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E.g., 28-02-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    The Return Of US Fiscal Policy

    More than three years after the world fretted about the US economy falling off a “fiscal cliff”, there is suddenly much talk of government spending being used to gin up growth. Whatever their many differences, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump favour a fiscal expansion, with a focus on upgrading the US’s aging infrastructure stock. At the same time Federal Reserve officials, led by Janet Yellen and John Williams, are arguing for more fiscal...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Other Property Inventory Problem Is Even Bigger

    China’s inventories of unsold housing have been declared a national problem—but officials should spare a moment for the even larger overhang in the non-residential property market. While the irrational exuberance toward commercial and office construction is finally fading, they will be a drag on construction growth for the foreseeable future.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Real Yields Still Favor A Strong Yen

    Haruhiko Kuroda didn’t quite say he will do “whatever it takes” to push up inflation expectations, but he did the next best thing. Speaking at Jackson Hole on Saturday, the Bank of Japan governor promised “to take additional easing measures without hesitation”. Declaring there is “ample space” to expand the size and the scope of the BoJ’s asset purchases, as well as to push short term interest rates further into negative territory, Kuroda...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Pause In The Bond Bull Market

    The summer rally in the Chinese domestic bond has been strong, but now may be due for a pause. While Chinese government bonds certainly remain attractive over the medium term, they will probably range trade for the next three to six months until the central bank is ready to let policy interest rates take the next step down.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Fed’s Hawkish Stance

    For those who thought Janet Yellen a dyed-in-the-wool dove, her Jackson Hole speech on Friday gave pause as she endorsed fellow policymakers’ recent statements that the US economy was strong enough to warrant interest rate rises. Markets quickly adjusted. The implication for global asset markets is not altogether encouraging.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Yield Chasing—What Could Go Wrong?

    Louis outlines his view on this summer's unusual global economy and offers investment advice going forward into autumn.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Falling Natural Rate Is No Mystery

    As the high priests of global central banking congregate in Jackson Hole, much of the chatter ahead of the meeting has concentrated on the “mystifying” fall over recent years in the natural rate of interest, and possible reasons why it should have declined to such an extent. Having spent the last ten years attempting to apply the economic theories of the great 19th century Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, I have to say I am delighted with the...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Battered But Still Standing

    Battered by terrorist attacks and crippling strikes, France has hardly been having a good time of it. These problems were amply reflected in second quarter growth data which stalled after a mildly encouraging 0.7% QoQ rise in the first quarter. Yet a decent flash PMI for August—which rose to a 10-month high of 51.6—suggests an underlying resilience, which may render the 2Q16 soft patch a blip on a modest, but concerted, economic upturn of the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Next EM Yield Play?

    With global growth having stabilized and central banks remaining in super-easy mode, the dash for yield is making emerging markets ever more interesting. In recent months a number of our Hong Kong-based writers have advised investors to play this trend through bonds not equities, with Udith chiming in on Monday (see Indonesia: Bet On Stability Not Growth). The question for those who expect this “not too hot, not too cold” phase to persist is...

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Playing The Game

    The Olympic Games may be over, but Chinese enthusiasm for sports and a healthier lifestyle is still going strong. Participation in sports has steadily risen in recent years, driven by higher incomes, a changing culture and a more supportive government. Higher-income Chinese people are, like their peers abroad, ever more focused on their health.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Renzi’s Great Gamble

    Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has bet his premiership on a referendum over constitutional reform. It is a high stakes gamble. Renzi’s promise to step down if there is a “No” vote has turned the referendum into a vote of confidence in the government, its Europhile policies, and Italy’s membership of the eurozone itself.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    A Brexit-Induced Recantation

    Exactly two months have now passed since the Brexit referendum. It is now an appropriate time to review what has happened, and what hasn’t, since June 23. As a quintessential member of the elite that was angrily repudiated by a majority of British voters, this referendum was a profound emotional trauma. Therefore, my initial reaction turned out to be completely wrong.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Indonesia: Bet On Stability Not Growth

    Late last summer, Indonesia looked like a disaster in the making as the worsening commodity bust caused its currency and equity markets to plunge. A sharp fall in exports had caused economic growth to crater, while high inflation limited the scope for monetary easing. It was a time for strong leadership and decisive action, yet President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo seemed weak and ineffectual. A year on and much has changed with economic growth up,...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Milestones On A Different Road

    The latest surge in China’s outward investment is not driven by state firms following strategic dictates—the Belt-and-Road has yet to gain traction—but by the private sector. The key question now is how long rich countries will put up with big inflows of Chinese money while their own firms are shut out of the best parts of China’s economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Italy's Constitutional Referendum

    Nick presents what's at stake in Italy's upcoming constitutional referendum, and what it could mean for the European Union

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Politics Of Italy's Referendum

    Stefano Capacci On The Politics Of Italy's Referendum

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Cheap For A Reason

    By most measures, US equities are not cheap. Yet many investors remain overweight, believing that in a world of ultra-low interest rates and negative bond yields, equity valuations should be higher because future cash flows are now discounted at a much lower rate than in the past. At first glance, the equity risk premium—the expected return on stocks over and above the risk-free rate—appears to support this belief. At more than one standard...

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  • Gavekal Dragonomics

    When Will Monetary Policy Get Interesting Again?

    China’s monetary policy hasn’t been exciting lately: the PBOC has not moved benchmark interest rates since October 2015, instead keeping interbank rates stable. But as Mervyn King said, a successful central bank should be boring. This quiet can last a bit longer: the PBOC is unlikely to cut rates until 2017, when growth comes under more pressure.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    It Still Pays To Pump

    The dog days of August have proved anything but dull for the oil market. As chatter began to circulate about a production freeze next month, funds rushed to cover their shorts and put on new longs in the futures market. In response the benchmark Brent crude price rebounded some 17% in the first two weeks of the month to within a whisker of US$50/bbl, reversing much of its -21% correction since early June. It feels very much as if we have seen...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A New—But Pricey—Market

    The last big barrier to investment in onshore Chinese equities is to be dismantled. Yesterday China’s cabinet approved the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect scheme. When the new link goes live, international investors will have free access to 80% of China’s onshore market capitalization, though the Shenzhen-listed stocks have eye-watering valuations.

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