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E.g., 02-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    QE3: Now Or Later?

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    A Money-Making Proposal To Save The Euro

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    China Is Changing: Get Used To It

    The latest round of Chinese economic news prompted predictable reactions. Pessimists gloated that the slowdown in industrial production and investment continues. Optimists jumped on the publication of a mass of infrastructure project approvals by the state planning agency as proof that a stimulus-led recovery is imminent. Pessimists retorted that the new stimulus simply shows China hasn’t kicked its fatal addiction to capital intensive growth.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Welcome To The Chinese Business Cycle

    Over the last few years, China has not had business cycles: it has had policy cycles. Economic ups and downs were driven almost entirely by high-level policy, and understanding which way the government wanted the economy to go was, more or less, all you needed to know. Most observers, including ourselves, thus expected the government’s switch to pro-growth policies in October 2011 to have steadied the economy by now. This has not happened,...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Hope Springs Eternal

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    Gavekal Research

    Robots Ignore The Business Cycle

    In a world of stagnant demand and excess production capacity it is nice to find a contrarian tale. But at a time when many industrial economies face downward pressure on wages it is perhaps ironic that the production of labor-saving devices is a major bright spot. Robot sales for 2011 leapt 38% by volume terms and 46% by value according to the latest data from the industry’s main trade association. Moreover, a big chunk of the increase came from...

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: The Liquidity Dams

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    A Defensible Fortress In A Digital Age

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Draghi's Plan

    So it is done now. The European Central Bank has announced a plan: it is called the OMT, for Outright Monetary Transactions, and to make a long story short, this plan is essentially a way to bypass the German opposition to providing a banking license to the size-limited ESM bailout vehicle. It does this through conditional but potentially unlimited ECB purchases of short-dated government bonds. By focusing on the short end of the curve (one to...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Tread Softly Into Korean Equities

    Last week we argued the case for Asian equities (see Look To Asia For Value). But with global growth still sluggish, which markets stand out in a region that remains heavily geared toward exports? Chinese growth, after all, has slowed, causing many of the corporate winners from the last cycle to come unstuck (see China’s Path to Reform). Southeast Asia has strong growth drivers but after a good run cannot be considered cheap. Looking across Asia...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The New Balance Of Risks

    While the struggle between the competing economic visions of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek rages on in the West, the eastern front of this battle has long been quiet. In China, the victory of Keynesian ideas has been near-complete: it is hard to think of another government that has so feared the costs of unemployment and economic slack, and worked so assiduously to support continued growth in aggregate demand. The consequences have...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Books: Consumer clichés

    There are two types of China book written by Westerners for Western consumption. The better type describes Chinese people as individuals, and does not seek to draw crude generalizations about more than a billion people. The other type portrays Chinese people as an undifferentiated mass, but then presumes to explain how these people think and feel. A classic device is to shoehorn everyone in this large and complex land into a single, neat...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Dairy industry: What life for milk after melamine?

    What is China’s least successful industry? That ignominious prize goes to the dairy sector, after a stunning reversal of fortune. Just five years ago, China’s dairy farmers and milk processors looked set to turn a nation with no tradition of consuming dairy products into one of milk slurpers and yogurt guzzlers. Between 2000 and 2007, Chinese milk production quadrupled and consumption doubled. China appeared to be following the lead of other...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Film industry: Mandarins and moguls

    When China’s leader-in-waiting, Vice President Xi Jinping, paid a Valentine’s Day visit to Los Angeles, he romanced Hollywood with two watershed promises: a deal allowing American studio films greater access to China’s booming movie market, and approval of a joint-venture studio between DreamWorks Animation and three Chinese media companies. Xi, a self-professed Hollywood fan, agreed to allow 14 US-made 3D and large-format films into China on...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Leadership transition: The chance for change

    This fall, a meeting of the elite of the Chinese Communist Party will briefly allow the outside world a glimpse of its inner workings, as it names the small group of people who will run China for the next several years. At the Party Congress a combination of term and age limits will force the retirement of most of the current leadership, including President and Party General Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. Party Congresses often mark...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Agricultural investments: Rice diplomacy

    “Land grabbing” has become something of a buzzword in recent years. Powerful, land-scarce countries such as China are accused of buying up farmland in poor countries, and shipping the agricultural produce back home to feed their own populations. As much of the land grabbing reportedly occurs in famine-hit regions of Africa, the practice has understandably attracted widespread condemnation. In 2011, Germany’s Africa policy chief Günter Nooke...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Manufacturing in Nigeria: Lagos—the new Shenzhen?

    Analysts and policy wonks obsess over the implications for global commodity markets of a rapidly developing China, and what this means for resource-rich African countries. Yet the most important economic trend in China’s relationship with petroleum giant Nigeria has nothing to do with oil. Far more noteworthy is the growing number of Chinese manufacturing firms that have opened factories in Africa’s second-largest economy, which boasts a...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - Infrastructure in Angola: Winners and losers

    Its brightly painted tower blocks can be seen from miles away, a sweep of color amid dusty scrubland. Spanning 5,000 hectares with some 750 individual apartment buildings, more than a dozen schools and over 150 retail units, the New City of Kilamba is the largest new residential development in Angola. When completed, this suburb on the outskirts of Luanda is designed to house up to half a million people. The scale is beyond anything locals have...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - China in Africa: Investors, not infesters

    China’s growing engagement in Africa remains a hot topic among diplomats, investors and aid agencies. Around the time of the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (Focac) in November 2006, a stylized picture of Chinese engagement emerged. China was widely portrayed as a newcomer in Africa, desperate to gain access to African natural resources. China’s aid program was believed to be enormous, and largely devoted to propping up...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2012 - China-Africa relations: Complex, not malign

    China’s relations with African countries have been front-page news for nigh on a decade. Many reports focus on China’s quest for African natural resources and the implications this has for energy security in the West. Critical reports accuse Chinese policy banks of offering no-strings-attached loans that stymie the efforts of the international community to keep unpalatable African regimes in check. They fault China’s “neo-colonial” state-owned...

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