E.g., 19-01-2022
E.g., 19-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    The Least Bad Energy Policy?

    Today, policymakers in western countries and China are facing similar problems, including growing disparities in wealth between those who own assets and those who do not, and worsening energy shortages. So will policymakers in western countries, and especially in Europe, who are facing similar shortages follow China and impose energy rationing?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Coming UK Recession

    Thursday saw UK GDP growth for 2Q21 revised up to a perky 5.5% from a previous 4.8%. Yet all is not well in shortage-plagued Britain. While other economies facesupply chain disruption and energy shortages, the “just in time” UK economy looks to be facing a perfect inflationary storm that could deliver a recession in 2022.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Having It Both Ways In Emerging Markets

    The question for emerging market policymakers is: do they follow the Federal Reserve and tighten monetary policy in anticipation of "taper tantrum II"? Or do they, instead, try and stimulate their weakened economies by keeping money cheap and hope this does not prompt a disorderly exit of capital?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese Power Problem

    The power shortages rippling across China threaten to weigh on economic growth that was already slowing more than previously expected. Manufacturing firms in provinces from Ningxia to Henan are being told they can only have limited electricity supply, and many are having to cut production in response. This combination of supply- and demand-side problems is clearly negative for growth, but if the current sharp slowdown in heavy industry continues...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Avoiding Sequels

    Like many other parents, Louis has seen his share of kids' movie sequels, which unfortunately fall much too short of the of the first installment. This reminds him of two “curve-balls” that investors are now having to digest. The first is the China Evergrande debt debacle. The second is the looming shortage of energy across most of the industrialized world.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Q&A: China’s Investibility

    In the last few weeks, as China Evergrande’s financial troubles have deepened, Louis and Gavekal’s China team have fielded a spate of questions from clients about China’s investibility. In this paper, Louis offers a distillation of these conversations, presented in a question-and-answer format.

    16
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    Gavekal Research

    The German Interregnum

    Germany is headed for a three-party coalition for the first time since Konrad Adenauer’s governments of the 1950s. Multiple options remain on the table but a center-left figure should eventually be sworn in as chancellor. The issue is that material differences over fiscal policy mean that coalition talks could drag out well into 2022. How these divisive issues are bridged will determine the way that Germany and Europe react to growing economic...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Divergence In Central Banking

    A material difference has opened up in both the actions and signaling of global central banks, as they exit from pandemic-era monetary policy settings. On the hawkish side is the likes of the Federal Reserve and on the dovish side the European Central Bank and a raft of Asian policymakers. The question is who could be on the verge of making a policy mistake.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Times They Are A-Changin’

    Despite widespread fears that the troubles of property giant Evergrande will cause China's "Lehman moment", the renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar has barely blinked, while Chinese government bonds continue their strong outperformance. Louis examines the facts and outlines the likely consequences that matter for investors.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    After The German Election

    The results of this Sunday’s German federal election are unlikely to generate any shocks when markets reopen on Monday. Nonetheless, the precise colors of the coalition that eventually emerges will matter a great deal to investors. Cedric reviews the possible coalition compositions and outlines what they will mean for fiscal policy, European integration and China.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: European Course Correction, Or Steady On Ahead?

    Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Volatility In A Changed Economy

    It’s been a chastening, if not decisive, month for investors in US equities. The S&P 500 index has recovered ground, but still endured a -4% fall from its September 2 peak. On a historic basis, the drawdown was small but we have not seen many of them in the last 18 months. Bulls hope that having weathered worries about China and the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase taper, the ground has been set for US equities to hit new highs. My aim today...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Liquidity And Shortages

    It is possible the US equity market was simply confused on Wednesday, when it rallied after the Federal Open Markets Committee unfurled its communiqué. Or perhaps it was just oversold. Either way, the Federal Reserve revealed itself to be as hawkish as could have been expected. Asset purchases will be tapered “soon” and likely occur at a faster pace than last time around. Interest rates could be hiked next year and the Treasury will soon become...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Asia’s Diverging Covid Strategies

    Asian economies are often lumped into the collective bucket of following “zero-Covid” elimination strategies. That has certainly been the case in most of the region’s big economies. However, there is increasingly an impetus by the better-vaccinated countries to fully reopen. Vincent surveys the landscape and draws some conclusions regarding preferred currency plays.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: The Evergrande Crisis

    Markets have reacted violently to China Evergrande Group starting to default on US$300bn of obligations. The worry is that a disorderly failure causes a systemic crisis that dents Chinese growth and upends other emerging markets. Our team of analysts think such a chaotic denouement is unlikely and a managed solution remains the most likely outcome. In this webinar, they explain their thinking.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Anglosphere Doubles Down

    The “Aukus” security partnership sparked a diplomatic explosion when it was unveiled by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States last week. As the smoke clears, America’s strategy to counter China is becoming clear. But the diplomatic fallout from Aukus also reflects a new reality. How does Europe fit into this brave new world, and how will China respond?

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Evergrande’s International Risks

    The troubles of debt-laden Chinese property developer Evergrande are no Lehman moment, but they do pose a significant risk of international contagion across emerging markets, which investors would be rash to ignore.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Investing In Today’s Inflationary Environment

    Investing in a topsy-turvy macro environment can feel like a crapshoot. One way to seek order among chaos is to draw lessons from economic history. Louis examines the underlying causes of financial crises since the late 1990s and applies the lessons to consider the way in which the global economy and markets emerge from the pandemic.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    No Escape From The Evergrande Effect

    Fears about the potential systemic risks posed by troubled property developer Evergrande reverberated through global financial markets on Monday. Unless China’s regulators seriously mismanage the situation, a systemic crisis in the country’s financial sector is not on the cards. Nevertheless, lenders will not be able to escape the costs.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Out Of The Congressional Quagmire

    Eight months after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the US president’s economic agenda remains bogged down, with two flagship spending bills stuck in Congress amid infighting among Biden’s fellow Democrats. In the coming weeks, however, there is a good chance of a compromise that will see one of the two cleared through the House of Representatives.

    0
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