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E.g., 23-10-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can China Reverse Rising Inequality?

    China’s government has been hugely successful at raising incomes over the past three decades, but this may no longer be good enough. Inequality is on display every day in the streets of Beijing: the orange Lamborghinis of the nouveau riche share the road with farmers’ horse-drawn carts. The debate over the fairness and consequences of this new-found wealth is intense. We recently attended a seminar hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Means To Push For Reform?

    Today newspaper readers in Hong Kong were subjected to front-page scare headlines about ominous plans for Shanghai to displace HK as China’s key international financial center. The story comes amid rising cross-border social tensions, as reflected in a heated exchange between Hongkongers and Mainland tourists that recently went viral. In fact, Shanghai’s ambitious new growth targets for financial services have nothing to do with Hong Kong-China...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Velocity is Back!

    Regular readers will know that, since the start of the year, we have turned progressively more bullish on risk assets. Part of the reason has been a stronger-than expected performance of the US economy (see The Best Macro Trade For 2012?) and also because of the temporary reprieve on the Euro crisis coming from the ECB LTRO program (see The ECB’s €489bn Christmas Gift). Thus, it is our view that the rally on equities is likely to have legs, at...

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Less Gov't, More Private Growth

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    Positive EMU Growth Surprises?

    In the second half of last year, growth expectations for the Euro area plunged. As most advanced indicators of economic growth went from boom to bust territory, the consensus revised its projections for 2012 GDP growth from +1.75% in 2Q11 to -0.4% recently! This 2.65ppt swing was primarily led by deteriorating outlooks in Southern Europe and in France, but also by the prevailing assumption that the German economy would inevitably succumb to the...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Ducks Are Lined Up For A Rally

    A few months ago we were regularly getting questions along the lines of: “how big will the blow-up be?” or “how serious will the impending global recession be?” Recently, however, the tone in the correspondence from clients has changed and yesterday the following query landed in our inbox: “What could stop this rally?” This is a very good question indeed. Because whether one is a structural bear or a structural bull, it is hard to deny that, at...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Hedge Against the Coming Euro BoP Crisis

    Over the past two years, the euro crisis has morphed from a sovereign crisis in a peripheral country (Greece), to a banking crisis, and back to a sovereign crisis in core countries (Italy, Spain). At every turn a “solution” is devised whose purpose is to “save” the euro but whose actual result is simply to push the crisis into new and more desperate terrain. The latest solution -- aggressive easing by the ECB -- means that the next phase of the...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Breaking the Political Cycle

    Chinese politics are a black box. Yet while the inner workings of the Communist Party are hidden from view, their effects on the real world are not. There has usually been a close relationship between China’s economic growth and the Party’s five-year cycles of political succession. As the chart below shows, China’s GDP growth tends to accelerate in the year a Party Congress is held, and new leaders are chosen, and then decelerate.

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    Gavekal Research

    Monthly Chart Book - Asian Economies Face The 'Chinese Century'

    In this, our last and final monthly chart book before returning to our quarterly format, we take a close look at the main economies of northeast and southeast Asia, other than China. Over the past decade, all these economies have had to adjust to the reality of life as satellites of the neutron star that is China. Before the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, China -- despite its spectacular growth rates -- only accounted for one-third of GDP...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Burma's Cash-Poor Farming Sector

    While the recent flurry of interest in Myanmar/Burma has largely focused on its rich energy and natural resources potential, and possible low-end manufacturing/industry relocation, by far and away the largest employer of its 60 million population is the agricultural, rural economy. We recently read an excellent study by Burma expert David Dapice of Tufts University, called “Recapitalizing the [Burmese] Rural Economy”, based on a year-long, on-...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Goldilocks Scenario in the US?

    In 2011, the US saw a pretty steady weakening GDP growth (from +3.1% YoY in 4Q 2010, to +1.4% YoY in 3Q 2011). During that same period, inflation rose from +1.4% YoY to +3.9% YoY. This seemingly disturbing development led to some fairly widespread concern that the opening of central bank liquidity spigots was fuelling inflation more than growth.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan it is a-Changing - Really!

    Forecasting dramatic change in Japan has not been a rewarding exercise for most of the past two decades. Nonetheless, we believe that several catalysts are now aligning that could cause a change fairly soon in the recent status quo of high yen, low bond yields, undervalued equity market valuations and low volatility. The key factors include:

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    Gavekal Research

    US Housing Recovery: Once More, With Feeling

    A year ago we predicted that the US housing market was about to pick up, thanks to greatly improved affordability (US Housing: Look Locally to Identify the Recovery). That call did not work out—but we repeat it this year, with even more confidence! Our rationale is simple: the supply/demand fundamentals of US housing are strong. The current weakness is driven by a lack of buyer confidence, and the insistence of holders of distressed inventory (...

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Growth Still on the Glide Path

    The latest batch of data from China confirms both that the economy is steadily slowing and that the feared “hard landing” remains elusive. The extent of the slowdown is so far less than we and most others expected: official GDP growth was 8.9% YoY in Q4, barely lower than the 9.1% in Q3. The slowdown was however a bit more obvious in the NBS’ estimate of QoQ growth, which slowed to an annualized 8.2% in Q4 from 9.5% in Q3. Full year growth came...

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    Gavekal Research

    China Slowing, But No Hard Landing in Sight

    The latest batch of Chinese data confirms what has long been obvious: the economy is steadily slowing, but the “hard landing” remains ever-elusive. Indeed, official GDP growth of +8.9% YoY in 4Q11 was barely lower than the +9.1% recorded in 3Q11. The slowdown was, however, a bit more obvious in the estimate of QoQ growth, which slowed to an annualized +8.2% in Q411 from +9.5% in 3Q11. Finally, for the full year, growth came in at +9.2% YoY...

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    Gavekal Research

    Robot Workers in the Wild East

    The cheap labor “edge” that China has offered over the last decade has been eroding amid annual double-digit wage increases. Add to this the negative PR associated with factory labor conditions (following last year’s “suicide” drama, Foxconn started this year with 150 workers threatening to throw themselves off a building for a +20% wage raise!), and it would seem manufacturers are dreaming of the day when they can have robots running their...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Capital Outflows and Commodity Prices

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    Gavekal Research

    Does Friday's Nine-Country Downgrade Matter?

    This is undeniably the question that, over the weekend, every investor has had to ponder. On the one hand, it could be argued that rating agencies are, as always, a “day late and a Euro short” and simply telling the market what it already knows. After all, the yield on the Eurozone debt-weighted average 10-year bond yield rose considerably in October and November, to over 6% (see chart). The OAT-BUND spread also reached new record highs and has...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Euro Woes and German Culpability

    The world watched with horror and fascination this week as investigators sought the cause of an entirely avoidable shipwreck in Italy that could have cost as many as 40 lives. Meanwhile, the cause of a much greater wreck—that of the good ship euro—is heaving into view. As Greece moves towards default, as France, Italy and Spain suffer credit downgrades, and as negotiations on last month’s fiscal treaty reach deadlock, the euro is heading for the...

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    Gavekal Research

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