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E.g., 02-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    An Italian Renaissance?

    Visiting Gavekal clients in Italy this week for the first time in 18 months, I have been struck by the mood of sunny optimism that pervades the country’s financial community. Arriving there myself with a relatively upbeat view on Italy’s economic prospects, I was expecting at least a partial reality check from clients. But pushbacks were rare and half-hearted. Instead, stories of thriving new start-ups and returning Italian expatriates abounded...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Real Yield Mystery

    One of Will’s key calls for 2021 was that real yields on US treasuries would rebound from their deeply negative levels. But despite the news of Fed tapering, real yields have remained stubbornly low. Here, Will examines a number of factors that may be offsetting the expected effect of tapering and concludes investors should be wary a rise in real yields on treasuries.

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    Gavekal Research

    Shanghai Seminar — November 2021

    In our recent Shanghai seminar, Arthur Kroeber addressed China's policy moves this year, the decarbonization drive and the rivalry with the US; Thomas Gatley outlined the status and prospects for China's economy and markets; and Louis Gave presented his latest macroeconomic views as inflationary pressures around the world continue to mount.

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    Gavekal Research

    South Korea’s First-Mover Problem

    South Korea's central bank was the first in Asia to raise interest rates this cycle. Yet despite its apparent prudence, the market has focused on Korea’s worsening growth outlook and the BoK’s apparent limited scope to ease monetary policy. Vincent assesses the outlook for one of Asia’s powerhouse economies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Piling On The Misery

    Faced with a fourth wave of coronavirus infections, and in some places even a fifth, European Union governments are again tightening their public health restrictions. Clearly this cannot be good news for Europe’s near-term economic outlook. But how bad is it likely to be? A Covid misery index may provide a useful guide.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Inflation Is Still Not A Problem

    China reported a record surge in its producer price index, prompting fears that the country is both a victim of the same supply-chain shocks facing the US and an exporter of further inflationary pressures. Thomas explains that while these concerns are unfounded, domestic growth momentum is the real problem.

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    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of Bond Market Moves

    The last month has seen a number of major shifts occur in the US treasury market which may well be leaving investors scratching their heads over how to interpret them, especially as some appear at first to be conflicting. On examination, however, the market is sending four clear messages. They are consistent with each other. But that does not mean they are all right.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Conflicting Signals In US Consumption

    The US recorded continued strong retail sales growth in October. But more forward-looking surveys are showing a deep deterioration in consumer sentiment as gasoline prices have risen to seven-year highs, acting as an effective tax on households’ discretionary spending power. In this video interview, KX weighs these conflicting forces to assess the outlook for US consumer demand in 2022.

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    Gavekal Research

    Return Of The Kitsune

    In Japanese folklore, a kitsune is a magical, very wily, nine-tailed fox who wriggles out of tricky situations. It resembles our financial markets, which have a doughty ability to manage “tail risks”. Last year, Louis wrote a series of articles looking at such risks and today returns to that theme in a substantially changed investment context.

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    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Panic, But Do Be Wary

    On Monday, Anatole argued that Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic. His case is that favorable base effects and more moderate demand growth now that the initial reopening boom is over mean headline inflation rates will moderate significantly next year. As a result, the current elevated inflation rates will prove largely transient, rendering an aggressive monetary policy response unnecessary. This benign scenario is possible, but I...

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    Gavekal Research

    Markets Are Right To Ignore The Inflation Panic

    Considering last week’s headlines about US inflation exploding to 6.2%, a level not seen since 1990, many investors and most economists seem baffled, or even angry, about how equities keep hitting new highs while bond yields remain remarkably stable in a narrow trading range of 1.25% to 1.75%. In my view, the most surprising thing about these market conditions is that they are described as surprising. Sky-high equity prices and rock-bottom...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Persistent Property Problem

    The downturn in China’s property sector remains a major headwind for the country’s economic momentum. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team explains that although the downturn in China’s property sector will continue to weigh on growth, officials are showing no signs of easing up on restrictions.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: A Climate Of Change

    As the COP26 climate conference reached its end, our team of analysts convened to discuss what to make of the world’s major economies’ climate pledges. Europe has the most ambitious target, the US has finally outlined its specific goals, and China too has set a date by which to achieve a net-zero emission economy. How rough will the transition be?

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    Gavekal Research

    Payback Time In Asia

    Other than in China, policymakers in Asia made two big macro bets during the pandemic. Asian governments spent big and central banks have stayed easy for longer than counterparts in other emerging markets. Alas, their bets on inflation proving transitory are coming unstuck and the actions they now take will influence returns in the region for years to come.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Contrarian View On Brazil

    An inverted yield curve usually points to trouble ahead, and Brazil’s just flipped for the first time in five years. Add to that a botched Covid response, blowout fiscal deficits and political risk, and the next year may be one of living dangerously in Brazil. But given attractive valuations, Udith says there are good reasons for investors to take that risk.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Mortgage Easing Begins

    China’s outstanding mortgage loans grew in October, confirming anecdotal reports that banks have been allowed or encouraged to pick up the pace of mortgage lending. Wei and Xiaoxi explain that while more relaxation measures are likely on the way for property developers, it’s too early to say that their financial conditions are improving.

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    Gavekal Research

    Inflation’s Medium-Term Cure

    After consumer price inflation in October topped forecasts, it is clear that the US economy is running hot. And as workers embrace the “great resignation” rather than seek fresh work, the US labor market is tight. Still, my inflationary glass has tended to be half-full on the basis that improved US capital spending should ultimately help fix the economy’s supply side.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Politics And Policy In Common Prosperity

    It’s now been a year since top leader Xi Jinping first laid out his new goal of achieving “common prosperity,” but how exactly that new slogan translates into government policy still remains rather unclear. As Andrew explains in this piece, that’s because common prosperity is ultimately more of a political campaign than a coherent policy agenda.

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    Gavekal Research

    Transitory Inflation’s Unanswered Questions

    As a child, I was lucky enough to attend a Jesuit school. I once asked a teacher: “Father, is it true that Jesuits always answer a question with another question?”. The priest looked me up and down and answered: “Who told you that?”. In this spirit, I will try to answer today’s biggest market question—whether inflation proves transitory, or not—with more questions.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fed Chair Question And The Euro

    The resignation Monday of US Federal Reserve governor Randy Quarles has highlighted the question marks hanging over his boss, Fed chair Jay Powell. With each week that goes by, the failure of Joe Biden to renominate Powell shortens the odds that the Fed chair will not see a second term. This may help to explain the recent rallies in bonds and equities. If Powell is to be replaced, his successor is likely to be even more dovish. Given the White...

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