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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Cross-Border Flows And The Renminbi

    China is now earning more renminbi from its foreign trade and fewer US dollars, which means its currency can come under depreciation pressure even if the trade surplus is widening. But such downward pressure has diminished since August, and we do not expect the renminbi to fall more than about 3% against the dollar over the next six months.

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  • Gavekal Research

    The Myth Of Secular Stagnation

    When the European Central Bank meets today, discussion will center on whether it should expand quantitative easing in an attempt to stave off deflation and support the eurozone’s painfully slow growth. In Japan too, talk is about whether the Bank of Japan needs to step up its stimulus efforts. And in the US, the Federal Reserve last month decided to delay calling an end to its own zero interest rate policy amid evidence that US growth is in...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Long And Short Of Liquidity

    Charles sometimes likes to say that investing is simple: all one needs to do is figure out whether there is “more money than fools”, in which case risk assets rise, or “more fools than money”, in which case equity markets struggle, since they are one of the world’s main reservoirs for excess liquidity. Alas, what Charles fails to say with this quip is that working out whether there is more money than fools, or the reverse, is no easy job. What’s...

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    Gavekal Research

    Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

    Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar

    This is the full recording from Gavekal's October Hong Kong seminar featuring Joyce Poon, Andrew Batson and Anatole Kaletsky as well as a Q&A session.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hong Kong Seminar: Housing Explains Everything

    What is the best way to sort through the complexities of China’s enormous, continent-sized economy? In this presentation to our seminar in Hong Kong, Andrew argues that if you understand what’s going on in the housing market, then you know pretty much everything you need to know about the Chinese economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will The ECB Opt For QE-Plus?

    When the governing council of the European Central Bank convenes this Thursday in the Maltese capital Valetta, the assembled policymakers will be forced to contemplate a track record of quantitative easing that at best can be described as “mixed”. True, since the ECB announced its €60bn a month program of asset purchases in March this year, eurozone activity has staged a modest comeback, with growth expected to rise to 1.6% in the third quarter...

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    Gavekal Research

    Louis on leadership in the East and West

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    More Headwinds Than Tailwinds

    The better-than-expected GDP number China released today should help further calm market fears about collapsing growth and capital flight. But while growth is not collapsing, it’s also not rebounding, The data will likely look a bit better in the fourth quarter, but we still think China’s growth will take another big step down in early 2016.

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    Gavekal Research

    Japan's Deal Of The Decade

    Today will be a day of celebration for many Japanese investors, as they find out whether they have hit the jackpot with an allocation of shares in the initial public offerings for Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance. Together with the IPO of Japan Post Holdings, which will be priced next Monday, the three deals are expected to raise some ¥1.4trn (US$11.7bn), making the joint offering Japan’s largest since the 1998 IPO for telecommunications...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    When Will Construction Rebound?

    Given the huge role that real estate plays in China’s economy, we can’t expect growth to rebound much until construction recovers. In this piece we propose scenarios for how this could happen, focusing on the inventory cycle. We conclude that construction starts will decline again in 2016, with a cyclical rebound not arriving until 2017 or 2018.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Dollar, Deflation And US Equities

    Is the threat of US deflation really receding? Far from it—for a large segment of the US stock market deflationary pressure is set to intensify, rather than abate, over the coming months. Sure, data for September released yesterday showed an uptick in core inflation (ex-energy and food) to 1.9% from 1.8%, raising expectations that that overall US consumer prices are poised for a moderate uptrend driven largely by housing and healthcare costs....

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Ominous Signal In Inventories

    One of the characteristics of a recession is an overhang in inventories, which must then be sold off or written down before growth can recover. The overhang results from overproduction during the final stages of the preceding boom, an unexpected collapse in demand, or both.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Rough Road For Retailers

    Chinese consumers spent plenty of money over the national holiday this month—but growth in retail sales has clearly slowed along with the rest of the economy. On top of this slowdown, structural changes in shopping patterns are wreaking havoc with traditional retailers, who increasingly struggle to benefit from the bright spots in consumption.

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    Gavekal Research

    No Real Respite In Brazil

    Dilma Rousseff yesterday won a temporary reprieve from a threatened impeachment and Brazilian assets promptly took a beating. Investors seem to be hoping for a presidential ouster as an end to the political turmoil which has killed any chance of fiscal consolidation or structural reform. With an emerging market bounce seemingly ebbing, Brazilian assets do not offer an appealing risk-reward profile—even after yesterday’s sell-off, the real has...

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    Gavekal Research

    Could Volkswagen Save Europe?

    Volkswagen's stock price has rebounded more than 20% since its early October low, but there remains uncertainty about the firm’s future. Since news of the diesel polluting scandal broke, US$30bn has been wiped off VW’s market value, and you do not need to be conspiratorial to see a scenario that has the value of the German carmaker’s equity going to zero.

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    Gavekal Research

    Position For A Pick-Up In US Inflation

    Everyone agrees that US inflation, if not actually dead, is unlikely to gain a new lease on life any time soon. With oil prices down -48% over the last 12 months and the US dollar up 11%, inflation as measured by personal consumption expenditure is just 0.3%, while core inflation (ex-food and energy) is down to 1.3% year-on-year. What’s more, investors expect no acceleration in price rises over the medium term. The implied breakeven inflation...

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    Gavekal Research

    Can Stimulus Save China?

    Last week the International Monetary Fund confirmed its forecast that China’s growth will slow to 6.3% next year—the weakest rate since 1990, in the aftermath of Beijing’s suppression of the Tiananmen Square protests. In an attempt to counter this slowdown, in recent months the government has rolled out a series of measures designed to stimulate demand. It has cut interest rates, reduced bank reserve requirements, released funds for...

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    Gavekal Research

    Italy’s Debt Trap Escape Bid

    Even though Italy has run primary surpluses for all but one of the last 20 years, public debt has ballooned to 133% of GDP, second only to Greece in the eurozone. Italy’s original profligacy dates to the 1980s, but the real issue has been an inability to bite the bullet on reform, which, according to the International Monetary Fund, has reduced potential economic growth to just 0.4%. The good news is that Italy seems to have woken up and smelt...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Fallacy Of Containment

    Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hailed this week’s deal on the Trans-Pacific Partnership as evidence that “the curtain is finally rising on a new Asian century.” The TPP is the biggest trade agreement for 20 years, its 12 members accounting for a full 35% of global trade (see The Big Winner From The TPP). Yet it is hard to get excited about a trade deal that deliberately leaves out the world’s biggest trading nation: China. The TPP is designed...

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