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E.g., 21-10-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    France Under Attack

    In the worst days of the Northern Ireland troubles, British policymakers spoke of a “tolerable level of violence”. It was taken for granted that senseless and murderous acts would be committed, but what mattered was ensuring that these did not “get out of hand”.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Brexit: A Blunder To Rank With The Boston Tea Party

    Ask any divorced couple whether their relationship would have been different had they never married. Actually, don’t bother asking, since the answer is obvious. Strangely, most conservative politicians do not seem to understand this—and neither do 48% of British voters. That is the number, according to recent opinion polls, who want a divorce from the European Union.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A Happy Apologist

    At Gavekal the conversation with clients never stops and from time to time we like to offer up a taste of debates that strike us as interesting. Louis got into just such a discussion earlier this week with one of our smarter, free-market embracing US clients. The topic of discussion was China and why Louis is such an apologist for the Chinese Communist Party when he clearly has little time for governments meddling with markets elsewhere?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Drifting In The Mid-Atlantic

    On the one hand the United Kingdom looks to have similar dynamics to recovering European economies, where growth is picking up nicely even though deflationary pressure still looms—Britain’s headline CPI rate stands at -0.1% and real rates have swung positive from a low of -4.7%. Such a cautious view explains why the Bank of England offered a report last week whose dovishness surprised some. Yet, on the other hand mid-Atlantic Britain in many...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Catastrophe Of Negative Rates

    Yesterday both Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan and Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann broke ranks, daring to suggest that ultra-low interest rates may not be such a good thing after all. If rates were held too low for too long, warned Rajan, the risk of financial instability would be greatly heightened, a concern Weidmann shares. Unfortunately, that’s not the half of it.

    13
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China And Russia: Locked In Reluctant Embrace

    China’s economic activity is gradually reducing Russian influence in Central Asia. Despite that, shared authoritarian values keep the two countries closely aligned on many issues.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China Reshapes Asia

    In the last two years China has made a bold push to expand its influence in Asia, using both the carrot of well-funded infrastructure diplomacy and the stick of forceful assertion of territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. What explains this newly assertive foreign policy, and what are its effects likely to be? This special issue of the China Economic Quarterly tries to answer these questions.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Clearer Political Skies In Spain

    For the last three years Spain has been the poster child for the eurozone’s recovery. In its country report published yesterday, the European Commission described Spain’s growth as “robust, underpinned by sustained job creation, improved financing conditions, high confidence and low oil prices”. Yet not everything in the Spanish garden is rosy. The manufacturing PMI suggests the recovery is facing severe challenges, having slowed from a cyclical...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Good Enough In Turkey

    Investors have welcomed last weekend’s victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) founded by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey’s elections, with the lira and equities both rallying strongly. After June’s inconclusive poll failed to produce a workable government, the concern was that a country with huge economic, security and strategic challenges would become ungovernable. In this context, the election result was the best that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Good Enough In Turkey

    Investors have welcomed last weekend’s victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) founded by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey’s elections, with the lira and equities both rallying strongly. After June’s inconclusive poll failed to produce a workable government, the concern was that a country with huge economic, security and strategic challenges would become ungovernable. In this context, the election result was the best that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Fight Against Europe’s Inflation Skeptics

    In recent conversations with Europe-based clients we have been struck by a rising tide of “inflation skepticism”. While many investors back in 2009-2011 fretted that monetary activism must lead to spiraling inflation, many now believe the exact opposite. Their fear is that irrespective of central bank action, inflation is doomed to stay below target. In just a few years, inflation has stopped being commonly thought of as “always and everywhere a...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: A Possible Return Of US Inflation

    The Gavekal Monthly outlines our highest conviction ideas and summarizes the key economic, market and thematic views held by the firm’s partners and analysts. This report is an attempt to answer a question that we are often asked, but find it hard to answer: "What does Gavekal think?".

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Middle-East Machinations

    Russia and Turkey are increasingly at loggerheads as Moscow escalates its military engagement in Syria. Earlier this month Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to find another gas supplier after Russian jets breached its air space, and in recent days Ankara initiated legal action against Gazprom over the price it is charged for piped gas.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar Audio And Slides

    We held our main fall seminar on October 27 in London, where Anatole Kaletsky, Francois-Xavier Chauchat, Neil Newman, Tom Miller and Louis-Vincent Gave presented their views on the global economy. Anatole discussed the implications of recent developments in financial markets; Francois examined Europe’s resilience to global headwinds; Neil outlined three major investment themes in Japan; Tom explored China’s regional foreign policy ambitions, and...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Why The Ruble Rally May Be Over

    Global investors are bulled up on Russian financial assets with the ruble having outperformed most emerging market currencies since the “junk rally” got going in early September. On a YTD basis Russian bonds have outpaced those from other big EMs. As a result, dedicated Russian funds last month saw a big inflow for the first time in a year. Certainly, the shift in sentiment has been spurred by the Federal Reserve delaying any interest rate move...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Promise Of A More Forceful ECB

    The signal could hardly have been clearer. Although the European Central Bank chose to hold its fire yesterday, bank president Mario Draghi made it plain that he will be prepared to wheel out even bigger weaponry at December’s meeting to overcome the deflationary forces pressing on the eurozone’s economy. If necessary, this could include extending the current quantitative easing program beyond next September, increasing the ECB’s monthly asset...

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  • Gavekal Research

    The Myth Of Secular Stagnation

    When the European Central Bank meets today, discussion will center on whether it should expand quantitative easing in an attempt to stave off deflation and support the eurozone’s painfully slow growth. In Japan too, talk is about whether the Bank of Japan needs to step up its stimulus efforts. And in the US, the Federal Reserve last month decided to delay calling an end to its own zero interest rate policy amid evidence that US growth is in...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

    Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar

    This is the full recording from Gavekal's October Hong Kong seminar featuring Joyce Poon, Andrew Batson and Anatole Kaletsky as well as a Q&A session.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Will The ECB Opt For QE-Plus?

    When the governing council of the European Central Bank convenes this Thursday in the Maltese capital Valetta, the assembled policymakers will be forced to contemplate a track record of quantitative easing that at best can be described as “mixed”. True, since the ECB announced its €60bn a month program of asset purchases in March this year, eurozone activity has staged a modest comeback, with growth expected to rise to 1.6% in the third quarter...

    0
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