E.g., 05-08-2021
E.g., 05-08-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Kids Off Screens

    Digital gaming stocks tumbled yesterday after an editorial published in state media criticized the social consequences of video games. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains how regulators are tackling the perceived social ills of China’s youth, and why the dramatic market reaction underscores how sensitive investors have become to official guidance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Capital Markets Balancing Act

    The pace of financial decoupling between the US and China has quickened, with regulators in both countries tightening requirements for Chinese firms seeking to list in US markets. With the SEC likely to push ahead with the delisting of Chinese firms, Thomas writes that Chinese companies will rely on Hong Kong to access global capital.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    When Will The Regulatory Rout End?

    Investors in China’s offshore-listed stocks have suffered multiple regulatory shocks. But with both onshore and Hong Kong equities now suffering, the crackdown is hitting domestic investors. Thomas explains why this will likely change the calculus for China’s policymakers, and why regulators are now likely to adopt a more constructive tone.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Evergrande Drama Plays Out

    Investor confidence in Evergrande Group, China’s second-largest property developer, has been pummeled in recent weeks. While Evergrande has managed to put out the latest round of fires, and a collapse is unlikely, Rosealea argues in this piece that market volatility for developers will probably continue as financial regulators keep on squeezing.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The WMP Countdown

    The clock is ticking for China’s banks to restructure the wealth-management products they have long used to evade financial regulations. Progress has been slow, but regulators have signaled they will not extend the end-2021 deadline again. However, as Xiaoxi argues in this piece, regulators will end up having to grant banks plenty of exceptions.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Class Is Over For Tutoring Firms

    Policymakers launched a massive crackdown against Chinese education companies over the weekend that will likely mean the end of these companies as they are currently structured. In doing so, Ernan writes that China has signaled it is not afraid to simply shut down a large and profitable industry in order to achieve its social and political goals.

    14
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Easing Into The Slowdown

    China's post-Covid boom peaked in H1 and the beginnings of a slowdown are now obvious. Although growth momentum is still quite solid, policymakers have moved pre-emptively to start a monetary easing cycle. In the latest edition of our regular chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains the outlook for the economy and markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The State Of Global Growth

    The reflation trade has ebbed in recent weeks as investors have gotten more comfortable with the trajectory of US monetary policy and concerns have risen over the Delta variant of Covid disrupting economic opening. At the same time, China continues to crack down on its high-growth internet sector. Our team assessed the market implications of these trends.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The PBOC’s Pre-Emptive Strike

    China’s surprising decision this month to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratios has upended the consensus on its policy trajectory and sown confusion in the market. In this piece, Wei explains the move was neither a panicked attempt to jump-start growth, nor a minor technical adjustment, but a pre-emptive start to a different kind of easing cycle.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Carbon Market's Slow Start

    China launched the world’s biggest carbon market last week to great fanfare. Unfortunately, Rosealea writes that it will not do much to slow China’s CO2 emissions growth, at least not initially. While the market's impact will be small at first, its architecture can be gradually strengthened to achieve more ambitious goals.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: What's Behind China's Internet Crackdown?

    China's authorities have aggressively tightened regulation of the formerly free-wheeling internet sector. In this webinar, Gavekal RedTech principal Michael Clendenin joined Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui and Thomas Gatley to analyze the government's motives in the ever-widening crackdown, forecast the next regulatory moves and explain how investors can navigate the risks.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Manageable Decline

    Chinese economic data for June showed cyclical sectors beginning to decline from a strong peak, while consumption growth is still struggling to regain pre-Covid levels. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team explains why China seems on track for a manageable decline in H2.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Data Security Is National Security

    With the dramatic punishment of ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing immediately after its IPO, China’s government has opened a new front in its regulatory crackdown on internet companies: data security. In this piece, Ernan explains why regulators are escalating and what these new concerns mean for Chinese internet platforms.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making The Implicit Guarantee Explicit

    To keep access to bond markets amid rising defaults, many of China’s financially stressed local governments are offering stronger support for their companies’ debts—making the implicit guarantee more explicit. This won’t stop all local government financing vehicles from defaulting, but it means the defaults may come from less obvious places.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Conflicting Pressures In The Second Half

    China is entering the second half of 2021 with its strong post-Covid economic momentum still intact, despite policymakers staying consistently hawkish on debt and property. In this webinar Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley outlined how these conflicting pressures will play out over the rest of the year, and discussed the potential for an easing of the policy stance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Surprise Easing Signal

    China’s State Council issued a statement calling for “using monetary policy tools, including cuts in the reserve requirement ratio” to reduce financing costs for enterprises. In this Quick Take, Wei explains why policymakers are trying to lower corporate borrowing costs without pushing down interbank rates.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Go At The Property Tax

    After two years of silence, the Chinese government has signaled it is making a new effort to implement a residential property tax by expanding local trials. In this report, Rosealea explains why, against a better economic backdrop and with less organized opposition, the property tax is likely to stick this time around.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Impact Of Didi’s Smackdown

    Just two days after raising US$4.4bn from US investors, China’s largest ride-hailing platform, Didi Chuxing, has been placed under investigation by Chinese authorities and told to stop registering new users due to alleged violations in the handling of users’ data. Ernan and Thomas assess what this signals for the uncoupling of US and Chinese equity capital markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

    The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Disciplining Deposit Rates

    China is changing the way bank deposit rate ceilings are calculated, the first such change in five years. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how the change, which will flatten bank deposit yield curves, has some of the same effects as a deposit rate cut: it will reduce cost pressures on banks and widen their margins, although not dramatically.

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