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E.g., 25-11-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Earnings Crunch Arrives

    Earnings season for China’s listed companies has finished, and the numbers are not pretty: the aggregate net profits of non-financial firms fell by 51% YoY in Q1. In this Quick Take, Thomas assesses the damage to earnings and outlines the consequences for the corporate sector.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Emerging Markets Under Pressure

    Aside from China, emerging markets have not been hit as hard as rich countries by Covid-19, but their asset markets have been hammered. An optimistic view holds that undervalued EM assets can now bounce back. Udith and Vincent are more cautious: a dollar-squeeze could yet hurt markets that have otherwise decent fundamentals and attractive valuations.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2020

    Markets are showing both signs of dislocation (in negative oil prices) and impressive stability (the S&P 500 is only down -4.1% over the previous 12 months). Is this stability a Federal Reserve-induced illusion? Are there more shocks to come? If so, where? In our monthly investment roundtable, Louis, Charles and Anatole discussed market scenarios for the months ahead.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Benefit Of Panicking Early

    Among industrialized nations, Taiwan stands out as the least affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Taiwan chose to “panic early” by barring entry to foreign travelers, enforcing strict quarantines and assiduously tracking potential infections. The payoff has been no material disruption to domestic activity, which should lead to continued outperformance of the Taiwan dollar.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Truth About Banks And Bonds

    As I elucidated last week Knut Wicksell’s key idea was that in any market economy there are not one, but two key interest rates, whose relative position drives the cycle. The theory makes good sense, but computing the two rates is tricky. My insight is that I don’t need to compute these two rates but instead measure the structural performance of bank equities in each market.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US’s Exit From Lockdown

    The United States is moving towards a release from its lockdown. With individual states treading different paths, the process looks messy and accident-prone. However, Yanmei argues that investors should look through the noise of states’ rights arguments as the US is cranking up Covid-19 testing and generally heading in the right direction.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Queen’s Head Remains The Better Long-Term Bet

    In hard times, a nation often feeds off the blood spilled by its martyrs and is re-energized. Undeniably, we now face an unprecedented crisis that is producing heroes and martyrs, especially among healthcare workers who have acted with devotion and honor. But has this created national unity?

    15
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Modeling Projections For The Covid-19 Epidemic

    Gavekal Intelligence Software is collaborating with ETH Zurich and Shenzhen's Southern University of Science & Technology to track the spread of Covid-19. GIS principal Didier Darcet presented the findings in a conversation with Louis Gave

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    New Infrastructure, Old Problems

    China is promising a boost in so-called “new infrastructure,” of which 5G network development is a major component. Dan explains how the scale of spending involved in building 5G infrastructure is too small to provide a meaningful boost to growth, and why any possible economic benefits from a faster mobile network will not be realized anytime soon.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy’s Debt Sustainability Question

    In the short term, Italy’s sovereign spreads are unlikely to be greatly troubled by the decision late Tuesday from Fitch to downgrade the country’s debt rating. In the longer term, however, in the absence of some form of eurozone fiscal union, Italy will remain caught in a vicious debt trap, which must call its continued membership of the single currency into question.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Kitsune Market (Part II)

    Last week, Louis introduced the Kitsune, Japan’s mythical nine-tailed fox, and outlined four tail risks which could upend investment after Covid-19. Today he examines two more important tail risks: that the pandemic might not prove deflationary but inflationary, and the risk that the market’s “don’t fight the Fed” mentality could collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan's Next Monetary Move

    Yesterday, the Bank of Japan attempted to pull another rabbit out of the hat by announcing plans to turbo-charge its already aggressive monetary easing program, ostensibly to help deliver its fiscal stimulus package without roiling the JGB market. Look closer though, and it appears the BoJ’s real goal is to stop the yen from succumbing to fundamental pressures by appreciating.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Three Big Questions For India

    Under one of the world’s most stringent lockdowns, the prospect that India will be devastated by the coronavirus pandemic is receding, and attention is shifting from saving lives to saving the economy. Tom examines the three big questions hanging over the Indian economy to determine how successful the country's recovery is likely to be.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Short, Medium And Long Term Outlook

    At the end of March, just after the collapse of global stock markets and non-dollar currencies had reached its climax, I argued that it was too early to buy equities but probably a good time to sell US dollars. The first of these ideas turned out to be wrong, the second irrelevant. But far from admitting defeat, I think it is worth doubling down on both these recommendations.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why The Recovery Slowed In April

    Every economic indicator in China bounced upward in March, as the government relaxed its lockdown. But the trajectory of the recovery since then has not been as strong: many high-frequency indicators have plateaued in April. In this piece, Ernan explains how China’s cautious policymakers have kept many restrictions on daily activities in place.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    The Trouble With Eurozone Banks

    European leaders trod a fine line on Thursday, opening the way for a hefty “recovery refund”, but not committing to one and not saying how the money may be spent. Eurozone capital markets—except for bank stocks—have been fairly calm, and so do not need a hasty bailout. That exception, however, is a problem that may end up consuming a big part of any rescue fund.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Kitsune Market

    The Kitsune, the mythical Japanese fox which portends a change of fortune, has nine tails. Inspired by the unnatural conditions in markets, Louis has identified nine tail risks which could upend the investment world over the short to medium term. In the first installment of a two-part series, he outlines four tail risks that investors should consider hedging against.

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Investing In A Time Of Covid-19 (French)

    Charles Gave Louis Gave, and Cedric Gemehl, along with principal of Gavekal Intelligence Software Didier Darcet, participated in a French-speaking webinar. They discussed the global investment outlook in light of the latest Covid-19 tracking data, and how to invest in a world dominated by central banks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Outlook For China Consumption, Labor Markets And Supply Chains

    In Thursday's webinar, Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented the findings of RedTech's consumer surveys in China. Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui outlined the status of China's labor markets and how they relate to consumption, and Dan Wang spoke on what the Covid-19 crisis is doing to supply chains both in China and globally.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Swift Recovery For Corporate Profits

    Broad equity indexes in China seem to be faring much better than they should, given the poor Q2 outlook for Chinese corporate profits. Thomas surmises this is due to investors’ belief that policy stimulus will grow to 2009 levels and continue into Q3—a belief that is likely to disappoint, leading to a potential correction in H2.

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