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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Productivity

    CEQ Q4 2007: Productivity

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Housing: A Room Of One's Own

    After several false starts in the early 1990s, China undertook a massive privatizationof its public housing stock in 1998, which was largely complete by the end of 2003.The impact of this reform on China’s subsequent economic development appearsto have been enormous. Enterprises received an immediate cash infusion and werefreed from the costly burden of building housing for their employees. Employees gotan implicit subsidy when they bought...

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    Gavekal Research

    Drivers and Opportunities Behind China's Growth

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-06.You can download it here: DriversandOpportunitiesBehindChinasGrowth.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 4Q07

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-04.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook-4Q071.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2007 Dec 3rd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-03.You can download it here: 0381_DragonWeek_071203.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Exports: The Icing On The Cake Gets Thinner

    For much of the past year we have reassured readers that China need not fear a slowdown or recession in the US economy. Now American recession fears are growing, and Chinese exports to the US are slowing sharply. Are we worried? Not really. Net exports, it is always worth remembering, are the icing on the Chinese economic cake. Depending on external demand, the layer of icing may be thicker or thinner. But the cake itself – whose size is...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Export Icing Gets Thinner

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-28.You can download it here: TheExportIcingGetsThinner.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2007 Nov 26th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-26.You can download it here: 0380_DragonWeek_071126.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Energy Inflation or Demand Deflation?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-21.You can download it here: EnergyInflationorDemandDeflation1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2007 Nov 19th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-19.You can download it here: 0379_DragonWeek_071119.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Accelerating Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-16.You can download it here: ChinasAcceleratingInflation.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Quarterly - Q4 2007

    China economic outlook: November 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    China Trade Review - November 2007

    China trade review - November 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    The Boring China Decouple Debate

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: TheBoringChinaDecoupleDebate.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    When Will the China Bubble Burst?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: WhenWilltheChinaBubbleBurst.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    What We Learned from the Party Congress

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-31.You can download it here: WhatWeLearnedfromthePartyCongress.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China's economic performance Q1-3 2007

    China's economic performance Q1-3 2007

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What We Learned From The Party Congress

    The Chinese Communist Party’s 17th Congress has concluded and the Politburo stocked with a new generation of leaders who will take over from the Hu Jintao / Wen Jiabao administration in 2012/2013. We advise readers to forget what they read in the press about the horse-races among various interchangeable commissars. The course of the ship of state is fairly well set regardless of where any particular deckhand gets assigned. We also counsel...

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    Gavekal Research

    How Long Will HK Small Caps Underperform?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-18.You can download it here: HowLongWillHKSmallCapsUnderperform.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Review

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-05.You can download it here: StrategyReview.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chinese Inflation (II): The Facts, Or As Close As We Can Get To Them

    Our previous note introduced our main ideas about Chinese inflation. Today we do our best to justify our cyclical views with data. Data problems aside, the key points are:

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    Gavekal Research

    A Dummy's Guide to Chinese Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-26.You can download it here: ADummysGuidetoChineseInflation.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chinese Inflation (I): A Dummy's Guide

    Inflation is the risk that looms over every fast-growing economy. With China’s CPI having surged from 2.2% in January to 6.5% in August, it seems that this risk has finally materialized and that the five-year party of double-digit GDP growth and no inflation is finally over. Or is it?

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Runaway Train

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-24.You can download it here: ChinasRunawayTrain.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Taxation To Representation

    China’s authoritarian state has long had a pact of “no taxation, no representation” with its middle class. Unfortunately, this pact cannot last. To pay for a welfare system that can sustain domestic demand, the tax take must rise. Most of that increase will be paid by the private sector, which will create demands for greater accountability.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly September 2007 - Health care

    China Economic Quarterly Q3 2007: Health care

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    Gavekal Research

    Health care survey

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-01.You can download it here: 0365_ceq2007q3_02healthcare.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q3 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Get the problem straight

    CEQ Q3 2007: Get the problem straight

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Primary care

    CEQ Q3 2007: Primary care

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Health care finance

    CEQ Q3 2007: Health care finance

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Pharmaceuticals

    CEQ Q3 2007: Pharmaceuticals

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - From Taxation To Representation

    We often think of democracy in terms of procedures (elections) or ideals (liberty). But really democracy is something more practical: a way of managing clashes of interests. The need for democracy becomes increasingly apparent when the number of powerful interest groups multiplies, and in particular when the state’s tax demands on these groups increase and demands for accountability in the use of these tax funds rise. In both England and France...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions I

    CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions I

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions II

    CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions II

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Eco-towns

    CEQ Q3 2007: Eco-towns

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - When The Facts Change

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-30.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBookWhenTheFactsChange.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Another Reason We Remain Bullish on Asian Equities

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-28.You can download it here: AnotherReasonWeRemainBullishonAsianEquities.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Stake Through the Heart of China Sceptics

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-23.You can download it here: AStakeThroughtheHeartofChinaSceptics.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Four Lessons From Toxic Exports

    Last week was a bad one for China Inc., which used to be known as the world’s biggest maker of cheap stuff and is now known as the world’s biggest maker of cheap and dangerous stuff. Yet the real lesson that we should take away from the spate of toxic Chinese exports is that the globalization of production chains calls for smarter regulation in rich countries.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-17.You can download it here: TheIncredibleShrinkingFXFund.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund

    It is time to calm down about China’s State Investment Co. (SIC), which made its debut this spring with a ballyhooed US$3bn pre-IPO investment in US private equity firm Blackstone. The fund’s main initial purpose seems to be to act as a holding company for the government’s investments in the domestic financial sector. By the end of this year these investments will have consumed nearly two-thirds of SIC’s initial US$200bn funding, leaving a...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Changing Liquidity Environment

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-27.You can download it here: TheChangingLiquidityEnvironment.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Three Flavors of Protectionism

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-20.You can download it here: ThreeFlavorsofProtectionism.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China's economic performance H1 2007

    China's economic performance H1 2007

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Three Flavors Of Protectionism

    China’s economy now depends on external demand to a degree unprecedented in the past three decades. Does this dependence create vulnerability to protectionism in key markets, especially the US? Not really. Despite trade’s increased importance, the Chinese economy is driven, as it always has been, mainly by domestic factors. Moreover the constituencies for traditional protectionism of goods are slowly dying off in all the advanced economies. This...

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    Gavekal Research

    A New Kind of Protectionism

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ANewKindofProtectionism1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Equity Bubble is Not Retail Driven

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ChinasEquityBubbleisNotRetailDriven.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Brief Review of Our Internal Discussions

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-13.You can download it here: ABriefReviewofOurInternalDiscussions.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2007 - Dragon abroad

    China Economic Quarterly Q2 2007: Dragon abroad

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q2 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Foreign policy

    CEQ Q2 2007: Foreign policy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Africa

    CEQ Q2 2007: Africa

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Russia

    CEQ Q2 2007: Russia

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Latin America

    CEQ Q2 2007: Latin America

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Mexico

    CEQ Q2 2007: Mexico

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Retail

    CEQ Q2 2007: Retail

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - House prices

    CEQ Q2 2007: House prices

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2007 - Enterprise income tax

    CEQ Q2 2007: Enterprise income tax

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    Gavekal Research

    China & Its Growing Navy

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-01.You can download it here: China&ItsGrowingNavy.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Matador Meets Raging Bull

    On the night of May 29, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a 20 basis-point increase in the transaction tax on stock sales (from 10 to 30 bp). This prompted a 6.5 percent drop in the Shanghai Composite index the next day, the biggest one-day fall since a 9-percent sell-off on February 27. Is the government finally getting serious about preventing a stock-market bubble? We believe so.

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    Gavekal Research

    Matador Meets Raging Bull

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-30.You can download it here: MatadorMeetsRagingBull1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Importance of China's Financial Reforms

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-21.You can download it here: TheImportanceofChinasFinancialReforms.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 2Q07 - So What Now?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-17.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook-2Q07-SoWhatNow.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Joys of Golden Week

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-07.You can download it here: TheJoysofGoldenWeek1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Part 2: So What Should We Worry About?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-05-02.You can download it here: Part2SoWhatShouldWeWorryAbout1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - Chinese consumption: miracle or myth?

    Consumption: a Chinese puzzle

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    Gavekal Research

    China's economic perfomance Q1 2007

    China's economic performance Q1 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    The third wave (NPC roundup part 2)

    NPC roundup part II

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    Gavekal Research

    China Raises Reserve Requirements Again

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaRaisesReserveRequirementsAgain.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Money Flows Back to HK

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-04-11.You can download it here: MoneyFlowsBacktoHK.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - Hors d'oeuvres from Chef Wen (NPC roundup part 1)

    NPC roundup part 1

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Think About The Renminbi

    Twice in the last six months we have been treated to “renminbi acceleration” stories, with analysts extrapolating from short-term increases in the rate of RMB appreciation to predict a rise in the RMB/USD rate of 6-10% this year. We give here a brief explanation of why you should ignore all such stories – or at best treat them as short-term, rather than long-term trading opportunities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Food Prices & Asian Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-03-23.You can download it here: FoodPrices&AsianInflation.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Growth Drivers

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-03-14.You can download it here: ChinasGrowthDrivers.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Chinese Puzzle

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-03-13.You can download it here: AChinesePuzzle.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2007 - Politics

    China Economic Quarterly Q1 2007: Politics

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q1 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Governance

    CEQ Q1 2007: Governance

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Politics

    CEQ Q1 2007: Politics

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Politics and business

    CEQ Q1 2007: Politics and business

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Railways

    CEQ Q1 2007: Railways

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Financial services

    CEQ Q1 2007: Financial services

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Family planning

    CEQ Q1 2007: Family planning

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2007 - Taxes

    CEQ Q1 2007: Taxes

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Consumption: A Chinese Puzzle

    Everyone wants to know about the Chinese consumption story. We have spent much of the past two months digging into it and can report that:

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China's economic performance 2006

    Economic performance 2006

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    Gavekal Research

    Risk 3 - Asian Central Bankers Change Their Policies?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-01-26.You can download it here: Risk3-AsianCentralBankersChangeTheirPolicies.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Financial Reform: Full Speed Ahead

    Do not be deceived by the bland rhetoric emanating from last weekend’s Central Financial Work Conference. Behind the scenes an enormous amount of work has been done to pave the way for wide-reaching financial sector reforms encompassing the banks, capital markets, domestic monetary policy, exchange-rate policy, and reserves management, many of which will be rolled out in the next 6-9 months.

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    Gavekal Research

    China in 2007: More Of the Same

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-01-22.You can download it here: Chinain2007MoreOftheSame.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China market outlook 2007

    China market outlook 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - Consuming China: pretty fictions, hard facts

    Consuming China: pretty fictions, hard facts

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2006 - China's energy story

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2006: China's energy story

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - Economic overview

    CEQ Q4 2006: Economic overview

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - China's energy story

    CEQ Q4 2006: China's energy story

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - When China is different

    CEQ Q4 2006: When China is different

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - Magic bullet?

    CEQ Q4 2006: Magic bullet?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - Still a great game

    CEQ Q4 2006: Still a great game

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - The bridge to sustainability

    CEQ Q4 2006: The bridge to sustainability

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2006 - With a huff and a puff

    CEQ Q4 2006: With a huff and a puff

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