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E.g., 24-10-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Europe Can Survive The Storm

    Economic activity indexes in Europe have collapsed to never-before-seen levels, yet markets have rallied as investors have become persuaded that policy responses are enough to avoid a full blown euro crisis from unfolding. Europe for once appears to be more decisive in managing a crisis situation than the US and it is possible it may manage a swifter pick-up once the public health situation stabilizes.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Coming Collapse Of Exports

    As other economies shut down to contain their outbreaks, China’s hopes of a V-shaped growth rebound are evaporating. Thomas explains how the ensuing collapse in Chinese exports could result in a 4-8pp drop in GDP growth for Q2, offsetting any domestic recovery and pressuring policymakers to ramp up economic assistance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Great Fiscal Role Reversal

    In the global financial crisis of 2008, China defied economic orthodoxy with its huge debt-financed stimulus. In the coronavirus crisis of 2020, by contrast, it is the US, UK and other Western countries that are throwing the fiscal rulebook out the window. In this piece, Andrew explains what’s behind this surprising role reversal.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Baskets For Four Quadrants

    As investors survey the shattered remnants of the past decade’s bull market, they can reasonably assume that the winners of the future will not be those who dominated in the last decade. Louis applies the Gavekal Four Quadrants framework to address the question of which asset class will emerge victorious in a new macro environment.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Importance Of The Fed’s Big Guns

    On Monday, the US Federal Reserve rolled out some of its heaviest artillery. In a move reminiscent of the moves in March 2009 which finally succeeded in stabilizing markets, it both relaxed accounting rules for banks and launched a whole suite of programs designed to take risk off private sector balance sheets, including by buying corporate bonds.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    High Frequency Data For Tracking Covid-19

    As national lockdowns upend normal economic activity, conventional economic indicators are being rendered useless to investors. High frequency indicators may be helpful in spotting future turning points and gauging the strength of any eventual recovery. In this short chartbook, KX suggests a range of indicators for monitoring the US economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Lockdowns Loom; What’s The Exit Strategy?

    We are heading into another difficult week. Covid-19 case numbers and fatalities outside China continue to grow rapidly. Social lockdowns are spreading to more US states and European countries. In the short run, fiscal support is on the way. Longer term, governments will have to start asking the uncomfortable question of when the economic pain outweighs the public health gain.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Rural Banks On The Brink

    The economic stress of the Covid-19 outbreak is all but certain to cause a rise in nonperforming loans. Even before the outbreak, China’s rural commercial banks—its smallest and most troubled lenders—were already short of capital and performing poorly. As Xiaoxi shows in this piece, another jump in bad loans will push more of them into distress.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Covid-19, Markets And The Economy

    At Thursday’s webinar, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Andrew Batson discussed the Covid-19 outbreak and the consequences for financial markets and the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    After The Perfect Storm

    While most media attention is focused on the Covid-19 outbreak, the energy industry simultaneously faces a solvency crisis and a liquidity seizure of epic proportions is unfolding before us. In short, these events have created a perfect storm. What comes next depends on how this three factors driving markets play out

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Local Governments Will Lead On Property

    Even as China’s property market has experienced an unprecedented decline, central government policymakers have kept a tight leash on official support. However, given growing signs of a lasting disruption to the sector, Rosealea believes that Beijing will tolerate more ambitious municipal efforts to keep local markets afloat.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Money, Value And The Markets

    Above all, economics is the study of why goods and services have value and why these values are constantly changing. This study is greatly complicated by the fact that there are two different sources of value. In Gavekal-speak, we call these “scarcity” value (think jewels) and “efficiency” value (think tools). So the key question becomes not only “why do things have value?” but also “why do the relative values of scarcity and efficiency change...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Dollar Squeeze Intensifies

    Policymakers in the world’s biggest economic blocks are responding to the current crisis with fiscal and monetary “shock and awe”. Yet even as the much maligned European Central Bank joined the asset purchase party, markets have continued to crater. For all the coordinated economic responses to the coronavirus pandemic, there has been no serious effort to free up the offshore market for US dollars.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    A Bad Prognosis

    The US and Europe are moving towards Hubei-style societal lockdowns. Arthur sifts through the latest epidemiological research, and concludes that while the worst case public health scenarios will be avoided, the coming lockdowns will be severe and last long enough to have an economic impact possibly more damaging than in China.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Capitalism And The Coronavirus

    There is an inevitability to the economic responses being adopted by governments around the world to the current crisis. The real problem is that they follow years of cosseting the financial system through policies intended to deny economic reality. The cumulative effect, Charles argues, is that by the time this crisis is fully digested we may be left with an economic system that is a pale shadow of a market economy.

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Deposit Rates Are Back On The Agenda

    The People’s Bank of China has failed to join other central banks in the recent wave of rate cuts. But with the coronavirus now threatening a substantial hit to global demand, the PBOC is going to need to do more. In this piece, Wei argues that a cut in the benchmark deposit rate—a tool that has not been used in four years—is on the way soon.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Problem For Emerging Markets

    Despite aggressive policy moves in recent days, emerging market asset values have continued to crater. These moves are the result of lost demand and supply chain disruption but also the fear of a financing shock from a squeeze in US dollar funding. Despite many emerging economies having solid fundamentals, there are reasons to think things will get worse for investors before they improve.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Fiscal Intubation

    “This is not a time for ideology or orthodoxy,” said UK chancellor Rishi Sunak on Tuesday. Policymakers across Europe and in the US agree. They have now thrown orthodoxy out of the window in an all-out attempt to support economies hammered by Covid-19 countermeasures. In the US, the administration announced fiscal support worth as much as US$1.2trn, or 6% of GDP, complete with the immediate mail-out of a US$1,000 check to each and every member...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Solvency Crisis Or Liquidity Crisis?

    Collapsing equity markets, rising bond yields, widening spreads, falling gold—in recent days, there have been few places to hide. When markets act so sick, it usually pays to take a deep breath (in a socially distant manner) and ponder whether we are facing a solvency crisis, or a liquidity crisis.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Terrible But True

    Given the extent of China’s coronavirus lockdown, it’s not surprising to see double-digit declines in economic indicators. The real surprise is that the statistics bureau did not fudge the data, as analysts expected it would, and printed numbers bad enough to be plausible. This suggests authorities will be pragmatic about the growth impact for 2020.

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