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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Leverage-Driven Rally

    China’s domestic “A-share” market is on steroids. The Shanghai Composite index has now risen by 42% since the middle of the year, and has shot up by 18% just in the nine trading days since the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates. Sure, the rate cut provided a fillip to sentiment, yet even so the current rally looks highly unusual. Over the last three years, the A-share market has broadly mirrored China’s economic cycle, rising...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China's Leverage-Driven Rally

    China’s domestic ‘A-share’ market is on steroids. The Shanghai composite index has now risen by 38% since the middle of the year, and has shot up by 15% just in the eight trading days since the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates. Sure, the rate cut provided a fillip to sentiment, yet even so the current rally looks highly unusual. Over the last three years, the A-share market has broadly mirrored China’s economic cycle, rising...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Burning Questions For 2015

    With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (December 2014)

    This month saw our main growth indicator drop into negative territory for the first time in more than a year. The key drags were the commodity-related components and the underperformance of growth-sensitive stock markets such as South Korea and Sweden. The chief concern for markets is whether lower oil prices and the new monetary activism of the Bank of Japan and promises of action from the European Central bank can help reignite market momentum...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Xi Jinping Scorecard

    How is Xi Jinping doing? A year after the landmark Third Plenum at which China's leader laid out his vision for reforming China, this issue of the CEQ takes a close look at the progress of the reform program. Our expert contributors assess the achievements and the shortfalls, the winners and the losers.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dilemma Of Deposit Insurance

    After debating it for more than 20 years, China has begun the process of setting up a deposit-insurance system, which will give the government’s formal backing to most bank deposits. Deposit insurance is the conventional protection against financial crises in 112 countries: it shields households from the vagaries of financial markets, helps prevent bank runs and improves financial stability. But China’s different starting point means that it...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Better Class Of Bubble

    We never tire of pointing out that, when it comes to bubbles, no two bubbles are ever the same. Firstly, bubbles can bid up asset values because of their perceived ‘scarcity’ (typically land and real estate, but also tulips, or gold…) or because of their productivity (canals, railroads, telecom lines, energy…). This distinction matters because, in the first case, an economy is left with no more land (or gold, or tulips…) than at the outset. In...

    13
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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chartbook - Avoiding The Pitfalls Ahead

    Forces of creative destruction are building up in the world economy as never before. Several of Gavekal’s key indicators are signalling that we are moving into a mild deflationary boom, in which cheaper resources, lower technology costs—especially for robotics—and accelerating disintermediation—notably in the financial sector—all promise to act as game-changers over the coming years. Reliably picking winners in such disruptive times is difficult...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014

    China’s growth decelerates again. After a short mid-year recovery, China’s GDP growth slowed again to 7.3% in the third quarter. Senior leaders’ comments about the “new normal” for economic growth show a further slowdown is expected. The trade balance is solid, thanks to decent demand from the US and Europe and falling commodity prices. But consumption and income growth are starting to weaken.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Irresistible Advance Of The Private Sector

    Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, by Nicholas R. Lardy (Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2014)

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Socialist Rule Of Law, Hong Kong Democracy Movement

    So What Exactly Is 'Socialist Rule Of Law With Chinese Characteristics'?

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - The Market Is Open - Should You Buy?

    Foreigners can now invest in domestic Chinese shares through their Hong Kong brokers. Unfortunately, there are precious few reasons to buy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Quiet Empire Building Along The New Silk Road

    China is pursuing infrastructure diplomacy in Central Asia, and it wields a big checkbook. The recipients of its largesse have mixed feelings.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - End Of The Golden Age

    Xi Jinping’s reforms are clearly designed to benefit Chinese firms at the expense of their foreign competitors. Even so, foreign investment keeps pouring in.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - The Not So Grand Plan For Fixing State Enterprises

    China has launched a new round of state-owned enterprise reform, a welcome move after a decade of stasis. So far this reform is less a coherent plan than a collection of initiatives by officials and executives.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Squaring The Circle: How The Reforms Can Work

    China could keep economic growth running at 7% or morewith the right policy package. Xi Jinping’s blueprint gets fiscal reform right,but falls short in other areas.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Our Country, Your Problem

    Much commentary on China assumes that beneath its tough veneer the Party is fragile and walks on a knife-edge of popular discontent. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Great Policy Convergence

    Yesterday’s announcement that the European Central Bank is preparing to buy government bonds from the first quarter of next year is an event of historic importance. As the logical follow-up to Mario Draghi’s commitment to expand the ECB’s balance sheet by €1trn, yesterday’s statement by ECB vice-president Vitor Constâncio confirms beyond reasonable doubt that Europe is ready, at last, to implement full-blown quantitative easing, over-riding the...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review

    Is the latest downturn in China’s housing market just another cyclical correction, or the bursting of an unsustainable bubble? To cut through the confusion surrounding this key part of the economy, it is crucial to understand the fundamentals. In this chartbook, our annual review of the housing and construction market, Rosealea explains our outlook for the long-term prospects for housing demand in China; explores the implication of changing...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (26 November): Capital Spending In 2015

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