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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Continuing Liquidity Crisis

    One of this year’s key GaveKal themes is that the world is facing a progressively worsening US$ liquidity squeeze. Because the US$ is the world’s principal reserve currency, historically these US$ liquidity squeezes have tended to produce either a drop in global trade (i.e., a global recession) or a major bankruptcy (think Asian Crisis in 1997, Russia in 1998, Argentina in 2001). Following these shocks and disruptions, the system would then...

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    Gavekal Research

    Construction Quarterly - Q4 2011

    Summary and outlook:

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Getting Over Delhi-Belly

    A steady flow of terrible news has issued from the Indian sub-continent recently. The Sensex took a 1,000 point dive in the days following Prime Minister Singh’s embarrassing reversal on efforts to open India’s retail market to greater foreign investment. Meanwhile, India’s commerce ministry admitted to overstating national exports for April through November by US$9bn (4.5%) due to “misclassification and errors.” And on Monday industrial...

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - What Are A-Shares Telling Us About China's Monetary Policy?

    Traditionally, in a telling reflection of China’s financial insularity, there is a weak correlation between the country’s domestically listed A-shares and overseas listed shares (red chips, H shares, etc). However as Chinese demand becomes more and more crucial both for regional and global economic health, one might expect that, over time, overseas listed Chinese shares will start trading more in line with their domestic brethren. With this...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Triumph of Southern Italy over Northern Italy

    In Have Southern Europeans Bought Too Many BMWs?, my colleague argues that Italy’s balance of payments problem is not caused by the Euro, but instead by the China factor and rising commodities prices. Besides the fact that Italy would have better adjusted to the pressures of a rising China and higher commodities prices were it not for its artificially high foreign exchange rate under the Euro, this theory fails to explain Italy’s disappearing...

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    Gavekal Research

    Have Southern Europeans Bought Too Many BMWs?

    We are often being told that the first decade of the Euro led to artificially low rates in the South, which provoked a credit-led consumption boom that allowed the poor guys in Valencia or Lecce to buy a BMW. This story is supposed to provide a colorful illustration of the intra-Eurozone imbalances accumulated over the last decade. Yet, as we show below, the deterioration of the Southern European trade balances with Germany has accounted for a...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Long March of the Communist Economies

    As we look forward to the coming year, we can bet our bottom drachmas that French and Italian trade deficits are going to continue to crater. Industrial production in most European countries will continue falling (who will invest given the uncertainty and the constant changing rules?). Unemployment is going to go ballistic.

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    Gavekal Research

    ...And Now for the Good News

    We reviewed some of the many downsides of the latest EU summit in Starting With the Bad News.... Now let us turn to the good news, at least for the Eurocrats and perhaps, in the short-term, for the European markets. The potential support from the ECB is the one part of the summit deal that could turn out to be much stronger than it seemed at first sight. While Mario Draghi’s public statements were less than helpful, they were presumably directed...

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    Gavekal Research

    Starting With the Bad News...by Anatole Kaletsky

    Although the usual post-summit rally should not be too hard to orchestrate in the thin markets around Christmas, there was more bad news than good for the dwindling band of bureaucrats and politicians who are determined to save the Euro, regardless of the costs to the democracies and economies of Europe. We will begin with the “bad” news–partly because our bias is to treat bad news for the Euro as good news for the world and Europe, but mainly...

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily: Fog in the Channel - Continent Cut Off

    At Queen Elizabeth II’s coronation in 1953 the Hakim of Bahrain came upon prime minister Winston Churchill sitting at the bottom of a staircase. He attempted to ingratiate himself to win British support for a Bahraini land claim against Qatar. By that point in the evening, Sir Winston was in no mood to discuss Arab territorial disputes. Later he instructed Britain’s resident in Bahrain: “Tell him that we never desert our friends.... Unless we...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Chinese Energy Demand and Durban

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

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    Gavekal Research

    What Is To Be Done? China's Debt Challenge

    On a Sunday evening in November 2008, China’s government delivered a surprise announcement to a world reeling from financial crisis. It pledged to spend Rmb4 trillion on a stimulus plan, three times as much money as the US government had at that point promised. Yet as later became clear, China’s real contribution was not a fiscal stimulus at all. Rather, it was an enormous surge in credit from the state-owned banking system, allowing local...

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily: EMU Crisis Fighting Intensifies - Will It Be Enough?

    No one expects leaders going into the current, umpteenth EMU summit to solve the existential problems of the Euro—much of which has to do with competitiveness and balance of payment issues. But investors are waiting for answers on three major questions related to liquidity and solvency issues in Europe:

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    Gavekal Research

    Singapore's Surprising Austerity Move

    This is an interesting move. Two potential motives stand out:

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - China's Policy Dilemma

    China is likely to report a sharply lower CPI number tomorrow: around +4.5% YoY for November, down from October's +5.5%, which is also the average figure for the past 12 months. Ordinarily this would be excellent news, but in reality it underscores the very difficult bind that Chinese policymakers have got themselves into. This bind arises first from a conflict between structural and cyclical trends, which are moving in opposite directions...

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    Gavekal Research

    My Visit to a Manufacturing Firm in Shanghai

    The 28 year-old Eric Li, Import and Export Department Manager at Shanghai YongLi Belting Company, pulls up at my hotel in his new Volvo station wagon. My hotel is on the way to the Yongli factory from his apartment near Xintiandi—one of Shanghai’s priciest locales. Eric wears jeans, a blue pullover, sneakers and a work-belt; he looks like any other Chinese factory worker except for the brand-name aviator sunglasses he wears for driving. He was...

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    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Is the Mother of All Mean Reversions on Way for Corporate Profits?

    The one reliable positive in the past few years of uncertainty, tepid economic growth and persistently high unemployment, has been strong corporate earnings. As Francois alluded to in yesterday’s ad hoc, Two-Tier Economies, Two-Tier Markets, globalization created challenges and opportunities that greatly enhanced corporate efficiency. But the problem with the past decade’s profitability strength is that, like all good things, it must come to end...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2011 - Urban China

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2011: Urban China

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Urban China - Migrants and Consumption

    Urban consumption: the migrant solution?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Urban China - Social Integration

    Social integration: whose city?

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