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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Nov 19th 2007
DragonWeek 2007 Nov 19th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-19.You can download it here: 0379_DragonWeek_071119.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Nov 16th 2007
China's Accelerating Inflation
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-16.You can download it here: ChinasAcceleratingInflation.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Nov 13th 2007
Macro Quarterly - Q4 2007
China economic outlook: November 2007
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Nov 06th 2007
China Trade Review - November 2007
China trade review - November 2007
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Nov 02nd 2007
The Boring China Decouple Debate
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: TheBoringChinaDecoupleDebate.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Nov 02nd 2007
When Will the China Bubble Burst?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: WhenWilltheChinaBubbleBurst.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Oct 31st 2007
What We Learned from the Party Congress
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-31.You can download it here: WhatWeLearnedfromthePartyCongress.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Oct 27th 2007
China Insight - China's economic performance Q1-3 2007
China's economic performance Q1-3 2007
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Oct 25th 2007
What We Learned From The Party Congress
The Chinese Communist Party’s 17th Congress has concluded and the Politburo stocked with a new generation of leaders who will take over from the Hu Jintao / Wen Jiabao administration in 2012/2013. We advise readers to forget what they read in the press about the horse-races among various interchangeable commissars. The course of the ship of state is fairly well set regardless of where any particular deckhand gets assigned. We also counsel...
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Gavekal Research
Pierre Gave
Oct 18th 2007
How Long Will HK Small Caps Underperform?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-18.You can download it here: HowLongWillHKSmallCapsUnderperform.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Pierre Gave, Joyce Poon, Research Team
Oct 05th 2007
Strategy Review
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-05.You can download it here: StrategyReview.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Sep 27th 2007
Chinese Inflation (II): The Facts, Or As Close As We Can Get To Them
Our previous note introduced our main ideas about Chinese inflation. Today we do our best to justify our cyclical views with data. Data problems aside, the key points are:
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Sep 26th 2007
A Dummy's Guide to Chinese Inflation
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-26.You can download it here: ADummysGuidetoChineseInflation.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Sep 25th 2007
Chinese Inflation (I): A Dummy's Guide
Inflation is the risk that looms over every fast-growing economy. With China’s CPI having surged from 2.2% in January to 6.5% in August, it seems that this risk has finally materialized and that the five-year party of double-digit GDP growth and no inflation is finally over. Or is it?
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Sep 24th 2007
China's Runaway Train
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-24.You can download it here: ChinasRunawayTrain.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Francesco Sisci
Sep 05th 2007
From Taxation To Representation
China’s authoritarian state has long had a pact of “no taxation, no representation” with its middle class. Unfortunately, this pact cannot last. To pay for a welfare system that can sustain domestic demand, the tax take must rise. Most of that increase will be paid by the private sector, which will create demands for greater accountability.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
China Economic Quarterly September 2007 - Health care
China Economic Quarterly Q3 2007: Health care
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
Health care survey
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-01.You can download it here: 0365_ceq2007q3_02healthcare.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Economy
CEQ Q3 2007: Economy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Get the problem straight
CEQ Q3 2007: Get the problem straight
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Primary care
CEQ Q3 2007: Primary care
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Health care finance
CEQ Q3 2007: Health care finance
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Pharmaceuticals
CEQ Q3 2007: Pharmaceuticals
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - From Taxation To Representation
We often think of democracy in terms of procedures (elections) or ideals (liberty). But really democracy is something more practical: a way of managing clashes of interests. The need for democracy becomes increasingly apparent when the number of powerful interest groups multiplies, and in particular when the state’s tax demands on these groups increase and demands for accountability in the use of these tax funds rise. In both England and France...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions I
CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions I
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions II
CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions II
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Eco-towns
CEQ Q3 2007: Eco-towns
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 30th 2007
Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - When The Facts Change
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-30.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBookWhenTheFactsChange.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 28th 2007
Another Reason We Remain Bullish on Asian Equities
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-28.You can download it here: AnotherReasonWeRemainBullishonAsianEquities.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 23rd 2007
A Stake Through the Heart of China Sceptics
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-23.You can download it here: AStakeThroughtheHeartofChinaSceptics.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 20th 2007
Four Lessons From Toxic Exports
Last week was a bad one for China Inc., which used to be known as the world’s biggest maker of cheap stuff and is now known as the world’s biggest maker of cheap and dangerous stuff. Yet the real lesson that we should take away from the spate of toxic Chinese exports is that the globalization of production chains calls for smarter regulation in rich countries.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 17th 2007
The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-17.You can download it here: TheIncredibleShrinkingFXFund.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 16th 2007
The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund
It is time to calm down about China’s State Investment Co. (SIC), which made its debut this spring with a ballyhooed US$3bn pre-IPO investment in US private equity firm Blackstone. The fund’s main initial purpose seems to be to act as a holding company for the government’s investments in the domestic financial sector. By the end of this year these investments will have consumed nearly two-thirds of SIC’s initial US$200bn funding, leaving a...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jul 27th 2007
The Changing Liquidity Environment
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-27.You can download it here: TheChangingLiquidityEnvironment.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jul 20th 2007
Three Flavors of Protectionism
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-20.You can download it here: ThreeFlavorsofProtectionism.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Jul 19th 2007
China Insight - China's economic performance H1 2007
China's economic performance H1 2007
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Jul 18th 2007
Three Flavors Of Protectionism
China’s economy now depends on external demand to a degree unprecedented in the past three decades. Does this dependence create vulnerability to protectionism in key markets, especially the US? Not really. Despite trade’s increased importance, the Chinese economy is driven, as it always has been, mainly by domestic factors. Moreover the constituencies for traditional protectionism of goods are slowly dying off in all the advanced economies. This...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jun 21st 2007
A New Kind of Protectionism
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ANewKindofProtectionism1.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jun 21st 2007
China's Equity Bubble is Not Retail Driven
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ChinasEquityBubbleisNotRetailDriven.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave
Jun 13th 2007
A Brief Review of Our Internal Discussions
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-13.You can download it here: ABriefReviewofOurInternalDiscussions.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
China Economic Quarterly June 2007 - Dragon abroad
China Economic Quarterly Q2 2007: Dragon abroad
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Economy
CEQ Q2 2007: Economy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Foreign policy
CEQ Q2 2007: Foreign policy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Africa
CEQ Q2 2007: Africa
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Russia
CEQ Q2 2007: Russia
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Latin America
CEQ Q2 2007: Latin America
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Mexico
CEQ Q2 2007: Mexico
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Retail
CEQ Q2 2007: Retail
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - House prices
CEQ Q2 2007: House prices
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Enterprise income tax
CEQ Q2 2007: Enterprise income tax
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