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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund

    It is time to calm down about China’s State Investment Co. (SIC), which made its debut this spring with a ballyhooed US$3bn pre-IPO investment in US private equity firm Blackstone. The fund’s main initial purpose seems to be to act as a holding company for the government’s investments in the domestic financial sector. By the end of this year these investments will have consumed nearly two-thirds of SIC’s initial US$200bn funding, leaving a...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Changing Liquidity Environment

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-27.You can download it here: TheChangingLiquidityEnvironment.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Three Flavors of Protectionism

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-20.You can download it here: ThreeFlavorsofProtectionism.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China's economic performance H1 2007

    China's economic performance H1 2007

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Three Flavors Of Protectionism

    China’s economy now depends on external demand to a degree unprecedented in the past three decades. Does this dependence create vulnerability to protectionism in key markets, especially the US? Not really. Despite trade’s increased importance, the Chinese economy is driven, as it always has been, mainly by domestic factors. Moreover the constituencies for traditional protectionism of goods are slowly dying off in all the advanced economies. This...

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    Gavekal Research

    A New Kind of Protectionism

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ANewKindofProtectionism1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Equity Bubble is Not Retail Driven

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ChinasEquityBubbleisNotRetailDriven.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Brief Review of Our Internal Discussions

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-13.You can download it here: ABriefReviewofOurInternalDiscussions.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2007 - Dragon abroad

    China Economic Quarterly Q2 2007: Dragon abroad

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q2 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Foreign policy

    CEQ Q2 2007: Foreign policy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Africa

    CEQ Q2 2007: Africa

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Russia

    CEQ Q2 2007: Russia

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Latin America

    CEQ Q2 2007: Latin America

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Mexico

    CEQ Q2 2007: Mexico

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Retail

    CEQ Q2 2007: Retail

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - House prices

    CEQ Q2 2007: House prices

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Enterprise income tax

    CEQ Q2 2007: Enterprise income tax

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    Gavekal Research

    China & Its Growing Navy

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-01.You can download it here: China&ItsGrowingNavy.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Matador Meets Raging Bull

    On the night of May 29, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a 20 basis-point increase in the transaction tax on stock sales (from 10 to 30 bp). This prompted a 6.5 percent drop in the Shanghai Composite index the next day, the biggest one-day fall since a 9-percent sell-off on February 27. Is the government finally getting serious about preventing a stock-market bubble? We believe so.

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    Gavekal Research

    Matador Meets Raging Bull

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-30.You can download it here: MatadorMeetsRagingBull1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Importance of China's Financial Reforms

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-21.You can download it here: TheImportanceofChinasFinancialReforms.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 2Q07 - So What Now?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-17.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook-2Q07-SoWhatNow.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Joys of Golden Week

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-07.You can download it here: TheJoysofGoldenWeek1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Part 2: So What Should We Worry About?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-02.You can download it here: Part2SoWhatShouldWeWorryAbout1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - Chinese consumption: miracle or myth?

    Consumption: a Chinese puzzle

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    Gavekal Research

    China's economic perfomance Q1 2007

    China's economic performance Q1 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    The third wave (NPC roundup part 2)

    NPC roundup part II

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    Gavekal Research

    China Raises Reserve Requirements Again

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaRaisesReserveRequirementsAgain.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Money Flows Back to HK

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-04-11.You can download it here: MoneyFlowsBacktoHK.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - Hors d'oeuvres from Chef Wen (NPC roundup part 1)

    NPC roundup part 1

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Think About The Renminbi

    Twice in the last six months we have been treated to “renminbi acceleration” stories, with analysts extrapolating from short-term increases in the rate of RMB appreciation to predict a rise in the RMB/USD rate of 6-10% this year. We give here a brief explanation of why you should ignore all such stories – or at best treat them as short-term, rather than long-term trading opportunities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Food Prices & Asian Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-03-23.You can download it here: FoodPrices&AsianInflation.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Growth Drivers

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-03-14.You can download it here: ChinasGrowthDrivers.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Chinese Puzzle

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-03-13.You can download it here: AChinesePuzzle.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2007 - Politics

    China Economic Quarterly Q1 2007: Politics

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q1 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Governance

    CEQ Q1 2007: Governance

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Politics

    CEQ Q1 2007: Politics

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Politics and business

    CEQ Q1 2007: Politics and business

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Railways

    CEQ Q1 2007: Railways

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Financial services

    CEQ Q1 2007: Financial services

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Family planning

    CEQ Q1 2007: Family planning

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Taxes

    CEQ Q1 2007: Taxes

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Consumption: A Chinese Puzzle

    Everyone wants to know about the Chinese consumption story. We have spent much of the past two months digging into it and can report that:

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China's economic performance 2006

    Economic performance 2006

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    Gavekal Research

    Risk 3 - Asian Central Bankers Change Their Policies?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-01-26.You can download it here: Risk3-AsianCentralBankersChangeTheirPolicies.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Financial Reform: Full Speed Ahead

    Do not be deceived by the bland rhetoric emanating from last weekend’s Central Financial Work Conference. Behind the scenes an enormous amount of work has been done to pave the way for wide-reaching financial sector reforms encompassing the banks, capital markets, domestic monetary policy, exchange-rate policy, and reserves management, many of which will be rolled out in the next 6-9 months.

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    Gavekal Research

    China in 2007: More Of the Same

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-01-22.You can download it here: Chinain2007MoreOftheSame.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China market outlook 2007

    China market outlook 2007

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