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E.g., 24-06-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Hello Stagflation?

    Inflation’s back. In April US CPI rose to 2% YoY with both goods and services making a meaningful contribution. Manufacturers are starting to report higher output prices according to business surveys by the Philadelphia Fed and the NFIB, a small business representative body. After a weak GDP growth in 1Q14, mutterings of “stagflation” can be heard in the bear camp. But is this really what the data suggests?

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The End Is In Sight For Zero US Rates

    US inflation is rebounding. Both goods and services prices increased in April, pushing the CPI up to 2% YoY after nearly a year below the Federal Reserve's target. Pressure is coming from housing rents and, lately, from the rebound in commodities. Businesses are also raising prices as wage growth squeezes margins, and better off consumers prove willing to pay more. This could be viewed as just the rebound in real activity and inflation that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Time To Sell Treasuries

    The benchmark 10-year treasury yield has traded sideways in a range from 2.5% to 3% since the taper tantrum of last summer. Now it is threatening to break out on the downside. If you expect a collapse in yields, you should load up on bonds and sell everything else. We don’t.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Fat Margins, Thin Growth Prospects

    With more than 450 of the S&P 500’s constituents having reported first quarter earnings, investors were sufficiently happy with the outcome of the results season to bid the index up to a new record close of 1,897 on Monday. In aggregate, the story told by first quarter earnings was more of the same—extraordinary margins, but lackluster growth. As a result, the pessimists expecting a collapse in growth or a mean reversion in margins have been...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: A Rotation Into Value, Not Defensives

    Since mid March, we have seen a drastic rotation into value stocks. Clearly, investors are starting to rethink the kind of multiples they are willing to buy into.

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (30 April 2014)

    In the latest bi-weekly review of global economics and investment, Arthur Kroeber considers the implications of Asian deflation. Will Denyer & Tan Kai Xian consider the strong rental market for US homes and wonder what this means for the broader housing sector. Nick Andrews looks up close at reduced liquidity in the eurozone’s financial system. Chen Long looks at a favorable convergence between national GDP numbers and the growth claims made...

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    Gavekal Research

    What Ails The Dollar

    A curious brew of cheap money, a grinding cyclical recovery and “new economy” verisimilitude has helped drive Wall Street to new highs. And yet even as equity investors have scaled the wall of worry, the dollar has remained uninspired. The unit arguably started a structural upswing in 2008 but the recent performance has been lackluster with the DXY index at the bottom of its trading range.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    5C United States: Fed Targets + Weak Global Inflation = Rising Rents

    The US housing market has had a rough time recently—first mortgage rates rose then an extreme winter hit. So don’t expect residential construction to be a positive contributor to first quarter GDP growth (out Thursday). But how will the housing market fare going forward? Our bet is that it won’t be too bad.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (16 April 2014)

    In the latest bi-weekly review of global economics and investment, Charles Gave explains why it still pays to run a balanced portfolio, despite the market’s rotation. Will Denyer argues that outlook for US consumption remains favorable, even though consumer cyclicals have taken a beating. François-Xavier Chauchat examines the reasons behind the euro’s persistent strength. Andrew Batson looks at Beijing’s new focus on jobs and finds the...

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    Gavekal Research

    Buy The Dip, With A 30y UST Hedge

    Imagine that a colleague has just returned from a one-month holiday and asks for an update. You start by telling him two things: 1) US consumer discretionary stocks have fallen -5% MoM; and 2) the yield on the 30-year US treasury bond broke below 3.5% last night, re-crossing that threshold for the first time since yields rose during the ‘taper tantrum’ last summer.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: The Consumer Defies Market Jitters

    Vexed US commentators have been on tenterhooks to see whether soft US growth data really could be blamed on the weather. The worry was that the winter shivers had obscured an underlying deterioration in the US outlook. In fact, an enlivened US consumer tells us that it was a temporary weather-related soft patch.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of Fed Talk & Actions

    Is the Federal Open Markets Committee playing games? Should we listen to what it says or watch what it does? Is it easing or tightening, dovish or hawkish? As the Fed moves from “all guns blazing” to a nuanced and gradual exit strategy, these questions are inevitable. We’ll do our best here to make sense of it all and chart the trajectory of US monetary policy.

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    Gavekal Research

    The US Consumer Must Lead

    Back in the depths of winter when the polar vortex was causing daily life in the US to grind to a halt, we looked forward to March and April data and mused that the US economy might rebound like a coiled spring. The hope was that pent up demand would allow the US economy finally to achieve escape velocity. The alternative was another false dawn as companies and households remained hunkered down (see The Ides Of March). This week has seen the...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: What To Make Of The Surge In C&I Loans?

    In a surprising turn of events, US bank loan growth has bounced back, posting the strongest growth since 2008. After decelerating from annual growth rates of around 5% in 2012 to less than 2% last year, bank loans jumped in the first quarter of this year at an annualized rate of 9.3%. Leading the charge was a 17.5% annualized rise in commercial & industrial loans. Several clients have asked what we make of it.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The Automobile? Not So Fast

    US auto sales have had a strong run and are nearly back on their pre-crisis trend. This is hardly surprising since Americans have long shown a willingness to scrimp on life’s essentials rather than give up their vehicles—through the 1930s depression they kept on driving even while relying on soup kitchens for nutrition. But how much juice is left in this purring engine of US consumption?

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    Gavekal Research

    Fannie-ing The Flames Of A US Housing Downturn?

    The US housing recovery has had a rough run in the past nine months. First there was the taper tantrum, that drove up mortgage rates. Then the record cold winter interfered with sales and construction, highlighted once again by yesterday’s poor home sales data for February. Between the normalization of housing affordability and the extreme weather in January and February, we can expect housing construction to provide another negative...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: What If The Fed's BS Doesn't Shrink?

    The Federal Reserve’s publicly stated exit strategy has one element that is unsettling for any investor who cares to look that far ahead. The Fed calls this element a “normalization” but that mild word does little to mask the harsh reality: we are talking about the biggest contraction of a central bank balance sheet the world has ever seen.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - Weathering The EM Slowdown

    The emerging markets are the main contributors to global growth today, and without their momentum, the expansion in world GDP growth since 2008 would have sunk below 3% a year. Now, however, just as developed markets are finding their feet, the EM universe is stumbling.

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    Gavekal Research

    It's All Good In America, And All Bad In China

    “By three methods we may learn wisdom: First by reflection, which is noblest. Second, by imitation, which is easiest. And third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius.

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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Balancing The Risks On Margin Debt

    US investors have leveraged up their portfolios like never before. Equity margin debt levels exceed the lofty peaks of the 2000 tech boom and the 2007 credit bubble. With more of the market posted as collateral, the risk is ever greater that moderate selloffs become exaggerated by margin calls and forced selling.

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