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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 August 18th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-08-19.You can download it here: 0455_DragonWeek_0808181.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 August 18th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-08-18.You can download it here: 0455_DragonWeek_080818.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 August 4th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-08-04.You can download it here: 0454_DragonWeek_080804.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Macro Quarterly - Q3 2008

    China economic outlook: July 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Reviewing the US Growth Data

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-08-01.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyReviewingtheUSGrowthData.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Asia's Soft Landing, Despite Europe's Woes

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-31.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyAsiasSoftLandingDespiteEuropesWoes.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 July 28th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-28.You can download it here: 0453_DragonWeek_080728.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Taking a Page from the Hong Kong Playbook

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-28.You can download it here: TakingaPagefromtheHongKongPlaybook.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 July 22nd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-22.You can download it here: 0452_DragonWeek_080722.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Is China the Cause of the Materials Reversal?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-21.You can download it here: IsChinatheCauseoftheMaterialsReversal.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Get Ready For The Soft Landing

    There has been a lot of blather over the past few weeks about growth and inflation risks in China. Economists (the ones who grab the headlines anyway) seem about equally divided between those who fear an inflationary explosion - which can only be forestalled by an aggressive currency appreciation - and those who think growth is slowing so precipitously that the government will have to open the monetary taps in the second half of the year.

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Taking a Page from the Hong Kong Playbook

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-17.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyTakingaPagefromtheHongKongPlaybook2.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 July 14th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-14.You can download it here: 0450_DragonWeek_080714.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Asian Godfathers

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-14.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners09050510.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Will Beijing Crank Up the Market Ahead of the Olympics?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-11.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyWillBeijingCrankUptheMarketAheadoftheO.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 July 7th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-07-07.You can download it here: 0449_DragonWeek_080707.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 30th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-30.You can download it here: 0448_DragonWeek_080630.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Good & Bad in China

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-30.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyGoodBadinChina.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 24th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-24.You can download it here: DragonWeek_2008_0624.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - China's Good News

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-20.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyChinasGoodNews.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 16th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-16.You can download it here: 0446_DragonWeek_080616.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What, Me Worry? China's Oil Subsidies

    With the crude oil price nearing US$140 a barrel and little apparent prospect of relief, a lot of people are asking about the sustainability of China’s energy regime. China has the fiscal room to maintain refined oil subsidies for far longer than most other Asiancountries, and it will almost certainly do so. Systematic under-pricing of energy has played a role in China’s recent economic growth, but a far smaller one than generally recognized. So...

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia's Crowded Trades Unwind

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-13.You can download it here: AsiasCrowdedTradesUnwind.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia's Inflation Struggle

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-13.You can download it here: AsiasInflationStruggle.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A "Plan B" For Oil?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-12.You can download it here: APlanBForOil.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Construction Quarterly - Q2 2008

    China real estate and construction market review: June 2008

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Consuming China

    CEQ Q2 2008: Consuming China

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Energy

    CEQ Q2 2008: Energy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Markets

    CEQ Q2 2008: Markets

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - State-owned enterprises

    China Economic Quarterly Q2 2008: SOEs

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - SOE policy

    Since their low point in the mid-1990s, China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have made a stunning return to profitability. In the mid-1990s, industrial SOEs were losing almost as much money as they were making. At the low point in 1997, once all losses were set off against all profits, the entire state-owned industrial sector made total profits just below 0.6% of GDP. Since then the world has changed dramatically: in 2007, state industrial...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Economy

    CEQ Q2 2008: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Enterprise reform

    CEQ Q2 2008: Enterprise reform

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Efficiency

    CEQ Q2 2008: Efficiency

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - SOEs in pictures

    CEQ Q4 2008: SOEs in pictures

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Fiscal policy

    CEQ Q2 2008: Fiscal policy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Commercial banks and CIC

    CEQ Q2 2008: Commercial banks and CIC

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Books

    CEQ Q2 2008: Books

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2008 - Metals Man: Smelters Away

    China’s aluminium industry is a classic example of the law of unintended consequences. For a decade, economic planners issued policies designed to limit the growth of this energy-hogging industry. Yet paradoxically, these very policies spurred a round of technical innovation that led to an explosion of aluminium production, with the result that China is now far and away the world’s biggest producer of the metal. Beijing has changed its approach...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 9th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-09.You can download it here: 0444_DragonWeek_080609.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2008 - State-owned Enterprises

    A decade ago China’s state-owned enterprises threatenedthe entire economy. Today they are fantastically profitable andand moving aggressively into global markets. What happened? This issue of the China Economic Quarterly digs into the revival of China's state sector to find out how much has really changed, and why.

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Questions Plaguing China

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-03.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyQuestionsPlaguingChina.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 2nd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-02.You can download it here: 0428_DragonWeek_080602.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 27th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-30.You can download it here: 0427_DragonWeek_0805271.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 20th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-20.You can download it here: 0426_DragonWeek_0805201.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 20th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-20.You can download it here: 0426_DragonWeek_0805202.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Roadmap for Troubling Times--by Louis-Vincent Gave

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-20.You can download it here: ARoadmapforTroublingTimesbyLouisVincentGave.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 3Q08 - The Purpose of a Bear Market

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-15.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook3Q08ThePurposeofaBearMar1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 12th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-12.You can download it here: 0425_DragonWeek_080512.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Macro Quarterly - Q2 2008

    China economic outlook: June 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    New Valuation Tools

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-06.You can download it here: NewValuationTools1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Reasons the Market Feels Good About Taiwan

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-01.You can download it here: ReasonstheMarketFeelsGoodAboutTaiwan.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Dragonomics office closure

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-30.You can download it here: Holiday closure.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 28th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-28.You can download it here: 0424_DragonWeek_080428.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Pathological Stock Market

    Thanks to the ministrations of the China Stockmarket Rah-rah Clique (CSRC, formerly the China Securities Regulatory Commission), A-shares are hot again. Foreign investors are queuing up to get hold of the US$20bn in additional allocations for qualified foreign institutional investors which were approved for release last December. The purpose of this note is to let foreigners know what they are getting into

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    Gavekal Research

    Watch Out for the Container Squeeze

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-25.You can download it here: WatchOurfortheContainerSqueeze.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 21st

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-21.You can download it here: 0422_DragonWeek_080421.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 16th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-16.You can download it here: 0421_DragonWeek_080416.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 14th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-14.You can download it here: 0420_DragonWeek_080414.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China: Up, Down or Sideways?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaUpDownorSideways.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China: Up, Down or Sideways?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaUpDownorSideways1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 8th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-08.You can download it here: 0419_DragonWeek_080408.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 2nd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-02.You can download it here: 0418_DragonWeek_080402.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The End Of The Anti-gravity Economy

    Everybody in China is thinking about inflation, and there are two stories to choose from. Story number one (which is the position of the Chinese government but also has some support from respectable independent economists) is that the high inflation of the past six months is mainly a temporary phenomenon, caused by supply shocks that have driven up the prices of a handful of common food items, notably pork, eggs and edible oil. Once these supply...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 24th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-24.You can download it here: 0416_DragonWeek_0803242.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Construction Quarterly - Q1 2008

    China real estate and construction market review: March 2008

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 18th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-18.You can download it here: 0415_DragonWeek_080318.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Winter Storms And The Coal Market

    Power shortages are back. After nearly three years during which power supply seemed to keep up with demand, 17 provinces are now facing electricity shortfalls. One cannot blame the problem on a failure to invest in new power generation capacity. In 2007, Chinese companies commissioned 91 gigawatts in net new generating capacity, more than the total installed capacity of the United Kingdom. In 2006 they installed 106 GW – nearly France’s entire...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 10

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-10.You can download it here: 0413_DragonWeek_0803101.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Five Infrastucture Investment Phases

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-10.You can download it here: THeFIveInfrastuctureInvestmentPhases.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - China and the US

    CEQ Q1 2008: China and the US

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Economy

    CEQ Q1 2008: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2008 - China and the US

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2008: China and the US

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Balance of Power

    CEQ Q1 2008: Balance of power

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Sino-US psychology

    CEQ Q1 2008: Sino-US psychology

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - China and the world

    CEQ Q1 2008: China and the world

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Cement

    CEQ Q1 2008: Cement

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Telecoms

    CEQ Q1 2008: Telecoms

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Books: Six of the best - and worst

    CEQ Q1 2008: Books

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    Gavekal Research

    Dragonomics Book Review - China Into the Future -

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners09050512.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Thursday March 6th, 2008

    This document is part of our old archive. You can download it by clicking the PDF button above.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 4

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-04.You can download it here: 0403_DragonWeek_0803041.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Feb 26

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-26.You can download it here: 0402_Dragonweek_080226.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Squeeze

    In our last note we argued, at perhaps excessive length, that China is undergoing a secular shift from an era in which structural economic reform was the paramount objective to one in which governance reform is the priority. In this note we will try to tease out some of the long-run economic and investment consequences of this shift. The central case is that over the next five or ten years we will see a “long squeeze” during which capital and...

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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Coming Out Party & Inventories

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-22.You can download it here: ChinasComingOutPartyInventories1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Trade Review - February 2008

    China trade review - February 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    2Q08 - Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: Picking-Up the Pieces From the Credit Crunch

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-15.You can download it here: 2Q08QuarterlyStrategyChartBookPickingUpthePiecesFr.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Seismic Shift: Economics Gives Way To Politics

    The year of the rat, which China has just entered, marks the beginning of the 12-year zodiac cycle. In that spirit we step back from the everyday ups and downs of the economic cycle to argue that China’s political economy is in the midst of an important long-run transition. Today’s note analyzes the nature of that transition. We apologize in advance for the length and philosophical nature of this tome, and for the relative absence of pictures. A...

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    Gavekal Research

    Macro Quarterly - Q1 2008

    China economic outlook: Febuary 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    The Baltic Roller-Coaster

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-11.You can download it here: TheBalticRollerCoaster.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Feb 4

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-04.You can download it here: 0399_DragonWeek_080204.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Circle of Manipulation Comes to an End

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-04.You can download it here: TheCircleofManipulationComestoanEnd1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek Extra: China's Economic Performance 2007

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-01-24.You can download it here: 0397_DragonWeek_080124.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Purchases a 50% Stake in Dragonomics

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-01-11.You can download it here: GaveKalPurchasesa50StakeinDragonomics.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Review of the Latest Chinese Policy Moves

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-14.You can download it here: AReviewoftheLatestChinesePolicyMoves1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Real Estate and Construction Quarterly Outlook - 2007 Q4

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-12.You can download it here: 02_ConstructionRealEstate_2007q4.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2007 - Media China

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2007: Media China

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q4 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Film and TV

    CEQ Q4 2007: Film and TV

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Online media

    CEQ Q4 2007: Online media

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