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E.g., 20-09-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Limited Help For Struggling SMEs

    Chinese policymakers have announced a wide range of monetary and fiscal measures intended to help the smaller firms hit hardest by the Covid-19 outbreak. The helpfulness of these measures will likely only be marginal; however, Thomas, Xiaoxi and Wei are cautiously optimistic that most SMEs can still weather the ongoing crisis.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Serious About Biosecurity

    China’s government is rethinking its approach to biosecurity in order to reduce the odds of future outbreaks of infectious disease. In this piece, Lance explains what treating biosecurity as a part of national security will mean for regulation, public health and the biotechnology sector.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: A Fragile Stabilization

    The Reserve Bank of India's rescue of troubled private sector lender Yes Bank highlights the feedback loop between India’s bad-loan-burdened financial system and its stuttering economy, which is now facing its lowest growth rate since the financial crisis. The current steep prices of Indian equities and the rupee are increasingly hard to justify.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2020

    In Thursday’s conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Andrew Batson and Cedric Gemehl discussed the policy and market reactions to the Covid-19 outbreak.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Unfolding Rotation

    Last Friday, the markets rallied hard into the close as investors anticipated a coordinated policy move over the weekend. With policy responses in the rear view mirror, this weekend will likely prove different. Markets will continue to be choppy in the immediate future. Even so, amid all the volatility, some interesting developments are emerging.

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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The A-Share Rebound

    Although China is ground zero for the coronavirus outbreak, its onshore stock markets are the world’s best performing major markets so far this year by a considerable margin. For the most part this is due to mood-enhancing domestic policy support, which is likely to continue to counteract the catastrophic near term earnings outlook.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: What Can The ECB Do?

    This week the US federal Reserve cut interest rates to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and the European Central Bank promised to follow suit with “appropriate” measures of its own. But eurozone policy rates are already negative, which severely limits the scope for further cuts.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Exponential Optimization

    The bull market of the last few years has been built on the twin assumptions that globalization will continue, and that interest rates will remain low for years to come. These convictions have propelled an exponential wave of optimization. As the coronavirus calls key assumptions into question, the worry is that the giant bubble which sits at the heart of the system may be about to burst.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    How To Ride The Liquidity Wave

    On Tuesday the US Federal Reserve made good on its promise to counter the “evolving risks to economic activity” posed by the coronavirus, cutting its key policy rate. Monetary easing will neither cure the virus nor fix disrupted supply chains, but it will provide cheap funds for companies while they weather the storm.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Month Of Lost Wages

    As the rise in new cases of Covid-19 in China has slowed, provinces are easing their drastic restrictions on movement and businesses are reopening. But the extended shutdown has already imposed great costs on migrant workers. Ernan estimates lost wages will be 3-4% of annual household income, though with a smaller impact on total consumption.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Real Threat To The US Health Care Industry

    As Democrats choose a presidential candidate, much of the debate has centered around proposals to introduce universal health care coverage, how much that would cost, and the damage it would inflict on the US health care sector. But in fact, the biggest potential threat to the health care industry comes from a different quarter altogether.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Buy The Dip, Or Sell The Rally?

    When the market falls -10% in a week, and then rallies 5% in a day, investors face a question: Do I buy the dip, or sell the rally? An investor selling the rally would in essence be making a bet that the negative impact of the coronavirus will outweigh the central bank support and G7 finance ministry action that has been promised.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    When To Catch A Falling Knife

    Now that the Federal Reserve has hit the panic button, is it time to try to catch the falling knife on Wall Street? Technical analysis and investor sentiment suggest that equity prices may still have somewhat further to fall before they find a sustainable floor, even if the viral threat is probably overstated and stimulus by major governments will eventually outweigh the temporary economic collapse.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Global Virus, Local Reactions

    In the last week of February, global investors woke up to the massive effect of China’s coronavirus lockdown and the risks of a global pandemic. The resulting disruption to global supply chains will be widespread and long lasting. But not all is bleak. The Fed has promised to support the US economy, and many emerging markets have room both for expansionary fiscal policies and interest rate cuts.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Still Dollar Bears (Humbly)

    The Covid-19 outbreak has sparked a flight to safety, reversing an incipient weakening of the US dollar. This is hardly unfounded, as the US so far has been spared a major outbreak and its economy is decently insulated. Yet most of the factors weighing on the US dollar late last year remain valid. Thus Will and KX advise a negative dollar bias.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Worst Is Yet To Come For Steel

    Steelmakers have continued production despite a precipitous drop in demand, resulting in a short-term inventory glut. As Rosealea explains, this will lead to continued downward pressure on steel prices, at least until the construction sector recovers from the coronavirus crisis and drives demand back up to meet supply.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Last Shall Be First

    Just a week ago, the S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and Eurostoxx 50 were all looking healthy. But over the past week, every major market has fallen by anywhere from -6% to -12%. This is highly unusual. The S&P 500 has only fallen by -10% or more four times in its post-1945 history. Each of these drops ended up having hugely important investment ramifications.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fragility Of A Complex World

    The question investors must confront is whether the global economy is a slow but resistant beast of burden, or a finely tuned machine which has now been thrown off its axis.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Infrastructure Stimulus

    As size of China’s growth shock from the coronavirus shutdown becomes clear, yet another infrastructure stimulus looks to be on the way. In this piece, Wei assesses the scale of the possible boost. The most likely outcome is that public-works spending accelerates to 8-9% in 2020 from just 3.3%, a nice boost but still well below historical peaks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Still The Safest Port In A Macro Storm

    It took a while, but fear of contagion is gripping Wall Street. In the last week, the S&P 500 has fallen -8%, while 10-year US treasury bills have hit a new all-time low. Yet the risk-off move in US asset markets triggered by worries the coronavirus epidemic is turning into a global pandemic is at odds with underlying US fundamentals.

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