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E.g., 26-02-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Fate Of A Liquidity-Driven Rally

    The writing is on the wall for China’s post-Covid bull market as the underlying credit and profit cycles that typically drive prices over the medium term are turning down in 2021. In this report, Thomas explains why liquidity flows can trump these fundamentals for a while, but not indefinitely.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    To Hold Back The Tide Of De-Industrialization

    China’s government is focusing on a new economic metric: the manufacturing share of GDP, which looks to feature in the next five-year plan. Rather than accept de-industrialization, it wants “stability” in manufacturing. In this piece, Andrew explains why China is worried about the fall in the manufacturing share, and whether it can be stopped.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Stuck At Home For The Holidays

    China spent the Lunar New Year indoors and online. Travel over the seven days of the holiday declined 77% from 2019 levels, but sales of major retailers increased by 4.9%. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains how holiday restrictions and the January Covid outbreak in north-eastern China has depressed services and boosted retail sales.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Steps On Hidden Local Debt

    In 2021, China’s central government is gearing up to once again tackle the hidden debts of local authorities, toughening its stance after a couple of lax years. As Wei explains in this piece, the solution is likely to be a mixed one, combining limits on new borrowing, partial bailouts of some debt, and a lot of kicking the can down the road.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Propping Up Property Sales

    Housing sales growth is holding up well despite financial tightening and hawkish policymaker rhetoric. In this report, Rosealea explains why regulators are pressuring developers to cut prices, while increased household savings means more families can take advantage of these discounts. 2021 will therefore likely be a strong year for housing sales.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Profit Cycle Has Peaked

    China’s corporate profits rebounded in 2H20 after a horrific start to the year, but the profit cycle is now close to its peak. Looking past huge base effects, Thomas believes underlying growth will fade toward 10% in the first half of this year and zero in the second—not a bad macro outcome, but slower profits usually weigh on equity markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Falling Behind On Vaccination

    Despite its early successes in containing Covid-19, China is lagging Western countries in rolling out a mass vaccination program. In this report, Ernan explains why Chinese policymakers are not treating mass vaccination as an urgent issue and why a slow vaccine rollout could result in a drag on economic growth in late 2021.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Crackdown On Fintech

    Finance has been an exciting new frontier for China’s internet companies, as lax regulation and technological changes enabled a few years of rapid growth. This frontier era for fintech is now over. As Xiaoxi explains in this piece, China’s financial regulators are set on controlling what they now view as the overly risky growth of the sector.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Explaining The Interbank Spike

    Short-term interbank rates surged to their highest levels in more than two years on Thursday after a surprising move by the central bank to drain liquidity from the market. In this Quick Take, Wei explains why this liquidity tightening does not signal a change in monetary policy, and why rates should return to normal over the coming weeks.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: The Outlook For China In 2021

    China enters 2021 having achieved a world-leading recovery, but now faces a tricky balancing act to secure its economic trajectory. Ernan Cui, Rosealea Yao and Wei He discussed how the authorities are responding to the latest rebound in Covid cases, what their strategy is for dealing with a frothy property market, and how they will balance growth with financial stability.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Sinification Of The Hong Kong Market

    Even though the Hang Seng index fell -2.55% on Tuesday, Hong Kong is still the world’s best performing major stock market year-to-date. In Hong Kong’s media the run-up is attributed to waves of mainland Chinese money flowing into the city’s equities. In reality, Connect flows have not been the biggest force driving Hong Kong stocks higher in recent weeks. But structurally, flows of mainland capital are only going to become increasingly important...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Beyond The Boom

    China’s unbalanced, industry-driven recovery from Covid has been very strong but is probably close to its peak. Meanwhile, renewed outbreaks are further delaying the normalization of consumer spending and services. In the latest edition of our regular chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains how these tensions will affect the economy in 2021.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Restraining The New Fad In Tech

    The Chinese government has responded quickly and negatively to community group buying platforms, the latest business-model fad among China’s consumer internet companies. In this report, Ernan explains why subsidized pricing on the platforms has drawn regulatory attention and how this will affect future growth prospects for China’s big tech firms.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Good And Bad News For Emerging Markets

    US president Joe Biden’s planned US$1.9trn fiscal support package for the American economy may provide a metaphorical shot in the arm for at least some emerging markets, partially offsetting the negative economic effects caused by the delayed rollout of actual coronavirus inoculations. Udith assesses the conflicting forces affecting emerging economies.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Small Borrowers Still Struggling

    Even after a dramatic economic recovery, many of China’s smallest businesses are still struggling. In this piece, Xiaoxi shows how the government’s financial-support measures did little to improve small businesses’ access to financing, which is already tightening. But the policies are helping banks avoid a potential spike in bad loans.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Two-Speed Recovery

    China’s Q4 GDP growth surpassed pre-Covid rates, with housing and manufacturing leading while services lagged and infrastructure investment slowed. In early 2021, this divergence is likely to continue as consumers stay home for the Chinese New Year and poor credit growth drags on infrastructure investment.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: China's Post-Pandemic Roadmap

    A year after Covid-19 was first revealed in China, the country has emerged as one of the key economic winners of the global pandemic. In this video interview, Arthur assesses how it did this and looks at the new priorities for Chinese industrial development in a world that has become less open and more suspicious of Chinese intentions. He seeks to answer these questions with reference to US trade and technology policy toward China as a new...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    For Exports, It’s Stronger For Longer

    China’s exports have been boosted by two side effects of the Covid-19 pandemic: a shift of consumer spending to goods from services, and the failure of manufacturing in other countries to get back to full capacity. How long can those advantages last? Thomas argues they will continue to boost exports through the first half of 2021.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    New Ceilings For Property Financing

    China’s policymakers are expanding their restrictions on bank financing of the property sector, imposing limits on mortgage lending in addition to curbs on borrowing by developers. In this report, Rosealea explains why the new regulations do not shift her expectations of flat property sales and a modest decline in construction activity in 2021.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Covid Headaches Continue

    China diagnosed 527 new cases of Covid-19 in the first 10 days of 2021, mostly in Hebei province, in the biggest local outbreak since July 2020. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains why this outbreak is challenging China’s Covid-19 playbook and why its timing is particularly concerning ahead of the Chinese New Year.

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