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E.g., 19-02-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    The Threat To US Equities

    On Friday the US equity market succumbed to coronavirus jitters, with the S&P 500 sliding -1.77% to wipe out its year-to-date gains for January. The sell-off was accompanied by a surge in the VIX volatility index, which could continue to rise. Happily, however, there are five good reasons to think any such elevated volatility will prove short-lived.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Wuhan Virus And Emerging Markets

    The rapid spread of the Wuhan coronavirus has spooked investors and triggered steep sell-offs in Chinese and Asian markets. But there are good reasons to hope the spread of the disease will be contained in the coming weeks, at which point Chinese and regional equities can recover.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Britain’s Soggy Prospects

    Despite a worsening coronavirus situation and worries that a Brexit bounce could be short-lived, the Bank of England defied the expectations of many by not cutting interest rates. The UK’s weak medium term growth outlook and difficult impending trade talks with the EU means that policy will remain dovish and sterling’s upside prospects are likely capped.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Don't Fret About The Fed's Balance Sheet

    As if investors didn’t have enough to worry about just now, many have been spooked by this month’s dip in the size of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Happily the Fed is one thing investors don’t need to fret about. The Fed’s statement and press conference on Wednesday confirmed that US monetary policy remains clear and predictable—and accommodative.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Ten Long Term Risks For The New Decade

    Two weeks ago, Anatole looked at the risks that could derail markets in 2020. This week he puts on his long term forecasting cap, and examines the big risks that could play out over the next 10 years. The good news? While there are some risks investors do need to worry about, there are other concerns they can dismiss entirely.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Utility Of A ‘Jeep’ Portfolio

    Back in December 2017 I published a warning for portfolio managers. Sometimes it makes sense to have a turbocharged portfolio, at others investors should seek out something more suited to rough going. Two years on, and with market volatility again on the up, this seems a good time to review how my Jeep portfolio has fared over the last two years.

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    Gavekal Research

    It’s Not The Disease, It’s The Treatment

    The economic costs of the Wuhan virus are not simply a function of how deadly it is, but of the measures China’s government takes to contain it—which have rapidly escalated to an unprecedented severity. The shutdown of normal travel and business now in place across much of China is certain to deliver a hit to growth in the first quarter of 2020.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Cardiac Arrest In India’s Body Economic

    Bad debts are clogging the arteries of India’s financial system. Two policy developments at the end of 2019 raised hope of recovery. A Supreme Court judgment set a precedent for resolving bankruptcies more quickly. And the insolvency code was extended to cover non-bank financial companies. However, the reality is that India’s financial system could worsen before it gets better, especially if the government goes ahead with a mooted finance bill.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Fourth Horseman?

    It is unlikely Xi Jinping has spent much time studying Christian eschatology. But if he has, the Chinese president might be forgiven for thinking that after (trade) war, conquest (in Hong Kong) and famine (African swine fever), he now has to deal with the fourth horseman of the Apocalypse: Death (in the unwelcome shape of the Wuhan coronavirus).

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Playing The ECB Strategic Review

    When a government agency announces a “strategic review”, the presumption is that some knotty issue is being kicked into the long grass. That was the vibe yesterday when Christine Lagarde kicked off the European Central Bank’s year-long navel gazing exercise. In this case, however, investors would do well not to check out entirely from ECB watching.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: On Target In China?

    In 2015 the Chinese government set out its 13th five-year plan, with economic and social targets that it aimed to hit by the end of 2020. The five-year plans are important because the government derives legitimacy from improving people’s livelihoods. The Dragonomics team has examined seven such targets and their impact on the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy Gets Interesting Again

    After almost five months of calm, there is a quickening in Italian politics. Luigi Di Maio yesterday stepped down as head of the governing Five Star movement as it faces the prospect of a drubbing in a regional election this weekend. The man most likely to capitalize on his troubles is Matteo Salvini, whose Lega Party is the most popular in Italy, polling 30-35%. The result may be more volatility in Italian assets, but a return to crisis...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    How Sturdy Are The Zeitgeist's Five Pillars?

    The investment zeitgeist can be thought of as a set of assumptions that investors hold about structural growth drivers, key prices and policy approaches. An investment manager should understand what makes up the zeitgeist and how it is changing. Louis outlines five foundational pillars that he considers integral to the current situation.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Lessons From Last Time Around

    Beijing shops have sold out of high-spec surgical masks, scared customers are stockpiling medicines, and financial markets are looking shaky. The parallels between the current coronavirus outbreak and the 2003 epidemic of Sars are obvious. But there are also important differences, especially in the backdrop against which today’s outbreak is occurring.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Oil Again

    Less than two weeks after the price of oil briefly spiked to a four-month high on fears of a war between the US and Iran, crude has again been looking bid on trouble in the Middle East. This time, the bulk of Libyan shipments have been cut off amid the country’s civil war, while in Iraq anti-government protests have reportedly caused two minor fields to curtail production.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Dark Side Of A Strong US Economy

    The US’s growth outlook has been bolstered by easy financial conditions and trade deals being reached with China and its near neighbors. Yet, those prospects are also hampered by a tight labor market that threatens corporate profits. What recent data releases highlight is both the enduring strength of the US economy and niggling late-cycle factors that could yet undo it.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: US Autos Ride Again

    A range of cyclical and structural factors have conspired to hit US auto sales in recent years. But with the US labor market remaining in rude health and US monetary policy being loosened, that may be about to change. The impact could be positive for US growth and for risk assets, argues KX in this interview.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Chickens Coming Home To Roost

    French workers last weekend won a reprieve from the government’s plan to nudge the retirement age higher, but that does not mean they can breathe easy, thinking their financial futures are secured. With much of pension assets invested in government bonds, an interesting question is what the return will be of a 10-year constant duration OAT in the next decade.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Post-Election Upside For Taiwan

    Contrary to investor fears, the victory of Chinaskeptic Tsai Ing-wen in last weekend’s Taiwanese presidential election is unlikely to lead to a marked further deterioration of cross-straits relations between Taipei and Beijing. With that risk off the table, explains Vincent, the coast is clear for an improving electronics cycle to support the local stock market.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Tough Ask On Trade, Trouble Brewing On Tech

    The story we’ve been telling for the past few months is that the conclusion of the US-China trade deal will reduce global macro risk in 2020, but tech-specific risk will still be an issue because of continued efforts by the US to constrain the rise of China’s technology sector and in particular Huawei. This week’s news buttressed that story: the trade deal was signed; but at the same time several US agencies are on the verge of tightening...

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