E.g., 21-01-2021
E.g., 21-01-2021
We have found 3807 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (October 15): The Equity Rout

    Overview: François Chauchat asks whether a US recovery is enough to drive global equity markets or has the world changed.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Oil Markets On The Brink

    Welcome to the “new normal” of the global oil markets. Investors are waking up to the reality that supply-demand fundamentals have gotten out of whack and are now readjusting. The price of Brent has fallen from its June high of US$115/barrel to around US$88/bbl, its lowest level since late 2010. This report will contend that prices could fall further before settling into a lower range and remaining there for a significant period.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Equity Market Meltdown

    Why are stock markets around the world falling? The surest explanation is one that works whenever the markets move in a big way: there are more sellers than buyers after a long period without a meaningful correction (it is three years since the 20% decline that ended in October 2011). A more sophisticated account of the correction might point to the collapse of oil prices and its impact on natural resource shares. While falling oil prices are...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Shanghai A-Shares: The Illusion Of Value

    China’s domestic stock markets have been on a tear: Shanghai stocks are up 15% since July, despite recent weak macro data and the absence of aggressive policy easing. Soon, overseas investors will be able to join in the rally: later this month, China will launch a new link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. But should foreign investors really be eager to pile into Shanghai?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Normal Or Systemic Markets?

    In The Crucible Arthur Miller wrote “until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”. Granted, equity markets have not exactly suffered Lucifer-like de-ratings lately. Nonetheless, the price action in stock markets around the world is looking less and less healthy by the day. Let me explain: when examining the performance of a given index over a very long period of time, one typically finds that, like most things in...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    If You Keep On Doing What You’ve Always Done...

    ...you'll keep on getting what you’ve always got. At least, that's what any sports coach worth his salt would tell a losing team in the half-time huddle. And perhaps this is the problem facing the big developed economies. Not enough of today's bien-pensants (Hollande, Merkel, Yellen, Bernanke...) or their advisers (Summers, Piketty, Krugman...) have spent time chasing a ball around a field. Let me explain.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Hidden Trade Deficit

    China’s current account surplus, once the focus of global economic anxiety, is shrinking dramatically: it fell to US$182bn in 2013, from its peak of US$420bn in 2008, and as a share of GDP has fallen to 2% from 10%. The conventional wisdom is that this fall reflects much weaker export growth in the poor global environment that followed the financial crisis. In fact the problems of traditional goods trade are overstated: China’s merchandise trade...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Calling Time On The A-Share Rally

    Stocks on the Shanghai exchange have rallied 15% over the last three months, and international investors are poised for the opening of relatively untrammeled access to onshore equities when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program kicks off later this month (though the rumor-mill suggests it will be pushed back for technical reasons). Tracker funds have been capitalizing on this renewed interest: Deutsche’s year-old Harvest CSI 300 China A-...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Waiting For The Regional Rotation

    After years of doubt about the efficacy of US economic policies, the revival of confidence in America stands out as one of the key developments of 2014. This turnaround has been attested by the recovery of capital investment, by the resilience of the US economy to the Federal Reserve’s tapering process, and more recently by the strength of the US dollar.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Fathom China

    Profile: Great Wall Motor: Off The Road

    Great Wall Motor was once considered China’s most promising private car company. It had an excellent reputation, a strong and charismatic founder, a strong position in the fast-growing market for SUVs, and a head start in exporting cars to developed markets. Today, Great Wall risks losing its way.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Hong Kong Endgame

    Today, after a week of excitement, the democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have largely fizzled out—at least for now. As the city returned to work on Monday morning, the remaining protesters did not try to prevent civil servants from reaching their offices in the government’s downtown headquarters. By midday the numbers outside the complex had dwindled to just a few scores, down from the many tens of thousands that had jammed surrounding...

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (1 October): The Energy Selloff

    Overview: Louis looks at the decline in oil prices and wonders whether the genesis can be found back in May when the leaders of China and Russia met for an historic summit.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Dr Copper Comes A Cropper

    It’s been a brutal year for commodities. Slower growth in China, and stalled economies in Europe and Japan, have eroded end-user demand even as the prospect of higher interest rates in the US has blunted investor appetite for zero-yield assets. At the same time the heavy investment of recent years is now bringing new sources of supply to market. In response, the S&P GSCI commodity index is down -7.2% over the year to date. Even copper, long...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong's Democracy Protests

    The inhabitants of Hong Kong were treated over the weekend to the unusual spectacle of police battling political protesters in the city’s streets. Baton charges and volleys of tear gas might be common enough tactics in New York or London, but not in Asia’s leading international financial center. The rapid escalation of the protests over the weekend and the police’s strong-arm response shocked locals, and triggered a -2% fall in the city’s...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Digs A Deeper Hole

    China’s local governments held a party for the housing market, but no one came. Most major cities (with some exceptions including Beijing and Shanghai) have rolled back measures restricting housing purchases since June, but housing sales are still weak. Previously, we had argued that the combination of a pickup in credit growth and the relaxation of purchase restrictions would help the downturn in property sales find a bottom relatively soon (...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: The Losers From Lower Energy Prices

    China should cheer a decline in global energy prices: as the world’s largest consumer of coal and second-largest consumer of oil, cheaper energy cuts its import bill and gives consumers and businesses more money to spend on other things. But falling energy prices have in fact brought significant pain to parts of the country.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: A Changed Energy Dynamic

    As we see it the big developments impacting the global economy over the summer would roughly run as follows:

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Rise In Volatility

    First it was the foreign exchange markets, then commodities, followed by fixed income markets. Now it’s the equity markets. Wherever we look, volatility has been creeping higher. To some extent, this is not surprising. At the end of the US Federal Reserve’s first round of quantitative easing, and at the end of QE2, the markets wobbled. So with QE3 now winding to a close (and with the ECB still behind the curve), a period of uncertainty and...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Learning To Live Without Zhou Xiaochuan

    For the past few weeks Beijing has been buzzing with rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) for more than a decade, will step down in coming months. We do not know if these rumors are true, but what is clear is that even if Zhou does not leave this year, his time left in office is limited. Zhou has already passed the customary retirement age and has stayed in office only through an unusual bureaucratic dodge....

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The PBOC Hangs Tough

    These are nervous times for global investors as volatility creeps back into asset markets and growth indicators disappoint—witness recent sharp declines in commodity prices and currencies such as the Australian dollar. The eurozone economy continues to weaken as shown by yesterday’s soft French PMI, Japan is moribund and China, while far from collapsing, continues to slow. Given the Federal Reserve’s tightening bias and a continued failure to...

    2
Show me: results