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E.g., 02-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    This Summer’s Driving Season

    After four weeks of trading sideways around the US$60/bbl price point, the WTI crude oil price popped higher this week following a bigger-than-expected draw on US inventories. This lends fresh urgency to one of the more important near-term questions investors are facing: how busy will this year’s US summer driving season be?

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Two-Speed Recovery Continues

    Chinese GDP growth lost momentum in 1Q21 according to economic data released on Friday, with broad strength in the industrial sector offset by weakness in household consumption, particularly within services. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team dive into China’s Q1 economic figures and explain why they paint a picture of stability.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The UK Emerges, But To What?

    English consumers have this week embraced the end of lockdown and the reopening of non-essential services. Across Britain, a successful vaccination drive has raised hopes that drastically reduced Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations can be sustained as further restrictions are eased. In this video interview, Nick outlines what that is likely to mean for UK assets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Asset Allocation Amid Low Interest Rates

    Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Huarong Haircut

    In the last two weeks, the bonds of Huarong Asset Management have slumped -30% or more in price in the offshore market, as investors fear either a default or a vicious restructuring which will force them to take painful losses. Wei and Xiaoxi assess the fine political line that China’s authorities must walk to assess the likely extent of the eventual haircut.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia Goes Seriously Unconventional

    Asian governments reacted to the region’s late 1990s crisis by prioritizing export growth, financial stability and external resilience. The result has been two decades of orthodox monetary policy and muted public spending. This began to change with the pandemic’s onset and recent moves suggest a deeper embrace of irregular monetary policies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Not Just A base Effect

    Even adjusting for base effects, US consumer price inflation is accelerating. This is not surprising, as expansionary factors like fast money supply growth and strong demand are driving up prices. In this context, it is also not surprising that real assets (equities, commodities, TIPS) have outpaced nominal assets (cash, nominal bonds). But how long-lasting will inflation’s rise prove to be, and when will the Federal Reserve start to normalize...

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    The Ant And The Grasshoppers

    In the last few days, Chinese policymakers have stepped up the campaign to rein in their domestic tech giants, slapping Alibaba with fines of US$2.75bn and forcing the restructuring of Alibaba spin-off Ant Financial. Their action is in stark contrast to the inaction of regulators in western countries. But this is hardly the only contrast between China and the west.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    A Case Study: US Long Bonds

    With recent moves at the long end of the US treasury curve causing consternation among investors everywhere, Charles dusts off his decision rules for US long bonds to see what they are telling us about the present state of the market and concludes that it is not yet time to lengthen portfolio duration.

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Curbing Mortgage Enthusiasm

    China’s regulators are strengthening their curbs on the property market as its post-pandemic exuberance continues. In this piece, Xiaoxi and Rosealea explain the central bank’s latest moves to curb disguised mortgage lending and cap overall loan growth. The main effect of these controls will be to slow lending to households and cool housing prices.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Living In A Stock Picker’s Market

    When only one major factor affects equities, correlations rise. At such points, the name of the game is not to pick the best stocks, but to get the ebb and flow of that key factor right. At other times, multiple factors are in play and these affect different stocks differently; in such periods, picking winners is vital. For most of last year, the US market was macro-dominated as the Covid-induced economic collapse caused equity correlations to...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Procedural Shortcuts And Political Roadblocks

    For a president with a scant majority of one in the US Senate, Joe Biden has an extremely ambitious legislative agenda, starting with a US$2trn infrastructure spending and tax bill. Yanmei examines the procedural shortcuts and political roadblocks that may either smooth or obstruct Biden’s proposed legislation to assess how much of the program is actually likely to make it into US law.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2021

    In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone’s Sub-Surface Slack

    At first glance, with the unemployment rate down from a peak of 8.7% last September, it looks as if the degree of slack in the eurozone’s labor market may be small by historical standards. However, a look at the level of employment (including employees and self-employed) shows that employment is down by 3.1mn compared with the pre-pandemic baseline.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Living With The Next Covid Wave

    Global markets are looking ahead to a post-pandemic world, but Covid-19 is still very much with us. Globally, new infection rates have risen sharply since late February, reversing their earlier decline. In the last few weeks, the US has experienced an alarming uptick in infections. The European Union is struggling to contain its latest Covid wave, which in several major countries compares with November’s for severity. And across the developing...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Fall And Rise Of Bond Inflows

    Foreign investors’ holdings of Chinese onshore bonds declined by RMB9bn in March, after rising RMB89.5bn in February. In this Quick Take, Wei explains how narrowing yield spreads and the decline of the renminbi against the dollar led to this sharp reversal, and what comes next for Chinese bond inflows.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Taiwan Risk

    With the hardening of the US-China strategic rivalry and technology’s central role in that rivalry, the possibility of a war over Taiwan is one which must be considered. In this report, Arthur explains the importance of the island to both countries and concludes that while the risk of war remains low, it is likely to rise in the next several years.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    When Do We Begin To Worry About Cost Pressures?

    For the last 13 months or so, ever since the Covid pandemic started to grip, the broad US equity market has been driven above all by fears and hopes for top-line revenue growth. Last spring, as investors anticipated a collapse in revenues, the market collapsed. Policy support halted the slide, and over recent months, as investors have looked forward to the end of the pandemic and a rebound in revenues, the broad market has scaled new highs.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Digital Renminbi Steps Out

    The People’s Bank of China is getting closer to rolling out its digital currency, with ever-broader and more public trials of the technology. The focus has been mostly on domestic uses and security issues—but there is more to come. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains what the PBOC is doing to prepare the digital renminbi for use in international trade.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Who’s Afraid Of The Big Bond Wolf?

    For the past two months, financial analysts all over the world have been obsessed by two closely related questions: (i) How much further will US bond yields rise, and how fast? (ii) Will rising bond yields kill the bull markets in global equities and other risk assets?

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