E.g., 19-10-2021
E.g., 19-10-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Steady Slowdown

    Chinese economic growth continued to slow in 3Q21 thanks to ongoing supply constraints and demand weakness. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team explains that while China’s poor September figures reflect supply-side constraints, of greater concern is the weakening demand side due to a deepening property downturn.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China’s Policy Trajectory

    China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. This has resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no overt U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely, but addressed possible regulatory softening moves.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Winter For Small Business

    China’s small businesses are having a rough 2021: business conditions have stagnated or deteriorated since the recovery in late 2020. There’s been much debate on the causes of their struggles, but the biggest culprits are the ripple effects from the government’s zero-tolerance Covid policy and its tightening of credit and real-estate policies.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Sun King

    As the US and Europe pursue more serious green agendas, they are wondering if they can wrest back production of solar power from China. The answer: probably not. China is not just the low-cost producer, but also the technological leader. In this piece, Dan explains why the global deployment of solar energy will depend heavily on China.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What's Next For Internet Platforms?

    With the results in for China’s antitrust investigation of food-delivery giant Meituan, Ernan writes that the direction of China’s antitrust policy is now becoming increasingly evident, with clear guidance from regulators reducing uncertainty. However, platform profits should continue dwindling as their business models are chipped at by regulators.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — September 2021

    In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2021

    China’s post-Covid property boom has unwound more rapidly than expected this year as the government’s tough policies drive developers into distress. In her annual chartbook, Rosealea explains the outlook for the rest of 2021 and 2022. Further declines in housing sales and construction will come, but policy adjustments can limit their magnitude.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Crabwise ‘Recoupling’

    The Biden administration continues its crabwise efforts to craft a China strategy balancing national security and economic interests. The challenge is that Biden wants to maintain the basic stance established by Donald Trump—“strategic competition”—while satisfying a wider range of interest groups and setting more realistic policy targets.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Macro Risks Of Xi Jinping’s Agenda

    China’s leaders sought to use the country’s post-Covid boom to press ahead with reforms aimed at furthering Xi Jinping’s political goals. The resulting property slowdown, China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the flight out of internet stocks have hit both economic growth and financial markets. Despite this, no overt U-turn is likely.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese Power Problem

    The power shortages rippling across China threaten to weigh on economic growth that was already slowing more than previously expected. Manufacturing firms in provinces from Ningxia to Henan are being told they can only have limited electricity supply, and many are having to cut production in response. This combination of supply- and demand-side problems is clearly negative for growth, but if the current sharp slowdown in heavy industry continues...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Cauterizing Evergrande

    Chinese property developer Evergrande announced that it will sell a portion of its minority stake in Shenjing Bank to a local state-owned enterprise in Liaoning province. In this Quick Take, Xiaoxi explains that while the deal wont save the firm, it exemplifies how local officials can work to soften the impact of Evergrande’s unwinding.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Developers Need Loans

    How much financial stress can China’s developers take? Thanks to strict financial regulation and slowing sales, every channel of financing for developers is now tightening simultaneously. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how this puts pressure on policymakers to ease those financing restrictions, and why bank lending is the most likely beneficiary.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Completing The Bond Connection

    The southbound channel of the Bond Connect program linking mainland China and Hong Kong debt markets started trading on Friday. In this Quick Take, Wei explains that although outflows are unlikely to be large in the early stages, the program should eventually carry major flows and help grow Hong Kong’s offshore bond market.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Don’t Call It A Tech Crackdown

    China’s regulatory onslaught against companies like Ant Group, Didi Chuxing and Tencent has been widely referred to as a “tech crackdown.” In this piece, Dan argues that the government’s actions are less a sign that it has turned against tech than they are a rejection of the idea that the consumer internet is the peak of technological achievement.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: The Evergrande Crisis

    Markets have reacted violently to China Evergrande Group starting to default on US$300bn of obligations. The worry is that a disorderly failure causes a systemic crisis that dents Chinese growth and upends other emerging markets. Our team of analysts think such a chaotic denouement is unlikely and a managed solution remains the most likely outcome. In this webinar, they explain their thinking.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Reversal In Iron Ore

    Over the past two months, iron ore prices have tumbled as China’s property market slows and local authorities expand restrictions on steel output. In this report, Rosealea explains why falling steel demand should cause prices to continue their decline, eventually settling at around levels of US$70-80/ton.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    No Escape From The Evergrande Effect

    Fears about the potential systemic risks posed by troubled property developer Evergrande reverberated through global financial markets on Monday. Unless China’s regulators seriously mismanage the situation, a systemic crisis in the country’s financial sector is not on the cards. Nevertheless, lenders will not be able to escape the costs.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Profits From Payments

    Online payments were one of the first and most prominent victims of China’s regulatory onslaught against internet platforms. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how a combination of both tighter oversight and the pending launch of the digital renminbi is limiting platforms’ ability to monetize their payments businesses.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Window Is Closing For Structural Reform

    China’s dismal August economic figures suggest that the “window of opportunity” identified by the Politburo in April, when officials hoped to take advantage of China’s post-Covid rebound to focus on longer-term structural priorities, is now closing. However, it is still too early to expect policymakers to shift gears into a supportive stance.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Internet Platforms Versus Policy Darlings

    China’s offshore internet platform stocks saw fresh falls in Asia on Monday morning after reports that the Chinese authorities will break up Ant Group’s Alipay business. In recent weeks, some investors have been advocating a rotation to “safer” segments of China’s tech sector, such as hardware companies favored by policymakers. But Thomas writes, these carry risks of their own.

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