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E.g., 01-12-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Yield Curves, The Euro And The Dollar

    The balance of probability points towards a steeper US yield curve over the short to medium term as US short rates remain pinned at zero and long-dated US treasury yields push higher. One might think that higher US long rates should attract capital inflows, but what matters is the relative shift in gradients, notably between the US dollar and euro yield curves.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Importance Of The Renminbi

    In days long gone by, the yen’s exchange rate affected asset prices around the world. Today, it is not the yen that investors need to watch, but the renminbi. And in the last few months the renminbi has been strengthening, with important implications for everything from global bond yields, through energy prices, to the relative performance of US growth and value stocks.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Bridge Too Far?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was the first central bank to successfully argue that being independent from government direction would let it foster better economic outcomes. Yet the RBNZ still seems one to break down barriers—or perhaps have them broken down for it. On Tuesday the Kiwi finance minister proposed that control of house prices should be added to its inflation remit.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Hong Kong Under The National Security Law

    Hong Kong has spent five months living under a tough national security law imposed on it from Beijing. The direct impact has been a sharp curtailment of opposition political activity that has sparked sanctions from the United States. Now, China has plans for more changes to Hong Kong's legal system, with a requirement for judges to be patriots. In yesterday’s webinar, Vincent Tsui, Dan Wang, Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard discussed the...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Covid-19 Changed Chinese Consumers

    China’s consumer recovery from lockdown initially lagged other economies, but now looks more sustainable. Discretionary goods are booming, and the online shakeout of retail continues, though other services and staples are less exciting. In this chartbook, Ernan presents a special Covid-19 edition of her annual review of the Chinese consumer.

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    Gavekal Research

    Two Equity Rotations In The Making

    Investors are bulled up on hopes that successful vaccine roll-outs will end the Covid-19 pandemic before next spring and the US will get a smooth transition of power that leaves an investor-friendly divided government. Since Pfizer announced its successful stage-three vaccine trials on November 9, managers have been forced to reassess their US portfolio positioning. That process has likely only just got going.

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  • Gavekal Research

    Video: What Prospect US Fiscal Support?

    Investors in the US are displaying signs of euphoria as they anticipate the end of the pandemic due to the roll-out of vaccines. But is this shortsighted given the lack of agreement over fiscal stimulus? Our US policy analyst Yanmei thinks the market has it about right, as the political stars are aligning for some kind of accommodation on a new spending package.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    This Time Is Different For Industrial Policy

    Chinese bureaucrats are now busily drafting plans to achieve self-reliance in high technology. But as Dan argues in this piece, this latest industrial-policy push will be different. Thanks to US restrictions on Chinese firms, notably Huawei, the private sector is already convinced that developing substitutes for imported technology is necessary.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Realignments Begin

    It was no coincidence the first-ever visit to Saudi Arabia by an Israeli prime minister took place a day before US President-Elect Joe Biden announced his choice of Antony Blinken as Secretary of State, indicating a conciliatory stance towards Israel and Saudi's mutual enemy Iran. It was, however, coincidence that the price of oil should advance to its highest since early March on Tuesday.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Boost From US Restocking

    As the latest wave of US coronavirus infections continues to worsen, the probability of a modest contraction in fourth quarter GDP is rising. However, there are solid arguments for believing that the worst case scenario for 4Q remains no worse than a mild contraction in output.

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    Gavekal Research

    Three Strikes And Still In

    In the last three weeks, investors in Chinese assets have suffered a series of shocks, with the suspension of the Ant IPO, antitrust actions against China’s tech giants, and the high-profile default of a local state-owned enterprise. Louis examines what may be going on behind the scenes, and sets out how investors should interpret these successive shocks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Dear Cedric And Nick, Allow Me To Disagree...

    ...in Thursday’s Daily you argued that Hungary and Poland’s effort to veto yet another power grab by Brussels represents a mere hiccup in the march towards a European nation state. You can add Slovenia into that basket of recalcitrants. I believe that these three countries are posing an essential question: where does the legitimacy of a government come from?

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    Gavekal Research

    The Scars Beneath India’s Cheer

    As India celebrated Diwali this month, there was some reason for cheer on the economic front. After a deep downturn, demand has picked up, the economy is primed to return to growth in the fourth quarter, and the manufacturing sector is firing on all cylinders. Nevertheless, the scars from this year’s contraction will take a long time to heal.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe And The Second Wave

    European markets were ebullient earlier this week on news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine may be approved for use early next year. In the meantime, regional lockdowns aimed at curbing the escalating pandemic threatens Europe's economic recovery. This all but guarantees loose monetary and fiscal policy for the foreseeable future. In yesterday's webinar Nick and Cedric discussed how this shakes out for investors.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Macro Implications Of Microfinance

    The surprise suspension of Ant Group’s IPO on November 4 was caused by the publication of new rules on online microfinance—a tiny sector that accounts for just 0.3% of China’s banking system. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains why microfinance is of so great macro importance to China’s financial regulators, and what they will do next.

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    Gavekal Research

    Limits To EU Solidarity

    This week, Hungary and Poland vetoed the European Union’s €750bn recovery fund in a fit of pique at a new mechanism that will stop money going to “bad boy” states deemed to impede the rule of law. With southern Europe waiting for EU cash to support its post-Covid recovery, the two eastern bloc countries hope to force a compromise that will stop outside interference in their domestic affairs. The issue tops the agenda of today’s EU leaders’...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: EU Summit Tensions

    European Union leaders are today sitting down for a high stakes summit. Poland and Hungary are threatening to scupper the EU’s budget and grandly-announced Recovery Fund if they are further penalized for becoming authoritarian and eroding the rule of law. The pandemic continues to demand leaders’ attention and Brexit lurks as the ugly beast in the background.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Second Wave Of Bond Inflows

    There was a record increase in foreign holdings of Chinese bonds in the second and third quarters of 2020, almost all of it from private-sector investors. In this report, Wei explains why foreign investors will likely continue to buy up Chinese bonds and why Chinese authorities appear relaxed about this second wave of inflows to the bond market.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Upside For Asian Currencies

    As global uncertainty has started to recede following the US election result and on the promise of effective coronavirus vaccines, so the skies have begun to clear for Asian currencies. Recently the components of the East Asia ex-China currency complex have begun to appreciate across the board at an accelerating rate. The conditions are ripe for this to continue.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Brake On US Growth

    Hopes for effective coronavirus vaccination programs in 2021 propelled both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 small cap index to record high, but on the ground in the US, accelerating infections and rising hospitalization rates prompted more state and local governments to order additional restrictions in a bid to slow the spread of the virus.

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