E.g., 28-10-2021
E.g., 28-10-2021
We have found 13225 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What I’ve Given Up For Lent

    For Lent this year I decided to give up investing in gold miners. My priest said this was like giving up broccoli; for Lent you are meant to forgo something that feels good. I replied that the Church banned self-flagellation in the 14th century; by giving up gold, I would free my mind for higher purposes. I still ended up with three “Hail Marys” and three “Our Fathers” for penance.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Inflation And The Stock Market

    Despite a roiling US bond market sell-off, equity investors had until Thursday taken comfort from the Federal Reserve saying it would stay easy for longer. They were also fairly relaxed about a gentle rise in inflation, which seemed to be part of a "normalization" process as Covid-19 vaccines do their job and activity picks up. Charles and Didier are not so sure, and in this paper test the notion that limited inflation can, in fact,...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe And The Politics Of Exiting The Pandemic

    Europe is at a strange juncture, as governments remain committed to massive fiscal and monetary support and refuse to rush into any economic reopening before Covid vaccinations are deployed. Yet despite this collective risk aversion, Italy has appointed a new technocratic government run by Mario Draghi that looks to have broad political support and a fairly radical plan for change. Our team explored Europe's exit from the pandemic and asked...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Bitcoin—Money Or Snakeoil?

    Will Denyer examines the forces behind the eye-watering run-up and eye-popping volatility of bitcoin, and delves behind the near-term moves in crypto-currency markets to ask whether bitcoin and its ilk will ever gain traction as a unit of account, means of exchange or store of value.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Emerging Markets And Rising Yields

    As 10-year US treasury yields have pushed higher, investors have begun to reassess their enthusiasm for emerging market assets. Historically, rising US yields has seldom been accompanied by emerging market outperformance. Yet rising US yields are not necessarily negative for EMs, and there are reasons to think this time may well be different, at least for some EMs.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Fate Of A Liquidity-Driven Rally

    The writing is on the wall for China’s post-Covid bull market as the underlying credit and profit cycles that typically drive prices over the medium term are turning down in 2021. In this report, Thomas explains why liquidity flows can trump these fundamentals for a while, but not indefinitely.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    It’s A Policy-Driven Market

    US bond yields are rising as the growth outlook is boosted by the vaccine roll-out and sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus. US value stocks and the sectors hit by Covid restrictions are ripping. Growth investors, in contrast, are spooked about this situation, as much of their worth comes from earnings discounted far into the future. The investors' reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony on Tuesday reminded...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Beautiful In Heaven

    Like the players on a rugby team, assets in a portfolio should both be all-rounders and excel at a specific job. For four decades, US treasuries both offered a stream of positive real yields and provided an anti-fragile portfolio hedge in times of market turbulence. Now however, Louis argues that US treasuries are at risk of falling from the position of anti-fragile favor.

    18
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    To Hold Back The Tide Of De-Industrialization

    China’s government is focusing on a new economic metric: the manufacturing share of GDP, which looks to feature in the next five-year plan. Rather than accept de-industrialization, it wants “stability” in manufacturing. In this piece, Andrew explains why China is worried about the fall in the manufacturing share, and whether it can be stopped.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Exit

    “We are not here to close spreads,” proclaimed European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde last March. “This is not the function or the mission of the ECB.” After the market took her at her word, Lagarde hastily back-tracked, and the ECB duly spent the following months doing exactly what Lagarde had said it would not.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Can Covid Vaccines Cure The Pound?

    The British pound has been the strongest major currency so far this year, contrary to Anatole’s expectations at the end of 2020. In this piece he outlines three reasons for sterling’s outperformance, but maintains that in the long term the pound will be forced lower.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Changing Composition Of US Inflation

    Investors are all in a tizz about US inflation as the economy begins to normalize and the effect of a huge fiscal stimulus is factored into calculations. Inflation expectations are above the Federal Reserve’s target at 2.2% and energy base effects mean the personal consumption expenditure reading is sure to rise from December’s 1.3%. So far, market action has been focused in the bond market (see A Discussion On Treasury Yields) but equity...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Draghi’s Reform Plan And Asset Prices

    Newly installed as Italy’s prime minister at the head of a broad coalition, on Wednesday Mario Draghi outlined an ambitious agenda of structural reforms. Notably, the former European Central Bank chief wants to oversee a root-and-branch overhaul of Italy’s tax system, while investing in the education system and streamlining public administration. His first task will be to steer Italy through the pandemic. But beyond that, Draghi’s plans could...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Discussion On Treasury Yields

    In recent days, long-dated US treasury yields have made a clear move higher. Unless there’s a violent turnaround in the coming days, February will mark the seventh consecutive month of flat-to-negative returns for treasuries This is an important development, with potentially far-reaching investment implications. Anatole and Louis discuss the outlook for yields, and the consequences for asset prices.

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Emerging Markets In The Next Phase Of The Pandemic

    Emerging markets have had a strong run, fueled by floods of stimulus in developed markets. Much of that money has flowed to Asia, where export sectors have thrived on rich-world consumers’ demand for electronics and other goods. The question is whether Asian EMs will be able to keep up this outperformance as they lag far behind in the vaccination race. Our team addressed these issues, and considered whether commodity-based EMs can again have...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Stuck At Home For The Holidays

    China spent the Lunar New Year indoors and online. Travel over the seven days of the holiday declined 77% from 2019 levels, but sales of major retailers increased by 4.9%. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains how holiday restrictions and the January Covid outbreak in north-eastern China has depressed services and boosted retail sales.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Geared To Global Recovery

    Since the global recovery trade got going at the beginning of November, Japanese equities have performed respectably, returning some 24% in US dollar terms. But they have not outperformed. This is disappointing. With high operating leverage—the ratio of fixed to variable costs—and more than half their revenues generated overseas, Japanese corporates should be a clear play on global recovery. Indeed, the consensus-beating 3% QoQ rise in Japan’s...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Optimization And Fragility

    I have played rugby for most of my life, but in recent years I have seldom been injured. This is because I have grown heavier and slower. It is the guys who are fast and agile that tear knee ligaments and strain hamstrings. Why do I bring this up? Because investors need to ask whether the global economy is a slow but resistant lumbering beast of burden. Or is it a finely-tuned machine in danger of spinning off its axis? Gavekal has touched on...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Versus The Anglosphere

    Beijing’s ability to weaponize its global trade power is concentrating minds from Washington to Canberra. On Tuesday it was reported that China has proposed controls on the production and export of rare earths. This threat is the latest example of why reducing critical dependence on Chinese trade is now a strategic priority for many countries, in particular those in the Anglosphere.

    13
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Steps On Hidden Local Debt

    In 2021, China’s central government is gearing up to once again tackle the hidden debts of local authorities, toughening its stance after a couple of lax years. As Wei explains in this piece, the solution is likely to be a mixed one, combining limits on new borrowing, partial bailouts of some debt, and a lot of kicking the can down the road.

    0
Show me: results