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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Taking Stock Of US-China Decoupling

    In yesterday’s webinar, Andrew Batson presented an overview of where the Chinese economy is going and how the relationship with the US is evolving, and Dan Wang addressed recent US actions in the technological rivalry between the two countries, particularly the latest executive orders on WeChat and TikTok.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The China Inc. Annual Report 2020

    After a historically disastrous quarter, Chinese companies are now enjoying a V-shaped rebound—but what is driving this bounce, and how sustainable is it? In his annual chartbook, Thomas answers these and other questions, dissecting the impact of Covid-19 on China’s corporate sector across sales, margins, profits, cashflow, capex and leverage.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Caution Prevails In US Attack On Apps

    Last month President Trump issued orders that threatened massive disruption to two of China’s biggest technology companies. But the Commerce Department’s final decision on WeChat was less extreme than feared, and Trump’s blessing of a deal to avert a ban on TikTok signals a promising shift in the political calculus.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Risks To The Consumer Recovery

    Consumer spending in China looks to be firmly on a recovering track, with Covid-19 under control and the job market improving. But the shock to household income in the first half of 2020 could still linger over spending for a while. In this piece, Wei explains what could keep consumption from quickly regaining previous growth rates.

    0
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    When Export Strength Is A Sign Of Weakness

    China’s manufacturers are back to normal, and then some. Exports and manufacturing output are running faster than their pre-pandemic trend in 2019, even as global trade is contracting. In this piece, Andrew and Thomas explain what’s driving those strong numbers, and why they are actually a sign of continued weakness in the global economy.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Booming Recovery

    China’s economic recovery continues to boom ahead, with retail sales turning positive and exports continuing to outperform. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain why this momentum is likely to continue for several more months but might dampen towards the end of the year as credit tightens and the property market is reined in.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Red Lines For Real Estate

    China’s central bank and housing ministry are putting together new restrictions on the leverage of major real-estate developers by drawing three “red lines” for the firms. In this report, Rosealea explains why regulators are targeting individual developers, as well as why she feels these red lines will have limited macro impact.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Open-Source Moment Arrives

    Most of the US government’s efforts to hinder China’s technological progress have focused on hardware, mainly semiconductors. But software is also now a front in the US-China tech conflict. As Dan explains in this piece, those tensions could make open-source software, which is free from most legal restrictions, even more globally important.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Victory Over The Virus

    With no new domestic cases in almost a month, Xi Jinping effectively declared victory on Tuesday in the struggle against Covid-19. In this Quick Take, Gilliam explains how China’s post-Covid landscape is shaping up for consumer services, and why Beijing is unlikely to open up internationally any time soon.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Restraint And Retaliation

    As the US government has rolled out ever more actions targeting Chinese firms, China has exercised restraint and has mostly opted not to retaliate in kind. As Dan explains, the government is taking the long view on the economy rather than pandering to nationalist outrage. But China is also developing legal tools that could be used to hurt US firms.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Good News For Corporate Earnings

    Good news for corporates: aggregate Q2 net profits for China’s listed non-financial firms were flat YoY, compared to a 50% Q1 decline. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why he thinks this recovery in listed earnings is likely to continue through H2; however, he expects Q2’s big outperformers to take a step back in the coming months.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Experiment With Sectoral Monetary Policy

    Central banks usually concern themselves with the economy in the aggregate. The People’s Bank of China is now experimenting with a disaggregated approach, minimizing changes in overall policy and instead directing the flow of credit to specific sectors. In this piece, Wei considers whether this experiment can work, and where rates are headed.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    An Acceptable Amount Of Chaos

    The first batch of 18 firms on Shenzhen’s tech-oriented ChiNext board under new registration-based IPO regulations exhibited exceptional levels of price volatility this week after their Monday debut. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why this volatility is to be expected in Chinese equities and might even be an improvement on the status quo.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dimensions Of Decoupling In 2020

    The “decoupling” of the US and Chinese economies that began with a trade war has now spread to almost all aspects of the relationship, with the Covid-19 pandemic accelerating the process. In this chartbook, Andrew and Dan show what decoupling looks like so far in 2020, using data on flows of trade, investment, technology, finance and people.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Understanding Dual Circulation

    Top leader Xi Jinping is now promoting a new slogan—dubbed “dual circulation”—to manage China's significant dependencies on the global economy. In this report, Gilliam explains how this does not mean the country is turning inward, but rather trying to gain more control over its long-term growth without losing its role as an international hub.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Climbing Up The Smartphone Smiling Curve

    Chinese advances in hardware technology have increased the country’s contribution to the global smartphone supply chain. In this report, Dan explains how Chinese firms have increased their value-added in both innovation and branding. Now, he suggests, the main headwinds for Chinese smartphones are no longer technological, but geopolitical.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Headwinds Build For Equities

    Chinese equities tapped on their ceiling this week but have been unable to break through, despite both surprisingly positive economic data and rebounding corporate earnings. In this piece, Thomas explains how increasingly adverse liquidity conditions are keeping a downward pressure on the markets which is unlikely to lift in the short term.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Death Sentence For Huawei

    The US government has passed a death sentence on Huawei. The questions now are whether it will choose to suspend that sentence, and whether China will retaliate by punishing major US companies. The likely answers, says Dan, are no and no. Huawei is probably finished as a maker of 5G network equipment and smartphones once its inventories run out early next year.

    16
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Don’t Call It A Bailout

    China’s government is finally rolling out a plan to aid small banks, the weakest links in the nation’s financial system. But don’t call it a bailout, Xiaoxi argues in this piece: while the government will replenish RMB200bn in capital, the money will mostly support relatively solid banks. The truly troubled banks will be shuttered or acquired.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Leg Up For Growth

    After plateauing in Q2, China’s economic activity is stepping up in Q3, powered by demand in housing, infrastructure and exports, and a lessening drag in consumer services. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain how these factors will assist the country as it continues down its path back to economic normalcy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hawks In The Driver’s Seat

    The China hawks are at the wheel in the Trump administration and driving as fast as they can. In this report, Arthur outlines the many tactics being employed by hardliners in the White House to lock in an adversarial stance against China ahead of the US elections. However tense things have been so far, even tenser times lie ahead.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Taking On Tencent

    President Donald Trump signed executive orders on Thursday imposing restrictions on Tencent and ByteDance, two of China’s biggest software giants. In this report, Dan explains how the broad language in the orders might end up blocking any US person or company from working with the firms, dealing a major blow to their operations.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Leading The Way In Export Recovery

    Chinese exports have outperformed expectations due to booming sales of goods related to Covid-19 and Chinese manufacturers staying open when their international counterparts were forced to suspend production. In this report, Thomas explains why China's export growth will continue to flatten in H2 as global trade catches up.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Bringing Back Volatility

    Cleaning up the messy world of wealth-management products is still a key mission in China’s financial de-risking campaign, even if the PBOC has now had to give banks another year to work on it. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how the regulatory crackdown is pushing the risks hidden in WMPs out into the open, increasing market volatility.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Assault On Chinese Tech

    After a whirlwind of negotiations, the US government may have succeeded in forcing the sale of TikTok’s US operations to a US company. The US earlier used national-security grounds to restrict the business of Huawei. Both companies still have large domestic businesses, but US government actions over the past year may mark a peak for the global expansion by Chinese tech firms.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Questions On The Digital Renminbi

    The People’s Bank of China is on the way to becoming the first central bank in the world to launch a digital currency. The idea of a digital renminbi has sparked a huge amount of interest, but confusion and speculation are rampant. In this Q&A, Xiaoxi and Wei provide clear answers to some of the big questions about the digital currency.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Construction’s Surprising Resilience

    After a robust recovery in construction following the Covid-19 lockdown, the big question now is whether this growth rate is sustainable. Using a rolling sum of construction starts, Rosealea posits that construction should slow only moderately in the second half, providing room for steel demand to continue growing for the rest of 2020.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Contain A Lingering Virus

    China is seeing its highest number of daily new locally transmitted Covid-19 cases since March, and government officials are rushing to contain the outbreak. In this Quick Take, Gilliam explains how China has developed a standard containment strategy to handle this and future outbreaks while minimizing economic damage.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Edging Toward A New Cold War

    The US decision to close China’s consulate in Houston is a big deal. The precise motivations are obscure but the story is not: the Trump Administration is turning up the heat on China before the US presidential election. In the next few months Washington is likely to make new moves pushing the US closer to a Cold War posture against China.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: The Supply-Side Recovery

    China has rapidly bounced back from its Covid-19 lockdown, but the recovery has been an unbalanced one with supply outpacing demand. Economic policy has also turned more cautious amid exuberance in property and financial markets. In this regular chartbook, the Dragonomics team outlines how the next stage of China’s recovery will proceed.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Marginal Impact Of Housing Renovation

    The State Council recently announced a nationwide target to renovate 39,000 antiquated residential compounds in 2020, improving accommodation for 7mn total households. In this Quick Take, Rosealea explains how the target will provide space for local governments to further tighten property policy without upsetting China’s economic recovery.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Steps In US-China Decoupling

    As the US election approaches, the Trump Administration is intensifying pressure on China on all fronts. In this report, Dan outlines the executive-branch agencies tasked with implementing sanctions and restrictions, what they have accomplished so far, and what tools are at their disposal should Trump decide to further escalate the situation.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Recovery Tapers Off

    Although Q2 GDP growth rebounded strongly after Q1’s significant contraction, sequential growth slowed considerably into June. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea, Wei and Xiaoxi report on why despite this latest rebound it will be difficult for the country to maintain its upward momentum as it moves into Q3.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Bumpier Road To Semiconductor Supremacy

    The Chinese semiconductor industry has made substantial progress over the last year, making credible gains in both design and production—despite attempts by the US to stymie China’s advancement. In this report, Dan explains how the US has escalated its anti-China campaign and outlines the rough road ahead for the industry.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Burst A Bubble

    Chinese equities surge ahead, and officials are worried that markets are coming dangerously close to resembling the dramatic boom and bust of 2015. In this report, Thomas makes the case that the current rally has no basis in fundamentals and outlines how regulators are trying to guide equities back to reality without causing a panic.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Monetary Policy Emergency Is Over

    The Chinese government bond market has seen its biggest reversal in more than three years. Conflicting policy signals have made the priorities of China’s central bank difficult to decipher; in this report, Wei explains why it has now clearly returned to its “selective” easing mode of delivering targeted rather than broad-based economic support.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Local Support For Housing Is Peaking

    National housing sales growth is likely to accelerate in June following May’s rebound on the back of supportive measures from local governments and easier access to credit. In this report, Rosealea outlines how the surge in sales might peak soon due to diminishing returns from local government stimulus as well as more cautious monetary easing.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Bull Run In Chinese Stocks

    Chinese equity markets are bounding higher on ebullient animal spirits. The CSI 300 index is up some 12.5% YTD in renminbi terms Monday morning. While the sequential rebound in profits from the first quarter’s dire situation has been heartening, the prospects for year-on-year earnings growth cannot justify this exuberance.

    9
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Japan And Korea Split On China's Rise

    Japan and South Korea have responded differently to China’s attempts to peel them away from the US. Japan continues to align closely with its ally, while South Korea is more ready to accept that China as the regional power. In this report, Yanmei and Dan explore the logic behind these decisions and what they mean for the regional power balance.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Uneven Rebound In Consumption

    The recovery of consumption in China is coming, but it will be an uneven one. In this piece, Thomas explains how the combination of recent negative surprises on public-health restrictions with positive surprises on jobs and income will shape the trajectories of different consumption categories, from food to autos to electronics.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The US Takes Action Against Military Fusion

    New regulations from the US Department of Commerce which go into effect on Monday could deny US-origin technologies to a broad swath of Chinese companies. In this Quick Take, Dan explores which firms are most at risk of falling afoul of these regulations and how their supply chains might be affected.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Future Of Hong Kong

    Whither Hong Kong? After a year of political turmoil, uncertainty about the city’s prospects is the highest it has been in decades. This 20-page DeepChina report examines Hong Kong’s historical trajectory, and concludes the city is in long-run decline—even though it will continue to be an important financial gateway between China and the world.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Most Cautious Of Central Banks

    China’s medium-term lending facility rate and the loan prime rate were left unchanged in June, while short-term market interest rates have risen. In this Quick Take, Xiaoxi argues that, though the PBOC is likely to cut policy interest rates further this year, the pace of rate cuts is likely to be slower in the second half than in the first.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Explaining The Iron Ore Surge

    Chinese iron ore prices have surged by 30% since May due to growing Chinese demand, shrinking Brazilian supply and increased logistics costs. In this Quick Take, Rosealea explains why prices are likely to remain elevated in the coming months but might fall precipitously in the second half of the year.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Range Of US Sanctions

    US President Donald Trump has pledged a response to Beijing’s decision to impose national-security legislation on Hong Kong, and has now signed legislation to sanction officials involved in the crackdown on Uighurs in Xinjiang. In this piece, Dan outlines the various legal tools that the US can bring to bear and their possible effects.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Arbitrage Comes Out Of The Shadows

    The Covid-19 pandemic has shocked China’s financial regulators into allowing a substantial rebound in total credit growth. But they are not worried enough to abandon their strict control of shadow finance. As Xiaoxi explains in this piece, a recent bounce in the shadow finance numbers is due to a popular arbitrage which is now being contained.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Beginnings Of A Plateau

    China’s economic data for May continued April’s wider recovery; however, Thomas, Rosealea and Xiaoxi argue that this upward momentum is losing steam. Weak external demand, tapering industrial production and Beijing’s aversion to further monetary easing all support the idea that China’s post-Covid bounceback is starting to plateau.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can Small-Business Lending Be Fixed?

    As China tries to get the economy back to normal, it is focusing more on the plight of small businesses, who have lost weeks or months of revenue to the pandemic. Yet it has resisted offering the loan guarantees other countries have employed. In this piece, Xiaoxi assesses the other tools China is using to boost lending to the smallest firms.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Threat To Chinese Tech

    The US is deepening its effort to limit Chinese technology giant Huawei’s access to components that rely on American design, which may prevent Huawei from rolling out 5G networks. The US is also broadening its efforts to constrain Mainland tech firms by using sanctions that impact suppliers to China’s government and military.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Property Balancing Act

    Local governments are balancing between encouraging housing construction and containing excess housing inventory. Although they have struck a balance so far, Rosealea argues that the growing vacancies in lower-tier cities coupled with depressed household consumption render current policies unsustainable in the long run.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    US Politics Versus Chinese Stocks

    Financial markets are the latest field in which US-China political tensions are playing out. Thomas describes two lines of attack US hawks are pursuing against China: blocking Chinese firms from US equity markets and pressuring US asset managers to avoid Chinese equities. The risk associated with Chinese stocks has therefore materially increased.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Charm Offensive For Supply Chains

    As multinationals in China face growing pressure to shift their supply chains elsewhere, China’s government is doing everything it can to hold on to them. As Dan explains in this piece, China’s ability to get businesses back on their feet after the Covid-19 lockdown is a great advertisement for its attractiveness as a place to do businesses.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: China's Economic Outlook After The NPC

    China research director Andrew Batson was joined by China macroeconomist Wei He and Asia analyst Vincent Tsui to discuss the news from the National People's Congress and what it means for China's economic recovery, the likely direction of fiscal and monetary policy, and the consequences of Hong Kong's national security law.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Property Rebound In May

    Property sales are quickly recovering from their Covid-19 crash, with upward momentum that should continue for several months to come. However, Rosealea argues there are growing risks that China’s property market will start overheating, forcing policymakers to step in and leading to a downwards drift by July/August at the earliest.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chill On Corporate Capex

    The Covid-19 lockdown led to a historic collapse in corporate capital expenditure in early 2020, but what comes next? In this piece, Thomas introduces a new model for understanding China’s investment cycle. Private-sector capex should stay weak in the second half of 2020, lagging public-sector infrastructure spending, but rebound in 2021.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Renminbi As Collateral Damage

    The rise in US-China tensions over the past week is taking a toll on China’s currency, which has weakened to CNY7.15 to the dollar from around CNY7.10, approaching its lows of last September. This has raised a worrying question: is China about to use currency depreciation as a weapon in its widening dispute with the US?

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Infrastructure Faces Fiscal Constraints

    Hopes for an infrastructure boom are rising after China’s legislature approved a record amount of bond sales. But as Wei explains, the Ministry of Finance’s conservative budget targets will still limit how much localities actually spend. Infrastructure investment is headed for around 10% growth in 2020, not enough for a very strong recovery.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Truth About Unemployment

    China’s government is promising to deliver stability in employment this year, although it has not made a full accounting of how the Covid-19 lockdown affected jobs. In this report, Ernan presents comprehensive estimates of the scale of job losses: in the range of 60-100mn. This is far more than China’s social safety net is designed to handle.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Aiming For Stability Without A Target

    The coronavirus has made a mockery of China’s annual growth target, so the leadership has done the only sensible thing: given up on it. In this Quick Take, Andrew explains how that decision, and the fiscal measures rolled out at the National People’s Congress, show how China is not trying to drive a rapid rebound to its previous growth trend.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Corporate Bond Crisis That Wasn’t

    China’s corporate bond market has not been bothered by the biggest shock to the economy in decades. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains why, since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been no surge in defaults, spreads have barely widened and new issuance has surged. A continued bull market in government bonds will be more good news.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A US Full-Court Press Against China

    The US-China relationship has deteriorated rapidly, and the main reason seems to be that Donald Trump has decided that a “tough on China” approach should be central to his reelection campaign. Acrimony between the two countries is likely to get much worse between now and November, and US actions are starting to spread from technology to finance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    April’s Fitful Recovery

    China released economic data for April showing a continued recovery in industry and investment as well as a surprising recovery in exports. In this Quick Take, Thomas argues that with exports headed for a substantial decline, this upwards trajectory is likely to plateau in May.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China And The US Race Toward The Precipice

    The rivalry between the US and China has taken a turn for the worse during the Covid-19 pandemic. In yesterday’s webinar, Tom Miller talked about how China has attempted to use the pandemic in its global influence strategy. Dan Wang updated viewers on the technology rivalry. And Arthur Kroeber outlined how the US-China relationship got to this point.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese Bond Rally Is Not Over Yet

    China’s bond market is selling off on rising optimism about the nation’s recovery from the Covid-19 lockdown. But Wei argues that this rise in bond yields looks like a false alarm: China’s economy is not about to begin a V-shaped recovery and its central bank is not yet finished with monetary easing. The bond bull market still has some way to run.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Services Recovery Gets Back On Track

    China’s government is substantially relaxing restrictions on travel, retail and other consumer services as its Covid-19 outbreak gets further under control. In this Quick Take, Rosealea outlines the near-term outlook for a recovery in consumer services, as well as the factors still weighing on that recovery.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Return Of Special Treasury Bonds

    China’s government will once again issue “special treasury bonds” this year, a tool last used in 2007, but has not yet revealed how the funds will be used. In this piece, Wei surveys the options on the table and argues these special bonds are more likely to fund indirect support to the economy rather than to ramp up direct fiscal stimulus.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China And Emerging Markets Update

    China has started to reopen its economy, but it is proving hard to get Chinese consumers and small businesses up and running again. He Wei and Andrew Batson provided the latest updates on policy efforts to revive China’s economy. Udith Sikand reviewed the broader outlook for emerging markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Military Fusion Sparks US Reaction

    The US government has unveiled new rules that will make it more difficult for US companies to sell high technology to Chinese firms with any military connections. In this piece, Dan explains the risks of these new rules for both US companies and the many Chinese firms participating in their government’s “military-civil fusion” campaign.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Earnings Crunch Arrives

    Earnings season for China’s listed companies has finished, and the numbers are not pretty: the aggregate net profits of non-financial firms fell by 51% YoY in Q1. In this Quick Take, Thomas assesses the damage to earnings and outlines the consequences for the corporate sector.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    New Infrastructure, Old Problems

    China is promising a boost in so-called “new infrastructure,” of which 5G network development is a major component. Dan explains how the scale of spending involved in building 5G infrastructure is too small to provide a meaningful boost to growth, and why any possible economic benefits from a faster mobile network will not be realized anytime soon.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why The Recovery Slowed In April

    Every economic indicator in China bounced upward in March, as the government relaxed its lockdown. But the trajectory of the recovery since then has not been as strong: many high-frequency indicators have plateaued in April. In this piece, Ernan explains how China’s cautious policymakers have kept many restrictions on daily activities in place.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Outlook For China Consumption, Labor Markets And Supply Chains

    In Thursday's webinar, Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented the findings of RedTech's consumer surveys in China. Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui outlined the status of China's labor markets and how they relate to consumption, and Dan Wang spoke on what the Covid-19 crisis is doing to supply chains both in China and globally.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Swift Recovery For Corporate Profits

    Broad equity indexes in China seem to be faring much better than they should, given the poor Q2 outlook for Chinese corporate profits. Thomas surmises this is due to investors’ belief that policy stimulus will grow to 2009 levels and continue into Q3—a belief that is likely to disappoint, leading to a potential correction in H2.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Steel Prices Signal Stability

    Steel prices have stabilized after falling around 10% from their peak, reflecting a relatively rapid recovery in construction activity from the Covid-19 lockdowns. In this piece, Rosealea argues that the steel market is signaling a stabilization in China’s domestic demand from improving housing sales and a boost to infrastructure spending.

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    Macro Update: Climbing Out Of The Hole

    After lockdowns produced a historic contraction in activity in February, China’s economy began climbing out of its deep growth hole in March. In this chartbook, the Dragonomics team outlines the shape of the recovery, explains which sectors are leading and which are lagging, and breaks down the policy response and implications for markets.

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    Webinar: Markets Outlook For The World And China

    In Thursday’s webinar, Thomas Gatley explained why China’s corporate sector is weathering the country’s downturn with relative ease and Louis Gave offered a global strategy view for investing in a Post Covid-19 world.

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    East Africa’s Chinese Gamble

    China’s deep economic roots in Africa provoke alarm in the US and concern among debtor nations, especially as some costly infrastructure projects prove financially unviable. But our latest in-depth DeepChina report explains why China’s presence is generally welcome in East Africa, even as the era of huge loans and megaprojects draws to an end.

    7
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    Choosing Currency Stability

    In the global crises of 1998 and 2008, China chose currency stability over competitive devaluation—and in the coronavirus crisis of 2020 it is making the same choice. In this piece, Wei argues that preventing capital outflows outweighs the PBOC’s other priorities for now, even if this means having to accept a less competitive currency.

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    A Poor Prognosis For US-China Ties

    The Covid-19 pandemic has been bad for the health of the US-China relationship, which was already in poor shape. In this piece, Arthur explains how US security hawks have seized the opportunity to hammer home the argument that China is untrustworthy, pushing the US debate over China policy in a more confrontational direction.

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    Webinar: The Outlook For China And Emerging Markets

    Arthur Kroeber spoke on the macro situation in China. Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented their work on consumer sentiment and activity in China. Udith Sikand gave a rundown of what's happening in emerging markets.

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    Reshuffling Global Supply Chains

    Globally distributed production has already become less attractive since the 2008 crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic will intensify the trend for global manufacturing to reduce its dependence on China. Dan argues this will encourage supply chains to become more robust, more decentralized and, ironically, more truly global.

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    A New Stage In The Monetary Cycle

    While the People’s Bank of China remains more conservative than other global central banks, it is now clearly signaling to the market that liquidity will remain loose for the foreseeable future. This means low interest rates and, according to Wei, favorable conditions for a Chinese government bond rally.

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    Webinar: Looking Through The Lockdowns

    Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.

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    The Job Market Shock Continues

    The lockdown to control Covid-19 has already cost millions of China’s migrant workers a month or more of lost wages. But the shock to employment is not over: many service businesses are not back to normal, and manufacturers face plunging export orders. In this piece, Ernan analyzes the multiple pressures on China’s job market in 2020.

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    Getting Out Of Lockdown

    China is starting to get out of its strict Covid-19 lockdown, but its economy will not get fully back to normal until the outbreaks in other countries also get under control. In this piece, Andrew and the team dig into the data to piece together the economy’s trajectory for March and April: a narrowing decline rather than a fast rebound.

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    Chinese Equities As A Safe Haven

    Chinese equities are likely to outperform in the short term as the global outbreak worsens and China adds more detail to its latest set of stimulus measures announced on Friday. However, once the outbreak shows signs of peaking in the US and Europe, Thomas argues that China is expected to return to its status as a relative underperformer.

    0
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    Webinar: China's Recovery From Covid-19 Lockdown

    At Wednesday's webinar, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley and Wei He discussed how China is recovering from the lockdown imposed to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, and the outlook for the economy.

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    The Coming Collapse Of Exports

    As other economies shut down to contain their outbreaks, China’s hopes of a V-shaped growth rebound are evaporating. Thomas explains how the ensuing collapse in Chinese exports could result in a 4-8pp drop in GDP growth for Q2, offsetting any domestic recovery and pressuring policymakers to ramp up economic assistance.

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    The Great Fiscal Role Reversal

    In the global financial crisis of 2008, China defied economic orthodoxy with its huge debt-financed stimulus. In the coronavirus crisis of 2020, by contrast, it is the US, UK and other Western countries that are throwing the fiscal rulebook out the window. In this piece, Andrew explains what’s behind this surprising role reversal.

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    Rural Banks On The Brink

    The economic stress of the Covid-19 outbreak is all but certain to cause a rise in nonperforming loans. Even before the outbreak, China’s rural commercial banks—its smallest and most troubled lenders—were already short of capital and performing poorly. As Xiaoxi shows in this piece, another jump in bad loans will push more of them into distress.

    0
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    Webinar: Covid-19, Markets And The Economy

    At Thursday’s webinar, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Andrew Batson discussed the Covid-19 outbreak and the consequences for financial markets and the economy.

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    Local Governments Will Lead On Property

    Even as China’s property market has experienced an unprecedented decline, central government policymakers have kept a tight leash on official support. However, given growing signs of a lasting disruption to the sector, Rosealea believes that Beijing will tolerate more ambitious municipal efforts to keep local markets afloat.

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    Deposit Rates Are Back On The Agenda

    The People’s Bank of China has failed to join other central banks in the recent wave of rate cuts. But with the coronavirus now threatening a substantial hit to global demand, the PBOC is going to need to do more. In this piece, Wei argues that a cut in the benchmark deposit rate—a tool that has not been used in four years—is on the way soon.

    0
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    Terrible But True

    Given the extent of China’s coronavirus lockdown, it’s not surprising to see double-digit declines in economic indicators. The real surprise is that the statistics bureau did not fudge the data, as analysts expected it would, and printed numbers bad enough to be plausible. This suggests authorities will be pragmatic about the growth impact for 2020.

    1
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    From The Supply Side To The Demand Side

    As China gets back to work, the biggest problem facing the economy is no longer restrictions imposed on the supply side, but the near-certain prospect of a major shock in global demand. Andrew argues that this shift will cajole Chinese policymakers, who have so far kept a conservative approach, into stepping up their growth support measures.

    0
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    Despite Shortages, Inflation Will Cool

    China’s consumer-price inflation is now around an eight-year high, driven primarily by continued pork shortages due to the African swine fever and exacerbated by the Covid-19 lockdown measures. That said, headline inflation figures are ticking down, a trend Ernan expects to continue in the coming months with an assist from lower oil prices.

    0
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    Tech War, Meet Trade Deal

    Plans enacted by US national security hawks to toughen sanctions on Huawei and other Chinese tech firms have run into stiff resistance from both American tech firms and President Trump himself. Dan reports that, amidst this stalemate, both factions are mobilizing for a protracted fight over the fate of restrictions on exports to China.

    0
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    Limited Help For Struggling SMEs

    Chinese policymakers have announced a wide range of monetary and fiscal measures intended to help the smaller firms hit hardest by the Covid-19 outbreak. The helpfulness of these measures will likely only be marginal; however, Thomas, Xiaoxi and Wei are cautiously optimistic that most SMEs can still weather the ongoing crisis.

    0
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    Getting Serious About Biosecurity

    China’s government is rethinking its approach to biosecurity in order to reduce the odds of future outbreaks of infectious disease. In this piece, Lance explains what treating biosecurity as a part of national security will mean for regulation, public health and the biotechnology sector.

    1
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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2020

    In Thursday’s conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Andrew Batson and Cedric Gemehl discussed the policy and market reactions to the Covid-19 outbreak.

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