E.g., 22-01-2021
E.g., 22-01-2021
We have found 12765 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Turn In Asian Inflation

    Over the last year, a collapse in oil and commodity prices slashed inflation in Southeast Asia and buoyed real interest rates. As a result, regional central banks were able to cut policy rates and mitigate the impact of massive Covid disruption. However, this disinflationary tailwind is set to abruptly reverse in the coming months as inflationary pressure inevitably builds up. Ultimately, this rise in prices may wash through the system as a “...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Good And Bad News For Emerging Markets

    US president Joe Biden’s planned US$1.9trn fiscal support package for the American economy may provide a metaphorical shot in the arm for at least some emerging markets, partially offsetting the negative economic effects caused by the delayed rollout of actual coronavirus inoculations. Udith assesses the conflicting forces affecting emerging economies.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe’s Cruel Winter

    As the pandemic intensifies across Europe growth prospects in the first quarter are dimming, but investors are focused on a potential economic reopening by the spring. In yesterday’s webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Nick Andrews and Cedric Gemehl discussed whether markets are overly optimistic since the European Union seems to have botched its vaccine procurement strategy.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Logos, Idiotes And Demagogues

    Charles revisits the idea of the Greek "logos", "idiotes", demagogues and citizens, and how the Greeks believed that those who controlled the logos—the language used to describe the world—ipso facto controlled the political system. Problems arise when a new, competing logos started to emerge.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Towards Stealth Debt Cancellation

    The grand panjandrums of the European Central Bank meet Thursday amid growing calls for them to cancel the vast sums of eurozone member governments’ debt they have bought over the last year. There is zero chance they will formally agree to any debt cancellation, but the ECB may do so by stealth.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Small Borrowers Still Struggling

    Even after a dramatic economic recovery, many of China’s smallest businesses are still struggling. In this piece, Xiaoxi shows how the government’s financial-support measures did little to improve small businesses’ access to financing, which is already tightening. But the policies are helping banks avoid a potential spike in bad loans.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Flows Will Still Favor Indian Equities

    Indian cows tend to be scrawny beasts, but India’s equity bulls have rarely looked fatter. Stocks scaled record highs last week after a 10-week binge on easy foreign money. The feeding frenzy has faded since Friday, but local benchmarks remain up 25% in US dollar terms since the start of November, and foreign investors’ appetite for Indian assets does not yet look sated. While the vigorous rebound in India’s economy from last summer’s slump may...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Follow The Money

    After last spring’s lockdowns, the Federal Reserve undertook a huge liquidity response and the US government borrowed hand over fist to keep a range of economic actors afloat: US companies got forgivable loans, households received cash grants and the jobless were offered enhanced unemployment payments. Even after this splurge, the Treasury is still left with wheelbarrow-loads of cash. In the year ahead, how these record sums of money are...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s United Front Against China

    As the outgoing Trump administration exits with a flurry of executive actions directed against China, Beijing is not sitting around hoping for Joe Biden to spark a new era of détente with the US. The recent tightening of control in Hong Kong shows that President Xi Jinping has no intention of giving an easy early ride to a leader who has pledged to build a “united front of US allies and partners” to constrain a resurgent China. The European...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s New Political Cycle

    After a six-month respite, European political risk is back on the radar screen. Last Wednesday, ministers from the Italia Viva of former prime minister Matteo Renzi walked out of Italy’s cabinet in a dispute over how EU Covid recovery funds should be spent, leaving the coalition government of prime minister Giuseppe Conte scrabbling to survive. On Friday, the cabinet of Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte resigned over a scandal involving the over-...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Two-Speed Recovery

    China’s Q4 GDP growth surpassed pre-Covid rates, with housing and manufacturing leading while services lagged and infrastructure investment slowed. In early 2021, this divergence is likely to continue as consumers stay home for the Chinese New Year and poor credit growth drags on infrastructure investment.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Spending Plan

    In a speech late Thursday, US President-Elect Joe Biden called on Congress to approve an additional US$1.9trn of federal spending to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and support the US economy. If approved, Biden’s package will bring US government stimulus spending since the start of the pandemic to more than US$5trn. Heavy on support for households, Biden’s proposal would avert the risk of a first quarter contraction in the US economy and prime the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The First, And Last, Line Of Defense

    US equity valuations are stretched and bond yields are rising. This has always proved an ominous combination. What’s different this time is that the Federal Reserve continues to inject vast amounts of liquidity into the system. But will the Fed’s infections continue? And if they do, as the pandemic recedes will they prove big enough both to finance economic reopening and to keep asset prices afloat?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: China's Post-Pandemic Roadmap

    A year after Covid-19 was first revealed in China, the country has emerged as one of the key economic winners of the global pandemic. In this video interview, Arthur assesses how it did this and looks at the new priorities for Chinese industrial development in a world that has become less open and more suspicious of Chinese intentions. He seeks to answer these questions with reference to US trade and technology policy toward China as a new...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    For Exports, It’s Stronger For Longer

    China’s exports have been boosted by two side effects of the Covid-19 pandemic: a shift of consumer spending to goods from services, and the failure of manufacturing in other countries to get back to full capacity. How long can those advantages last? Thomas argues they will continue to boost exports through the first half of 2021.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Debate On The US Dollar

    In investment, few things can prove as dangerous as a “safe bet” in the foreign exchange market. So, when 2021 began with a firm consensus that the US dollar was destined to fall, only for the DXY index to rally 1% over the last week, people quickly began to question the prevailing consensus. Within Gavekal, this sparked a spirited debate on the direction of the dollar. Readers will not be surprised to learn that there was a range of views, with...

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    New Ceilings For Property Financing

    China’s policymakers are expanding their restrictions on bank financing of the property sector, imposing limits on mortgage lending in addition to curbs on borrowing by developers. In this report, Rosealea explains why the new regulations do not shift her expectations of flat property sales and a modest decline in construction activity in 2021.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Squeeze Of Old Hong Kong

    Last Wednesday Hong Kong police arrested scores of pro-democracy activists for joining forces to try and win a local parliamentary election and thereafter block government legislation. The use of a tough new national security law to suppress routine political organization threatens more international opprobrium that will further cut the city off from the Anglosphere.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Paradox Propelling Asian Currencies

    This year, the world is likely to see a sharp bifurcation in economic performance. In developed economies, mass vaccination programs enable a return to economic normality, while in emerging markets, vaccine supply and distribution problems will slow recovery. Paradoxically, EM economic underperformance will favor the outperformance of emerging Asia’s currencies.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Did Big Tech Just Jump The Shark?

    For investors, the last decade has been the era of Big Tech. But since September, US social media and consumer-related stocks essentially went nowhere. The unexciting performance belies all the attention these companies have been attracting lately. Following last week’s upheavals in Washington, several Big Tech firms took action to block people and services.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK After Brexit

    Four and a half years after the vote, Britain is properly out of the European Union and moving into a new era. It will surely be a freer nation, says Charles, but in this piece he asks: will it be a richer one? Spoiler alert, he thinks the upshot will be the City of London emerging as the world’s über financial capital.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Road Ahead For US Yields

    Friday’s US labor market figures showing a surprise 140,000 contraction in December’s non-farm payrolls emphasized just how tough the winter months are going to be for the world’s largest economy as coronavirus infection rates and resulting hospitalizations continue to accelerate. Yet the grim near-term economic outlook notwithstanding, the first week of 2021 saw inflation expectations push higher, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Covid Headaches Continue

    China diagnosed 527 new cases of Covid-19 in the first 10 days of 2021, mostly in Hebei province, in the biggest local outbreak since July 2020. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains why this outbreak is challenging China’s Covid-19 playbook and why its timing is particularly concerning ahead of the Chinese New Year.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bitcoin, Gold Or Fiat?

    Governments and central banks are giving users of fiat money reason to consider alternative mediums of exchange and stores of value. And it seems entirely possible that Bitcoin can rally even harder than it already has. But are there the makings of a good money? Because if the answer is “no”, then bitcoin is running on fumes.

    27
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Darkness Before Dawn? The Covid Vaccine Outlook

    As a new wave of Covid infections grips major economies, and social restrictions return, the hopes for a return to pre-pandemic normal rest on the rollout of vaccines. With vaccine production ramping up, most developed economies could reach herd immunity by late in 2021. But many emerging economies will take longer, and several risk factors could still derail the rollout.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Portfolio Construction Over The Next Two Years

    On Thursday, Anatole set out his view that undivided Democratic Party control of both the executive and legislative branches of the US government opens the door for unconstrained Keynesian stimulus, which will be highly positive for the US economy and equities. It will probably come as little surprise to Gavekal clients that I should dispute whether such unconstrained Keynesianism will be good news either for the economy or for US equities

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investors Should Welcome An Undivided US Government

    With undivided Democratic Party control of the White House and both chambers of the US Congress now confirmed, the Biden administration will have free rein to pursue stimulus spending. Yet the balance of power in the Senate means tax hikes are off the table for at least two years. Anatole argues this is highly bullish for US equities.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After The Storming Of The Capitol

    The sight of a ragtag army of diehard Donald Trump supporters storming Capitol Hill unopposed and seizing the floor of the US Senate shocked observers to their core on Wednesday. Yet despite widespread fears that chaos and political violence are set to become the norm, there were important indications late Wednesday that US democracy and rule of law will prevail and endure.

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Not As Hawkish As Feared

    The People's Bank of China is one of the world’s most hawkish central banks—but just how hawkish will it be in 2021? Bond market investors worry that the PBOC, eager to normalize policy, will be pushed into hiking rates by higher inflation. In this piece, Wei argues those worries are misplaced, and that bond yields have more room to fall.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s New Lockdowns

    On Tuesday, Germany followed the United Kingdom by imposing fresh restrictions on activity and movement that in effect amount to a new lockdown comparable—and in some areas even stricter—than the anti-coronavirus shutdown imposed over the second quarter of last year. With infection rates across Europe stubbornly high despite the controls already in place, and with fears mounting about the spread of new viral strains, the risk is high that other...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Senate Upheaval

    With some trepidation, Yanmei and Will offer their view on the economic consequences of Georgia, assuming that the Democrats have indeed secured a wafer-thin majority in the Senate. While the fiscal restraints will now surely be released and tax hikes are more likely, the real winners of this election will be centrists in the Democratic Party, who in effect wield veto power over its more liberal instincts.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Renminbi Races Out Of The Starting Gate

    The renminbi gained 1% against the US dollar in the first two trading days of 2021, leading China’s central bank to signal a pushback against appreciation by tweaking foreign-lending limits. In this Quick Take, Wei explains that such moves are likely to slow than stop the currency’s gains, as fundamentals still favor the renminbi.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Asch Experiment We Inhabit

    In the 1950s, US social psychologist Solomon Asch conducted a seminal experiment which showed that people were susceptible to conform with the group consensus, even when their eyes told them the answer was wrong. Looking at the Western response to Covid-19, policymakers have badly failed the Asch experiment. The conclusion must be that political risk in the Western world is now as great as it has been for a generation.

    17
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Decoding The Assault On Alibaba

    The antitrust investigation into Alibaba, following close on the heels of the cancellation of the Ant IPO, has raised big questions about the changing political environment for Chinese internet companies. In this piece, Andrew considers the best- and worst-case scenarios, and concludes that at a minimum, growth prospects have dimmed.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Gravity Or Liquidity? Which Will Win In 2021?

    In hindsight, 2020 showed that if three conditions are met, a stock can break free from the earth’s gravity, and lift off for destinations only sci-fi writers could have imagined. Consequently, one of the most important questions for investors in 2021 is whether such inter-galactic travel can continue. Or will the coming year instead see a shift in investor behavior, with gravity once again exerting its downward pull?

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Very Merry Christmas From Everyone At Gavekal

    Unless something out of the ordinary happens (and given the year we’ve had, the bar is set quite high) this will be our last Daily of 2020. It is thus a chance for me to wish our readers a very Merry Christmas and to thank you for your support, friendship and interactions over the past year. As we never tire of saying at Gavekal, ideas presented in our research usually originate with our clients; or at least, the better ones do (we come up with...

    23
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Goldilocks And The 10 Bears Of 2021

    In recent years Anatole has written a series of articles describing 10 key risks for investors. He readily accepts that this year’s exercise was rendered redundant by the emergence of Covid-19 in January. Next year, however, he believes that a greater range of factors could weigh on markets and in this piece assesses them one by one.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A “Little” Stimulus For Christmas

    Having agreed another fiscal stimulus, the US government is poised to give its population a US$900bn Christmas gift. This revives relief programs set up at the pandemic’s outset, testifying to both their success in keeping consumers and businesses solvent, and their popularity

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Will Stop The Dollar’s Decline?

    On Thursday night the US dollar index broke below the 90 level and so put an exclamation mark on two months of weakness. This sell-off means that the DXY now trades on a 14-day RSI of 22.8. The dollar is thus about as “oversold” as it has been in recent years. And up until 2020, buying the US currency at “oversold” levels was a winning strategy, if only because it was in a structural bull market. However, in the past year, buying the dips (...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Looming Correction For Iron Ore

    Iron ore prices hit an eight year high in early December in response to a tight steel market. Rosealea writes that this uptick in steel demand, likely due to China’s strong steel-intensive export figures, is unsustainable and should subside in the new year—resulting in a correction for iron ore prices in the coming months.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Boom Of 2021

    As he gazes into next year, Charles has reviewed some of his most trusted indicators and found that the US is moving towards an inflationary boom that should mean stronger growth, rising inflation and higher bond yields. If the Federal Reserve acts to crimp this adjustment in the price of money, he warns that the US dollar could tank.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Return Of European Inflation

    After averaging 1.2% YoY in 2019, the eurozone’s “harmonized” inflation rate went negative and settled at an abysmal -0.3% YoY in the last three months. Other price indicators have underwhelmed, as shown by the eurozone’s Citigroup inflation surprise index wallowing below -20%. In the US, by contrast, the same measure jumped back into positive territory after August. So what gives?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Road To Policy Normalization

    China’s economy is almost back to normal after Covid-19, and that means economic policy will also normalize: the question is not whether, but how. In this piece, Wei argues that the most likely policy settings for 2021 will be somewhat tighter fiscal policy and a deceleration in total credit growth, but no increase in policy interest rates.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Lure Of Korea In A Rotation

    Hopes for a return to normality as Covid vaccines get rolled out have helped fuel a global rotation from growth to value equities, and from previous “Covid winners” to “Covid losers”. Due to its better pandemic management, clear policy headroom and exposure to the electronics sector, Asia has generally been a Covid winner. Hence, Udith Sikand and myself have argued that beaten-up non-Asian markets are the way to play this rotation (see Asia’s...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Reluctant Executioner

    MSCI announced on Tuesday the removal of 10 Chinese securities from its indexes in response to a US executive order. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why MSCI’s narrow interpretation of the order leads to risk of more Chinese securities being added to the list, and how the decision adds to existing headwinds for Chinese equities.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Credit Has Peaked, Growth Has Not

    China’s economic momentum continued to accelerate in November despite an October peak in credit growth, with exports and manufacturing investment taking the lead while more policy-dependent sectors plateaued. In this piece, the Dragonomics team explains why China is likely to maintain its strong economic growth through 1Q21.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Deal Or No Deal: Should We Really Care?

    As the fifth season of the Brexit soap opera lumbers towards a predictably messy climax, the prospect of a sixth season will probably be enough to discourage international investors from considering British assets and sterling for another year or more. And rightly so. British assets should continue to be avoided because sterling at its present level represents a case of “heads I lose, tails I don’t win”.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The 10 Important Changes Of The Past Year

    Two years ago, 10-year treasury yields were falling (and trading below their 200-day moving average), oil prices were falling (and also below trend) and the US dollar was rising (and trading above its trend level). Today, the situation has reversed for all of these anchor prices in the global system. This profound change can be explained with reference to 10 tectonic shifts in the global economy.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Re-Centralization Of Finance

    China’s banking system has been steadily decentralizing for thirty years, with smaller and local banks gaining market share from the large, centrally controlled state banks. In this piece, Xiaoxi and Andrew show that this long-term trend has now come to a halt, and argue that the banking system will start to re-centralize in coming years.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Unfavorable Risk-Reward Bet

    Today sees the US vaccination program initiated, and investors are enthused that some kind of return to normal life is finally becoming visible. Nowhere has this “glass half full” view been stronger than in the US corporate credit market, as yield spreads for both investment-grade and high-yield bonds have broken new lows. These moves have occurred despite treasury yields creeping higher, and are starting to look overcooked.

    0
Show me: results