E.g., 11-12-2019
E.g., 11-12-2019
We have found 12113 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why This Time Is Different

    The evolution of the yield curve over the last four months—an inversion after a series of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, followed by a rapid steepening—has been characteristic of the early stages of the last four US recessions. However, investors worried that the US economy may already be in recession can relax.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Brexit And The UK Trade Deficit

    The UK has long run a large goods trade deficit with its main trading partners. However, Charles argues that this ”deficit” should really be seen as two different deficits; one is with the world excluding the eurozone, and the other with the eurozone itself. Splitting them makes sense as they have different origins and react to different forces.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Boris Johnson And The Pound

    With Boris Johnson’s almost inevitable enthronement as British prime minister only a week away, it is a good time to review the recommendation to buy sterling and sell UK government bonds which I first made in January, and repeated in April and again in late May.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Normalizing Tech Disruption

    Investors have been cheered by the US and China deescalating a trade dispute that has focused on China’s use of US technology. So what to make of a stand-off between two US allies in North Asia that could disrupt highly integrated technology supply chains? Could this action reflect the normalization of trade sanctions being used in bilateral disputes?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Modi's Second Term Challenges

    Indian prime minister Narendra Modi faces some daunting economic challenges in his second term. As Udith explains in this interview, the biggest is to create new jobs India needs. In the coming decades, India must generate some 10mn new jobs every year simply to provide employment for the cohort of young Indians set to enter the workforce.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2019

    In yesterday’s Gavekal Research conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber conducted a mid-year review of the investment environment and outlined their expectations for the rest of the year onward.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Look For Just One-And-Done

    In Congressional testimony on Wednesday, Jay Powell cooed just like the dove investors want him to be. The Fed chairman dispelled any lingering doubts that either the end-June trade truce between the US and China or June’s strong US payrolls number will dissuade the Fed from cutting interest rates at the end of July.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beijing's Backdoor Into Europe

    The new enthusiasm of some European countries for China’s infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative has raised alarm across the continent. Brussels fears China is buying influence in Europe’s periphery, sowing disunity and threatening democracy. Our latest in-depth DeepChina report explains the real story of China’s influence on Europe.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    France's Industrial Resilience

    France is bucking the downturn in European—and global—industry. In May, French industrial production confounded expectations by rising an impressive 4% year-on-year. And crucially, French industry is creating jobs again after a brutal 17-year contraction. Cedric examines the reasons for France’s industrial health.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Return Of The Widowmaker

    If shorting Japanese government bonds is the ultimate widowmaker, calling the top of the gravity-defying Hong Kong property market cannot be far behind. The International Monetary Fund, for example, has been warning about the dangers of an unsustainable bubble since 2010. Now suspicions are growing that the stopped clock’s hour may finally be at hand.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Foreigners And The Deepening Of Indian Finance

    India’s new government delivered a careful budget last Friday, preferring to keep a veneer of fiscal rectitude than to prioritize growth and jobs with heavy spending. Yet there was one exception amid the caution: for the first time, India is set to issue sovereign debt in foreign currency. This is an intriguing development for foreign investors wanting exposure to India while avoiding currency risk.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Emerging Markets After The Trade War

    Emerging markets did nicely out of the rumor, less well from the fact. As hopes grew through June for some form of trade détente between the US and China, EM assets staged a broad rally. Similarly, EM currencies pushed broadly higher, on the back of a wider US dollar softness. Over the last week, however, EM equities and currencies have pulled back.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Emissions Mess In Autos

    China’s auto market is still locked in the worst downturn in its history. In this report, Ernan explains how the government’s rushed transition to new vehicle-emissions standards worsened that downturn, and why it hasn’t reversed course. Though an end-year recovery for auto sales is still likely, 2019 will be a second bad year for the industry.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Anti-Fragile Assets As A Diversifier

    Last July Charles wrote a piece warning of a recession in the non-US OECD economies during 2019. Today, he runs an update on that thesis and seeks to refine his safety-first portfolio using assets which contain “anti-fragile” properties.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Three Messages From The Markets

    Last week’s market action confirmed three longstanding ideas that I have been presenting to clients. Firstly, there's no sign of a US recession. Secondly, bond market "signals" no longer convey useful information about economic growth prospects. Thirdly, there's no conflict between bearish bonds and bullish equities—they tell different stories.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Investment Thesis For The 2020s

    A look back at the last 50 years shows that the dominant conviction among investors at the end of each decade about what would drive markets over the following decade was invariably wrong. With this in mind, and on the basis that avoiding losers is easier work than picking winners, Louis asks what beliefs dominate investors’ minds today, and how they are likely to be proved wrong in the 2020s.

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Direction Of The Dollar

    The US dollar’s strength over the last year or so has been attributed in large part to expectations that the US administration would impose additional tariffs on imports from China. So, with those expectations on hold following last week’s agreement to resume trade negotiations, you might think the US dollar should be falling.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Future Of Forced Technology Transfers

    As China and the US restart their trade talks, negotiators face a daunting list of issues to resolve. One of the stumbling blocks is the US allegation of “forced technology transfer.” In this piece, Dan explains what China is doing to address the problem, how that might not be enough—and why forced transfers of technology don’t even always work.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: What Is Libra, And Will It Work?

    Facebook will have an uphill battle trying to convince consumers to adopt its announced digital currency, libra. As it will be backed by a basket of assets denominated in different currencies, the prices of goods and services will be more volatile in libra than in existing local currencies, even in emerging markets. This volatility will deter consumers from making the switch.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Betting Against The Gods Is Now Impossible

    Recently I made my usual remark to a European client about the stupidity of negative interest rates. My host told me a sobering story. He manages a pension fund and received a call by a regulator who said funds shouldn't hold too much cash because it's risky. Rather, they should buy long-dated bonds, regardless of the fact they're sure to lose money.

    14
Show me: results