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E.g., 24-06-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    The Future Of Money

    A month ago, Mt Gox was leading the charge as the biggest exchange for bitcoins, a hopeful new digital currency. Now it is the young currency’s biggest threat. The immediate question is, will bitcoin survive this heavy confidence blow? We should know in the coming weeks, but either way, the bigger question will remain: Does bitcoin, or any other digital currency, have what it takes to become a widely adopted money?

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    No Building, No Tapering?

    The main message from the minutes of the January FOMC meeting was summed up yesterday by San Francisco Fed President John Williams, who said in a TV interview that the “hurdle is pretty high on changing the pace of the step-downs in our [asset] purchases.” But if the economic data does not improve soon, we might just find out how high is “pretty high.”

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: A Little Late For Early Cyclicals

    US consumer discretionary stocks are considered “early cyclicals” because they tend to outperform in the first two or three years of the cycle. This time around, the firms that make everything from iPhones to automobiles have outperformed for nearly five years! Are we really still in the early part of this cycle? Or are we starting to see signs of fatigue in an overextended rally? The sector is down –2.4% year to date, finally underperforming...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Continuity-Of Bad Policy

    It was a busy day on Capitol Hill yesterday. In a notable departure from the budget battles of recent years, the Republican-controlled House passed a clean debt ceiling bill to fund the Treasury for the next thirteen months (despite the fact that Paul Ryan voted against funding the budget he himself negotiated). Meanwhile, the House Financial Services Committee gave Janet Yellen her first opportunity as the new chair of the Federal Reserve to...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The ECB Readying For Stealth QE?

    The European Central Bank has a reputation for holding firepower until the eurozone is at the point of crisis. Although no crisis is apparent now, growing deflationary concerns compounded by volatile money market interest rates make today's ECB meeting worth watching.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: What Might Lead Yellen To Pause Tapering?

    As capital flees emerging markets, some foreign policymakers have begged the Federal Reserve to go easy with the tapering. Sorry guys. If Janet Yellen is anything like her predecessors such pleas will fall on deaf ears. (Just as foreign pleas a few years ago, to stop fueling global inflationary flames with the same QE programs, cut little mustard). But Yellen will be intently watching the bond market.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: The Yield Spread Matters For Profit Margins

    With US corporate profit margins at extreme highs, investors are on high alert for the dreaded “mean reversion.” One concern has been that after years of benefitting from extremely low interest rates, margins are going to fall as rates normalize. We don’t buy it.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Deflation In 2014? Not In The US

    Curse words attract attention, as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde knows after dropping the D-bomb yesterday. Amidst her fairly balanced outlook for the global economy in 2014, it was her comments on deflation that attracted all the media attention:

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: What Is Normal In 2014?

    After years of extremes, we begin this year with many of our indicators back at normal levels. Perhaps most importantly, households have deleveraged. To be sure, income and wealth inequality remain an issue, but a steep decline in debt and a dramatic rebound in asset prices has put aggregate leverage on household balance sheets back to levels seen in the 1990s (see Is The Deleveraging Over?).

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    US Government Spending, Recent Past And Near Future

    The US looks to have reached a fiscal détente this week in the shape of a bipartisan mini-budget deal brokered by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray. The package will allow for a small rise in government spending next year, but its main effect will be to avert another Washington showdown and potential government closure for at least two years.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - Look To Asia, Tapering Or Not

    In our previous Quarterly, we argued that investors should consider increasing their exposure to the emerging markets, and Asia in particular. The logic being that the taper tantrum sell-off in the summer was overly violent and that the valuation gap with the developed markets had grown too wide. Since then, our conviction on Asia has hardened. One reason for this is China, where a pretty decisive supply-side reform agenda has emerged in the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    What More Can The ECB Do?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Good News Is Good News

    US growth data is looking up. Despite the government shutdown, manufacturing PMIs have now provided back-to-back positive surprises in both October and November. In fact, outside France and Spain, most PMIs around the globe are rising. But you wouldn’t know it by looking at your Bloomberg screens.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    On Profits: There Will Be No Revolution

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: A Shale Boost To Downstream Earnings

    So far it has been business as usual this earnings season, with companies managing to squeeze reasonably decent profits out of lackluster sales. In the few areas where we did see surprises, the shale gas revolution was a factor.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Can We Keep Climbing The Wall Of Worry?

    Data was mixed, Washington remained dysfunctional, but corporate earnings were decent and the Fed stayed incontinent. Despite this muddled state of affairs, equities made new highs. So it was another normal week in the US, but did we learn anything new?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    How Slack Is The US Labor Market?

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    Brace For US Disappointments

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Fed To Ease While Tightening

    While no major policy changes are expected at next week’s FOMC meeting, the market will leave no tea leaf unturned in the run-up. One action already garnering attention is the Federal Reserve’s testing of a new operation—the overnight fixed-rate reverse repo facility. This is an interesting new lever that the Fed may pull during its exit. It is worth understanding the context and rationale behind this new tool.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Thinking The Unthinkable

    Hitting the debt ceiling is unlikely, but quite possible. This raises the unthinkable prospect that the US might default on its debt, thereby removing the pillar upon which rests the modern global credit system, the current reserve currency, and arguably the whole fiat money system—namely, the full faith and credit of the US government.

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