E.g., 03-12-2020
E.g., 03-12-2020
We have found 3776 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - The Price Of Reform Without Openness

    For years, increased openness was the companion of reform. Xi Jinping believes openness is dispensable, and is clamping down on the internet, academia and civil society. His program may work, but bodes ill for the hope that China can become an innovation hub.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - China's Climate-Change Turnaround

    China was blamed for the failure of the last big climate-change talks, in Copenhagen in 2009. Will it be able to take credit for the success of the next round, in Paris this year?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - How China Will Gain From Lower Oil Prices

    China has surpassed the US as the world’s biggest oil importer. The plunge in crude prices gives it new leverage in its quest to diversify its sources of supply.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - The Great Gas Price Conundrum

    For years, China’s problem has been finding enough new supplies of natural gas to satisfy its voracious demand. Now, the critical issue is to get prices right.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - King Coal's Long, Slow Decline

    Just a few years ago, the notion that China’s coal use might soon stop growing was laughable. Now it seems likely that peak coal demand is imminent.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2015 - When Realism Bleeds Into Paranoia

    The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower by Michael Pillsbury (Henry Holt, 2015)

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Energy And Climate Change

    This issue of the CEQ explores the dramatic and sometimes contradictory changes in China's energy picture. China is now the world's biggest importer of oil and by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. But the economic slowdown and pollution reduction policies are also starting to bite, sharply curbing growth in energy consumption.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The New Normal Will Not Be 7% Growth

    How far have China’s famously growth-obsessed leaders really dialed back their growth expectations? We fear not quite enough. China has given up on pursuing 10% growth, but still wants to keep growth of at least 7%. We do not think this is possible, for at least three reasons: history, housing and leverage.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Oil Bubble Implosion

    Since the late 1980s, oil prices have only collapsed by -50% or more over a six month period on two occasions: during the 2008 crisis and in the period since last August. In itself, this begs some interesting questions: does the sudden drop in the WTI and Brent price mean that the world economy is falling apart? Or that oil is set to bounce back? Or finally, that oil was in a bubble which has now imploded? At this juncture, the first option...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investing Along The New Silk Road

    In China, political slogans matter. They help to set the agenda, acting as political weather vanes. In recent months, “One Belt, One Road” has become a signature slogan of Xi Jinping’s administration. A contraction of “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” “One Belt, One Road” describes Beijing’s policy of financing and building transport infrastructure across Eurasia, the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean—aka the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (March 2015)

    Our latest monthly report shows that the modest recovery in growth indicators, which started last month, has continued. Since central banks are engaged in aggressive easing action on a number of fronts, it would be surprising if this improvement does not continue. In addition, our velocity indicator has rallied and hovers at a six month high, which mirrors the low level of the VIX index. Such readings point to a “risk-on” environment, but we...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    From Managing Growth To Managing Debt

    China’s central bank has announced another interest-rate cut—but how many more is it prepared to deliver? The latest move reduced benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25bp, after last November’s 40bp cut, a response to the growing pressure to ease the financial strain on companies from falling prices and weak growth. Indeed, we think monetary policy decisions in China are increasingly driven not just by the classic issues of growth and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (25 February): Global Property Wrap

    Overview: Property gets a bad rap from macro-economists as an “unproductive” asset. This mistakes its true value in modern economies, argues Anatole Kaletsky. United States: Despite recent soft housing data, the US housing market is ready to rip, say Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian. Europe: Francois Chauchat argues that Europe’s housing market may have entered a gently rising cycle for the first time since 2007. China: Property sales have picked...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: The Importance Of Property

    Property, both residential and commercial, is the world’s oldest investment and, in the long run, the most reliable and profitable store of economic value. Like the world’s oldest profession, however, it operates in the financial shadows. Property lacks the transparency of mainstream asset classes such as equities, bonds and currencies, with no completely objective price benchmarks to measure returns reliably even in sophisticated markets such...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Property's Supply-Side Correction Continues

    Over the past few months, the long-running decline in China’s housing sales has clearly bottomed and started to improve. December’s sales decline was just 4% YoY, compared to the 16% drop in July. But while this kind of improvement in previous cycles would have translated into a similar turnaround in construction activity, that has not been forthcoming this time.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Hong Kong's Pro-Cyclical Property Roller Coaster

    Nowhere is the US Federal Reserve’s eventual decision to raise interest rates awaited with greater trepidation than in Hong Kong’s property market. The territory’s currency board link to the US dollar means that Hong Kong had no choice but to import US interest rates when the Fed cut its own benchmark short term rate to zero at the end of 2008. With safe haven funds flooding into the city’s financial system, Hong Kong banks cut their residential...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Oil Insecurity Is Not Going Away

    For the world’s second-largest buyer of crude oil, the collapse in oil prices is a great bargain: the import bill for the 6mn barrels of oil shipped to China every day has halved in the space of a few months. But does now-cheap oil mean that the billions of dollars China spent buying oil assets abroad, or on loans to friendly governments of oil-producing countries, have been a waste? We doubt China’s policymakers are losing much sleep over this...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Sheep In Goat’s Clothing

    In the West, ‘sorting the sheep from the goats’ is a common metaphor for separating the good from the bad. The Chinese language, however, does not differentiate between the two species. So as the year of the sheep (or goat) approaches, it is perhaps understandable if some investors are asking which sort of beast China’s offshore dim sum bond market represents. With China’s growth slowing, with the renminbi down -2.3% against the US dollar in the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can The New Silk Road Revive China’s Exports?

    The various New Silk Road initiatives add up to one of the biggest and most elaborate export-promotion plans in history. Yet even this new brand of checkbook diplomacy may struggle to reverse the global economic forces that have been weighing on Chinese exports.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (11 February): The Earnings Squeeze

    Overview: Charles contrasts US companies' strong accounting profits with the less impressive numbers reported in the national accounts and asks some hard questions. United States: The latest earnings season revealed a tale of two markets with multinationals and energy firms lagging while domestics surge ahead. Will and KX ask whether this can last. Europe: François argues that if eurozone GDP growth picks up to the degree that the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Will The Middle-Class Consumer Please Stand Up?

    The big beneficiaries of China’s tight job market have been lower-income rural migrant workers. This is no bad thing, but these households account for a very small share of total consumption. The real drivers of consumer spending in China, as elsewhere, are the middle classes—and their income growth has been slowing.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China: More Pain Than Gain

    China is in for a rough year. The economy is in its most fragile state since 1998, at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of just 6.1% in the last quarter of 2014, and most key indicators suggest that the first half of 2015 is unlikely to be much better. Industrial profits are weakening sharply, which is likely to dampen wage growth and consumption—the two bright spots over the last couple...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    More Pain Than Gain

    China is in for a rough year. The economy is in its most fragile state since 1998, at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of just 6.1% in the last quarter of 2014, and most key indicators suggest that the first half of 2015 is unlikely to be much better. Industrial profits are weakening sharply, which is likely to dampen wage growth and consumption—the two bright spots over the last couple...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Big Dark Cloud, Small Silver Lining

    With commodity prices collapsing, the profits of China’s industrial sector are in free-fall (see [China] Profits Under Pressure). Since heavy industrial corporations make up a sizable proportion of China’s publicly-traded sector, this is bad news for listed company earnings. State-owned banks, which make up another large portion of China’s stock market indexes, also face earnings pressure as expected interest rate cuts hurt their margins and bad...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Peak Coal Is Nigh

    Here’s some good news for China’s smoggy skies: the nation’s consumption of coal fell outright in 2014, for the first time since 1998. This decline—the result of a severe downturn in the most energy-intensive industries—has upended some long-held assumptions about China’s future trajectory of energy use. Last year’s unexpected combination of 7.4% GDP growth and just 2.2% growth in energy consumption means it is now very likely that China is...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why RMB Stability Vs The US$ Matters

    In China’s onshore market the renminbi is trading within a whisker of the weak side of its permitted trading band against the US dollar. Meanwhile in the offshore market the renminbi hit a two year low last Friday. Against the backdrop of a strong US dollar—in trade-weighted terms the US currency rose 9% over the three months to the end of January—these moves have prompted a number of clients to ask whether Beijing is about to steer a...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Profits Under Pressure

    China looks like it should be a winner from falling commodity prices, as it is a large importer of raw materials. Unfortunately, the truth is almost exactly the opposite: lower commodity prices mean that its own energy, mining and metals firms are suffering. Add in the construction slump, and 2015 is shaping up to be a horrible year for industry.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Encouraging Currency Stability

    Three months ago to the day, the US Federal Reserve ended its outright purchases of treasuries. Three months before that, the ECB instituted negative interest rates. And whether by coincidence or causation, most commodity prices chose the past six months to unravel. The combination of these events has led to some sharp exchange rate moves. Over the past three months, commodity currencies have been taken to the woodshed: the Russian ruble is down...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (28 January): In Central Banks We Trust

    Overview: When central banks led a war on inflation in the late 1970s and 80s they kept on fighting long after the enemy was beaten into submission. They are likely to take the same approach of using overwhelming force in today’s fight against deflation, says Anatole. United States: The Swiss may have given forward guidance a bad name, but the Fed should be taken at its word, argues Will Denyer. Unlike Anatole, he thinks that interest rate...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Case For A Real Chinese Bull Market

    This report makes the case for a secular improvement in returns from Chinese equities. It does so by a political economy analysis of long-run equity market performance in the three East Asian developmental success stories most akin to China: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The basic argument is that when a high-growth economy shifts from policies of “financial repression” to a more liberalized financial system, a sustained period of improved...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equities: A Guide For The Perplexed

    The 60% rally in China’s main onshore stock market was clearly one of the big stories of 2014. Whether this bull market can continue is obviously one of the big questions for 2015. As attentive readers will have noticed, we at Gavekal have formed a wide range of views on this subject. This note is an effort to summarize and, we hope, clarify our various opinions.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: The PBOC Loves To Be Feared

    With consumer inflation modest, producer prices falling, and many other central banks in easing mode, the People’s Bank of China looks set to cut interest rates further this year following last November’s reduction (see Five Macro Questions For 2015). At the same time the central bank also seems intent on maintaining the pace of financial reform after last year’s moves to widen the renminbi’s permitted trading band and liberalize deposit rates...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Inevitable Rise Of Fiscal Deficits

    China is now pushing forward the biggest reforms to its fiscal system in 20 years.. These important changes will however have one major and rather counter-intuitive consequence: the official government budget deficit will have to get much larger. In China’s case, a wider budget deficit will be evidence of progress not regress.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    In China, Bad News Is Just Bad

    It never rains but it pours. China’s official statisticians announced today that the economy’s annual growth slowed to 7.4% in 2014, the slowest rate in 24 years. Their news came hard on the heels of yesterday’s -7.7% slump in the domestic A-share market, triggered by a tightening in the regulations governing margin trading. That intervention came out of the blue, although the regulators are clearly concerned by the growth of illicit margin...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where's The Arbitrage In China Shares?

    The rally in China’s domestic equity market over the last two months has been spectacular; the run-up in Hong Kong’s offshore market less so. While the Shanghai composite index has shot up 33% since late November, the MSCI China index—composed of mainland businesses listed in Hong Kong—has climbed a relatively feeble 5%. As a result, onshore and offshore valuations have diverged markedly, defying expectations that November’s launch of a channel...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: A Mixed Bag Of Blessings

    Most researchers have rightly argued that China will on balance benefit from US$50 a barrel oil since it is a large net-importer of the stuff. The standard story runs that the trade surplus should swell and consumers can use their effective tax cut to buy other items. We have addressed the regional impact of cheaper oil, but on the whole the negative consequences have gotten less attention (see The Losers From Lower Energy Prices). This is a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Still Aiming For The Top

    China has long criticized the dominant role of the US, arguing instead for a “multipolar” world. But a recent and surprisingly dovish speech by Vice Premier Wang Yang has stirred up a debate about whether Beijing’s foreign policy is becoming more accommodative. So is China really willing to accept a US-led international order? Don’t believe it for a moment.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Discrimination Pays In The Emerging Markets

    Viewed as a single asset class, the emerging markets had a tough time of it in 2014. A world characterized by weak global demand, soft commodity prices and a stronger US currency left US dollar-reliant emerging economies exposed and vulnerable. Today, as we roll into 2015, emerging markets are still facing the same headwinds. The US will struggle to support global growth single-handedly and the oil price is unlikely to stage a meaningful...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Stay Long The Renminbi

    With the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates, Europe seemingly about to embrace quantitative easing, and Japan’s economy still in the doldrums, the US dollar’s rise looks unstoppable. But for investors seeking a longer term store of value, the Chinese renminbi is a surer bet.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2015

    For our first China research piece in the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will the pace of economic reform accelerate? Will monetary policy keep getting looser? Will the property market recover convincingly? Can corporate profits hold up? Is consumer spending in trouble?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Long Shadow Of The Commodity Bust

    The commodity boom of the past decade had all the hallmarks of a typical bubble: massive retail participation (through ETFs, mutual funds etc…), large pension fund involvement, a widespread belief that ‘this time, things were different’ and that a ‘commodity super-cycle’ was unfolding. But like all bubbles, this one too has come to an end. There were plenty of potential triggers in the shape of (i) the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop printing...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Easing Policy In The New Normal

    China’s government has moved to more decisively support growth by cutting interest rates. But at the same time the leadership is emphasizing that China also faces “new normal” of slower growth. How will the latest move to easier policy play out in this new context? We think lower rates will offer some support to the real economy, but that the upturn in the credit cycle will be modest by recent standards. In the latest installment of our China...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beijing Will Call The Shots In Resource Sector Battle Royal

    In October the world’s fourth largest mining company, Glencore, launched an audacious merger bid for the world’s second biggest miner, Rio Tinto. The approach was rebuffed, and United Kingdom takeover rules—both companies have London listings—forbid Glencore from making any further overtures for the following six months. Yet few in the mining business believe that is the end of the story. Glencore’s chief executive officer Ivan Glasenberg has...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Deflation: Local Or Global?

    Another month, another fall in Chinese producer prices. Last week’s release of inflation data showed that consumer-price inflation is still low at 1.4%, and producer prices are still dropping, by 2.7%. The producer-price index (PPI) has now fallen every month since March 2012. This extended spell of falling prices is giving rise to worries that China’s deflationary pressures could spread beyond its borders, weighing down attempts by Europe,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China And North Asia’s Deflation Syndrome

    Northeast Asian economies are “fated” to experience a structural deflation as they mature due to the nature of their industrialization model. Such economic determinism means that China faces an imminent risk of structural deflation similar to that experienced by Taiwan 20 years ago. In this piece Joyce argues that the way Northeast Asian economies protect their financial systems helps them avoid acute financial crises, but ensures a date with...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (10 December): Contrarian Ideas For 2015

    Overview: Anatole Kaletsky looks at the struggle between the Middle-East sheiks and US oil producers and concludes that oil is about to finally conform to standard economic theory. One unintended consequence may be the effective liquidation of western oil majors. United States: Will Denyer considers the dramatic scaling back of the US shale oil sector but argues that US capital spending should do just fine next year. Europe: Francois Chauchat...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China A-Shares: Beyond The Leverage

    It is no secret that China’s A-share market has risen as far and as fast as it has over the last few weeks because stock prices have been propelled by an explosion in margin trading and soaring interest in index futures. But although rising leverage can add enormously to the momentum of a stock market rally to create a runaway snowball effect, leverage by itself is not enough to set the ball rolling in the first place. At least some of the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar December 2014 - Charles, Francois, Tom & Will

    We held our winter seminar in New York on December 5 with Charles, Francois, Tom and Will offering their views of the global economic pulse and recent market developments.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: No One Expects Chinese Inflation

    Not many prices are rising in China these days. Core consumer-price inflation has averaged less than 2% over the past two years. The producer price index has been falling for nearly three years. Prices of coal, iron ore and now oil, once bolstered by Chinese demand, are in retreat globally. Housing prices are in their longest correction since 2008.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Dream Of Asian Empire

    After years of passive diplomacy, China is now making it clear that it wants to play a substantive role on the global stage. In foreign policy, Xi Jinping’s “Chinese dream” means restoring China’s historical dominance in Asia. China is serious about winning friends and helping its neighbors to benefit from its rise, but its own interests come first: it wants to generate new trade networks, open up transit routes for its exports, and develop its...

    1
Show me: results