E.g., 16-01-2022
E.g., 16-01-2022
We have found 13337 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2022

    In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Quirinale Question

    The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Gold As An Emerging Market Play

    Spare a thought for gold bugs. At the beginning of 2021, their reasoning was clear. With all the money-printing and fiscal stimulus across the rich world, inflation would breeze past 2%. From there, it would be just a short skip and a jump to higher gold prices. Inflation did indeed breeze past 2%. But gold prices fell. So, what went wrong? As Gavekal has long maintained, investors should look at gold as a derivative play on emerging markets.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investing Through Inflation

    When assessing the impact of inflation on US markets, Charles has long believed that its actual level is irrelevant. Instead, it is necessary to determine whether price growth is accelerating or decelerating. He uses this insight to present a new framework for investing in inflationary times.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Behind The Incredible Export Boom

    Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Playing Emerging Markets In 2022

    It is a significant signal for emerging market investors that the one big market move on Wednesday’s news that US CPI inflation hit a year-on-year rate of 7% in December was a sell-off in the US dollar. There was nothing surprising about the CPI print itself, which was in line with expectations; US equity and bond markets took the release in their stride. However, the US currency sold off on the news, with the DXY falling by -0.6% and the US...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Breakout Time... Again

    In early 2021 US bond yields charged higher, and oil and gold both looked poised to break out decisively to the upside. The underperformance of value stocks seemed to be coming to an end. Then two developments pulled the rug out from under the cyclical trade. Fast forward, and today we might be back in early 2021. Louis asks what could shock markets this time.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Four Reasons To Buy The Dip

    Is it time to buy the dip in global equities? One reason might be the absurdly panicky headlines that preceded Monday’s possible reversal of the global equity correction. But beyond the hysterical headlines, I can see four reasons to increase equity exposure, even though the S&P 500 is just -3% and the Nasdaq only -7% off their all-time highs.

    13
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Demand Begins To Stabilize

    Chinese policymakers are scaling back their crackdown on real estate, having signaled a pivot towards prioritizing stable growth. The change in rhetoric has had a visible effect on the housing market, with a particularly sharp pickup in sales volumes in late December. This should lead to a further sequential improvement in sales and prices in Q1.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Labor Market, The Fed And Asset Prices

    The first week of January drove home the extent to which investors and the US Federal Reserve have both lost faith in the “transitory inflation” story. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in December—tight by any standard. As a result, investors have concluded that the Fed cannot stay loose forever, and that tightening is likely sooner rather than later.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Supply-Side Shock

    Soaring infection rates due to the omicron Covid wave are causing widespread disruption to supply chains around the globe. A resolution to global supply issues rests on Beijing maintaining this balancing act, as it also moves to shore up growth.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Covid Containment Evolves

    After a string of outbreaks, China’s Covid strategy is evolving. No longer aiming for zero cases, authorities are focused on quickly containing local outbreaks. This has mostly worked well, and travel will be less restricted over the Lunar New Year holiday. But the harsh lockdown in Xi’an shows what can go wrong if the virus gets out of hand.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Implications Of The Kazakhstan Protests

    Violent protests triggered by rising energy prices have rocked Kazakhstan in recent days, prompting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to call in the Russian military in an attempt to restore control. Tom examines what the current unrest means for energy prices and the region’s power balance.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Peak Inflation, Peak Rotation

    As investors reassessed the risk of central bank hawkishness, European equity markets took a hit on Thursday, with the MSCI EMU index falling -1.4% to wipe out almost all the gains made in the first three trading sessions of the year. The sell-off was not universal, however.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    SWOT Analysis For 2022

    Despite a spate of exogenous shocks in 2021, currency markets largely remained placid, bonds barely sold off and the US equity market continued to scale new heights. This year, however, the global policy backdrop is shifting. Clearly, 2022 will be different from 2021. But how different? Louis analyzes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the new year.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    As January Goes

    We are only six days into the year, but most investors must hope that the adage “as January goes, so goes the year” does not hold true for 2022. After all, the S&P 500 is down -1.4% and the Nasdaq has shed -3.5%. And behind this pullback in the broader indexes, pain in the more speculative parts of the market is starting to add up. Since early November, the bitcoin price has fallen -36.5% and the Russell 2000 growth index is flirting with...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Validation For VIEs

    China’s policymakers have given foreign investors in Chinese internet firms an unexpected gift: regulatory validation for the variable-interest entity, a corporate structure which allows firms to skirt a prohibition on foreign investment. Thomas explains that while regulatory uncertainty remains for restricted sectors, a key risk has been removed.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Of Prices, Profits, Energy And Markets

    In various pieces over recent years, I have tried to show that most economic activity is nothing but energy transformed, and that economic value derives from "scarcity" or "efficiency". Further, US stock market returns can tell us a lot about "efficiency values" deployable in the future. These broad concepts can be tied together to assist in investment decisions.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US Equity Transitions

    Despite huge supply chain disruption, rising inflation and a more-hawkish-than-expected central bank, the S&P 500 index rose a whopping 27% last year and along the way suffered a maximum fall of -5%. Going into 2022, investors may conclude that US equities have hit “escape velocity” and nothing will spoil the rally.

    0
Show me: results