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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Urban China - Unlovely Cities

    Urban living: unlovely cities

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Capital Markets

    Capital markets: Best of luck, Mr. Guo

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Property

    Property: Weasel words, real construction

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Metals Man: Off To Desert Pastures

    Analysts have long been confounded by China’s aluminium industry. With electricity accounting for over 40% of aluminium’s production cost, they puzzle how a country with endemic power blackouts can be the world’s biggest producer of such an energy-intensive metal. Yet, despite regular government decrees prohibiting further expansion, China accounted for three-quarters of the growth in global aluminium production over the past decade. Annual...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Coal Freight Bottleneck

    Rail barons and road warriors

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Economic Survey

    CEQ Economic Survey (Q4 2011)

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Riding on a Wing and a Prayer in Europe

    Over the past 5 days, Italian 10y bond yields have dropped –122bp, Spain –142, Belgium –122, etc. This impressive rally has been driven by a number of factors: the recent coordinated central bank action to improve liquidity, the Italian austerity plan, the Sarkozy-Merkel deal on borrowing limits and penalties for deficit violaters. But of course the main force behind the rally is, as usual, a wing and prayer. Not only do EMU leaders have the...

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    Gavekal Research

    Two-Tier Economies, Two-Tier Markets

    Print Version:

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - China's Regulatory State (book review)

    Books: squabbling in the bird cage

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Reverse Mergers

    Reverse mergers: popping the scam merchants

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Shadow Finance

    Shadow financing: not so filthy lucre

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Oil for Loans

    China Development Bank's oil loans: pursuing profit -- and policy

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    Gavekal Research

    Japanese Manufacturers Move Abroad

    Japan’s merchandise trade surplus recently fell into deficit for the first time since 2009, as supply chain disruptions from the great earthquake take their toll. While this development may be temporary, it does draw attention to another, longer-term, trend. Japanese manufacturers have steadily increased their foreign investment in recent years, but many are now fast-tracking these plans to mitigate the effects of the high Yen and concerns...

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    Gavekal Research

    Is a Better Bureaucracy Enough?

    Next year President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are expected to hand over the reins of power to two Party-vetted successors, as part of the normal Chinese leadership transition process. Naturally, the question of their legacies is much on the minds of Beijing’s chattering classes. While we are not usually much for political commentary, the recent update to the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators gives us a quantitative way to tackle...

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    Gavekal Research

    Has Beijing Re-Opened the Liquidity Floodgates?

    Beijing’s decision to cut banks’ required reserve ratio by -50bp last week surprised the market and got everyone excited. But does this really mark the start of a new easing cycle? As we see it, there is not yet enough evidence to characterize this as a game-changing move.

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Further Signs of a "Two Speed" US Economy

    The latest data from the US is comforting in two ways. First, with the shadow that Europe’s unresolvable crisis is casting over the global economy, any offsetting role that the US can play is obviously welcome. Second, the jobs data from the US fit the pattern of a “two-tiered” economic recovery; in other words, one which is led by the non-leveraged sectors (see our latest monthly chart book, USA: A Two-Speed Economy). This is crucial because...

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    Gavekal Research

    Even Asian Workers Are Feeling Threat of Robots

    Luddites must cringe as one of the world’s largest employer of Chinese factory workers begins its move into robotics. Hon Hai Precision Industry (the parent of Foxconn) recently broke ground on a US$223mn industrial robot R&D and manufacturing facility in Taiwan. Not only will Hon Hai/Foxconn potentially galvanize the global production of industrial robots—but it hopes to increasingly staff its factories with robot workers. This comes as...

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    Gavekal Research

    KORUS FTA: Another Nail in Japan's Coffin? by Will Freeman

    The Korea-US free trade agreement was finally ratified on November 22, 2011 after more than five years of negotiations. While the FTA will be most helpful to Korea domestic consumers, in terms of cheaper imports and the benefit of more competition, Korea will also receive a marginal competitiveness boost externally in the US market. Moreover, the FTA will help Korea continue to eat away at Japan’s share of the US export market.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Fuel Price Reform Ahead?

    DragonWeek: an opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - US Swaplines: What a Difference a Few Basis Points Make

    It would be easy to write off this week’s news on USD swaplines as a bit of technical trickery aimed at boosting market sentiment without any real costs. In fact, the adjustment to the Fed’s swap facility changed the very nature of the program in a way that greatly enhances its significance in today’s global financial environment. At the prior cost of 100bp over OIS, the USD swaps were analogous to high-deductible, catastrophic insurance—only to...

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