E.g., 16-01-2022
E.g., 16-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2022

    In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Behind The Incredible Export Boom

    Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Demand Begins To Stabilize

    Chinese policymakers are scaling back their crackdown on real estate, having signaled a pivot towards prioritizing stable growth. The change in rhetoric has had a visible effect on the housing market, with a particularly sharp pickup in sales volumes in late December. This should lead to a further sequential improvement in sales and prices in Q1.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Covid Containment Evolves

    After a string of outbreaks, China’s Covid strategy is evolving. No longer aiming for zero cases, authorities are focused on quickly containing local outbreaks. This has mostly worked well, and travel will be less restricted over the Lunar New Year holiday. But the harsh lockdown in Xi’an shows what can go wrong if the virus gets out of hand.

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    Gavekal Research

    Validation For VIEs

    China’s policymakers have given foreign investors in Chinese internet firms an unexpected gift: regulatory validation for the variable-interest entity, a corporate structure which allows firms to skirt a prohibition on foreign investment. Thomas explains that while regulatory uncertainty remains for restricted sectors, a key risk has been removed.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    One Small Cut For Lending

    China announced a 5 bp cut to its one-year loan prime rate on Monday, the latest in a series of supportive measures enacted by officials to ease policy following China’s sharp slowdown in growth. In this Quick Take, Wei explains why future rate cuts are likely on the way, and why the cuts will be positive for Chinese bonds.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

    US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Securing The Western Frontier

    China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Welcome Reprieve For Property

    Chinese economic data stabilized in November as exports strengthened and the deep declines in property showed signs of narrowing—a welcome respite from the sharp drops in September and October. Even so, the sector is stabilizing at a low level rather than rebounding to previous highs, underscoring the need for continued policy support.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Green Light For Onshore Chinese Equities

    Chinese officials are signaling a shift in policy to counter downward pressure on growth, a move which Thomas and Wei believe will set the stage for a rally in onshore equities through 1Q22. The main risk is that policymakers under-deliver on their new rhetoric of stability. Meanwhile, the outlook for offshore Chinese equities is more mixed.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Currency Policy Gets More Hands-On

    The People’s Bank of China raised its foreign-exchange reserve-requirement ratio for the second time this year, a clear signal to markets that it wants to cool down currency appreciation. Wei explains that that the central bank is less worried about speculative market action and more concerned that the renminbi is simply getting too strong.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Big Blades, Big Dreams

    China is the largest market for wind power and the biggest producer of wind turbines. Yet turbines cannot easily be exported, and Chinese firms have found themselves mostly confined to the domestic market. In this report, Dan explains why China’s large presence in wind power development does not mean that it will be globally dominant.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After The Squeeze Comes The Consolidation

    The financial woes of China’s property developers are piling up and the government is offering only limited support. In this report, Xiaoxi explains why the tight regulations on developer fundraising will gradually force private firms to transfer assets to state-owned firms—which appears to be exactly what policymakers are hoping for.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Cautious Easing

    China’s recent cut to its reserve-requirement ratio is another signal that policymakers are becoming more willing to ease policy to counter the sharp slowdown in growth. But will it be enough? Wei argues that, while positive for equities, the modest easing set to occur in 2022 will at best stabilize growth rather than drive a cyclical rebound.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Seminar & Webinar — December 2021

    In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Regulatory Risks Remain

    China’s crackdown on internet companies is far from over. The government is pursuing a broader rectification of internet business practices, and regulators have been given tougher enforcement powers and broader reach. Ernan and Thomas explain that while this environment may not be terrible for all internet companies, it is still a risky one.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Becomes A Fiscal Burden

    With a downturn in property intensifying China’s economic slowdown, hopes are rising that a pickup in infrastructure investment will help stabilize growth in 2022. But as Wei argues in this piece, the property downturn is becoming a major drag on local-government finances, which will limit their ability to boost public works spending.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Wave Of Bank Stress

    The downturn in China’s property sector will be a strain on smaller banks, which are less well-capitalized and often more exposed to the real-estate sector than their larger counterparts. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains why regulators are likely to take a hands-off approach to the problem, tolerating bank closures and encouraging bank mergers.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Stimulus Won't Be Green

    As the sharp downturn in China’s property sector continues to deepen, hopes for the stabilization of economic growth are turning to the prospect of a “green stimulus” via two new lending tools. In this report, Wei explains why the impact of these tools is likely to be negligible, as they are no substitute for an actual relaxation of macro policy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dual Strategy For Semiconductors

    China’s drive for semiconductor sovereignty is entering a new phase, with government and industry converging on a dual strategy to reduce vulnerability to US sanctions. First, create a domestic supply chain for mature chip technology; second, invest in new technologies that could offer a different path to competing with leading-edge products.

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