the second wave of Covid-19 infections is having an uneven effect depending on the severity of the outbreak and the sector composition of the affected economy. The result will be to deepen the divergence in European growth and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Antitrust Law And The Tech Cycle

    On Tuesday the US Congress fired a broadside against Big Tech, when a House of Representatives subcommittee on antitrust law published a 449-page report accusing Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Google of abuse of market power, and calling for them to be “reined in.” The report’s publication reflects a shift in regulatory thinking about Big Tech.

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No More Stimulus

    Within the span of a day, President Donald Trump called off Congressional talks over new fiscal stimulus and then tweeted that he supports sending more checks to all Americans. As Democrats will likely balk at such a deal without more support for the jobless, the chance of getting fresh stimulus before the November 3 election is dimming. That means no population-wide cash handout, no more business bailouts and another income crunch for the 15mn...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India Tackles Rural Reform

    Against an awful economic backdrop, Indian policymakers are pushing through long-awaited reforms to open up agricultural and labor markets. In theory, the reform package should boost competition among buyers, create a national market in farm produce, and help to modernize agriculture by attracting greater private investment.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s North-South Covid Divide

    If anywhere has been a winner from the Covid-19 pandemic, it is east Asia. Compared to other big regions, it has suffered lower infections, fewer deaths and incurred less economic damage. However, that generalization simplifies a big difference between its northern and southern regions, which have had quite different experiences that is also impacting the investment arena.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Flows Favor The Renminbi

    China’s renminbi has been appreciating in recent months, driven by heavy inflows into the onshore bond market and declining concerns about US-China tensions. The biggest risk to continued renminbi strength is the possibility that an election victory for Donald Trump sparks fears of a renewed US-China tariff war.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A US Dollar Check-Up

    Over the last month, the US dollar has caught a bid. Admittedly, the rally is small. Since the end of August, the DXY US dollar index has edged up by 1.7%, with the rise in broader dollar indexes scarcely much greater. Nevertheless, the recent uptick is causing some to question whether the dollar’s decline has run its course.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Real US Election Risks

    Some investors worry that a contested US election may spark social and political unrest that is serious enough to threaten US risk assets. They are likely focused on the wrong risk. The US’s democracy faces heavy strains but is nowhere near a breaking point, but the differing outcomes that can occur on (or after) November 3 pose threats to portfolios.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Dove With Ammunition

    Hawks want the European Central Bank to wind down its monetary stimulus once the immediate Covid crisis is over. On Wednesday, ECB president Christine Lagarde poured a large bucket of cold water over that idea. Speaking in Frankfurt about the central bank’s current strategy review, she made clear that the ECB regards deflation, not inflation, as the main monetary risk, and opened the door to a symmetric inflation target going forward. In the...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe In The Second Wave

    Yesterday Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews and Anatole Kaletsky joined Tom Holland to discuss what's going on in Europe. Topics ranged from how the economy is fairing in the second wave of the outbreak, what that means for asset prices, and also where Brexit fits into all this.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The State Never Retreats

    The retreat of the state from the command of China’s economy has been greatly exaggerated. In this 25-page DeepChina report, Andrew uses new estimates of SOEs’ share of GDP to show how little has changed in the state’s role in the economy in the past two decades, and explains how that stability has affected China and the rest of the world.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Evergrande Effect

    After a turbulent several days, on Tuesday China Evergrande Group averted a cash crunch that would have reverberated throughout China’s financial markets. In this Quick Take, Rosealea explains why Evergrande’s liquidity troubles are emblematic of the wider issues facing developers following China’s ongoing financing squeeze.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Sizing Up US Election Risks

    Tuesday’s ill-tempered presidential debate will only fuel claims that the US election could see massive fraudulent voting and therefore end with the result challenged in court—and maybe on the streets. Such rancor threatens the long-run viability of American democratic institutions, but in the short run Yanmei says the system can comfortably handle a contested election result.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK’s Savings Problem

    The British government's new job support scheme to take effect next month offers much less generous subsidies, and job losses are inevitable. Heightened job insecurity will mean increased precautionary savings, compounding the downturn in consumption. But the government faces institutional constraints on how much it is willing and able to borrow to plug the gap.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Belt And Road Looks To Bounce Back

    Even before the pandemic, it had become a common refrain to write off the Belt and Road Initiative. After foreign loans and construction peaked in 2017, China’s global infrastructure powerplay lost momentum. US-led criticism of Beijing’s “debt trap diplomacy” spread anxiety, forcing Xi Jinping to pledge reform. Then, when Covid struck, hundreds of BRI projects ground to a halt. However, Tom argues that it is too soon to dismiss the initiative:...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Higher Inflation Is Good News

    Equity markets often seem to have a split personality, but seldom more so than over inflation. A sizable portion of investors is worried that the Federal Reserve is struggling to overcome deflationary pressures, while many of the rest fear the explosion in monetary aggregates must inevitably lead to runaway inflation.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Strike Against Semiconductors

    US companies will now have to apply for licenses to sell certain technologies to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China’s leading chipmaker. In this Quick Take, Dan outlines what this means for SMIC and why it is too early to write the firm off completely. The move also increases the risk of Chinese retaliation against US firms.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Trouble Brewing In Thailand

    Thailand is no stranger to political discontent. But the mounting street protests of the last few months are different. Not only do they unite former rival factions, for the first time the monarchy is a target of popular criticism, and these demonstrations are taking place against the backdrop of an economy hit disproportionately hard by Covid-19.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Toward A US Health Care Rupture

    The nomination of a new Supreme Court justice with a record of opposing “Obamacare” means the US is more likely to see its health care system upended in the next nine months. Amy Coney Barrett’s probable Senate confirmation raises the chance of the Affordable Care Act being struck down by the court, spurring a plunge in government health-care spending and industry revenue. Multiple outcomes to this issue remain possible, but investors are likely...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Behind The Market's Mood Swings

    In recent weeks some of the biggest US equity winners since the start of the Covid-19 crisis have appeared to run out of steam, as the Federal Reserve abstained from stepping up its asset purchases. Meanwhile, Congressional gridlock seems to stand in the way of renewed stimulus for American consumers. Will is not too concerned, and in this interview points out that the Fed still has ample ammunition, and that the strength of the US recovery...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    EM Currencies At A Pivot Point

    Emerging market economies are heavily impacted by their currency’s level against both the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi. As the dollar is a funding currency, most EMs thrive when it is weak. In contrast, China is both a competitor and a key export market for EM economies, and so a weak renminbi poses a deflationary threat. Since late May, emerging markets have faced the ostensibly benign situation of a weaker US dollar and a stronger...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Taking Stock Of US-China Decoupling

    In yesterday’s webinar, Andrew Batson presented an overview of where the Chinese economy is going and how the relationship with the US is evolving, and Dan Wang addressed recent US actions in the technological rivalry between the two countries, particularly the latest executive orders on WeChat and TikTok.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The China Inc. Annual Report 2020

    After a historically disastrous quarter, Chinese companies are now enjoying a V-shaped rebound—but what is driving this bounce, and how sustainable is it? In his annual chartbook, Thomas answers these and other questions, dissecting the impact of Covid-19 on China’s corporate sector across sales, margins, profits, cashflow, capex and leverage.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Four Exaggerated Concerns

    As if markets weren’t nervous enough, US policymakers have been fueling the nervousness. On Wednesday, a series of remarks spotlighted a number of the main concerns currently troubling investors, including that the US Federal Reserve is out of ammunition, and that disputes over the result of November’s upcoming presidential election could drag on into the new year, plaguing asset markets with additional uncertainty. This focus appeared to...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Lockdown-Lite

    A series of controls have been announced by European countries in reaction to sharp increases in the numbers testing positive for the Sars-CoV-2 virus.This has raised fears of renewed lockdowns and economic havoc. But it appears European policymakers are opting for a lockdown-lite approach to public health restrictions in order to minimize the economic damage.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Illiquidity And Creative Destruction

    Covid came as a shock to the world, but in many cases it is merely accelerating fundamental trends that were already unfolding anyway. This probably shouldn’t be a surprise. If there has been one constant theme in Gavekal’s research over the last 15 years or so, it is that we are living in an age of accelerating creative destruction.

    6
  • Gavekal Research

    Don’t Waste Time Analyzing The US Election

    Over the next six weeks, investors will spend hours of mental anguish and spill lakes of agonized ink attempting to analyze the outcome of the US presidential election. Will it really be time well spent? Louis isn’t sure.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Caution Prevails In US Attack On Apps

    Last month President Trump issued orders that threatened massive disruption to two of China’s biggest technology companies. But the Commerce Department’s final decision on WeChat was less extreme than feared, and Trump’s blessing of a deal to avert a ban on TikTok signals a promising shift in the political calculus.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US Fiscal Seesaw

    There are some signs that Democrats and Republicans are inching towards a new spending deal to provide "enhanced" benefits to struggling companies and unemployed Americans. Yanmei argues that such a resolution would certainly buttress demand going into the winter season but a "no deal" outcome would not necessarily spell disaster for a US economy that is learning to live with Covid-19.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Winners In The US-China Tech War

    The US government has stepped up its campaign against China’s leading technology companies, and already the measures against Huawei are taking effect. This threatens to severely disrupt global electronics supply chains, but creates opportunities for companies elsewhere in Asia. Vincent assesses who stands to benefit.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Embattled India

    India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy, exacerbating a slowdown that was already underway. In addition, India is engaged in a high-stakes standff with China over its Himalayan border, which may force an economic decoupling of the two countries.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Riding Europe’s Second Wave

    The latest Covid figures from Europe make sobering reading, with countries including France, Spain and others seeing pronounced second waves of new cases. Equity markets, however, have reserved judgment. Yes, the rebound that started in mid-March has been stalled for the last two months as infections have mounted. However, European markets have not sold off significantly, despite this month’s US volatility. And an examination of the opposing...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Risks To The Consumer Recovery

    Consumer spending in China looks to be firmly on a recovering track, with Covid-19 under control and the job market improving. But the shock to household income in the first half of 2020 could still linger over spending for a while. In this piece, Wei explains what could keep consumption from quickly regaining previous growth rates.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The First Meeting Of The Fed’s New Era

    On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee concluded its first meeting after Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell last month revised its strategic policy framework. The new framework boils down to a temporary increase in the Fed’s inflation target to “make up” for past shortfalls.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Challenge Of Valuing Gold

    Gold ranks as the ultimate “scarcity asset”, as its value is dictated not by its utility but because it is rare. Valuing such assets is tough as there is no “underlying value” to reference and prices are driven by the immediate supply and demand situation. Yet, in periods when both government budget deficits and monetary aggregates have rapidly grown, gold has historically outperformed—and it is doing so now.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Export Strength Is A Sign Of Weakness

    China’s manufacturers are back to normal, and then some. Exports and manufacturing output are running faster than their pre-pandemic trend in 2019, even as global trade is contracting. In this piece, Andrew and Thomas explain what’s driving those strong numbers, and why they are actually a sign of continued weakness in the global economy.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Booming Recovery

    China’s economic recovery continues to boom ahead, with retail sales turning positive and exports continuing to outperform. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain why this momentum is likely to continue for several more months but might dampen towards the end of the year as credit tightens and the property market is reined in.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Positioning For A Yield Curve Steepening

    Little about the Covid-19 recession has been “normal”, including shifts in the US yield curve. Contrary to expectations at the end of a cycle, the spread between 10-year and three-month treasury yields "steepened" by just 109bp from the bottom. At the same time, the Fed’s hugely expanded quantitative easing program has boosted demand for long-dated treasuries, which continues to compress yields. So what gives?

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Death, Taxes And Covid-19: Things That Cannot Be Avoided

    Six months after the first western countries went into lockdown, data suggest that unless imposed very early on, lockdowns did little to avert excess deaths. With weekly death rates in many western countries now running close to decade lows, Louis argues that this leaves politicians in an awkward spot, with one of three possible policy paths.

    40
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A British Mad Man

    The world’s worst performing major currency, stock market and economy have all been located in Britain since Boris Johnson was reelected last December. This is not surprising. With hindsight, his decision to outlaw any possible extension of the Brexit transition period as soon as he was reelected fully justified the switch from bullish to bearish on sterling assets that I recommended immediately after this announcement.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Trouble With Covid Testing

    Last week, professional rugby started up again in France. The authorities have decreed that if any team finds that three or more of its players test positive for Covid-19, its games must be played at a later date. This ruling is being rigidly enforced even though in reality a player who tests positive has less than a 50% probability of actually having the disease.

    12
Show me: results