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E.g., 15-09-2019
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Putting The Squeeze On Tech

    The Trump administration has shown the world that it is willing and able to inflict severe pain on China’s top technology firms. But can the US really squeeze China hard enough to cut it off from global R&D, or stop all advances by Chinese companies? In this piece, Dan argues that the US can slow China’s technological progress—but not stop it.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Stage Of The Pork Crisis

    The African swine fever crisis in China is reaching a new stage as prices for pigs and pork spiral upward at an unprecedented pace. The government is responding with a combination of subsidies for pork farms, as well as rationing and price caps. But this is a short-term strategy that will not contain the ASF epidemic and could even worsen it.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing's Conflicted Easing

    As prospects for a quick resolution of the US-China trade conflict fade, and the data continue to soften, expectations for Chinese growth are getting marked down. As if on cue, the government has sent signals of more decisive policy support for growth. While encouraging, this does not presage a shift in China's macro policy of "selective" easing.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Taiwan’s Manufacturers Rethink Reliance On China

    Could Taiwan be a winner in the US-China trade war? As Dan reports in this piece, US tariffs have succeeded in getting major contract manufacturers of electronics to shift jobs out of China, some of which are going to Taiwan. But this trend is not enough to end Taiwan’s dependence on Chinese growth, or its vulnerability to Chinese competition.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dimensions Of Decoupling

    Whatever happens next in the US-China trade conflict, it’s clear that ties between the two nations have undergone a fundamental reset. Some “decoupling” will definitely occur as a result, and indeed has already begun. In this chartbook, Andrew and Lance explore how US-China decoupling could play out in flows of goods, money, people and ideas.

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Toughs It Out

    After a month of further escalation in the US-China trade war, China’s strategy for the next stage of the dispute is becoming clear. Its leadership now looks committed to a strategy of toughing out trade tensions. This means the prospect of a US-China trade deal is receding, and therefore that global growth will face further headwinds.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Consumer Spending Growth Grinds Lower

    With exports and domestic investment both weakening, China’s government hopes that consumer spending will support growth. The bad news is that all indicators of consumer spending are still softening. With a deteriorating job market weighing on household income Chinese consumer spending is set to weaken further over the coming quarters.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Starvation Rations For Private-Sector Borrowers

    After a brief respite earlier in the year, China’s private sector is once again facing a credit squeeze. The PBOC’s announcement over the weekend of a change in the calculation methodology for the loan prime rate is likely to lower the cost of corporate loans, but it does not make it any easier for private firms to get finance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Slowdown Continues

    After a end-of-quarter bounce in June, China’s economy resumed its gradual downward course in July, with industrial production, fixed investment, housing starts, retail sales and credit growth all slowing. The bright spots were exports, which registered a surprising pickup despite the trade war, and housing sales, which reversed three months of declines with a modest gain.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Rising Risks For Chinese Firms

    The outcome of US-China trade talks is uncertain, but one thing is clear. Chinese companies, their customers and suppliers, faced increased risks of US American sanctions. Hardliners in the US national security establishment are pressing ahead with an “all-of-government” strategy to constrain China’s technological and financial clout. This will continue regardless of the outcome of trade talks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Renminbi, Manipulation And The Trade War

    Monday’s actions on the Chinese currency—Beijing’s decision to let the renminbi’s exchange rate weaken past CNY7.00 to the US dollar, and Washington’s decision to label China a currency manipulator—signal that the US and China are close to throwing in the towel on a trade deal. Trade war escalation should now be the base case.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Risks To Steel Prices

    China’s government is once again going after pollution from the steel industry, raising the risk of more policy-induced spikes in steel prices. While forced shutdowns to ensure blue skies are on the way, Rosealea argues that the bigger risk to steel prices is on the downside, due to weakening construction activity and cautious housing policy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Read My Lips: No Housing Stimulus

    The world’s major economies are seemingly united on the need for a fresh round of stimulus—except for China. And hopes for a more aggressive approach were dashed by the latest Politburo meeting, which declared that China would not boost the housing market to revive growth. In this piece, Andrew explains what’s behind China’s policy stance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Trade War To Decoupling

    Trade talks between the US and China will resume this week after a three-month hiatus, but how much do they really matter? In this piece, Arthur argues that the macro risk from the US-China trade conflict has ebbed to almost zero. What’s important now is to understand the dimensions of the decoupling between the world’s two biggest economies.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Size Of State Subsidies

    The US government alleges that “China provides massive, market-distorting subsidies,” particularly to state firms. But just how big are China’s subsidies to state-owned enterprises, and what kind of economic distortions do they create? This in-depth report quantifies three major types of direct and indirect subsidies, and explores their effects.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    STAR Is Born

    Trading on the world's newest stock market board got off to a predictably volatile start on Monday, when Shanghai's STAR market opened for business. But while that was entirely foreseeable, the reaction of regulators will be less predictable, and will send important signals significant for the long-term liberalization of China’s stock markets.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Huawei’s Path To Survival

    The future of Huawei, China’s most successful electronics manufacturer, has looked bleak ever since the US put it on an export blacklist in May. But with the Trump administration proving willing to soften its export controls, and companies being able to find loopholes in them, it now looks like Huawei has a decent chance to survive.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Fallout From Baoshang Bank

    The takeover of Baoshang Bank in May was China’s biggest bank failure in at least a decade. But the People’s Bank of China managed the ensuing market jitters well, once again proving itself to be an effective financial firefighter. Still, Baoshang’s failure does confirm that the era of rapid, unregulated growth for China’s smaller banks is over.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Two Cheers For Unbalanced Growth

    China’s economy ended the second quarter on a high note, with industry and exports doing better than expected in June. The data reassured markets that the government’s macro policy stance—which has been quite conservative—is justified. But as Andrew argues in this piece, growth is being driven mainly by property, and can slow further.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beijing's Backdoor Into Europe

    The new enthusiasm of some European countries for China’s infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative has raised alarm across the continent. Brussels fears China is buying influence in Europe’s periphery, sowing disunity and threatening democracy. Our latest in-depth DeepChina report explains the real story of China’s influence on Europe.

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